Christian Yelich

[RollieTime]

Bellinger was hitting about .400 through the first 50 games of the year. In the last 60 games, his average has dropped to .325. Obviously he wasn’t going to hit .400 all season, but what has he been hitting the last 60 games to drop it that much? .260-.270? If he continues to hit at that pace and finishes with an average under .300, I think Yelich would have a pretty strong case if he finishes around .340. Especially if he finishes with 50+ homers and 30+ stolen bases.

[OldHeidelberg]

In a close race I agree the 2 years in a row thing works against Yelich as much as the team record does. He needs to have a finish like last year to remove all doubt, I would say another batting title along with the HR title will make him tough to pass on.

[MrTPlush]

Bellinger's splits are quite possibly some of the most incredible splits I have ever seen. If his production was a pie and you cut it in half you wouldn't see a difference using a ruler. Almost every single stat (walks and strikeouts included) are almost a mirror image if the PAs for each was the same.

 

His OPS difference between the two: 0.003

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Yelich has no chance. He is assured of finishing 2nd place. At this point it doesn't matter if the Brewers get a Wild Card the MVP is not coming off this team when Bellinger's team is winning 100+. He would have had to just CLEARLY dominated Bellinger to win it again. I'm talking beat him in homers by 15 and hit 40 points higher. Any benefit of the doubt is going to Bellinger.

[tmwiese55]

Yelich has no chance. He is assured of finishing 2nd place. At this point it doesn't matter if the Brewers get a Wild Card the MVP is not coming off this team when Bellinger's team is winning 100+. He would have had to just CLEARLY dominated Bellinger to win it again. I'm talking beat him in homers by 15 and hit 40 points higher. Any benefit of the doubt is going to Bellinger.

 

Generally agree. Bellinger would need to seriously fall off to finish the year for this to happen. Which could happen with 2 months to go. But as long as he's close he'll win. There's a long precedent for it. Just look at Trout's whole career

[adambr2]

I would agree with the previous two posters UNLESS Yelich wins the Triple Crown. I think that would be a huge factor with some voters.

 

If it's close, and Yelich doesn't win triple crown, Bellinger is going to win. His team is much better, and it doesn't hurt that he can play all over the OF and 1B.

[owbc]

A miraculous playoff push from the Brewers could also generate some votes for Yelich. The Dodgers have an 18 game lead in their division...nobody will be talking about them in September.

 

But yes, generally agreed that a "tie" goes to Bellinger.

[wntrtxn21]

Not even close. The only thing that will make him a lock for the MVP is the Triple Crown. The fact we are starting to circle the toilet it may be the only way to even win as missing the postseason pretty much kills any chance at the MVP. It is ridiculously close right now though. If we make it as a WC team I bet Bellinger would win because his team is better and Yelich won last year.

 

If Bellinger falls back 30-50 points in OPS while yelich maintains, that might do it also. It's truly a 2 horse race in my opinion. The triple crown actually appears somewhat attainable. He's only ahead in HR, but he's only 1 point behind in average and 5 rbi at the moment. A strong finish could get him there.

 

In my opinion 50-30 is amazing, but more of a fun fact elite stat. I just don't think it is going to get hyped. The Triple Crown is like the grand daddy of league domination. I can't see some with the later losing the MVP. I don't really like his chances though, the competition is way to dense in RBIs and to some extent AVG. If he pulls it off with all the competition any writer voting someone else should be smacked.

 

He is going to need a sizeable gap to win without the triple crown and missing the postseason. He is notably BEHIND Bellinger in WAR...not really a good look. Can't see him winning with a lower WAR and not in the postseason.

 

Yellich being behind anybody in WAR shows you what a joke war really is.

[adambr2]

I mean...Bellinger HAS been pretty equally amazing. It's not like it's a travesty or anything.

[owbc]

Yellich being behind anybody in WAR shows you what a joke war really is.

 

 

I think you meant to say it shows how great WAR is...

 

Anyway, they are essentially tied in WAR depending on if you use bWAR or fWAR and if you include dWAR or not. Which matches the dead heat in traditional stats.

[Lathund]

Yellich being behind anybody in WAR shows you what a joke war really is.

 

If anything here is a joke, it's that take.

[sveumrules]

Yellich being behind anybody in WAR shows you what a joke war really is.

 

According to FanGraphs Christian is only behind Trout, they've got him tied with Bellinger.

 

Their PAs are essentially equal (465 vs 470), their wRC+ are essentially equal (180 vs 178), Yelich has the edge in baserunning (+4.4 vs -0.3) while Cody has the edge in fielding (+7.5 vs +2.2 UZR).

 

BRef is essentially the same, but they use DRS for fielding which has Bellinger +17, so that accounts for the 1 WAR edge he currently has over Christian there.

[MrTPlush]

Every time I see someone call WAR a joke I have to wonder the percentage of said people that probably couldn’t even tell you what goes into WAR. I bet it is at least 75%.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Yellich being behind anybody in WAR shows you what a joke war really is.

 

According to FanGraphs Christian is only behind Trout, they've got him tied with Bellinger.

 

Their PAs are essentially equal (465 vs 470), their wRC+ are essentially equal (180 vs 178), Yelich has the edge in baserunning (+4.4 vs -0.3) while Cody has the edge in fielding (+7.5 vs +2.2 UZR).

 

BRef is essentially the same, but they use DRS for fielding which has Bellinger +17, so that accounts for the 1 WAR edge he currently has over Christian there.

 

 

Not a huge fan of the formula Bref uses for DRS... but it kind of is what it is. Yelich is a good, not great fielder.

[Baldkin]

How many wins do the Brewers have without Yelich?

 

3. Maybe 4.

[Eye Black]

Yelich is on the verge of becoming the 19th player in Major League Baseball history to achieve a 40+ HR and 20+ SB season (list link), some of those other 18 did it multiple times.

 

Yelich has a real shot at becoming the first player in MLB history to record 50+ home runs and 30+ steals in a season. He is currently at 39 HR and 23 SB with 47 games remaining.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

It would be more surprising if he didn't get the 50/30 IMO.

[Baldkin]

All this talk about 50/30 reminds me of a childhood favorite, Eric Davis, and just how close he was to being a 30/80 guy and a 40/60 guy in 86 and 87. He just couldn't stay healthy.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/daviser01.shtml

[MrTPlush]

Shout out to Ryan Braun who was once a 40-30 guy. I think only 8 or so are on that list and it includes quite the names.

[sveumrules]

How many wins do the Brewers have without Yelich?

 

3. Maybe 4.

 

We are 7-6 in the games Yelich didn't start this season.

[RollieTime]

Christian Yelich is the first player with a 40 homer/20 stolen base season in MLB since 2012 when, you guessed it, Ryan Braun accomplished the feat.

[ThisIsMyCrew]

His stats are even more remarkable seeing as he’s missed about 10% of the Brewers games.

[Baldkin]

Yelich is on the verge of becoming the 19th player in Major League Baseball history to achieve a 40+ HR and 20+ SB season (list link), some of those other 18 did it multiple times.

 

Yelich has a real shot at becoming the first player in MLB history to record 50+ home runs and 30+ steals in a season. He is currently at 39 HR and 23 SB with 47 games remaining.

 

25 games left, if he plays in all of them and keeps up his current HR pace (per game played), he'll hit 9 more homers. and set the single season HR record for the Brewers.

 

He'd also steal 5 more bases and give himself a 50/30 season.

[Pugger]

All I know is we are blessed to have this talented player on our favorite team.

[Brew crew 92]

Repeat of last September could be brewing with this Guy. And since our offense is so banged up, that might be the “carry the team on his shoulders” finish that gets him his 2nd straight MVP.