2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion

[KeithStone53151]

I just noticed, the Cubs are nearly the worst road team in the NL this year. 18-27 away. The Marlins are 18-29 and the Reds are 19-29. Every other NL team has at least 20 wins on the road. They've also played 54 home games vs 45 road games so far.

[jjfanec]

The Giants are on fire, and the Reds have lost 7 of 10 since the break. Between that series and the head to head, this is a great opportunity to take the division lead from the Cubs. Reminder, we play the Cubs 13 more times this season. We certainly control our own destiny.

 

The Giants are on fire but they still have to play really well over the next 62 games to have a good shot at the WC. 8 games over seems like a realistic low end for the last wild card teams about to buy and bad teams about to sell. That means the Giants have to go 35-27 down the stetch just to hit that low end. Do they believe they can they sustain that kind of run? Any short losing streak makes it very hard. They feel more like the Pirates last year than anything else.

 

I agree with your two posts about the Brewers and Cubs. Obviously I would feel much better about our chances with Woodruff but the Cub's road heavy schedule is nice to see. Cubs also have 10 games vs the Cards, 3 against each the Phillies and Nationals. The Brewers just have 5 against the Cards and 3 against the Nationals.

 

The Brewers on paper have a tough August (If the Rangers and Dbacks sell it gets a little nicer) and a little easier September (starts tough but 17 of last 20 should be against none playoff teams)

[KeithStone53151]

The Giants are on fire, and the Reds have lost 7 of 10 since the break. Between that series and the head to head, this is a great opportunity to take the division lead from the Cubs. Reminder, we play the Cubs 13 more times this season. We certainly control our own destiny.

 

The Giants are on fire but they still have to play really well over the next 62 games to have a good shot at the WC. 8 games over seems like a realistic low end for the last wild card teams about to buy and bad teams about to sell. That means the Giants have to go 35-27 down the stetch just to hit that low end. Do they believe they can they sustain that kind of run? Any short losing streak makes it very hard. They feel more like the Pirates last year than anything else.

 

I agree with your two posts about the Brewers and Cubs. Obviously I would feel much better about our chances with Woodruff but the Cub's road heavy schedule is nice to see. Cubs also have 10 games vs the Cards, 3 against each the Phillies and Nationals. The Brewers just have 5 against the Cards and 3 against the Nationals.

 

The Brewers on paper have a tough August (If the Rangers and Dbacks sell it gets a little nicer) and a little easier September (starts tough but 17 of last 20 should be against none playoff teams)

 

The Giants being on fire is only relevant over the next 3 games...at least to me. I like that they are playing well with the Cubs coming to town. The only other NL team I'm concerned with is the Cubs...but even still I'm mostly concerned with the Brewers playing better baseball and churning out wins. It just would be nice for the Giants to win 2 or 3 against the Cubs whiel we win 2 or 3 against the Reds...and then to win the series against he Cubs and take the division lead. That would put to bed any notion that we should even consider selling.

[Zad Fnark]

I see the Cubs optioned Carl Edwards Jr. I seem to recall him being a gift to Brewers hitting.

[NYChez]

NL Central teams gave up 16 runs in the 8th inning and beyond last night (Brewers actually gave up the fewest). Many teams will be searching for bullpen help.

[KeithStone53151]

As much as that loss yesterday was a kick in the nuts, it was 1 game and fortunately the Cubs lost as well. It was a tough one but it happens. Jeffress has been far more good than bad. Keep in mind, he's facing very good mlb hitters that will sometimes simply win the battle. Can't expect him to be perfect.

[MrTPlush]

Everyone is losing their minds because someone hit a grand slam to even set that up. If Saladino doesn't hit that it is probably just the typical debbie downer attitude.

[KeithStone53151]

Everyone is losing their minds because someone hit a grand slam to even set that up. If Saladino doesn't hit that it is probably just the typical debbie downer attitude.

 

I feel like too many people don't realize that we are playing a team of other professional players. Sometimes they'll make good plays, you can't win 10-0 every game. And that doesn't make the team terrible, it's just how baseball works.

[jjfanec]

Everyone is losing their minds because someone hit a grand slam to even set that up. If Saladino doesn't hit that it is probably just the typical debbie downer attitude.

 

Completely agree. Obviously it was a bad way to lose but we have had a lot of those. I was at the Giants game a week or so back when the team kept fighting back only to keep blowing every lead. Those loses suck. But this team is still in the playoff hunt and will lose a few more games like this and they will win a few games where other fans feel like we do right now

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Giants, Rockies, Padres, and Pittsburgh are all teams that 100% should be selling. The standings are way too cramped for teams like that to be buying when they already have arguably overachieved.

 

Nationals, Brewers, Phillies, Cardinals, and D Backs all should be buying in my opinion.

 

D Backs are the most interesting of the bunch. They actually have the best run differential of WC teams and/or ones vying for it. Third best in the NL to be specific (just behind the Braves). That being said this is also a team that traded Goldy and would be thrilled to match up with someone on Greinke. Add in the fact they are teetering at .500 the may decide to sell.

 

I'm with you. The Brewers should sell. Last night was my tipping point, but you posted this before the game. Jeffress is totally unreliable and this team just does not have anything remotely close to a bullpen that can be counted on in October. There is one guy that can get outs. Absolutely devastating loss that is pretty dang representative of this team's glaring problem.

 

Edit: Totally not with you, lol, misread that, but I cannot buy into this bullpen. I just can't. I think they can make the playoffs with the right amount of luck, but would be a quick and easy out for anybody.

[shanedog19]

Giants, Rockies, Padres, and Pittsburgh are all teams that 100% should be selling. The standings are way too cramped for teams like that to be buying when they already have arguably overachieved.

 

Nationals, Brewers, Phillies, Cardinals, and D Backs all should be buying in my opinion.

 

D Backs are the most interesting of the bunch. They actually have the best run differential of WC teams and/or ones vying for it. Third best in the NL to be specific (just behind the Braves). That being said this is also a team that traded Goldy and would be thrilled to match up with someone on Greinke. Add in the fact they are teetering at .500 the may decide to sell.

 

I'm with you. The Brewers should sell. Last night was my tipping point, but you posted this before the game. Jeffress is totally unreliable and this team just does not have anything remotely close to a bullpen that can be counted on in October. There is one guy that can get outs. Absolutely devastating loss that is pretty dang representative of this team's glaring problem.

 

Edit: Totally not with you, lol, misread that, but I cannot buy into this bullpen. I just can't. I think they can make the playoffs with the right amount of luck, but would be a quick and easy out for anybody.

 

I am a proponent of the Brewers being sellers as well. Just too much to fix with the pitching staff for one trade deadline. Is it worth emptying out an already mediocre farm system for? I would sell on Grandal and Moose, get what you can for each, and try and win a championship in 2020.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

There is no harm throwing a few darts on small deals and dispatching with some pieces that otherwise would need to be added to the 40 man roster. I don't think it makes sense to make a major deal and part with any major prospect capital unless it's for a rotation arm that's controlled for multiple years. Short of that, add a cheaply acquired reliever or two who might stabilize the pitching staff and who knows, maybe the team gets hot.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I agree with above, but think they should unload Moose and Grandal for anything remotely good. It won't happen because they are definitely in the thick of it, I can't deny that. But there is just far too big a talent gap between the Brewers and the Dodgers or anyone in the AL. Last year you had a fighting chance. They were right there with LAD, this team is not. The instant Hader's arm is tired and they need to protect a lead or just stay in a game with ATL or LAD it will be open season on whatever scrub we have out there.

[MrTPlush]

One should look at the number of times in recent years the best team even made the World Series.

 

2018:

Red Sox, won WS

Brewers, failed to make WS

 

2017:

Indians, failed to make NLCS (lost to WC team)

Dodgers, lost WS

 

2016:

Rangers, swept in NLDS (by WC team)

Cubs, won WS

 

2015:

Royals, won WS

Cardinals, lost in NLDS (by WC team)

 

2014:

Angels, lost in NLDS (by WC team)

Nationals, lost in NLDS (by WC team...WC WON WORLD SERIES)

 

2013:

Red Sox, won WS

Cardinals, made WS

 

2012:

Yankees, lost in NLCS

Nationals, lost in NLCS

 

6 times the #1 seed has made it to the World Series under the current system.

5 times the WC team has beaten the #1 seed under the current system.

57% of #1 seeds never reach the World Series

 

So please, can we stop acting like the Dodgers are assured to just steamroll the NL in the postseason. They may do so...and have a much better chance than a typical #1 as they are pretty elite, but they are not unbeatable...not even close.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I'm not of the opinion the Dodgers are automatically in the World Series. I am of the opinion the Brewers don't have the talent to win the NL. The Braves may get there, the Cubs may get there if they get hot, hell the Cardinals have done it with teams similar to theirs. But I'm just not seeing the Brewers with the bullpen that can do it.

[BruisedCrew]

The Giants are on fire, and the Reds have lost 7 of 10 since the break. Between that series and the head to head, this is a great opportunity to take the division lead from the Cubs. Reminder, we play the Cubs 13 more times this season. We certainly control our own destiny.

 

The Giants are on fire but they still have to play really well over the next 62 games to have a good shot at the WC. 8 games over seems like a realistic low end for the last wild card teams about to buy and bad teams about to sell. That means the Giants have to go 35-27 down the stetch just to hit that low end. Do they believe they can they sustain that kind of run? Any short losing streak makes it very hard. They feel more like the Pirates last year than anything else.

 

I agree with your two posts about the Brewers and Cubs. Obviously I would feel much better about our chances with Woodruff but the Cub's road heavy schedule is nice to see. Cubs also have 10 games vs the Cards, 3 against each the Phillies and Nationals. The Brewers just have 5 against the Cards and 3 against the Nationals.

 

The Brewers on paper have a tough August (If the Rangers and Dbacks sell it gets a little nicer) and a little easier September (starts tough but 17 of last 20 should be against none playoff teams)

 

It seems just as easy to see how the Giants could get to 8 games over .500 as it is to see how the Brewers can get there, especially with the Woodruff injury. The Brewers have gone 16-4 with Woodruff starting and 37-45 in the rest of their games. And that isn’t just good luck and exceptional hitting support. So now the Brewers, who have barely managed to stay above .500 after getting to 10 games over, have to find a way to cover even more innings from the overworked bullpen. In recent weeks we have seen several examples of how the Brewers have trouble finishing games when Hader isn’t available to cover one or two innings. And he can’t cover one or two innings more than about twice a week. It’s really hard to win more than half your games that way, and the Brewers haven’t been able to do that.

 

I would also say that I would bet that the second wild card team will have a record better than 85-77. Teams like the Nationals and Cardinals, who are already 5 or 6 games over despite a lot of injuries, are probably going to end up closer to 90 wins than 85.

[sveumrules]

I agree with above, but think they should unload Moose and Grandal for anything remotely good.

 

Teams didn't want to give up a draft pick that would be around a 40 FV prospect to acquire Grandal for a full year, why would they give up more than that for two months?

 

Last year we acquired Moose for Phillips (still in AAA) & Lopez (-0.8 WAR w/ KC in 2019). Moose is hitting better than last year so maybe we could get something a little better than this?

 

The return for either player probably won't be remotely good.

[sveumrules]

The Brewers have gone 16-4 with Woodruff starting and 37-45 in the rest of their games. And that isn’t just good luck and exceptional hitting support.

 

Brewers Run Support by Starter

 

Woodruff (20 GS) 6.4

Peralta (8 GS) 6.0

Chase (15 GS) 5.3

Davies (20 GS) 4.5

Adrian (6 GS) 4.2

Gio (7 GS) 3.9

Jhoulys (18 GS) 3.4

 

A good deal of that 16-4 record is exceptional hitting support.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

The return on both is zero when they go somewhere else. The Brewers are doing pretty much exactly what I didn't want. Middling well enough by the deadline that they're "in it," but still losing games the way they have all year with a bullpen that is terrible. Most likely is that they finish the year out like this. I would've preferred just losing a bunch of games and getting some lottery tickets than winning 84 games and claiming a WC if that's going to be their fate. Or worse, being the first or second squad out completely.

[sveumrules]

The Brewers are doing pretty much exactly what I didn't want.

 

With the increased competitiveness of the NL this year what you wanted was a pipe dream.

 

The odds of the Brewers cruising to the division title & not having to fight it out for 162 games (& maybe even more) were always extremely low.

 

We are currently 1/2 game out of the Wild Card & 2 games out of the division with 2 months to go.

 

Sounds like the perfect time to throw in the towel, or maybe this was just the most likely outcome all along so why stop fighting now?

[KeithStone53151]

The Brewers are doing pretty much exactly what I didn't want.

 

With the increased competitiveness of the NL this year what you wanted was a pipe dream.

 

The odds of the Brewers cruising to the division title & not having to fight it out for 162 games (& maybe even more) were always extremely low.

 

We are currently 1/2 game out of the Wild Card & 2 games out of the division with 2 months to go.

 

Sounds like the perfect time to throw in the towel, or maybe this was just the most likely outcome all along so why stop fighting now?

 

Maybe adding a couple significant pieces is enough to put us further ahead of the other middle of the road teams and separate from the herd over the next 2 months?

[OldSchoolSnapper]

The Brewers are doing pretty much exactly what I didn't want.

 

With the increased competitiveness of the NL this year what you wanted was a pipe dream.

 

The odds of the Brewers cruising to the division title & not having to fight it out for 162 games (& maybe even more) were always extremely low.

 

We are currently 1/2 game out of the Wild Card & 2 games out of the division with 2 months to go.

 

Sounds like the perfect time to throw in the towel, or maybe this was just the most likely outcome all along so why stop fighting now?

 

I think that's pretty dishonest. I think most people knew the Brewers would win fewer games. I don't think anybody thought their bullpen would be atrocious. I'll be honest - if they were winning the same amount of games but had a lights out Hader, Knebel and Jeffress I would think it would still be worth it to get in. With the guys they are trotting out there, I simply don't. Saddest thing about last night's game is that I probably expect something similar to happen about 60% of the time if anyone not named Hader is pitching. I have no confidence in that pen to get the best hitters on the best teams out when it matters.

[BruisedCrew]

The Brewers have gone 16-4 with Woodruff starting and 37-45 in the rest of their games. And that isn’t just good luck and exceptional hitting support.

 

Brewers Run Support by Starter

 

Woodruff (20 GS) 6.4

Peralta (8 GS) 6.0

Chase (15 GS) 5.3

Davies (20 GS) 4.5

Adrian (6 GS) 4.2

Gio (7 GS) 3.9

Jhoulys (18 GS) 3.4

 

A good deal of that 16-4 record is exceptional hitting support.

 

I said it isn’t “just” run support, not that run support isn’t a factor at all. But, I can’t ignore the fact that Woodruff has 10 quality starts, Davies has 8 and the rest of the staff has a grand total of 7. Sure, he’s had his share of games with a lot of runs scored, but he’s taken advantage of them by covering a lot of innings, maintaining the lead, and saving the bullpen. When a guy can go 8 innings allowing just one baserunner (a solo HR), I’m not going to say he was lucky because the Brewers scored 9 runs that day (some of which were a result of Woodruff’s hitting).

 

Before Sunday’s early departure, Woodruff had gone 6 innings or more in 10 of his previous 11 starts. Considering the “third time through the order” phobia, that’s pretty impressive.

 

No matter how you slice it, the Brewers are unlikely to find another starter (inside or outside the organization) who will be as effective as Woodruff has been.

[willie key]

If you smell something stinky coming from the bed. It’s the mess the cubs and brewers left letting the cardinals get in first place

 

That team belongs nowhere near the lead. And there they are

[Brewcrewin07]

If you smell something stinky coming from the bed. It’s the mess the cubs and brewers left letting the cardinals get in first place

 

That team belongs nowhere near the lead. And there they are

 

 

Well, to be fair, look who they have played out of the ASB...the Reds and Pirates(twice). They won't be in first for long(and will fade) once they start playing real teams like with the next few series they have coming up with the Cubs, A's, Astros and Dodgers. Goodbye Cardinals.