2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion

[adambr2]

I am not too surprised that many are picking the Cubs to win the division. I would have put us around the same odds before the Kimbrel deal and after the Kimbrel signing I would give them the slight edge. They have four high end bats in Rizzo, Bryant, Baez and Contreras, and the rest of the lineup behind those 4 are pretty decent. Their bullpen once Kimbrel is full go, should be pretty decent.

 

With that said, their depth in general stinks. Their average starting pitcher age is about 67, and guys like Bote and Caratini could come crashing back down to earth anytime. They don't have great injury insurance in the minors. They're not going to get a bunch of David Bote miracle performances every year. Like always, I would expect they'll improve at the deadline by taking on salary that other teams don't want and spending money they say they don't have. They don't have much of a farm to deal from, so they'll continue to make the Hamels type deals at the deadline and probably luck out with it like they always do.

 

Speaking of Hamels, they are walking on some eggshells with that rotation with the depth they have. It's a durable bunch to be sure, but at the age of those guys it could come crashing down via injuries or regression at any time.

 

They really count on great starting pitching to win, they need their starting 5 healthy and effective. Any disruption to that and they could really struggle. Not that our starters aren't valuable, but we really don't count on them to win. We can deal with injuries to our rotation and it just doesn't move the needle back much like it would for them.

 

Obviously we would be screwed with any extended absence from Yelich, or to a lesser extent Hader or Grandal, but everyone else we can cover fairly well with depth. All in all I wouldn't be shocked to see either team win the Central and I expect both teams in the playoffs just like last year.

[sveumrules]

Hardly definitive, but there is a who will win the NL Central poll up at MLBTR right now & results are currently around 42% MKE, 39% CHI, 8% STL, 8% CIN & 3% PIT.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Still fully expect STL to make it interesting

[KeithStone53151]

Hardly definitive, but there is a who will win the NL Central poll up at MLBTR right now & results are currently around 42% MKE, 39% CHI, 8% STL, 8% CIN & 3% PIT.

 

I feel like I'd put odds right now at 40% chicago, 30% Milwaukee, 20% St Louis, and 5% for the other 2. So that poll is a bit surprising. Those odds are based on my personal assumption that Kimbrel is going to be a sub-2 era pitcher. I know many disagree, that's what I'm expecting though. I'll add if the Cubs have even 1 starting pitching injury, we become the favorites. I know they have Montgomery and can technically trade for one...problem is their farm is ugly and they might have to trade from the major league roster. Maybe they could trade their top 5 prospects for Mike Leake or something I guess.

[KeithStone53151]

Finally! The Cubs have an injury to starting pitching. Hendricks hit the DL a couple days ago with shoulder inflammation. Will be fun to see how they try to fill that void.

[sveumrules]

Playoff Odds currently somewhere around...

 

FG: 61%

538: 73%

BRef: 85%

 

Since I posted these on June 3rd we have lost a home series to the Marlins & a road series to the Giants, two of the worst teams in baseball, bringing our current Playoff Odds to somewhere around...

 

FG: 60%

538: 67%

BRef: 81%

[BruisedCrew]

With the season almost half over, and all but two teams in the NL within 3.5 games of a playoff spot, would you say you are more or less optimistic/hopeful about the Brewers’ playoff chances than you were at the start of the season?

 

I have to go with less optimistic mainly because of the glaring problems with the pitching staff, especially the starters. I don’t think anyone can argue with a straight face that the frequency of short starts can’t continue, and it’s hard to see where the needed improvement is going to come from.

 

The offense has its holes too, with Shaw, Aguilar, and Cain all showing no signs of returning even to the lower end of what was expected from them. Hiura’s return might help some, but the offense has been too dependent on Yelich, Moustakas, and Grandal, and needs others to step up if any of them have injuries or cold streaks.

 

The plus one run differential hints at a team that is playing at a level closer to a .500 team than one that can win the 90 games that will probably be needed to make the playoffs. The playoff hopes likely hinge on whether the Brewers are able to make a personnel move or two to firm up the roster for the stretch run.

[Eye Black]

All of the teams in the NL Central have a losing road record this season, and the last place Pirates actually have the best road record of the group. It is the only division in baseball that doesn’t have a single team with a winning record away from home.

 

[KeithStone53151]

I'm intrigued to see what Houser does on Wednesday in the rotation. According to fangraphs, he's throwing a legit 4 pitch mix out of the bullpen. 66% fastball, 13% slider, 15% curve, 6% change. If he's going to go a 2nd and especially a 3rd time through the order, he'll probably have to mix in a bit more offspeed. I'll be super curious to see how that looks.

 

I really don't think the rotation is a reason for such alarms. A few guys aren't performing, but we have piles of other options. We are trying Houser, we have Wilkerson in long relief who can jump into the rotation, GG should be back soon, and Burnes/Peralta could re-figure things out in AAA over the next month and become options. If you remember, a month or 2 in AAA for Woodruff last year did wonders for him...he came back up a monster out of the bullpen.

 

As close as the standings are, I think many teams make a decisive decision around mid-July and many teams will look to sell.

[sveumrules]

With the season almost half over, and all but two teams in the NL within 3.5 games of a playoff spot, would you say you are more or less optimistic/hopeful about the Brewers’ playoff chances than you were at the start of the season?

 

I'd say I'm equally optimistic.

 

At the start if the year the only NL team that looked like a guaranteed postseason team was the Dodgers & through this juncture they are still the only NL team that looks like a certain postseason entrant.

 

For every other team in the NL trying to compete for the postseason it was essentially a coin flip. For reference here are 538's preseason playoff odds (from OP), their current numbers & the difference.

 

LAD 79/99 (+20)

WAS 59/31 (-28)

MIL 46/55 (+9)

STL 44/37 (-7)

NYM 42/17 (-25)

PHI 39/29 (-10)

CHI 38/63 (+25)

ATL 37/86 (+49)

COL 34/34 (0)

PIT 21/7 (-14)

ARI 21/20 (-1)

CIN 18/16 (-2)

SDP 14/5 (-9)

SFG 6/0 (-6)

MIA 1/0 (-1)

 

The East has underwhelmed to this point outside of ATL, so they have shot up. The Central has played out about as expected. The Cubs performance to this point has answered some of their questions coming into the season, while our performance has created more questions, so they've passed us up momentarily, while STL has also underwhelmed. The West is playing out pretty much exactly to expectations with LAD looking like even more of a juggernaut than was previously assumed.

[Fear The Chorizo]

All of the teams in the NL Central have a losing road record this season, and the last place Pirates actually have the best road record of the group. It is the only division in baseball that doesn’t have a single team with a winning record away from home.

 

 

What stands out to me is all 5 teams in the division are within 5 losses of each other in the standings - really paints the picture of the division being muddled with a collection of good/not great teams that all have flaws. Health and teams' abilities to make moves to fill holes on their rosters by end of July will be the difference.

 

There were threads asking whether the Cards were dead and assuming the Reds and Pirates were afterthoughts - I doubt there will be any afterthoughts in this division until late August at the earliest.

[Jopal78]

I doubt there will be any afterthoughts in this division until late August

 

 

Except the trade deadline is 7/31. The Reds and Pirates will unload their players on expiring contracts.

 

Teams like the D-Backs who have played way under their Pythagorean will have some hard decisions to make if they don’t turn it around in the next four months

[sveumrules]

ZIPS offers an updated look at the NL playoff race as we approach the halfway point, giving us a 64.4% chance at making the postseason...

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-zips-almost-midseason-update-national-league/

 

Excerpted Blurb..."While the Brewers aren’t a depressing franchise, their use of Keston Hiura and Travis Shaw is a real head-scratcher...ZiPS estimates that starting Shaw instead of Hiura over the rest of the season costs the Brewers about a tenth of a playoff appearance. That’s not negligible.

[Eye Black]

It’s the last day of June and if the playoffs started today the National League playoffs would consist of the exact same five teams as last season. The only difference from last year’s playoff bracket is the Brewers and Cubs would be swapped. The Brewers and Rockies would play in the wild card game, and the Braves, Dodgers, Cubs would be the division winners.

 

Many teams are currently chasing closely behind for a wild card spot including the Phillies (1.0 GB), Padres (1.5 GB), Dbacks (2.0 GB), Nationals (2.5 GB), Cardinals (3.0 GB), Pirates (4.0 GB).

 

The only National League teams that truly look like “sellers” at this point in time are the Marlins and Giants with the Mets trending towards that territory. The Reds are a good week or two away from being right in the middle of the wild card mix.

[Eye Black]

The Brewers started the month of June with two wins against the Pirates and finished the month of June with two wins against the Pirates. It wasn’t pretty in between, but they finished the month of June going 13-13 overall.

 

Heading to July 1st the Brewers are tied for 1st place in the NL Central. Regardless of what’s transpired to this point the Brewers remain in a position to have a special summer over the next three months.

 

[Fear The Chorizo]

June has been a slog for the Crew compared to what I think we were all hoping with the month's opponents, but honestly if I'm a cub fan I feel even worse about their current situation. 2 of their 5 starters on the dl, basically no starting pitching depth to draw from, Lester is scuffling of late...they actually need to lean on Darvish alot to get through the next 4-6 weeks in good shape.

 

At times they can still mash, but their pitching has taken a big hit over the last couple weeks. They've had decent success with a few youngsters they just brought in to shore up the pen, but let's see how they settle in once there's a decent amount of mlb scouting done on their approach.

[brewmann04]

I just like to think what DS must do to add to this team.

[pitchleague]

I do kind of worry about the Cubs pitching situation. Mainly because if they are still scuffling but hanging in the race by the end of the month, I'm pretty sure that they will make some big moves this year so they don't get taken over by the Brewers (or Cardinals) for the second year in a row. The question is, what do they really have in the minors to deal for some stud pitchers?

 

Heck, do WE even have the goods to make such a deal work? Hmmmmmmm

[Fear The Chorizo]

I do kind of worry about the Cubs pitching situation. Mainly because if they are still scuffling but hanging in the race by the end of the month, I'm pretty sure that they will make some big moves this year so they don't get taken over by the Brewers (or Cardinals) for the second year in a row. The question is, what do they really have in the minors to deal for some stud pitchers?

 

Heck, do WE even have the goods to make such a deal work? Hmmmmmmm

 

The answers to both of your questions is yes - the trouble for both teams is if they get in bidding wars over a specific pitcher with another organization that has a deeper bench of well-regarded prospects. Then they're going to have to give up several from the top of their prospect lists to get a player they want, which would cause plenty of handwringing. With the NL as muddled as it appears to be past the Dodgers, I'm not sure if that is going to lead to a bunch of teams trying to outbid each other for specific trade targets, or if it could actually suppress the trade market a bit and have everyone sitting on their hands until the last minute and wind up with quite a few guys perceived to be on the trading block staying put. It'll be an interesting 5 weeks for sure, seeing that the waiver deadline is also now set up for 7/31.

 

Despite the overall pessimistic preseason rankings the Brewers' farm system received, it seems like there are actually quite a few Brewer prospects having solid years on both the pitching and position player fronts. Without a doubt there are also Brewer prospects having bad 2019's, too. The Brewers' organizational prospect strength is still A+ and below, but they also continue to have guys with lower talent ceilings develop to the point of being able to contribute at the MLB level - it's definitely not the focal point of a minor league system, but their AAA, AA, A+, and A affiliates have a combined record that is 38 games above 0.500.

[Brew crew 92]

Mid-Season power rankings:

 

1.) Dodgers > should win 105+, can someone steal the pennant from these guys?

 

2.) Braves > pitching not scary(yet) chemistry, great fundamentals, clutch hitting, great manager.

 

3.) Brewers > distant 3rd, but could be a dominant team again later in year, have $ And or prospects to improve big time at the deadline.

 

4.) Cubbies > really hate this team, fans, city, ballpark. But they still have a good team, but like last year crew has their number.

 

5.) Rockies > will improve at the deadline enough for the wild card, potentially, the worst team ever to finish the season playing at.

 

6.) Cardinals > Mo in trouble, trades and signings have been dreadful.

 

7.) Phillies > They will also improve at the deadline, but their manager will hold them back again.

 

8.) Reds > even though they sell Roark and Puig, Wood slides into rotation, this team could still surprise.

 

9.) D-Backs > to me, overachieving, but have pieces to sell.

 

10.) Padres > 3 years from Juggernaut.

 

11.) Nats > Dusty should be managing this team.

 

12.) Pirates > poor defense and big time sellers at the deadline or I’d have them higher with Hurdle.

 

13.) Mets > That’s what they deserve for hiring an agent as architect.

 

14.) Marlins > tremendous Organizational pitching depth will start to pay off at some point

 

15.) Giants > wow are they old and decrepit, Farhan has his work cut out, although having trillions of dollars at his disposal should help.

[BruisedCrew]

Hendricks is coming off the DL so it’s just Hamels now.

 

Getting Kimbrel up to speed will have a positive cascading effect on their bullpen.

 

The Cubs offense is much better than the Brewers.

 

The Cubs have had a slog in June too, but they had a significantly tougher schedule. They aren’t unbeatable, but they have to be a big favorite over the Brewers, especially if Hamels isn’t out too long. If nothing else they have a big advantage in the head to head games because they can throw out those lefties to castrate the Brewers offense.

 

I wouldn’t rule out the Reds making a run at the top. They have a solid pitching staff and their offense could get a boost with Babe Gennett returning to the lineup. The Brewers are going to have their hands full getting even two wins from them this week.

[Brew crew 92]

Hendricks is coming off the DL so it’s just Hamels now.

 

Getting Kimbrel up to speed will have a positive cascading effect on their bullpen.

 

The Cubs offense is much better than the Brewers.

 

The Cubs have had a slog in June too, but they had a significantly tougher schedule. They aren’t unbeatable, but they have to be a big favorite over the Brewers, especially if Hamels isn’t out too long. If nothing else they have a big advantage in the head to head games because they can throw out those lefties to castrate the Brewers offense.

 

I wouldn’t rule out the Reds making a run at the top. They have a solid pitching staff and their offense could get a boost with Babe Gennett returning to the lineup. The Brewers are going to have their hands full getting even two wins from them this week.

 

Cubbies better offense > Yes. But the crew can improve theirs internally(Freitas Grisham Dubon) and at the deadline to match or exceed. And we have more $ and prospect capital to spend than they do at the deadline. Reds gonna be a problem > Yes. Imo a split should be welcomed.

[JosephC]

Surprising what a big nothing Goldschmidt has been for the Cardinals so far. His slash line in June was a pretty miserable .181/.274/.309/.583. Who would have thought he'd be so mediocre (.336 OBP/.741 OPS) through the first three months of the season?

[Fear The Chorizo]

Hendricks is coming off the DL so it’s just Hamels now.

 

Getting Kimbrel up to speed will have a positive cascading effect on their bullpen.

 

The Cubs offense is much better than the Brewers.

 

The Cubs have had a slog in June too, but they had a significantly tougher schedule. They aren’t unbeatable, but they have to be a big favorite over the Brewers, especially if Hamels isn’t out too long. If nothing else they have a big advantage in the head to head games because they can throw out those lefties to castrate the Brewers offense.

 

I wouldn’t rule out the Reds making a run at the top. They have a solid pitching staff and their offense could get a boost with Babe Gennett returning to the lineup. The Brewers are going to have their hands full getting even two wins from them this week.

 

I wouldn't rule out any of the NL Central clubs getting hot enough to win the division - there is very limited separation between 1st and last, and none of the teams are playing well enough to just win 22 of their next 30.

 

And BTW, the cubs' offense is just 0.008 OPS points better than the Brewers and has scored a grand total of 20 more runs than them. While I agree they are probably the better offensive club, it's not like they are overwhelmingly better.

[BruisedCrew]

Surprising what a big nothing Goldschmidt has been for the Cardinals so far. His slash line in June was a pretty miserable .181/.274/.309/.583. Who would have thought he'd be so mediocre (.336 OBP/.741 OPS) through the first three months of the season?

 

Just think how mediocre that would look if you took out what he did against the Brewers.

 

He needs another series with the Crew to recharge his batteries.