2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion

[Eye Black]

Surprising what a big nothing Goldschmidt has been for the Cardinals so far. His slash line in June was a pretty miserable .181/.274/.309/.583. Who would have thought he'd be so mediocre (.336 OBP/.741 OPS) through the first three months of the season?

Meanwhile two of the players they traded away for Goldy have thrived in Arizona. Each has produced nearly twice the value of Goldschmidt through the first half of the season. Prior to being injured Luke Weaver had a 3.03 ERA (3.09 FIP) over 62.1 inning and catcher Carson Kelly is currently carrying an .881 OPS (as a catcher!). It is certainly within the range of possibilities that Goldschmidt goes on a second half tear, but to this point that trade, and subsequent additional 5 year extension, aren't looking so great for the Cardinals.

[homer]

Surprising what a big nothing Goldschmidt has been for the Cardinals so far. His slash line in June was a pretty miserable .181/.274/.309/.583. Who would have thought he'd be so mediocre (.336 OBP/.741 OPS) through the first three months of the season?

 

Just think how mediocre that would look if you took out what he did against the Brewers.

 

He needs another series with the Crew to recharge his batteries.

 

Mediocre is one way to put it.

 

Here is his current slash line:

 

.246/.336/.405/.741

 

Take out his numbers against the Brewers and it's:

 

.219/.310/.326/.636

 

He has 30% of his total bases against Milwaukee.

[nate82]

I said this when the Cardinals traded and then extended Goldschmidt. The Cardinals over paid both in money and years on that extension compared to what he would have received in FA.

 

The Cardinals are going to regret this signing.

[BruisedCrew]

It probably also irks Cardinals fans to see Luke Voit thriving at first base for the Yankees.

[willie key]

Surprising what a big nothing Goldschmidt has been for the Cardinals so far. His slash line in June was a pretty miserable .181/.274/.309/.583. Who would have thought he'd be so mediocre (.336 OBP/.741 OPS) through the first three months of the season?

 

Just think how mediocre that would look if you took out what he did against the Brewers.

 

He needs another series with the Crew to recharge his batteries.

 

Mediocre is one way to put it.

 

Here is his current slash line:

 

.246/.336/.405/.741

 

Take out his numbers against the Brewers and it's:

 

.219/.310/.326/.636

 

He has 30% of his total bases against Milwaukee.

 

crissakes. Didn't Wong destroy us too. I wonder what his numbers are without playing us

[Eye Black]

As the Brewers sit in a Fourth of July rain delay I thought I would take a look at how many wins each NL Central team is currently on pace for right now (not counting the Brewers game as a loss just yet)...

 

Brewers - 85.7 wins

Cubs - 83.7 wins

Cardinals - 81 wins

Pirates - 80 wins

Reds - 77.1 wins

 

Here is a link to our preseason NL Central Standings Prediction thread.

 

 

The poster named ougiqbxy predicted the following in post #22 and may be in the running to win the pot...

 

Brewers 86

Cardinals 85

Cubs 84

Pirates 83

Reds 82

[adambr2]

We are 4 games over. 500. At this time last season we were 18 games over. Yeesh.

[KeithStone53151]

We knew heading into the season that the NL was going to be tough. Literally every team besides the Marlins made moves that indicated they were seemingly trying to contend. Even the Giants, Dbacks, Mets, Reds, etc all improved their teams. It really shouldn't be THAT surprising that so many NL teams are still in it. This isn't like the AL where you pretty much had 5 teams with around 80% chance to make the postseason and a maybe 2 dark horse teams trying to be good...with the other 8 teams rebuilding.

[sveumrules]

Brewers Playoff Odds At The Break...

 

FG: 38%

538: 39%

BRef: 38%

[KeithStone53151]

Brewers were tied for 12th in the NL in runs scored in June with 118. We did have 4 days off, maybe if we have an extra game we get to 123 which would put us alone in 12th in the NL. The bulk of NL teams were between 128 and 145 scored. The Brewers have the highest hard contact rate in the NL, middle of the pack k rate, highest BB rate, and 10th in the NL in BABIP.

 

Brewers were 10th in the NL in ERA in June with 4.86, 8th best was 4.20...so we were a bit of an outlier on the high end. That said, the Brewers were 2nd in FIP and 3rd in xFIP. We also had the highest BABIP despite having the highest soft contact rate. We also were 12th in the NL in LOB%. All that is enough to tell me our pitching was wildly unlucky in June. I know everyone says the sky is falling because of our pitching, but a lot of soft hits finding holes in key spots.

 

Their record was 13-13 in June. Based simply on runs allowed and runs scored, we got a bit lucky on overall record. But i think we got severely unlucky in both runs scored and runs allowed based on the advanced metrics I look at. I think this is a better team than we're given credit for right now on both sides of the ball.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Brewers were tied for 12th in the NL in runs scored in June with 118. We did have 4 days off, maybe if we have an extra game we get to 123 which would put us alone in 12th in the NL. The bulk of NL teams were between 128 and 145 scored. The Brewers have the highest hard contact rate in the NL, middle of the pack k rate, highest BB rate, and 10th in the NL in BABIP.

 

Brewers were 10th in the NL in ERA in June with 4.86, 8th best was 4.20...so we were a bit of an outlier on the high end. That said, the Brewers were 2nd in FIP and 3rd in xFIP. We also had the highest BABIP despite having the highest soft contact rate. We also were 12th in the NL in LOB%. All that is enough to tell me our pitching was wildly unlucky in June. I know everyone says the sky is falling because of our pitching, but a lot of soft hits finding holes in key spots.

 

Their record was 13-13 in June. Based simply on runs allowed and runs scored, we got a bit lucky on overall record. But i think we got severely unlucky in both runs scored and runs allowed based on the advanced metrics I look at. I think this is a better team than we're given credit for right now on both sides of the ball.

 

June was supposed to be the softest portion of their schedule, and they missed a golden opportunity to take control of this division by playing their worst baseball so far in 2019. While none of the team stats you listed are godawful atrocious, all of them point to middling/below average results - they really didn't have any aspect of their team performing consistently well enough to lean on for sustained success, and that showed in a meh month recordwise against teams they would have beaten up on if they were playing better.

[KeithStone53151]

June was supposed to be the softest portion of their schedule, and they missed a golden opportunity to take control of this division by playing their worst baseball so far in 2019. While none of the team stats you listed are godawful atrocious, all of them point to middling/below average results - they really didn't have any aspect of their team performing consistently well enough to lean on for sustained success, and that showed in a meh month recordwise against teams they would have beaten up on if they were playing better.

 

I think you missed the whole point of my post. We scored 118 runs while the Padres for example were 3rd in the NL with 153 runs. Meanwhile we had a higher BB rate, lower k rate, 7% lower soft contact rate, and 10% higher hard contact rate. In what universe should the team on the wrong side of all those advanced metrics score 37 less runs? Well they had a .318 BABIP while we had .286 BABIP. They had a lot of bloop junk fall in while we had more line drives not fall in. Eventually that stuff evens out, and their soft contact turns into easy outs while our hard contact goes over the fence and plugs gaps. The entire point of my post above was pointing out that this team got really unlucky in June and the sky is not falling.

[BruisedCrew]

Losing so many games against teams with losing records is bad baseball not bad luck.

 

Anyone who has watched the Brewers play knows they have played poorly for the better part of 6 weeks.

 

Advanced stats showing that the Brewers may have been closer to mediocre than terrible isn’t much consolation for a team that is supposed to be a playoff contender.

[82brewcrew82]

Brewers were tied for 12th in the NL in runs scored in June with 118. We did have 4 days off, maybe if we have an extra game we get to 123 which would put us alone in 12th in the NL. The bulk of NL teams were between 128 and 145 scored. The Brewers have the highest hard contact rate in the NL, middle of the pack k rate, highest BB rate, and 10th in the NL in BABIP.

 

Brewers were 10th in the NL in ERA in June with 4.86, 8th best was 4.20...so we were a bit of an outlier on the high end. That said, the Brewers were 2nd in FIP and 3rd in xFIP. We also had the highest BABIP despite having the highest soft contact rate. We also were 12th in the NL in LOB%. All that is enough to tell me our pitching was wildly unlucky in June. I know everyone says the sky is falling because of our pitching, but a lot of soft hits finding holes in key spots.

 

Their record was 13-13 in June. Based simply on runs allowed and runs scored, we got a bit lucky on overall record. But i think we got severely unlucky in both runs scored and runs allowed based on the advanced metrics I look at. I think this is a better team than we're given credit for right now on both sides of the ball.

This reminds me of the dude that wrote the dissertation about ignoring this pile of really bad performance over here and then turn your head slightly to the right and squint really hard and we are actually have a really good pitching staff. We don't. We are exactly what are record and extended period of play say we are, which is very mediocre with just enough talent to dream on. This is a mediocre team with a mediocre farm system with a mediocre future if they play this out like they are contenders...........which they did when they made some rash decisions early on with the roster.

[owbc]

This reminds me of the dude that wrote the dissertation about ignoring this pile of really bad performance over here and then turn your head slightly to the right and squint really hard and we are actually have a really good pitching staff. We don't. We are exactly what are record and extended period of play say we are, which is very mediocre with just enough talent to dream on. This is a mediocre team with a mediocre farm system with a mediocre future if they play this out like they are contenders...........which they did when they made some rash decisions early on with the roster.

 

A team can be both mediocre and a playoff contender in the double-Wild Card era. The 2019 Brewers are both. One of the 5 teams in the NL Central is going to be a mediocre division champion. History suggests that mediocre team could easily go on to win the World Series. One way to look at the current situation is that the Brewers have a golden opportunity to sneak into the playoffs if the right moves present themselves at the deadline. Nobody will remember the 90-win Rays or the 89-win Mariners from 2018 but the 2019 Brewers are in a much different and more enticing situation.

[82brewcrew82]

This reminds me of the dude that wrote the dissertation about ignoring this pile of really bad performance over here and then turn your head slightly to the right and squint really hard and we are actually have a really good pitching staff. We don't. We are exactly what are record and extended period of play say we are, which is very mediocre with just enough talent to dream on. This is a mediocre team with a mediocre farm system with a mediocre future if they play this out like they are contenders...........which they did when they made some rash decisions early on with the roster.

 

A team can be both mediocre and a playoff contender in the double-Wild Card era. The 2019 Brewers are both. One of the 5 teams in the NL Central is going to be a mediocre division champion. History suggests that mediocre team could easily go on to win the World Series. One way to look at the current situation is that the Brewers have a golden opportunity to sneak into the playoffs if the right moves present themselves at the deadline. Nobody will remember the 90-win Rays or the 89-win Mariners from 2018 but the 2019 Brewers are in a much different and more enticing situation.

Fair enough. I don't entirely agree but fair enough.

[Eye Black]

This reminds me of the dude that wrote the dissertation about ignoring this pile of really bad performance over here and then turn your head slightly to the right and squint really hard and we are actually have a really good pitching staff. We don't. We are exactly what are record and extended period of play say we are, which is very mediocre with just enough talent to dream on. This is a mediocre team with a mediocre farm system with a mediocre future if they play this out like they are contenders...........which they did when they made some rash decisions early on with the roster.

 

A team can be both mediocre and a playoff contender in the double-Wild Card era. The 2019 Brewers are both. One of the 5 teams in the NL Central is going to be a mediocre division champion. History suggests that mediocre team could easily go on to win the World Series. One way to look at the current situation is that the Brewers have a golden opportunity to sneak into the playoffs if the right moves present themselves at the deadline. Nobody will remember the 90-win Rays or the 89-win Mariners from 2018 but the 2019 Brewers are in a much different and more enticing situation.

Even the single Wild Card era occasionally produced mediocre teams that had things break right for them. The two mediocre teams of that era that I remember best are the 2006 Cardinals and the 2007 Rockies.

 

The 2006 Cardinals finished the regular season 83–78. It’s the second-worst record ever for a league champion and the worst record ever for a World Series champion. Of course it had to be the Cardinals who won a World Series with an 83 win team.

 

The 2007 Rockies were 76-72 on September 16th and went on a crazy hot streak the last two weeks of the season and then won a one game playoff to get in as the Wild Card. They ultimately got swept in the World Series, but the fact they made it that far after producing pedestrian results for the majority of the season was an incredible story.

[Brew crew 92]

This reminds me of the dude that wrote the dissertation about ignoring this pile of really bad performance over here and then turn your head slightly to the right and squint really hard and we are actually have a really good pitching staff. We don't. We are exactly what are record and extended period of play say we are, which is very mediocre with just enough talent to dream on. This is a mediocre team with a mediocre farm system with a mediocre future if they play this out like they are contenders...........which they did when they made some rash decisions early on with the roster.

 

A team can be both mediocre and a playoff contender in the double-Wild Card era. The 2019 Brewers are both. One of the 5 teams in the NL Central is going to be a mediocre division champion. History suggests that mediocre team could easily go on to win the World Series. One way to look at the current situation is that the Brewers have a golden opportunity to sneak into the playoffs if the right moves present themselves at the deadline. Nobody will remember the 90-win Rays or the 89-win Mariners from 2018 but the 2019 Brewers are in a much different and more enticing situation.

Even the single Wild Card era occasionally produced mediocre teams that had things break right for them. The two mediocre teams of that era that I remember best are the 2006 Cardinals and the 2007 Rockies.

 

The 2006 Cardinals finished the regular season 83–78. It’s the second-worst record ever for a league champion and the worst record ever for a World Series champion. Of course it had to be the Cardinals who won a World Series with an 83 win team.

 

The 2007 Rockies were 76-72 on September 16th and went on a crazy hot streak the last two weeks of the season and then won a one game playoff to get in as the Wild Card. They ultimately got swept in the World Series, but the fact they made it that far after producing pedestrian results for the majority of the season was an incredible story.

 

Yes, talk about momentum, winning 13 of their last 14 games just to force a one game play-in game vs the Padres, Who the Brewers had beaten the previous day in a come from behind win, just to get the Rockies that game. The Rockies walked off the Padres 9-8 with Matt Holliday scoring the game-winning run. They then swept the Phillies in 3, the DBacks in 4, and when the dust had settled, 21 wins 1 loss. They were talent wise inferior to the teams they beat, but their manager, Clint Hurdle, imo, did one of, if not the best motivational, managing jobs of all time. But unfortunately had to wait a ridiculously long time, I think 7 or 8 days to play again, and with all their momentum gone got swept by the better team, the Red Sox.

 

What’s the old baseball saying? Momentum is only as good as the next days starting pitcher? I believe the Rockies of 07 blew that out of the water.

[tmwiese55]

I also don't think his take in this discussion right now was really bad at all. We're a barely .500 team that has had it's pitching staff get blasted all year. Seems pretty mediocre to me.

 

Doesn't mean they should give up. Cubs have left the door wide open. We have huge areas we could improve, do it and get hot at the right time and anything can happen. Just slightly better mediocrity from the SP and adding two BP arms in trades would make a mountain of difference.

[Eye Black]

At the All Star break...

 

The entire NL Central is separate from top-to-bottom by just 4.5 games.

 

In the other 5 divisions across MLB there isn’t a single second place team that is within 5 games of their division lead.

 

Here is how far behind the SECOND PLACE teams are in the other divisions...

 

AL Central - Indians (5.5 GB)

 

NL East - Nationals (6.0 GB)

 

AL East - Rays (6.5 GB)

 

AL West - A’s (7.5 GB)

 

NL West - Diamondbacks (13.5 GB)

 

 

I don’t know how I didn’t notice it earlier, but the entire NL Central is closer to the division lead than any of the other second place teams in baseball. That seems wild.

 

I think fans of NL Central teams are in for a competitive and stressful last 2.5 months to the season.

[MrTPlush]

2011 team wasn’t anything special until the last two months. Probably really similar record wise at this venture of the season.

 

Despite discussions around here making it seem we are 10 games under and in last place we are actually half a game out of first place.

[Jopal78]

FWIW the odds makers put the Brewers chances at a World Series win at 22:1. The only NL teams with better odds were the Dodgers, Braves and Cubs. The Nationals were right behind the Brewers at 23:1.

 

You can conclude the bookies in Vegas believe it’s most likely the Dodgers, Braves and Cubs win their Divisions and the Brewers and Nationals make the playoffs as Wild Cards.

[Baldkin]

2011 team wasn’t anything special until the last two months. Probably really similar record wise at this venture of the season.

 

Despite discussions around here making it seem we are 10 games under and in last place we are actually half a game out of first place.

 

2011 at the ASB, the team was 49-43. They lost their first two after the break, then proceeded to go 36-12 over their next 48 games, to bring the record to 85-57.

 

I wouldn't mind a run like that this year

[Wahoo Maniac]

People think the Brewers are mediocre because they look at the teams record without any context. We play in the toughest division in baseball where 5 teams are beating up on each other. The Reds are in last place with 41 wins and their win % is better than 8 teams in MLB (that's almost 2 full divisions worth of teams). This team isn't close to mediocre.

 

Looking at something on the surface and believing that's reality is what this site does and this is another prime example of that.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

People think the Brewers are mediocre because they look at the teams record without any context. We play in the toughest division in baseball where 5 teams are beating up on each other. The Reds are in last place with 41 wins and their win % is better than 8 teams in MLB (that's almost 2 full divisions worth of teams). This team isn't close to mediocre.

 

Looking at something on the surface and believing that's reality is what this site does and this is another prime example of that.

 

I agree with you fully, but I think your point could have been easily made without including that last little bit that seemingly was only included in an attempt to rile up other posters.