2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion

[jjfanec]

A few observations 26+% in:

 

- the Dodgers are the best team in Baseball, astros right behind them, followed by the Brewers, Cubbies, Cardinals.

 

- The 2 wild card teams will be the Cubbies and Cardinals

 

- No idea who the other playoff team will be between the Braves Phillies or Mets. Probably going with the best manager > Braves

 

While they may not keep it up the Twins deserve to be in the discussion right now. They have one of the best offenses in baseball and while their pitching isnt great they do have a young ace. The Rays, Yankees and Boston should all be in the discussion too. All those teams have a run differential of plus 20 or more

[Brew crew 92]

A few observations 26+% in:

 

- the Dodgers are the best team in Baseball, astros right behind them, followed by the Brewers, Cubbies, Cardinals.

 

- The 2 wild card teams will be the Cubbies and Cardinals

 

- No idea who the other playoff team will be between the Braves Phillies or Mets. Probably going with the best manager > Braves

 

While they may not keep it up the Twins deserve to be in the discussion right now. They have one of the best offenses in baseball and while their pitching isnt great they do have a young ace. The Rays, Yankees and Boston should all be in the discussion too. All those teams have a run differential of plus 20 or more

 

Ok, here’s my power rankings:

1.) Dodgers > ridiculous depth separates

2.) Astros > Great hitting team

3.) Brewers > Team only going to get better

4.) Cardinals > bullpen could get scary good

5.) Cubbies > bullpen & lack of depth hurt

6.) Rays > great front office

7.) Yankees > injuries sminjuries

8.) Twins > not as good as they appear

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Miller Park is such an advantage in this division as long as rivals have open air stadiums.

[KeithStone53151]

Miller Park is such an advantage in this division as long as rivals have open air stadiums.

 

Absolutely, very good chance the Cubs wear out down the stretch again. The Cubs have 2 off days between now and July 5th. 50 games in 52 days...barring one of their classic "rain-out/rest days" when it's 68 and sunny. That's a busy stretch.

[jjfanec]

Miller Park is such an advantage in this division as long as rivals have open air stadiums.

 

Absolutely, very good chance the Cubs wear out down the stretch again. The Cubs have 2 off days between now and July 5th. 50 games in 52 days...barring one of their classic "rain-out/rest days" when it's 68 and sunny. That's a busy stretch.

 

That is without any rain delays making it more games during that stretch. They could easily have a couple double headers or those two days used to make up games.

[Eye Black]

The Brewers are now 10-2 against the NL East with four more versus foes from the East over the next four days. With none of those games being against the Marlins yet the Brewers are setup nicely to own the East this season.

[PeaveyFury]

Which is impressive considering the relatively high expectations for 3 of the teams in that division.....

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Which is impressive considering the relatively high levels of unsubstantiated hype for 3 of the teams in that division.....

 

I fixed this There was a lot of East Coast bias surrounding those teams before this season. I'd say 4 teams were getting pretty major hype.

[PeaveyFury]

Probably not unfair. I think the Phils are legit, though. And the Mets continue to underperform their amazing rotation.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Probably not unfair. I think the Phils are legit, though. And the Mets continue to underperform their amazing rotation.

 

The Phils have all the talent, but so much of that team has turned over, I just wonder how long it's going to take for them to gel. They are the current guinea pig for if buying your way to a championship is feasible in today's MLB economic climate.

[Brew crew 92]

Probably not unfair. I think the Phils are legit, though. And the Mets continue to underperform their amazing rotation.

 

The Phils have all the talent, but so much of that team has turned over, I just wonder how long it's going to take for them to gel. They are the current guinea pig for if buying your way to a championship is feasible in today's MLB economic climate.

 

None of the east teams have good bullpens, or quality depth, especially pitching.

[Brew crew 92]

31% in, and some observations:

 

The playoff teams are pretty much set imo:

 

Dodgers Brewers Braves Cubbies Cardinals

 

1.) Dodgers- astounding depth and the best hitter.

2.) Brewers- will improve more than other teams.

3.) Cubbies- 1-8 the best, lack depth.

4.) Braves- great manager, chemistry, will improve too.

5.) Cardinals- great pitching depth, potential scary pen.

 

6.) Rockies- just miss.

7.) Phillies- bad Chemistry, bad manager.

8.) Reds- big time sellers at the deadline.

9.) Pirates- Hurdle best manager in baseball.

10.) Mets- bad manager, snakebite injuries.

11.) Padres- 2 years away.

12.) Nats- worst manager in baseball, big sellers.

13.) D-Backs- overachieving their talent level.

14.) Marlins- Organizational pitching best in baseball

15.) Giants- 5 years away.

[MrTPlush]

I could see it ending exactly how it is right now...except maybe Braves over the Phillies...but Phillies still in the WC.

 

The notable thing is the playoff contenders seem obvious

 

Dodgers

Brewers

Cubs

Braves

Cardinals

Phillies

 

Maybe some other teams hang out in contention, but I think the above are the real deals. Rockies might be a darkhorse, Pirates a real big dark horse.

[jjfanec]

Surprised by the lack of respect the dbacks are getting. They may be overachieving but their run differential is great and they have played 44 of their 50 games against teams .500 or better

[Roderick]

In my opinion the Nationals and the Marlins are going to suck and the Mets will struggle to get near .500 - so you can't count out the Phillies or the Braves both making it in. They can feast on that soft underbelly, while other teams grind down.

[JosephC]

Surprised by the lack of respect the dbacks are getting. They may be overachieving but their run differential is great and they have played 44 of their 50 games against teams .500 or better

 

Thing that could make the Diamondbacks scary is that they've had some relievers who have really under-performed so far. Archie Bradley = 4.29 ERA, 1.86 WHIP. Yoshihisa Hirano = 5.09 ERA, 1.42 WHIP. Get those guys going with Greg Holland who appears to be back on track (1.69 ERA, 1.06 WHIP) and then combine that with a Grienke/Weaver/Ray 1-2-3 punch in the rotation and that could be a plus-plus pitching staff late in the season and playoff time. I still question what that lineup will do over the long-haul, but those guys have got the job done so far. 4.92 runs per game to this point, just edges out the Brewers by the slightest of margins (Brewers at 4.90 runs per game). I still like the Brewers offense better over the long-haul...but we are up to the 50 game mark now so the sample size isn't that small anymore.

[BruisedCrew]

31% in, and some observations:

 

The playoff teams are pretty much set imo:

 

Dodgers Brewers Braves Cubbies Cardinals

 

1.) Dodgers- astounding depth and the best hitter.

2.) Brewers- will improve more than other teams.

3.) Cubbies- 1-8 the best, lack depth.

4.) Braves- great manager, chemistry, will improve too.

5.) Cardinals- great pitching depth, potential scary pen.

 

6.) Rockies- just miss.

7.) Phillies- bad Chemistry, bad manager.

8.) Reds- big time sellers at the deadline.

9.) Pirates- Hurdle best manager in baseball.

10.) Mets- bad manager, snakebite injuries.

11.) Padres- 2 years away.

12.) Nats- worst manager in baseball, big sellers.

13.) D-Backs- overachieving their talent level.

14.) Marlins- Organizational pitching best in baseball

15.) Giants- 5 years away.

 

I think you’re underrating the Phillies. They have an extremely potent lineup that hasn’t hit its stride yet and some pretty good pitching.

[Brew crew 92]

31% in, and some observations:

 

The playoff teams are pretty much set imo:

 

Dodgers Brewers Braves Cubbies Cardinals

 

1.) Dodgers- astounding depth and the best hitter.

2.) Brewers- will improve more than other teams.

3.) Cubbies- 1-8 the best, lack depth.

4.) Braves- great manager, chemistry, will improve too.

5.) Cardinals- great pitching depth, potential scary pen.

 

6.) Rockies- just miss.

7.) Phillies- bad Chemistry, bad manager.

8.) Reds- big time sellers at the deadline.

9.) Pirates- Hurdle best manager in baseball.

10.) Mets- bad manager, snakebite injuries.

11.) Padres- 2 years away.

12.) Nats- worst manager in baseball, big sellers.

13.) D-Backs- overachieving their talent level.

14.) Marlins- Organizational pitching best in baseball

15.) Giants- 5 years away.

 

I think you’re underrating the Phillies. They have an extremely potent lineup that hasn’t hit its stride yet and some pretty good pitching.

 

Yes, you could be right, but I can’t put them ahead of the braves or cards yet.

[BruisedCrew]

I’m not going to quibble about whether to rate the Braves above the Phillies, but I think it is way too early to suggest that the playoff teams are close to set. I would definitely put the Phillies ahead of the Rockies.

[Jopal78]

Well if those are the playoff contending teams I’m sure glad the Brewers are done with the Dodgers, Phillies and Mets before the calendar turns to June. Maybe the my can flatten up beating up on some cream puffs Inn june and July before the deadline

[NYChez]

The Brewers are once again #1 in MLB schedule strength, in both ESPN’s and Sagarin’s indices. Upcoming series against Minnesota and Houston won’t change that. They’re also .500 in 20 games against the NL first-place teams.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Interesting that the Cubs' recent scuffling of late has occurred during the tail end of an extended stretch of games without an off day. They'll get one later this week, only to have just one more day off between May 31 and July 4...their pitching has started showing signs of strain and their lack of depth will be interesting to watch with a couple more games against Houston, and bunch with STL, LAD, and Atlanta on their schedule over the next month.

 

conversely, if the Brewers remember how to actually beat the Pirates, their remaining schedule for the 1st half is extremely tasty compared to the schedule they've played to date.

[adambr2]

IMO we definitely have a great shot at the playoffs this year.

 

Dodgers are going to run away with the West, other than them, no one special. I see the Phillies and Braves both as likely playoff teams.

 

Top 2 from the Central IMO will be playoff teams.

[Eye Black]

The Brewers are once again #1 in MLB schedule strength, in both ESPN’s and Sagarin’s indices. Upcoming series against Minnesota and Houston won’t change that. They’re also .500 in 20 games against the NL first-place teams.

The Brewers are on a 91.5 win pace after playing arguably the toughest collection of opponents through the first one-third of the season (55 games). They have set themselves up nicely by staying above .500 to this point in the season with the schedule on the horizon seemingly easing up.

[IIAY]

The Brewers are once again #1 in MLB schedule strength, in both ESPN’s and Sagarin’s indices. Upcoming series against Minnesota and Houston won’t change that. They’re also .500 in 20 games against the NL first-place teams.

The Brewers are on a 91.5 win pace after playing arguably the toughest collection of opponents through the first one-third of the season (55 games). They have set themselves up nicely by staying above .500 to this point in the season with the schedule on the horizon seemingly easing up.

 

I'm not exactly sure how ESPN/Sagarin calculate their SoS, but I tried to break the season down into three 54-game sections. The first of these ended on Sunday (5/26) with the Brewers sitting at 30-24 (90 win pace). Here is how it breaks down:

 

Games 1 through 54

Opponent wPCT: .532

Games vs. teams > .550 wPCT: 23

Games vs. teams < .450 wPCT: 3

Games vs. CHC/STL: 16

Games vs. CIN/PIT: 5

 

Games 55 through 108:

Opponent wPCT: .492

Games vs. teams > .550 wPCT: 10

Games vs. teams < .450 wPCT: 12

Games vs. CHC/STL: 3

Games vs. CIN/PIT: 24

 

Games 109 through 162:

Opponent wPCT: .512

Games vs. teams > .550 wPCT: 14

Games vs. teams < .450 wPCT: 7

Games vs. CHC/STL: 19

Games vs. CIN/PIT: 9

 

It is clear that the middle 54 game stretch will be big opportunity for the Crew to take charge in the division after doing a great job in the first 54 games (by far the toughest third of the schedule). 24 games against the Reds and Pirates vs. 3 games against the Cubs and Cardinals. Done with the Dodgers and Phillies for the year. They started off on the right foot last night in Minnesota. Hopefully they have figured out how to beat the Pirates!