Christian Yelich

[Pugger]

Repeat of last September could be brewing with this Guy. And since our offense is so banged up, that might be the “carry the team on his shoulders” finish that gets him his 2nd straight MVP.

 

Unless we make the playoffs I doubt he'll win it this year. IMO he is the MVP. The other teams with leading MVP candidates would still be winning if they weren't playing at a ridiculous level. However, many of those who vote for baseball's MVPs lean towards the guy on a winning team. This year the AL winner will be Trout because he is so head and shoulders above the rest of that field in the AL.

[TURBO]

I was really hoping he'd make it to 50 home runs...He still can, but he needs to get hot.

 

A 50/30 season would be remarkable!

[RollieTime]

He would be the 2nd player in MLB history with a 45/35 season if he does fall short of 50 home runs, but gets a few more stolen bases. Only other player to do that is Alfonso Soriano.

[Ennder]

All this talk about 50/30 reminds me of a childhood favorite, Eric Davis, and just how close he was to being a 30/80 guy and a 40/60 guy in 86 and 87. He just couldn't stay healthy.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/daviser01.shtml

 

I approve of this message! My profile picture is Eric Davis in case you can't tell since it can be hard to see .

[DuWayne Steurer]

All this talk about 50/30 reminds me of a childhood favorite, Eric Davis, and just how close he was to being a 30/80 guy and a 40/60 guy in 86 and 87. He just couldn't stay healthy.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/daviser01.shtml

 

I approve of this message! My profile picture is Eric Davis in case you can't tell since it can be hard to see .

 

My 3 brothers and I used to play strat o matic draft leagues with the 87 set, and I always made sure I got Eric Davis first. He was an absolute monster in 87.

[Jenkins5]

Brewers have not really helped Yelich for winning back to back MVPs. No matter how amazing you are, hard to win MVP on a middle tier team unless you are just that far superior. My guess is it has to go to Bellinger due to being closest to Yelich & being on a historical great team. Yeli really needs to get hot to end season to separate more from Bellinger to overcome probably missing playoffs. Help if Bellinger batting average continues to plummet rest of the month as well

[DuWayne Steurer]

Thing is there really isn't separation between Yelich and Bellinger. Yelich has a slightly higher BA/OPS and some stolen bases, but Bellinger is a superior defender.

 

B/R has Bellinger over Yelich 8.3 WAR to 7.0, and Fangraphs has Yelich over Bellinger 7.5 WAR to 7.3

 

I'm not saying that the MVP should be handed out based on WAR, but I just don't think that Yelich is clearly a superior player to Bellinger. If Yelich was still up in the 1.150 OPS range, I think this would be a different discussion, but he "slumped" with only a .939 OPS and 5 homeruns.

[MrTPlush]

I don’t know when it became a trend to call a guy more valuable because he makes his team good and a guy isn’t as valuable because his team would be good without him...but, what?

 

Who adds the most value to his team? Who? That is what should matter...maybe being in the postseason sways it for people past that. But outside of that? No, just no. Stop the madness that Bellinger should get docked because he takes a team from good to elite or whatever it is instead of sub .500 to .500.

 

If Yelich adds 10 wins and Bellinger adds 11 Bellinger should win. Why does it matter that Yelich takes us from 75 to 85 and Bellinger takes his team from 100 to 111?

[Jenkins5]

I don’t know when it became a trend to call a guy more valuable because he makes his team good and a guy isn’t as valuable because his team would be good without him...but, what?

 

Who adds the most value to his team? Who? That is what should matter...maybe being in the postseason sways it for people past that. But outside of that? No, just no. Stop the madness that Bellinger should get docked because he takes a team from good to elite or whatever it is instead of sub .500 to .500.

 

If Yelich adds 10 wins and Bellinger adds 11 Bellinger should win. Why does it matter that Yelich takes us from 75 to 85 and Bellinger takes his team from 100 to 111?

 

Again.... Yeli & Bellinger are pretty close. If two are close, voters often will vote for one whose team was better. They don’t vote on WAR alone as you’d like. Don’t know where you are getting idea that anyone thinks they should dock Belly for being on better team....that clearly makes him front runner for the award. That’s the way voters often view it. For Yeli to win award he needs to not be close to Belly but separate offensively over next month. He needs to clearly be more valuable offensively to offset Belly’s superior D & being best player on best team in baseball. They have been neck and neck offensively all season. You can cherry pick stats to make legit case for both.

 

You can claim that wins created is only thing that matters but that isn’t reality. Believe only 7 players since 95 (48 winners in that span) have won without making playoffs and almost all those guys were just on different planet statistically than all other players. Bonds twice, ARod in 03, Trout & Harper. Those guys had no one in league on their level. So again, if Yeli & Bellinger are still close & Brewers are not a playoff team, I don’t see him getting the votes needed. He needs to separate and be clear cut the best player in NL. Luckily Bellinger has been slumping as of late opening door for Yeli to do so. Him leading Brewers from behind to playoffs like he did last year will weigh nicely to voters as well

[MrTPlush]

#1 Because someone literally said it in this thread and it surely isn’t the first time someone has made the claim.

 

#2 I was never, at any point, speaking for how voters typically vote. I’m very aware how they vote...and it certainly does not dock a guy for being on an elite team. However it is becoming more and more popular for people to say it should be that way. Docking a guy for being in a nine postseason team is questionable enough...docking a guy for his team being too good? Wowza

[Jenkins5]

#1 Because someone literally said it in this thread and it surely isn’t the first time someone has made the claim.

 

#2 I was never, at any point, speaking for how voters typically vote. I’m very aware how they vote...and it certainly does not dock a guy for being on an elite team. However it is becoming more and more popular for people to say it should be that way. Docking a guy for being in a nine postseason team is questionable enough...docking a guy for his team being too good? Wowza

 

That makes more sense now what you are saying. Yeah that makes zero sense to me to dock a guy for being on best team. Basically to me, Bellinger right now is Giannis and Yelich is Harden. Bellinger is best player on best team & putting up elite numbers on both sides of ball ( O & D). Harden like Yelich is probably the best offensive weapon in baseball (beside Trout but he’s in AL) but is not incredible on D and is on a lesser team. Both are legit MVPs. In no way should Giannis or Bellinger be docked for playing on top team. That’s crazy because they are large reason for it. Like Harden, Yelich can’t overcome the top dawg on top team votes and defensive importance votes unless he is clear as day superior & more dominant offensively. Harden wasn’t able to convince enough voters to overlook he didn’t lead team to top seed & he was inferior defensively. Yelich has same hurdle. He doesn’t save a ton of runs defensively & he hasn’t led his team to be a top contender.

 

Where this reasoning is faulty though is in basketball 1 player has far more impact on a games outcome than in baseball.

[Ennder]

At the end of the day someone is going to win NL MVP this year and 2-5 other guys will miss out on the award even though their seasons were good enough to be an MVP. There is no real separation here. Voters are probably going to favor guys who make the playoffs, guys who have crazy good final months and to be honest will probably dock Yelich a bit because he won it last year and some voters don't like giving it to repeats.

[Jenkins5]

Think Bellinger, Yelich, Marte, Rendon are in a clear 4 man race.

 

All 4 have had great seasons and are by most measures the tier 1 offensive guys in NL. Media is in love with Bellinger & Yelich. Rightfully so and offensively Yelich is the best offensively in 19’ but those guys are right there. For whatever reason Rendon is always outstanding but gets little love and national attention. If you don’t look up the stats, you really don’t hear how great he has been. Marte is young and has made strides each year & took huge leap this year. Being on Dbacks he doesn’t get enough attention as well. If you give Acuna Jr either Rendon’s or Marte’s stats I think media & voters would fill up 1st place ballots. Voters have a bias to the bigger name guys.

 

My prediction as of today would be

1. Bellinger

2. Yelich

3. Rendon

4. Marte

5. Acuna

6. Soto

7. Arenado

8. Alonso

9. Donald

10. Story

 

In AL

1. Trout

2-10 doesn’t matter.... it’s Trout & only Trout ([sarcasm]so happy Brewers got robbed by Former comp system & Brewers getting Arnett instead of Trout[/sarcasm]

[djoctagone]

it's looking very likely that christian yelich will win his second consecutive national league batting title.

[RollieTime]

Since we’ve been talking a lot about a Yelich extension, I thought it would be good to bump this thread.

 

This is an extension that I feel like would work for both sides.

 

7 year contract for $180 million that overrides his 3/$41.5 million remaining.

 

2020: $18 million

2021: $22 million

2022: $26 million

2023: $27 million

2024: $28 million

2025: $29 million

2026: $30 million

 

He turns his $41.5 million prior to free agency into $66 million, while also locking in an additional 4 years and $114 million. The Brewers lock him up long term, while still keeping 2 years of relatively cheap pay for his production and get a little bit of a discount on the overall value of the deal. This also only goes through his age 34 season, hopefully helping the Brewers avoid a big drop off in production on the back part of the deal.

[MrTPlush]

Yelich is going to hit FA at a fantastic age primed for a mega deal. He is not going to take a deal that takes him to an awkward age 34. He won't get a huge deal then and he could really drop off by then. There is such little risk for Yelich at this point. He isn't risk free...but it isn't like he has chronic issues (like a Stanton for instance).

 

Either pay up or lose him. That is the likely situation.

[owbc]

Since we’ve been talking a lot about a Yelich extension, I thought it would be good to bump this thread.

 

This is an extension that I feel like would work for both sides.

 

7 year contract for $180 million that overrides his 3/$41.5 million remaining.

 

2020: $18 million

2021: $22 million

2022: $26 million

2023: $27 million

2024: $28 million

2025: $29 million

2026: $30 million

 

He turns his $41.5 million prior to free agency into $66 million, while also locking in an additional 4 years and $114 million. The Brewers lock him up long term, while still keeping 2 years of relatively cheap pay for his production and get a little bit of a discount on the overall value of the deal. This also only goes through his age 34 season, hopefully helping the Brewers avoid a big drop off in production on the back part of the deal.

 

The next contract has to be a career buyout. I'm thinking it would take $300 million but perhaps throwing a couple more years on your idea would make for a reasonable initial offer:

 

2027: $31 million

2028: $32 million

2029: $33 million

 

10/$275 million

 

In related news, the Brewers are not going to offer Yelich a contract.

[KeithStone53151]

I tend to agree, hard to imagine Yelich staying in Milwaukee if he continues to perform at 2019/2020 levels.

[Warning Track Power]

Since we’ve been talking a lot about a Yelich extension, I thought it would be good to bump this thread.

 

This is an extension that I feel like would work for both sides.

 

7 year contract for $180 million that overrides his 3/$41.5 million remaining.

 

2020: $18 million

2021: $22 million

2022: $26 million

2023: $27 million

2024: $28 million

2025: $29 million

2026: $30 million

 

He turns his $41.5 million prior to free agency into $66 million, while also locking in an additional 4 years and $114 million. The Brewers lock him up long term, while still keeping 2 years of relatively cheap pay for his production and get a little bit of a discount on the overall value of the deal. This also only goes through his age 34 season, hopefully helping the Brewers avoid a big drop off in production on the back part of the deal.

Putting my thoughts on the matter into this thread from the Nolan Arenado Transactions thread:

 

The only way a Yelich extension makes sense is for him to get new money in 2020, 2021 and 2022 and the only way it makes sense for the Brewers to extend is if it adds about 3 years to the end of the current deal. In other words, Yelich is currently signed for 3 years $41.5 million. If the Brewers were to offer a 3 year extension for say $150 million, but were able to spread that additional $150 million over the next six years instead of the last three, Yelich's contract would become 6 years $191.5 million. Yelich gets new money over the next three years and an annual salary on par with Harper, Machado, etc. The Brewers get Yelich for three additional years.

[jerichoholicninja]

Sorry, he's as good as gone. Enjoy him while you can. Stearns aint paying top dollar for the backend of anyone's career.

[RollieTime]

Since we’ve been talking a lot about a Yelich extension, I thought it would be good to bump this thread.

 

This is an extension that I feel like would work for both sides.

 

7 year contract for $180 million that overrides his 3/$41.5 million remaining.

 

2020: $18 million

2021: $22 million

2022: $26 million

2023: $27 million

2024: $28 million

2025: $29 million

2026: $30 million

 

He turns his $41.5 million prior to free agency into $66 million, while also locking in an additional 4 years and $114 million. The Brewers lock him up long term, while still keeping 2 years of relatively cheap pay for his production and get a little bit of a discount on the overall value of the deal. This also only goes through his age 34 season, hopefully helping the Brewers avoid a big drop off in production on the back part of the deal.

 

The next contract has to be a career buyout. I'm thinking it would take $300 million but perhaps throwing a couple more years on your idea would make for a reasonable initial offer:

 

2027: $31 million

2028: $32 million

2029: $33 million

 

10/$275 million

 

In related news, the Brewers are not going to offer Yelich a contract.

 

My only argument is that you’re basically paying market value for him in your deal, which wouldn’t make much sense for the Brewers to even look at doing right now.

 

I don’t see any team that is going to give Yelich a deal through his age 40 season at all. He might even have an issue getting a 7 year deal in free agency at 31 and that’s if he maintains his remarkable run the last couple season. He’s also coming off a significant injury and might want to lock in almost $200 million and know where he will be long term. He has also had multiple back injuries.

 

If he wants to make more money now, he will need to give a discount to the Brewers. Him getting an additional $25 million or so the next 3 years that isn’t part of his contract, while adding another $114 million guaranteed or so isn’t too bad of a proposal. I don’t see it as a discount if he’s making $30+ million into his age 36 and 37 seasons in Milwaukee. That looks like paying market value and adding a ton of risk on the backend of the deal. I could maybe see an additional year in the deal I proposed to take him through his age 35 season. But anything beyond that just isn’t wise in my opinion at all. That would already be an 8 year deal as it sits today.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Sorry, he's as good as gone. Enjoy him while you can. Stearns aint paying top dollar for the backend of anyone's career.

 

You're right, but if the Brewers have any advantage it's that they can pay him more right now by buying out the seasons he's already under contract. There's no chance at all of the Brewers signing him if he enters FA. There's maybe a 5% chance if they decide he's worth it and front-load it now, giving him huge raises in the next two seasons in exchange for him knowing he's making less than he would have had he gone into FA.

 

But I don't think he'll do that either. Maybe if for some reason he's in love with Milwaukee. I know he likes it, but I doubt he likes it more than he'd like a number of places.

 

The other thing to remember is that Yelich really isn't that young, and already took that hometown team bargain once. So he'll be going into FA at 30, not like he's 26. Anyone that signs him knows there's going to be a big drop off at the end of that deal. If it's the right team, they won't care.

 

So I agree that he's as good as gone. But that's the only sliver of a chance he stays.

[brewcrewdue80]

It's premature to want to give him an extension post Knee Cap injury isn't it? how much value does he lose if he becomes an under 10 closer to 5 SB runner a season? What if his defense takes a turn for the worse with less speed or lack of ability sliding or even diving for a ball? How is his arm velocity with push off from his knees and legs making a throw? How does his lower body react while making a swing? I mean think about that. His throwing motion will be coming following through on his right leg. His batting stance and swing through rotate around his right knee and leg. Sliding in to a base is that with his right leg going in to the bag? Does he push off the right leg first as he goes to steal a base? Wouldn't it just fit the Brewers luck that he returns a forever worse player?

 

I mentioned somewhere before, I think for Yelich his extension with Miami fit perfectly for him to go to FA for a contract that finishes off his career. He should test the FA market unless my concerns noted above become a truth and he's just a 2-3WAR player vs where he reached these last 2 seasons.

[wildcat2237]

Sorry, he's as good as gone. Enjoy him while you can. Stearns aint paying top dollar for the backend of anyone's career.

 

I 100% agree with this. No way Stearns pays what it would take to keep Yelich.

 

He is in his prime now and by 2023 will be in his declining years.

 

Assuming he keeps up production he will be traded to replenish the farm after 2021 or during 2022.

 

We are very much in the middle of a "Yelich window," which is why I am less than thrilled with the possible shrinking payroll.

[TJseven7]

His last extension acquired the money he needed to be set for life.

The only reason to sign a new contract is for top or near top dollar on the FA market.

 

You don't do 2 sweetheart extensions after the 1st one cost you a lot of money in the long run.

 

Guys going to get paid insanely well. Congrats to him for that, he deserves it. The pieces that were traded for him are very unlikely to amount to the value 5 years of him was worth. That's over the entire life of their controlled MLB careers, combined.