2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion

[adambr2]

I still think the rooting interest this weekend is Brewers sweep (obviously), then Cards get one more win and Cubs get the other two. I love the idea of two up on Chicago and only one behind St. Louis with six to go. That would be very good wildcard positioning and not an unbelievable chance at a game 163 for the division. First thing is first, though: beat the buccos.

 

I hate to say it, but at this point I don't see how you cannot root for the Cards to win out vs the Cubs. The odds of winning the division are so small and I want as much of a buffer as possible to ensure we make it into the Playoffs.

 

I'm with Harvey's on this one. If we sweep the Pirates, I have to believe a WC is all but assured barring a really terrible 6 game stretch. I think our playoff odds would be over 90% at that point. If i knew we'd get those 3, I think 2 is the perfect amount for Chicago to win. Chicago has 3 against the pirates, but also 3 in st louis. Those 3 will be much tougher games than the 3 home games. It definitely all starts with us continuing to scratch out wins.

 

Actually I think the 3 in St Louis will be much easier for the Cubs. If the Cards are up anything more than 3 on the rest of the division, they'll be laying down for the last series of the year. Absolutely nothing to play for. No way they'll risk injury to anyone significant if everything is already in hand. Key starters will rest and the last game or two you can be all but assured will be thrown by AAA players. It's quite possibly a Cubs' sweep.

 

Not saying the Cards winning isn't still the preferable outcome, but it's definitely something to keep in mind.

[Brew crew 92]

Cardinals can have the Central, as long as they keep beating the Cubbies. Get this WC clinched ASAP. No greed here.

[Lostpawn]

I still think the rooting interest this weekend is Brewers sweep (obviously), then Cards get one more win and Cubs get the other two. I love the idea of two up on Chicago and only one behind St. Louis with six to go. That would be very good wildcard positioning and not an unbelievable chance at a game 163 for the division. First thing is first, though: beat the buccos.

 

I hate to say it, but at this point I don't see how you cannot root for the Cards to win out vs the Cubs. The odds of winning the division are so small and I want as much of a buffer as possible to ensure we make it into the Playoffs.

 

This is the rational thing to root for - the Cubs getting demolished. It’s the Brewers’ easiest way, statistically, to ensure a playoff berth.

 

I understand the desire to win the division, but it’s a long shot, and if the Cubs win a lot that increases the chance that the Brewers miss the playoffs altogether.

[Ennder]

 

Well, I guess my take on this is: what I want or root for doesn’t change the outcome one lick. I might as well root for the best possible outcome, right? Unless I believe the Brewers, once in the playoffs, will have to beat the Dodgers at some point to get what I really want (a parade down, what, Wisconsin Avenue??? I just realized I’ve never even had to think about what a championship parade route would actually look like and got a little sad), then maybe I think the wildcard path makes sense. Easier to beat the Dodgers in 5 games rather than 7, since we already saw that movie last year. All things being equal, though, I think I still want the division so as to avoid the one-game scenario. I’ll root for that as long as it’s mathematically possible.

 

Being 1 AB away from beating the Dodgers last season didn't get you thinking? The Brewers matched them or maybe even outplayed them last year in the playoffs but just couldn't get that final hit.

[MrTPlush]

Cubs elimination number down to just 7 games

[homer]

[young guns]

Objects in mirror are farther than they appear.

[shanedog19]

I would love to see us +3 over the Cubs by the end of the weekend. They will likely sweep their series against the Pirates, and we could very easily go 1-2 against the Reds. That would still give us a 1 game cushion heading into that final weekend against the Rockies.

[adambr2]

I would love to see us +3 over the Cubs by the end of the weekend. They will likely sweep their series against the Pirates, and we could very easily go 1-2 against the Reds. That would still give us a 1 game cushion heading into that final weekend against the Rockies.

 

Trouble with this scenario is that the Cardinals almost assuredly have everything clinched heading into their final series against the Cubs and will be trotting out their AAA rosters for 3 games.

[MrTPlush]

I would love to see us +3 over the Cubs by the end of the weekend. They will likely sweep their series against the Pirates, and we could very easily go 1-2 against the Reds. That would still give us a 1 game cushion heading into that final weekend against the Rockies.

 

Trouble with this scenario is that the Cardinals almost assuredly have everything clinched heading into their final series against the Cubs and will be trotting out their AAA rosters for 3 games.

 

They would have to extend their lead on us. 3 game lead means they still gotta play serious at least the first game. If we narrow it to two games then they have to play serious every game except the last.

 

I also don’t think it is a given the Cubs sweep anyone at this point...they are struggling a lot.

[adambr2]

I would love to see us +3 over the Cubs by the end of the weekend. They will likely sweep their series against the Pirates, and we could very easily go 1-2 against the Reds. That would still give us a 1 game cushion heading into that final weekend against the Rockies.

 

Trouble with this scenario is that the Cardinals almost assuredly have everything clinched heading into their final series against the Cubs and will be trotting out their AAA rosters for 3 games.

 

They would have to extend their lead on us. 3 game lead means they still gotta play serious at least the first game. If we narrow it to two games then they have to play serious every game except the last.

 

I also don’t think it is a given the Cubs sweep anyone at this point...they are struggling a lot.

 

Right, but if we lost 2 out of 3 to the Reds that would be pretty likely. That's what I was assuming under his scenario, that we go 1 of 3 in Cincy.

 

The Reds are tough to figure out. I could see us sweeping easily or even getting swept. They're not the Pirates, but they can vary widely on either end of the spectrum. Hopefully we can get 2 out of 3.

[owbc]

The Mets are the only team that worries me for WC2. Playing well and a very easy schedule the rest of the way (especially if Atlanta has nothing to play for next weekend). I'm glad we have a cushion.

[HiAndTight]

I see Rizzo is back already for the Cubs...I know a lot of people are talking about the math and how it gets tough etc. I tend to look at these things in a shorter view, because then it doesn't seem as daunting, and it really isn't if you break it down this way...This is what i think we should want..(I know it's what I want). Cards win tonight...that gives the Brewers a 1 game lead over the Cubs...Now you have a little bit of a cushion over them..Brewers sweep the Pirates(which they should do), Cubs then win the next 3 from the cards(after tonight), all of a sudden you are tied for the division lead heading into the final week, and still have the one game cushion on the Cubs. That's a perfect scenario and not unrealistic at all, if you look at it that way.

 

I guess the cubs want it badly if they’re shooting Rizzo full of drugs so he can play I’m torn ankle ligaments

 

 

 

They need Dawson to get Maddon and the team Doc away from his ankle...and then force him to quit while they manage themselves!

[nodakfan17]

If the Brewers can win tonight and go +3 on the Cubs, I’ll probably root for the Cubs tomorrow. Otherwise, I’m with the crowd that doesn’t want to get too greedy.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Almost feel bad for the Cubs. Four consecutive one-run losses. It's not like they laid down.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Brewers would really have to cough this up at this point. 90% odds mid-game, probably 92-93 if they pull this off.

[MrTPlush]

I’d like at least a 3 game lead going into the week. 2 games would be nice, but definitely could mess that up. 4 games sounds nice though...

[adambr2]

I'm curious as to how much Washington will prioritize the WC1 if both teams are close down to the wire. Do they go all out to ensure they get the home game, or is it just about getting in to them?

 

I tend to think as long as they go into the last series of the season with a playoff spot secured, they will prioritize rest for their top arms (Scherzer, Corbin, etc.) first and worry about the #1 seed second.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I'd hope the Brewers would prioritize having Hader available over where the game is played, but that's me.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Scherzer's scheduled day is Monday. So he could go again on Saturday and be available out of the pen on Tuesday. I doubt that will happen.

 

I imagine the Nats hold him back. The issue then is just he's going to be on 7 days rest. Does that mean he will be fresh? Or rusty? I don't know.

 

Put it like this: I think you live with K's in an elimination game against Scherzer. You hope your depth can bullpen its way to six or seven scoreless or at least keep them at 2 runs. Then you can always win it late, even if Scherzer shuts you down.

 

Of course, they could throw Scherzer then Stras if they wanted to punt a potential Game 1 against LA.

 

Basically, you are going to have to hit good pitching. Hope the boys are up to it.

[adambr2]

Scherzer's scheduled day is Monday. So he could go again on Saturday and be available out of the pen on Tuesday. I doubt that will happen.

 

I imagine the Nats hold him back. The issue then is just he's going to be on 7 days rest. Does that mean he will be fresh? Or rusty? I don't know.

 

Put it like this: I think you live with K's in an elimination game against Scherzer. You hope your depth can bullpen its way to six or seven scoreless or at least keep them at 2 runs. Then you can always win it late, even if Scherzer shuts you down.

 

Of course, they could throw Scherzer then Stras if they wanted to punt a potential Game 1 against LA.

 

Basically, you are going to have to hit good pitching. Hope the boys are up to it.

 

Their bullpen is awful, but their rotation is scary good. They could go with any kind of combination of Scherzer/Strasburg/Corbin. I would guess they will try to ensure at least 2 of the 3 are available for a wild card game. Doesn't mean they will use them, but if they need to they will.

[adambr2]

If we finish with the exact same record as the Nats, they come to Miller Park, right? We won the head to head season series.

[Brew crew 92]

If we finish with the exact same record as the Nats, they come to Miller Park, right? We won the head to head season series.

 

That’s right.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Yes.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

In weird possibilities news...

 

The Cubs and Cards may well not play tomorrow. Forecast is bad. It would kind of awesome if we finished .5 games up on Stl for the division, and they had to fly to Wrigley on Monday to play the makeup game. Then you probably couldn't have the WC on Tuesday. Would be crazy scheduling havoc.