2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion

[tmwiese55]

I guess to me that's kind of the definition of mediocre/ok.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

You can conclude the bookies in Vegas believe it’s most likely the Dodgers, Braves and Cubs win their Divisions and the Brewers and Nationals make the playoffs as Wild Cards.

 

No you can't because that's not how odds are set.

[sveumrules]

Guessing this has close to zero predictive value, but I went through all the NLCS teams in the two Wild Card era then noted how they each fared in the following season.

 

With a sample 12 total NLCS teams since 2012, their following season results were...

 

No Playoffs (2) Wild Card (2) NLDS (2) NLCS (3) World Series (3)

 

I figured a sample 24 teams would only be half as irrelevant, so I did the same thing for the AL...

 

No Playoffs (5) Wild Card (0) ALDS (3) ALCS (3) World Series (1)

[Eye Black]

Heading into play today 14 teams in the National League are within 5.5 GB of the Wild Card. Only the Marlins are no doubt sellers at this point. I knew the NL was going to be a dog fight, but with between 65-68 games remaining on everyone’s schedule it is going to be quite the competition for those two Wild Card spots.

 

 

[KeithStone53151]

So crazy how close it is. Basically everyone is ok except the Marlins suck, the Dodgers are awesome, and the Braves are a small step behind the Dodgers. Then you look at the AL and there are 5 teams hanging around by the Marlins and the playoff race is pretty much a 7 team race for 5 spots. Rangers and Angels can pretend to try and be in it if they want, but they aren't.

[jjfanec]

The AL Central has a combined run differential of -204. The NL Central has a combined run differential of +44. That is a 248 run difference!

[Eye Black]

Here are the NL Central versus NL Central only records for each team so far...

 

Brewers — 24-18

 

Cubs — 20-17

 

Cardinals — 17-18

 

Pirates — 19-23

 

Reds — 19-23

[jjfanec]

Here are the NL Central versus NL Central only records for each team so far...

 

Brewers — 22-14

 

Cubs — 23-17

 

Cardinals — 20-14

 

Pirates — 20-21

 

Reds — 13-28

 

Well the Reds can pretty easily figure out what cost them a shot at the playoffs this year. It is time for them to start selling off expiring contracts - Gennett, Puig, Roark - and then maybe a guy like Dietrick. The Pirates should really do the same - Dickerson, Lyles, Liriano, Melky Cabrera. Neither of those two teams are making the playoffs.

[Warning Track Power]

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIL/2019-schedule-scores.shtml#all_win_loss

Brewers are 24-18 vs the NL Central

3-3 vs Cubs

5-5 vs Cardinals

7-6 vs Reds

9-4 vs Pirates

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CHC/2019-schedule-scores.shtml

Cubs are 20-17

3-3 vs Brewers

6-3 vs Cardinals

5-7 vs Reds

6-4 vs Pirates

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/STL/2019-schedule-scores.shtml

Cardinals are 17-18

5-5 vs Brewers

3-6 vs Cubs

4-3 vs Reds

5-4 vs Pirates

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CIN/2019-schedule-scores.shtml

Reds are 15-24

6-7 vs Brewers

3-6 vs Cubs

3-4 vs Reds

3-7 vs Pirates

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/PIT/2019.shtml

Pirates are 19-23

4-9 vs Brewers

4-6 vs Cubs

4-5 vs Cardinals

7-3 vs Reds

[Eye Black]

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIL/2019-schedule-scores.shtml#all_win_loss

Brewers are 24-18 vs the NL Central

3-3 vs Cubs

5-5 vs Cardinals

7-6 vs Reds

9-4 vs Pirates

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CHC/2019-schedule-scores.shtml

Cubs are 20-17

3-3 vs Brewers

6-3 vs Cardinals

5-7 vs Reds

6-4 vs Pirates

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/STL/2019-schedule-scores.shtml

Cardinals are 17-18

5-5 vs Brewers

3-6 vs Cubs

4-3 vs Reds

5-4 vs Pirates

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CIN/2019-schedule-scores.shtml

Reds are 15-24

6-7 vs Brewers

3-6 vs Cubs

3-4 vs Reds

3-7 vs Pirates

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/PIT/2019.shtml

Pirates are 19-23

4-9 vs Brewers

4-6 vs Cubs

4-5 vs Cardinals

7-3 vs Reds

Yeah, I accidentally copy and pasted the Day game column instead of NL Central inter division standings. I updated my original post as well.

[Warning Track Power]

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIL/2019-schedule-scores.shtml#all_win_loss

Brewers are 24-18 vs the NL Central

3-3 vs Cubs

5-5 vs Cardinals

7-6 vs Reds

9-4 vs Pirates

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CHC/2019-schedule-scores.shtml

Cubs are 20-17

3-3 vs Brewers

6-3 vs Cardinals

5-7 vs Reds

6-4 vs Pirates

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/STL/2019-schedule-scores.shtml

Cardinals are 17-18

5-5 vs Brewers

3-6 vs Cubs

4-3 vs Reds

5-4 vs Pirates

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CIN/2019-schedule-scores.shtml

Reds are 15-24

6-7 vs Brewers

3-6 vs Cubs

3-4 vs Reds

3-7 vs Pirates

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/PIT/2019.shtml

Pirates are 19-23

4-9 vs Brewers

4-6 vs Cubs

4-5 vs Cardinals

7-3 vs Reds

Yeah, I accidentally copy and pasted the Day game column instead of NL Central inter division standings. I updated my original post as well.

Wasn't meant to be snarky at all. Just got me curious and looked for myself.

[Eye Black]

Wasn't meant to be snarky at all. Just got me curious and looked for myself.

No, trust me I appreciate the assist!

 

I took it from this standings page, Link.

[MrTPlush]

I swear at like the AS Break media was preaching how the division was close, but the division's chances at grabbing a WC spot was fading because every team was struggling.

 

All this to look up the standings today and see we hold the 2nd spot and the Cardinals are .5 a game out. I kept going back each week and every Wednesday it seems a team held a spot and another was the next team out.

[jjfanec]

I swear at like the AS Break media was preaching how the division was close, but the division's chances at grabbing a WC spot was fading because every team was struggling.

 

All this to look up the standings today and see we hold the 2nd spot and the Cardinals are .5 a game out. I kept going back each week and every Wednesday it seems a team held a spot and another was the next team out.

 

That is how it will be too. The Brewers and Cardinals are goint to be right there with teams like the Phillies and Dbacks. I would be surprised if the 2 wild card spots dont come from the Nationals, Phillies, Brewers, Cardinals, or Diamondbacks. I mean obviously the Cubs could also be in the mix if the Brewers or Cards take the division.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

The only teams in are Atlanta and LA. Atlanta barring a historic meltdown. Nobody else is assured of anything, including the Cubs.

[KeithStone53151]

The only teams in are Atlanta and LA. Atlanta barring a historic meltdown. Nobody else is assured of anything, including the Cubs.

 

The Marlins are assured of not making the playoffs I'm pretty sure. The other 12 teams all have a very realistic shot at this point.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I meant of being good bets to get in. You can't even sleep on Colorado at this point. Cincy probably isn't good enough, but it could happen. Safe to say at least one of the lower tier teams will give it a run and one of the upper tier teams will collapse. Hopefully we just cleansed our system of our worst baseball.

[jjfanec]

The only teams in are Atlanta and LA. Atlanta barring a historic meltdown. Nobody else is assured of anything, including the Cubs.

 

The Marlins are assured of not making the playoffs I'm pretty sure. The other 12 teams all have a very realistic shot at this point.

 

It is hard for me to say the Reds (and teams right around them) have a realistic shot. They have 69 games left. They are currently 7 games under .500. Going 40-29 would put them 4 games over .500 which would get them in as of now. I went back 5 years and the last Wild Card has always been at least 8 games over .500 (most often way above that). Say this year hits that low mark of 8 games over they would need to go 44-25. I really dont see that happening.

 

To get to even 4 games over (83-79) here is what other teams need to do

Mets - 39-28

Pirates - 38-29

Rockies - 37-29

Padres - 37-30

Giants - 36-30

 

To get to 8 games over - 85-77

Mets - 41-26

Pirates - 40-27

Rockies - 39-27

Padres - 39-28

Giants - 38-28

 

Not sure how realistic that is for most of those teams. I guess you could say the 4 games over is realistic but to get to 8 games over that is some really good baseball. It just seems very likely it is at leas 8 games over. Here is what the top 5 wild card teams need to do get to 8 over. I think 2 of 5 hit these numbers

 

Nationals -35-33

Brewers - 35-30

Cards - 37-31

Phillies - 36-30

Dbacks - 36-30

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Any of those teams like Cincinnati have much greater chances with one 8-game winning streak or something. Not common occurrences, but within the realm of pretty possible baseball weirdness.

[jjfanec]

Any of those teams like Cincinnati have much greater chances with one 8-game winning streak or something. Not common occurrences, but within the realm of pretty possible baseball weirdness.

 

Obviously that COULD happen. The post I responded to said they had "very realistic" chances. I dont think depending on an 8-game winning steak or 4 out of 5 teams who are currently above .500 playing poorly the rest of the way is "very realistic." It could happen if a team gets really hot but it isnt likely. And that is shown in predictions. None have any team in the group i mentioned with more than a 9% chance of making the playoffs.

[stalton]

With the one lonely trading deadline, I wouldn't be surprised of not a whole lot of action just based on the number of the teams within "striking distance" of the WC.

[jjfanec]

Outside the Giants none of the teams outside the Nationals, Brewers, Cards and Phillies had good weeks. The Rockies, Padres and Pirates are all 5 or more out. The Reds and Mets are 7 or more. If those teams don't make a move this week they are selling. I expect those teams to be sellers!

 

The Dbacks and Giants are being th sitting at 2.5. Giants have a huge series against the Cubs then go Padres and Phillies up to the deadline.

The Dbacks go Baltimore and Miami before the Yankees. Easy schedule to make a little run.

[MrTPlush]

Giants, Rockies, Padres, and Pittsburgh are all teams that 100% should be selling. The standings are way too cramped for teams like that to be buying when they already have arguably overachieved.

 

Nationals, Brewers, Phillies, Cardinals, and D Backs all should be buying in my opinion.

 

D Backs are the most interesting of the bunch. They actually have the best run differential of WC teams and/or ones vying for it. Third best in the NL to be specific (just behind the Braves). That being said this is also a team that traded Goldy and would be thrilled to match up with someone on Greinke. Add in the fact they are teetering at .500 the may decide to sell.

[jjfanec]

Giants, Rockies, Padres, and Pittsburgh are all teams that 100% should be selling. The standings are way too cramped for teams like that to be buying when they already have arguably overachieved.

 

Nationals, Brewers, Phillies, Cardinals, and D Backs all should be buying in my opinion.

 

D Backs are the most interesting of the bunch. They actually have the best run differential of WC teams and/or ones vying for it. Third best in the NL to be specific (just behind the Braves). That being said this is also a team that traded Goldy and would be thrilled to match up with someone on Greinke. Add in the fact they are teetering at .500 the may decide to sell.

 

The Dbacks and Giants are easily the most interesting teams. The Giants were presumed sellers all season but seem to always want to go for it. At the same time they have very valuable pieces in Smith and Bumgarner. The Dbacks have a crazy good run differential but are a team most did not see competing. They have been rumored sellers with Ray and Greinke. I would not be surprised to see them sell looking toward the next couple years.

 

If the Giants and Dbacks sell you are looking at 5 teams competing for 3 spots with the Cubs only having a 2.5 game lead over the 3rd place Cards.

[KeithStone53151]

The Giants are on fire, and the Reds have lost 7 of 10 since the break. Between that series and the head to head, this is a great opportunity to take the division lead from the Cubs. Reminder, we play the Cubs 13 more times this season. We certainly control our own destiny.