2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion

[OldHeidelberg]

The Brewers roster construction is odd. They had a poor run differential last year and it looks to be similar this year. When you are successful in something using unconventional methods, that's going to throw off statistical modeling because it doesn't know how to account for what you're doing.

 

 

I thought we decided the run differential thing was due to our lack of quality pour it on players.

[homer]

On May 1st the Cardinals were in 1st place in the NL Central a with a 3.0 game lead on the Cubs and a 4.0 game lead on the Brewers. They had the best record in all of baseball at 20-10. Since that date they’ve gone 11-22 and now trail both the Brewers and Cubs by 5.5 games.

 

This is your finest post.

[SeaBass]

True or False:

 

The current 5 playoff teams (Dodgers, Brewers, Phillies, Cubs and Braves), will be the 5 playoff teams at the end of the season.

True.

 

I think the Braves and Phillies have favorable enough schedules, as do the Brewers and Cubs.

 

NL West teams have a killer path, multiple games against the Dodgers juggernaut, beat up on each other, a dash of playing AL East teams in interleague and finally also facing the likely playoff contenders in the NL East and Central. Tough times. It can be done they're just playing on expert mode for a chance at a wild card because the Dodgers are looking like a lock for best record in the NL.

[sveumrules]

True or False:

 

The current 5 playoff teams (Dodgers, Brewers, Phillies, Cubs and Braves), will be the 5 playoff teams at the end of the season.

 

I'll go with false.

 

Last year on June 10 the five NL playoff teams would have been Washington, Atlanta, Milwaukee, Chicago & Arizona.

[stalton]

If Tom Verducci thinks the Brewers at 8 games over 500 at the time should be in survival mode, I'd wonder how many games over 500 it will take for him to think the Brewers are doing "alright"?

[tmwiese55]

Generally speaking so far I think it's shaking out a bit better than last year in that at least no one else in West should really be a threat for the playoffs. Note that I say 'should', I know things can change quickly, especially have my eye on SD since they're a young team that could take off. But just saying compared to last year with Col and AZ all in the battle until the end but now they seemingly won't be. WAS also seems to have not rebounded to become a threat whereas last year they were better. Overall the fewer teams involved the better.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Cubs have a fun road trip to watch this week against some good competition (@ Rockies, @ LAD) - by the end of it it'll be 17 straight days with games for them. I'd imagine Kimbrel may join them towards the end of it, too. During the same stretch the Brewers have a pair against the 'Stros followed by Giants, and two off days starting tonight. Seems like a good time to try and get a little bump in the standings if they play well.

[KeithStone53151]

Generally speaking so far I think it's shaking out a bit better than last year in that at least no one else in West should really be a threat for the playoffs. Note that I say 'should', I know things can change quickly, especially have my eye on SD since they're a young team that could take off. But just saying compared to last year with Col and AZ all in the battle until the end but now they seemingly won't be. WAS also seems to have not rebounded to become a threat whereas last year they were better. Overall the fewer teams involved the better.

 

Mets, Nats, Pirates, Cards, Rockies, Dbacks, Padres. All those teams are a good week of baseball from being very close to us in the standings. I can understand feeling like you have a 4-5 game lead on most of those teams, but that's a lot of teams that are very reasonably close to us...and most of them have much better minor league talent than us and can easily add if they can go on a bit of a run up to the deadline. This isn't like the AL whereas the 5 playoff teams have pretty much been known since the first month of the season.

[tmwiese55]

Generally speaking so far I think it's shaking out a bit better than last year in that at least no one else in West should really be a threat for the playoffs. Note that I say 'should', I know things can change quickly, especially have my eye on SD since they're a young team that could take off. But just saying compared to last year with Col and AZ all in the battle until the end but now they seemingly won't be. WAS also seems to have not rebounded to become a threat whereas last year they were better. Overall the fewer teams involved the better.

 

Mets, Nats, Pirates, Cards, Rockies, Dbacks, Padres. All those teams are a good week of baseball from being very close to us in the standings. I can understand feeling like you have a 4-5 game lead on most of those teams, but that's a lot of teams that are very reasonably close to us...and most of them have much better minor league talent than us and can easily add if they can go on a bit of a run up to the deadline. This isn't like the AL whereas the 5 playoff teams have pretty much been known since the first month of the season.

 

Oh yea for sure it's still way too early to be considering anything easy or a lock. Like I said key word was 'should' in all that. Plus really I was just comparing to last year, which this year is shaking out better. Not trying to say anything is a lock or easy as one cold spell or a Yeli injury could be a killer. But this time last year you had 3 teams in the West, 3 in the East. Plus us Cubs, Cards, Pirates. The numbers are just less this year, so far, so it's looking better.

[Brew crew 92]

Generally speaking so far I think it's shaking out a bit better than last year in that at least no one else in West should really be a threat for the playoffs. Note that I say 'should', I know things can change quickly, especially have my eye on SD since they're a young team that could take off. But just saying compared to last year with Col and AZ all in the battle until the end but now they seemingly won't be. WAS also seems to have not rebounded to become a threat whereas last year they were better. Overall the fewer teams involved the better.

 

Mets, Nats, Pirates, Cards, Rockies, Dbacks, Padres. All those teams are a good week of baseball from being very close to us in the standings. I can understand feeling like you have a 4-5 game lead on most of those teams, but that's a lot of teams that are very reasonably close to us...and most of them have much better minor league talent than us and can easily add if they can go on a bit of a run up to the deadline. This isn't like the AL whereas the 5 playoff teams have pretty much been known since the first month of the season.

 

Agree that most of the aforementioned teams have better minor league talent, and could improve at the deadline if they chose too, the problem is their major league teams are far weaker than us or the teams they are chasing. The Mets and Nats are far inferior to the Braves and Phillies.

 

The pirates pitching injuries and lack of depth give them no chance, the cards could contend for the wild card especially if they buy at the deadline.

 

While in the west, the Dbacks are playing over their talent slightly, and have no chance, while the Rockies if they can somehow play better on the road will become a serious wild card threat.

 

So in reality, only 2 of those teams have a realistic chance at the playoffs and at best they would be a wild card team, and I’d put the odds of the cards at less than 50% and the Rockies at less than 40%.

 

The Brewers, if they win the central, will have done so with the toughest schedule of all, with the Twins being their “rivalry” team, to go with arguably the toughest interleague teams top to bottom, as well as their division being the best top to bottom.

[KeithStone53151]

 

Mets, Nats, Pirates, Cards, Rockies, Dbacks, Padres. All those teams are a good week of baseball from being very close to us in the standings. I can understand feeling like you have a 4-5 game lead on most of those teams, but that's a lot of teams that are very reasonably close to us...and most of them have much better minor league talent than us and can easily add if they can go on a bit of a run up to the deadline. This isn't like the AL whereas the 5 playoff teams have pretty much been known since the first month of the season.

 

Agree that most of the aforementioned teams have better minor league talent, and could improve at the deadline if they chose too, the problem is their major league teams are far weaker than us or the teams they are chasing. The Mets and Nats are far inferior to the Braves and Phillies.

 

The pirates pitching injuries and lack of depth give them no chance, the cards could contend for the wild card especially if they buy at the deadline.

 

While in the west, the Dbacks are playing over their talent slightly, and have no chance, while the Rockies if they can somehow play better on the road will become a serious wild card threat.

 

So in reality, only 2 of those teams have a realistic chance at the playoffs and at best they would be a wild card team, and I’d put the odds of the cards at less than 50% and the Rockies at less than 40%.

 

The Brewers, if they win the central, will have done so with the toughest schedule of all, with the Twins being their “rivalry” team, to go with arguably the toughest interleague teams top to bottom, as well as their division being the best top to bottom.

 

You're severely downplaying the talent on the Nationals. That roster is stacked, what team has pitching that can match up to Scherzer/Stras/Corbin. A ton of impact talent in their lineup. Every team in the NL should be afraid if the Nats can get above 500 and then add 2 really good relievers.

 

And as much as some of those teams don't match up with the Brewers/Dodgers/Cubs/Phillies/Braves, they aren't THAT far off. And any team can get hot over stretches. The Brewers on paper last year were not as good as the Cubs. The Brewers played in October while the Cubs went home. Say one of the above 7-8 teams gets hot over the next couple months and is 3-5 games back in their division...and then adds 2 impact talents at their weakest positions. Maybe that's enough for them to be equal or better.

[Brew crew 92]

The Nats have the worst manager in baseball, no team depth, terrible team defense and bad team chemistry, to go along with the worst pen in the NL.Going on 220+ games of underperforming their perceived talent level. Granted, they have 3 of the best starters, and great hitting talent, so they can probably win more than they lose when they get healthier, but imo that’s best case, and I believe they are gonna be sellers at the deadline, at least enough for Rizzo to retool.

[Oxy]

The Nats have the worst manager in baseball, no team depth, terrible team defense and bad team chemistry, to go along with the worst pen in the NL.Going on 220+ games of underperforming their perceived talent level. Granted, they have 3 of the best starters, and great hitting talent, so they can probably win more than they lose when they get healthier, but imo that’s best case, and I believe they are gonna be sellers at the deadline, at least enough for Rizzo to retool.

 

Agreed. They are the perfect example of a team who assembles the highest WAR guys they can get at each individual position in order to create a whole that is far less than the sum of its parts. I don't get the impression that winning the game is as important as putting up stats and picking up paychecks for those guys.

[Ennder]

I feel like the Cubs have hit their 90th percentile projection so far. The entire rotation has stayed healthy which is a big deal since they have no depth at all. The lineup has not only been healthy but it has mostly produced at the upper end of expectations. Baez has repeated even with all the K's, Bryants shoulder has held up, Contreras has taken a step up, Bote has actually been good etc. They have had a bit of an injury stack in the bullpen but more or less the Cubs are playing at the top of their range.

The Brewers are much harder to read because they have so many guys playing way below expectations and many playing way over.

The Cardinals are at like the 30th percentile of their outcomes, bunch of injuries, bunch of guys having flat seasons.

 

I don't really feel like there is a clear favorite here, I think the Cubs are extremely vulnerable.

[Brew crew 92]

I feel like the Cubs have hit their 90th percentile projection so far. The entire rotation has stayed healthy which is a big deal since they have no depth at all. The lineup has not only been healthy but it has mostly produced at the upper end of expectations. Baez has repeated even with all the K's, Bryants shoulder has held up, Contreras has taken a step up, Bote has actually been good etc. They have had a bit of an injury stack in the bullpen but more or less the Cubs are playing at the top of their range.

The Brewers are much harder to read because they have so many guys playing way below expectations and many playing way over.

The Cardinals are at like the 30th percentile of their outcomes, bunch of injuries, bunch of guys having flat seasons.

 

I don't really feel like there is a clear favorite here, I think the Cubs are extremely vulnerable.

 

While I agree with a lot of what you say here, I believe the cubs are protected from injury to their rotation with Chatwood overcoming his wildness and being a real weapon again that can slide into the rotation and also with Montgomery I think that gives their rotation some injury protection.

 

Your take on the crew is a little off I believe. Not sure if they have as many players playing above their expected outcomes as below.

 

Much above: Moose Davies

Above: Grandal Arcia Houser

Below: Chacín Claudio Pina

Much below: Shaw Aguilar Cain Burnes

 

The rest I believe are about where they should be including Yelich.

I believe there’s a lot of upside left with this team, more so than than any NL team.

[MrTPlush]

I don't think we have that many overachievers. Other than Davies I can't look at anyone and think, "Yup, dude is prepared for major regression.". Maybe Moustakas I guess? Grandal, Arcia, and Houser are all believable and can easily do what they have done so far. I guess I was more of a believer in Grandal having a big year here so I suppose one could point to him for some regression.

 

Eventually we will get a good rotation with stability. Whether that happen internally or with the help of outside acquisitions. Offensively We are probably set unless they feel an upgrade at 1B is possible/needed. Bullpen help is always needed and I am sure will happen like any other year where we are competing.

 

Hard to not be pumped if you are a Brewers fan so far. Pirates and Reds aren't the scary darkhorses they were touted as and the Cardinals have yet to really be much of a force like some thought. Cubs? They have been good, but not great and that is surprising with how well things have gone for them. Phillies have obviously been good, but no other teams have really jumped out of the gates fast that one wasn't expecting. The wild cards should be pretty attainable as a fallback. I don't see one needing 92+ wins to grab one of those slots.

[jjfanec]

While I agree with a lot of what you say here, I believe the cubs are protected from injury to their rotation with Chatwood overcoming his wildness and being a real weapon again that can slide into the rotation and also with Montgomery I think that gives their rotation some injury protection.

 

Look closer at Chatwood's stats. Nothing tells you he would be good as a starter. His WHIP is right around 1.4 recently. Guys are getting on base against him at an impressive clip. His strikeouts are good but he is essentially giving up one hit an inning and walking a guy every other inning as a reliever. That wont play well 2 or 3 times through the order. Montgomery has been a disaster this year

[jjfanec]

Braun should on the under achievers list too. His WAR is .1. His OPS is .784. Gamel has been more valuable with a WAR of .8. Braun has hit some big home runs but he hasnt been good. He has actually been brutal against left handed pitching. OPS of just .658. His career is .986. He used to crush lhp. That needs to return in a lineup with so many lefties. Oddly Gamel also has slightly reverse splits with an OPS against lefties higher than righties but that is weighted by really high BABIP vs lefties.

[MrTPlush]

Braun should on the under achievers list too. His WAR is .1. His OPS is .784. Gamel has been more valuable with a WAR of .8. Braun has hit some big home runs but he hasnt been good. He has actually been brutal against left handed pitching. OPS of just .658. His career is .986. He used to crush lhp. That needs to return in a lineup with so many lefties. Oddly Gamel also has slightly reverse splits with an OPS against lefties higher than righties but that is weighted by really high BABIP vs lefties.

 

Hard to call 35 year old Braun an underachiever...I mean his overall stat are comparable to last year and at this point anything can decline and not be like it once was.

 

Agreed on Chatwood. 5.0 BB/9 is horrid and not very good. Someone can take any previous "wild" Brewer and they will probably be better than that. It is actually the second worst mark for a season in his career (so far). He limits hits a little bit, but it doesn't make up for a not so good K/9, HR/9, or the walks galore. That being said he has gotten results doing it before (2016). Even if he puts up a 4.69 ERA like 2017 that isn't terrible if he is replacing a back end guy short term...but long term or if he replaces one of their better guys...yikes.

[OldHeidelberg]

Braun should on the under achievers list too. His WAR is .1. His OPS is .784. Gamel has been more valuable with a WAR of .8. Braun has hit some big home runs but he hasnt been good. He has actually been brutal against left handed pitching. OPS of just .658. His career is .986. He used to crush lhp. That needs to return in a lineup with so many lefties. Oddly Gamel also has slightly reverse splits with an OPS against lefties higher than righties but that is weighted by really high BABIP vs lefties.

 

I am sure his hitting against LHP will rebound, he missed a weekend against the Cubs with I think a hammy so we are in small sample size with his 63 AB against lefties. The defensive metrics used in WAR hate Braun, basically he is a 4 WAR guy at .900 OPS but that falls drastically to about 1 if he is an .800 guy. I am not sure about defense being that big of an impact for corner outfielders or 1B but I don't really understand it either. He is fine, been keeping his average around .270 only a matter of time before he has a homer binge and the numbers will look good again.

[jjfanec]

Braun should on the under achievers list too. His WAR is .1. His OPS is .784. Gamel has been more valuable with a WAR of .8. Braun has hit some big home runs but he hasnt been good. He has actually been brutal against left handed pitching. OPS of just .658. His career is .986. He used to crush lhp. That needs to return in a lineup with so many lefties. Oddly Gamel also has slightly reverse splits with an OPS against lefties higher than righties but that is weighted by really high BABIP vs lefties.

 

Hard to call 35 year old Braun an underachiever...I mean his overall stat are comparable to last year and at this point anything can decline and not be like it once was.

 

Agreed on Chatwood. 5.0 BB/9 is horrid and not very good. Someone can take any previous "wild" Brewer and they will probably be better than that. It is actually the second worst mark for a season in his career (so far). He limits hits a little bit, but it doesn't make up for a not so good K/9, HR/9, or the walks galore. That being said he has gotten results doing it before (2016). Even if he puts up a 4.69 ERA like 2017 that isn't terrible if he is replacing a back end guy short term...but long term or if he replaces one of their better guys...yikes.

 

I think mostly everyone was hoping for Braun to be better than last year. He under achieved last year too. Now this may be the hitter he is now but I still think is fair to say it is a disappointment. I think anything under an .800 OPS was going to be a disappointment for Braun. A big issue has been strike outs. He is striking out quite a bit more this year. If he can get that under control and start to hit lhp he will be fine. He is just a disappointment now

[KeithStone53151]

Seriously when are the Cubs going to have an injury at starting pitching? For years, they keep getting by with 5 SP and absolutely zero depth at the position. Montgomery can step in and be mediocre at best. Beyond that, they have nothing there. They'd bring up some nobody from AAA who'd for sure be bad, because their farm is worse trash than ours right now...especially for pitching.

 

As much as it sucks that the Cubs don't really have any hitters struggling, it just is what it is. Their lineup is good. Especially Rizzo this year, he looks insanely good at the plate. Contreras, Baez, and Bote will probably regress a bit as BABIP will catch up to them a bit...but not THAT much, and the rest of their lineup has numbers about where you'd expect given their talent level.

[MrTPlush]

Braun should on the under achievers list too. His WAR is .1. His OPS is .784. Gamel has been more valuable with a WAR of .8. Braun has hit some big home runs but he hasnt been good. He has actually been brutal against left handed pitching. OPS of just .658. His career is .986. He used to crush lhp. That needs to return in a lineup with so many lefties. Oddly Gamel also has slightly reverse splits with an OPS against lefties higher than righties but that is weighted by really high BABIP vs lefties.

 

Hard to call 35 year old Braun an underachiever...I mean his overall stat are comparable to last year and at this point anything can decline and not be like it once was.

 

Agreed on Chatwood. 5.0 BB/9 is horrid and not very good. Someone can take any previous "wild" Brewer and they will probably be better than that. It is actually the second worst mark for a season in his career (so far). He limits hits a little bit, but it doesn't make up for a not so good K/9, HR/9, or the walks galore. That being said he has gotten results doing it before (2016). Even if he puts up a 4.69 ERA like 2017 that isn't terrible if he is replacing a back end guy short term...but long term or if he replaces one of their better guys...yikes.

 

I think mostly everyone was hoping for Braun to be better than last year. He under achieved last year too. Now this may be the hitter he is now but I still think is fair to say it is a disappointment. I think anything under an .800 OPS was going to be a disappointment for Braun. A big issue has been strike outs. He is striking out quite a bit more this year. If he can get that under control and start to hit lhp he will be fine. He is just a disappointment now

 

Is he still hitting the ball hard like all the years past he has been a disappointment or does his mediocracy match his ball hitting advanced stats?

 

Interesting thing to note as he also has almost exactly half the ABS/PAs as last year, here are some numbers post swing change that was suppose to make him be more lucky (more HRs specifically). I doubled the 2019 number to reflect pace. 2018/2019:

 

Doubles: 25/18

HRs: 20/20

K Rate: 19%/22.6%

ISO: .215/.187

BABIP: .274/.318

 

I guess he has seen an increase in BABIP...but certainly the results didn't exactly spike as hoped. Thinking he is what he is at this point. Maybe some fluctuation here and there, but an .750-.800 OPS seems like the kind of guy he is.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Seriously when are the Cubs going to have an injury at starting pitching? For years, they keep getting by with 5 SP and absolutely zero depth at the position. Montgomery can step in and be mediocre at best. Beyond that, they have nothing there. They'd bring up some nobody from AAA who'd for sure be bad, because their farm is worse trash than ours right now...especially for pitching.

 

As much as it sucks that the Cubs don't really have any hitters struggling, it just is what it is. Their lineup is good. Especially Rizzo this year, he looks insanely good at the plate. Contreras, Baez, and Bote will probably regress a bit as BABIP will catch up to them a bit...but not THAT much, and the rest of their lineup has numbers about where you'd expect given their talent level.

 

It's frustrating, but an undervalued quality of starting pitching is durability - particularly with how today's game is shifting more heavily to bullpen usage. The Cubs have a thin but talented roster of veteran starters who have track records of being workhorses. Lester, Quintana, Hendricks, and Hamels have all demonstrated they can take the ball every 5th day consistently and pitch deep into games. Darvish is a wild card, but when he's healthy he's been a workhorse as well.

 

That being said, the Cubs sure had to pony up financially and with prospect capital to build that rotation - they've also had to spend heavily on those fronts for relievers. However, that's what big market teams get to do, and I'm sure they're totally fine with that considering it's propping up what is a trash heap of pitching talent across the rest of their organization. At some point all of these arms will fall off a cliff or a couple injuries are going to force them to scramble, but the Cubs will always be somewhat positioned to throw more $ at the problem to try and replace good production from the mound.

[brooks_quichenick]

Watching the Dodgers broadcast of this LAD vs CHC game and the announcers are talking about how they believe the Cubs will win the Central, Brewers surprisingly in 1st right now but by the end of the season yadda yadda yadda...

 

The road to the World Series will most likely go through LA, and as tough as that would be I would just love another shot at them in the postseason, that W would be as satisfying as it gets.