Christian Yelich

[MrTPlush]

We have him locked up until he hits 30. Why not just let it play out and let him sign a humongous deal elsewhere when he's headed back down the hill?

 

Yelich strikes me at the kind of hitter who, barring injury, would age well.

If the Crew could get him to defer money - and sign a relatively team-friendly deal as Braun did - I think it would be good.

 

Yah, so was Braun when we extended him. Now he is made of glass and I think he uses his bat as a cane walking to the plate.

 

In all seriousness did we seriously not learn anything from the Braun extension? We extended a guy waaay before he would even hit free egency and it turned into a bad idea before that extension even kicked in. He had his little PED fiasco and then after that died down he had the thumb problem (among other constant injuries). All this before that extension even kicked in.

 

I don't think that contract will be an albatross, where his play doesn't even warrant a roster spot, but man we likely would have been way better off without the extension happening. If we didn't have him extended Khris Davis would still be here or Domingo Santana would still be roaming our OF. If you don't like either of those guys I am sure we could find someone to put up average offense for a lot less than $20mil a year.

 

I don't mind having Braun on the team and since he at least hits somewhat decently it isn't a painful extension...but pretty hard to argue we would probably get better production for half the cost or less elsewhere. Whether a different addition or someone we had, but traded away because we didn't have room. Lorenzo Cain for example had a similar cost through FA.

 

I want nothing to do with a Yelich extension this year, next year, and probably never. It just probably isn't a good idea.

[clancyphile]

I don't see the sense in extending him now. He's what, 27? His value is at an all-time high and I doubt it can get higher. You have four years of control and he is 31 at his next FA period. He can still get hurt or have any number of things go wrong that make him an easier extension down the road.

 

Sure, you might be able to lock him in long term and end up on top if he continues to be Barry Bonds for four years. We likely have him for the most productive chunk of his career already. He could age well, but these things just aren't guaranteed. It seems unnecessarily risky for the club at this point and more likely not to work out for them than to go well.

 

If not seven years, at least try to get three or four more.

 

Yelich is a very rare talent... and an extension turns the trade into a win for the Brewers.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

 

Yelich is a very rare talent... and an extension turns the trade into a win for the Brewers.

 

Um ... what? You don't consider it a win already?

[clancyphile]

 

Yelich is a very rare talent... and an extension turns the trade into a win for the Brewers.

 

Um ... what? You don't consider it a win already?

 

It's a probable win, but if Brinson, Diaz, Harrison, and Yamamoto become good assets for the Marlins, the deal gets closer to a draw.

 

Getting Yelich for another four years tips the balance more clearly in the Crew's favor, IMO.

[OldHeidelberg]

 

Yah, so was Braun when we extended him. Now he is made of glass and I think he uses his bat as a cane walking to the plate.

 

In all seriousness did we seriously not learn anything from the Braun extension? We extended a guy waaay before he would even hit free egency and it turned into a bad idea before that extension even kicked in. He had his little PED fiasco and then after that died down he had the thumb problem (among other constant injuries). All this before that extension even kicked in.

 

I don't think that contract will be an albatross, where his play doesn't even warrant a roster spot, but man we likely would have been way better off without the extension happening. If we didn't have him extended Khris Davis would still be here or Domingo Santana would still be roaming our OF. If you don't like either of those guys I am sure we could find someone to put up average offense for a lot less than $20mil a year.

 

I don't mind having Braun on the team and since he at least hits somewhat decently it isn't a painful extension...but pretty hard to argue we would probably get better production for half the cost or less elsewhere. Whether a different addition or someone we had, but traded away because we didn't have room. Lorenzo Cain for example had a similar cost through FA.

 

I want nothing to do with a Yelich extension this year, next year, and probably never. It just probably isn't a good idea.

 

Braun was always sort of beat up even in his prime years, it seemed like he was always playing through something and had to be shut down for a week or so every year, some have speculated the PEDs were about that rather than performance.

 

The extension hasn't been great but like you say not an albatross either. And at least for me it means something having one of our all time greats being a part of these contending teams. And we don't know the end yet, it's not that big of reach to think he could put up like 2 WAR each of the next 2 years which isn't playing too far under his salary. I don't disagree with you on not extending Yelich right now but I don't think the Braun contract really stands out as such a disaster that we have to avoid ever doing something like it again. They knew there was risk of not getting great seasons toward the end but rewarded a guy who was the face of the franchise at the time and looked like a future HOF.

[MrTPlush]

It is already a win. We did it to win now. The only way it could have been a loss is if Brinson turned into something similar to what Yelich did for us instantly. And since Yelich is Barry Bonds and Brinson so far has been a pile of dung it is pretty obvious we did good on our end. Hard to really say we won over the Marlins because each team did the trade for entirely different goals. And since the stories of the players have yet to be finished they didn't lose the trade yet on their end.

 

It is much like the Greinke trade, except in that case both teams won. We won then and the Royals won later on. Now, yes, we didn't win it all...but honestly I don't think that is the most appropriate way to grade win now trades. Or else most of the things we do (actually all of them) are terrible moves. Greinke improved us tenfold and now Yelich is improving us tenfold. Stellar moves that took are team from good to special. They gave us World Series contenders.

[clancyphile]

With the DH coming to the National League in the near future, I think the calculus changes. I think the Crew can afford to extend Yelich, because as a DH, he would have much less wear and tear in the later years.

[Lathund]

 

Yelich is a very rare talent... and an extension turns the trade into a win for the Brewers.

 

Um ... what? You don't consider it a win already?

 

It's a probable win, but if Brinson, Diaz, Harrison, and Yamamoto become good assets for the Marlins, the deal gets closer to a draw.

 

Getting Yelich for another four years tips the balance more clearly in the Crew's favor, IMO.

 

I don't really subscribe to this zero-sum theory of evaluating a trade. If Yelich keeps playing well, not even MVP level well but "only" 4-5 WAR, it's a win for the Brewers even if the guys we gave up become stars. Brewers wanted production starting in 2018 and several years going forward. Marlins didn't care about 2018 and 2019 but wanted production in the future. If teams get what they want from a trade, at a price they were willing to pay, it's a win no matter what the other side gets.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

We don't have the 2018 we did without Yelich, so it is already a great trade for us. I don't really care if all those guys become stars, that was an amazing, fun year.

 

My brother still argues with me to death that the Sabathia trade was bad because we mortgaged the farm. In his words it doesn't matter that LaPorta flamed out because we didn't know that at the time and therefore it was bad since we only got half a season of CC. It gives me a headache every time.

[MrTPlush]

With the DH coming to the National League in the near future, I think the calculus changes. I think the Crew can afford to extend Yelich, because as a DH, he would have much less wear and tear in the later years.

 

Our ability to afford Yelich is worsened by the DH. It is like adding another player to pay for.

[owbc]

I really wish the DH was already in the NL. We could have kept Domingo Santana around.

 

Looking at Braun's career, the Brewers have paid him about $2 million per 1 offensive WAR so I think they've gotten a pretty good deal overall. Braun has also remained productive and shows no signs of a steep decline.

 

If Yelich showed interest in extending you bet the Brewers will be at the table. But it doesn't seem like the best choice for either party right now given the unknowns in the CBA when any extension would kick in.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Yelich has already said he loves MKE and would love to get an extension. It's just unlikely since he did sign one with Miami and is sitting front row as Machado and Trout sign monster deals. He said he has no regrets, and that's believable, but it's also entirely reasonable and expected that he plans on getting his in a few years.

 

You hate to say this out loud, but depending on what's going on with the Brewers at the time, he is a likely trade candidate in the second to last or last year of that deal. You could probably get the kind of haul in return that cities like MKE need to stay competitive.

[owbc]

You hate to say this out loud, but depending on what's going on with the Brewers at the time, he is a likely trade candidate in the second to last or last year of that deal. You could probably get the kind of haul in return that cities like MKE need to stay competitive.

 

Based on recent trades (e.g. Goldschmidt) it seems unlikely that the Brewers could net large enough of a return to not only offset Yelich's value but also offset the negative PR that would come from trading the new face of the franchise. But as you say, who knows where the team will be in a couple years. I'm hoping for an Astros-like run of sustained success.

[Oxy]

You hate to say this out loud, but depending on what's going on with the Brewers at the time, he is a likely trade candidate in the second to last or last year of that deal. You could probably get the kind of haul in return that cities like MKE need to stay competitive.

 

Based on recent trades (e.g. Goldschmidt) it seems unlikely that the Brewers could net large enough of a return to not only offset Yelich's value but also offset the negative PR that would come from trading the new face of the franchise. But as you say, who knows where the team will be in a couple years. I'm hoping for an Astros-like run of sustained success.

 

On strictly superficial financial terms, Yelich should probably be traded before his contract is up. However, it seems like he is being groomed to become the face of the franchise (if he isn't already) and a future legend. There is value there beyond simple year-to-year WAR calculations.

[MrTPlush]

Looking at Braun's career, the Brewers have paid him about $2 million per 1 offensive WAR so I think they've gotten a pretty good deal overall.

 

I mean if that is what helps you rationalize a bad contract extension. I hear people say this all the time. They were separate transactions. You don't get to lump them together.

[MrTPlush]

You hate to say this out loud, but depending on what's going on with the Brewers at the time, he is a likely trade candidate in the second to last or last year of that deal. You could probably get the kind of haul in return that cities like MKE need to stay competitive.

 

Based on recent trades (e.g. Goldschmidt) it seems unlikely that the Brewers could net large enough of a return to not only offset Yelich's value but also offset the negative PR that would come from trading the new face of the franchise. But as you say, who knows where the team will be in a couple years. I'm hoping for an Astros-like run of sustained success.

 

However, it seems like he is being groomed to become the face of the franchise (if he isn't already) and a future legend.quote]

 

Okay lets pump the brakes a bit. He has one elite year. He needs like 3 more just to be on the Brewers mount Rushmore. It is exciting he started back up right where he left off last year though.

[Oxy]

 

However, it seems like he is being groomed to become the face of the franchise (if he isn't already) and a future legend.quote]

 

Okay lets pump the brakes a bit. He has one elite year. He needs like 3 more just to be on the Brewers mount Rushmore. It is exciting he started back up right where he left off last year though.

 

Of course. This isn't a franchise that just pumps out MVPs and 96 win seasons on the regular though. He isn't there yet, but it seems like he is being groomed to get there.

[tmwiese55]

I don't see the need to rush into an extension unless he gives a big time discount on it. As much as we can rip Braun's now, he did give a big time discount vs what he theoretically would've got in FA. If you can lock him in at 15-20 per year I mean yea do it, but if you're pumping out 30 mil per year anyway then what's the rush.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Looking at Braun's career, the Brewers have paid him about $2 million per 1 offensive WAR so I think they've gotten a pretty good deal overall.

 

I mean if that is what helps you rationalize a bad contract extension. I hear people say this all the time. They were separate transactions. You don't get to lump them together.

 

I'm pretty emotionally detached from these sorts of things and I still don't view Braun's deal as all that bad. Would you like to have the money free right now? Sure, but you could do a whole lot worse than what Braun is giving you. Braun also provides a lot of intangible value to the club. I think the players in MKE like him, he is a good veteran presence and last year you could almost always count on a good at bat. Aside from that, he is still beloved by fans and just simply known around the state. I couldn't explain why, but my 5 year-old was not interested in any jersey tee other than his. He barely knows the game and still demands we always see Braun bat.

 

Anybody would have signed Braun to the deal he got at the time he got it. There's always risk in any deal that size but I guess I don't see the deal as really impeding anything the team has done and still view him as a + player, not to mention a legend of the franchise.

[josh]

Nothing against Yelich - I wouldn't be *sad* if we extended him - but I like that Stearns seems to like to spread his chips around.

[rickh150]

Let's have this conversation in 2021.

[Lathund]

It's an interesting question. To get any kind of discount on market value, an extension would have to be signed as early as possible. The closer he gets to free agency while still a star player, the less incentive to sign an extension for below market value. He might not be interested in a discount at all of course, in which case extending him now makes little sense. The downside of a below-market extension now is of course that it brings risk with it, that like Braun the latter years will be less than ideal. 20m AAV or less and I'd say go for it; it's a risk but with tremendous upside. I'm also very much fine with waiting.

[homer]

Let's have this conversation in 2021.

 

I'm fine having it in 2020 if he keeps up his 2019 production.

[coolhandluke121]

 

My brother still argues with me to death that the Sabathia trade was bad because we mortgaged the farm. In his words it doesn't matter that LaPorta flamed out because we didn't know that at the time and therefore it was bad since we only got half a season of CC. It gives me a headache every time.

 

Michael Brantley would have been a big help at a very low price for several years. Same goes for Cain departing in the Greinke trade. I personally think the Brewers lost more chances to make the playoffs than they gained by making those two trades, and I think what they're doing now reflects the fact that Mark A learned his lesson (he has even said this, in so many words). If it's a last-gasp effort to win a title, by all means pull out all the stops, but they were doing this stuff when they had a great young core and a chance to have sustainable success. They weren't terrible trades or anything, but I think they were kind of short-sighted.

 

Now we don't see them giving up much value for short-term patches. Moustakas, Schoop, Claudio? Fine. But they aren't giving away excessive surplus value for short-term rentals anymore, and I'm very glad for that. The Yelich deal is exactly the type of opportunity you hold out for.

[coolhandluke121]

Can they scrap his current deal to give him more money now, with the trade-off being him making a much longer commitment at a well below market price?

 

Still doesn't seem necessary or timely, but it might pay off.