2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Jumped all the way to 74% for the playoffs today. Cubs plunge to 32%. Both Fangraphs and 538 have a 10% shot at the division which sounds about right.

[homer]

Stolen from Curt Hogg...

 

Milwaukee’s magic number to win a Wild Card outright is 9. To host the Wild Card game is 10. The division is 13.

[MrTPlush]

I’d love to host the Wild Card if we cannot win the division. Hosting a game and not being the last team in sounds way better. Especially if we were to end up losing that game. Not sure how confident I am in that though. Nationals are a serious threat to sweep the Marlins this weekend, if we only go 2-1 against the Pirates that puts us 2.0 GB. They have already sweep the Marlins three times this year. There schedule isn't a total cupcake after that though and we win a tiebreaker so we only need to tie them. Thankfully the Indians looked poised to be in the race till the last series and really have gotten hot.

 

Cubs are in big trouble. That was not a good start to the upcoming weekend for them. Especially when we play the Pirates and the Nationals play the Marlins. You gotta figure they need 2/3 this weekend or they are going to be in big trouble.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I want the WC I think. I'd like to play the Dodgers, because why not? Underdog against anybody and team is on borrowed time. Just give me the Dodgers in a best of 5 and see what happens.

[MrTPlush]

I want the WC I think. I'd like to play the Dodgers, because why not? Underdog against anybody and team is on borrowed time. Just give me the Dodgers in a best of 5 and see what happens.

 

I admire the confidence in us automatically winning the WC game despite the notable disadvantage we would have.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Lol, no confidence there at all, just have no preference in that game at all, because it's one game. We've shelled Kershaw before and been shut out by no names off the AAA shuttle. That game will be a total toss-up. There is very little strategy that comes into play when any pitcher can tank the first inning and end your season.

[Brew crew 92]

I want the WC I think. I'd like to play the Dodgers, because why not? Underdog against anybody and team is on borrowed time. Just give me the Dodgers in a best of 5 and see what happens.

 

I admire the confidence in us automatically winning the WC game despite the notable disadvantage we would have.

 

No way we lose that WC game. Pressure is on them, not us. Our pitching will dominate. We hit great established starters. Same with the dodger series, pressure will be enormous on them, not us, and that could mean the difference.

[Madhawk23]

I want the WC I think. I'd like to play the Dodgers, because why not? Underdog against anybody and team is on borrowed time. Just give me the Dodgers in a best of 5 and see what happens.

 

I admire the confidence in us automatically winning the WC game despite the notable disadvantage we would have.

 

No way we lose that WC game. Pressure is on them, not us. Our pitching will dominate. We hit great established starters. Same with the dodger series, pressure will be enormous on them, not us, and that could mean the difference.

 

I've gotta say, I kind of agree with this. Yes, we'd all love to win the division in back to back years here. But, the way this season has gone and the obstacles we've had to overcome - I think I'm OK slipping into one of these WC spots and playing the underdog role this year. Everyone has counted us out multiple times this year, and the "dagger" was pretty much inserted when Yeli got hurt. But, here we are - controlling our own destiny now for a playoff spot. I know we'd be an underdog in any kind of WC matchup, but with the way we use our pitching staff - I think we can at least match up OK in a 1 game playoff scenario. Then, if we take that WC game - we'd be an enormous underdog vs LA. But, as we know - this is baseball, and crazy things happen in this game we all love. So, let's go take them on right from the get-go and try to ruin their season, just like they ruined ours last year.

 

For these reasons, I think I'm rooting for the Cards all weekend. If we can win these games vs Pitt, it would be fantastic if we can go into the last 6 games with a 2-3 game cushion on the Cubs and start to stake hold for one of those WC spots.

[MrTPlush]

I want the WC I think. I'd like to play the Dodgers, because why not? Underdog against anybody and team is on borrowed time. Just give me the Dodgers in a best of 5 and see what happens.

 

I admire the confidence in us automatically winning the WC game despite the notable disadvantage we would have.

 

No way we lose that WC game. Pressure is on them, not us. Our pitching will dominate. We hit great established starters. Same with the dodger series, pressure will be enormous on them, not us, and that could mean the difference.

 

1) I think there is a 50% chance we lose the WC game IF we get to play in it.

 

2) If we were so blessed to play past the WC game and had to face the Dodgers I would rather it be in the NLDS. Only because the smaller the series the better the odds to make an unlikely result reality. I don't know what our chances in a 7-game series would be, but it would probably be well under 25%.

 

Also Brandon Woodruff is suppose to pitch this weekend, but they didn't give a date. Sunday would be his 'normal rest' as a starter. However, since he only pitched 2 innings they could probably push it up to Saturday as he won't get a full workload again anyway. That would then line him up on normal rest for the 26th for what would likely be close to a full workload. That would then line him up to pitch on normal rest again on October 1st...I am sure you can guess the significance of that date. I also wouldn't be shocked if they tried keeping his workload light through the regular season so they could push him up a day to the 31st...if need be.

 

They were suppose to decide on his next appearance last night, they have not announced that as far as I know. Davies is already the starter Saturday...so that could hint Sunday...but never know. Even if he pitches Sunday he won't pitch the three days prior to October 1st...so he certainly could pitch the 1st anyway as I doubt anyone is throwing 80+ pitches in the WC game. As long as they don't play a Game 163 they get a rest day for Hader and Co.

[JohnBriggs12]

I think it's going to come down to the series against the Reds. They're going to face both Gray and Castillo, no easy task and Suarez is red hot with 9 HR in September and he's a Brewer killer. Gray's been tough on the Brewers when they had Yelich. At the same time the Brewers are facing the Reds, Cubs are playing Pittsburgh. If they can take 2 of 3 in Cincy, I think they grab the first WC over the Nats who have 5 games against rival that will be loose and looking to take down the Nats followed by series against tough Indians.

[ThisIsMyCrew]

No way we lose that WC game. Pressure is on them, not us. Our pitching will dominate. We hit great established starters. Same with the dodger series, pressure will be enormous on them, not us, and that could mean the difference.

 

1) I think there is a 50% chance we lose the WC game IF we get to play in it.

 

The perfect response!

[Brew crew 92]

Sure.

When I say no way they lose that game, I say that knowing it’s baseball, and of course we could lose, even assuming we’d still have tons of momentum, which is only as good as the next games starting pitcher. But Destiny is tough to overcome.

[KeithStone53151]

Also Brandon Woodruff is suppose to pitch this weekend, but they didn't give a date. Sunday would be his 'normal rest' as a starter. However, since he only pitched 2 innings they could probably push it up to Saturday as he won't get a full workload again anyway. That would then line him up on normal rest for the 26th for what would likely be close to a full workload. That would then line him up to pitch on normal rest again on October 1st...I am sure you can guess the significance of that date. I also wouldn't be shocked if they tried keeping his workload light through the regular season so they could push him up a day to the 31st...if need be.

 

I think you make a good point here. It's way easier to have him adjust after his last outing than any other going forward. Have him throw something like 50 pitches tomorrow, 65 on the 26th, you'd have him around 80 for that potential wildcard game. Maybe they prefer to keep him on normal rest and have Lyles start the potential wildcard game...with Woodruff scheduled for games 1 and 5 of a 5 game series? That would really be putting the cart in front of the horse though.

 

I'll also add that pitching the 26th is in Cincy while the 27th is in Colorado. I think Woodruff's arsenal will play better than most of our starters in Colorado.

[MrTPlush]

Also Brandon Woodruff is suppose to pitch this weekend, but they didn't give a date. Sunday would be his 'normal rest' as a starter. However, since he only pitched 2 innings they could probably push it up to Saturday as he won't get a full workload again anyway. That would then line him up on normal rest for the 26th for what would likely be close to a full workload. That would then line him up to pitch on normal rest again on October 1st...I am sure you can guess the significance of that date. I also wouldn't be shocked if they tried keeping his workload light through the regular season so they could push him up a day to the 31st...if need be.

 

I think you make a good point here. It's way easier to have him adjust after his last outing than any other going forward. Have him throw something like 50 pitches tomorrow, 65 on the 26th, you'd have him around 80 for that potential wildcard game. Maybe they prefer to keep him on normal rest and have Lyles start the potential wildcard game...with Woodruff scheduled for games 1 and 5 of a 5 game series? That would really be putting the cart in front of the horse though.

 

I'll also add that pitching the 26th is in Cincy while the 27th is in Colorado. I think Woodruff's arsenal will play better than most of our starters in Colorado.

 

The nice thing is no matter what he will be available for the potential WC game. Pitching him on the 27th does take him out of the Game 163 game picture though...that would be only two days rest. He may be available I guess (all hand on deck), but it would be really limited at that point.

 

If you don't find yourself in a Game 163 the starter won't make it far, maybe 5 innings max. Hader and Co. will have a day of rest before and after. They wouldn't push their luck whether it be Woodruff or someone else.

 

I see Woodruff complained of arm soreness after his last start. That may factor into the date a bit...definitely effects his pitch count. May go 3 innings depending on his pitch count.

[thebruce44]

When I say no way they lose that game, I say that knowing it’s baseball, and of course we could lose

 

Makes sense.

[KeithStone53151]

Bahahahaha, oh Cubs diehards are something else. Bleacher nation article states "It is absolutely plausible that the Brewers finish up no better than 5-4 in these nine games, but even that would mean the Cubs have to go 6-3 just to tie them. And that, in turn, means even if you assume the Cubs sweep the Pirates, they still have to at least split the remaining six games against the Cardinals". Saying it's plausible we finish no better than 5-4 is friggin weird. It's the no better than 5-4 part that I don't like. They could try to argue that they hope the Reds/Rockies play us tough and we lose both series...there are a lot of routes to us only finishing 5-4...that type of comment would make sense. I think the Brewers range of outcomes is between 4-5 and 8-1. Anything else would be weird.

[tmwiese55]

Obviously I didn't read the article, but based on what you wrote there he could just be laying out how difficult it is for the Cubs even in a kind of best case scenario(us going 5-4) as opposed to him actually predicting it or anything. Basically saying as long as we win 5 (which as you're pointing out, should be very doable) they have to go 6-3 and every extra win make it worse up to 7-2 and so on...

[HarveysWBs]

I still think the rooting interest this weekend is Brewers sweep (obviously), then Cards get one more win and Cubs get the other two. I love the idea of two up on Chicago and only one behind St. Louis with six to go. That would be very good wildcard positioning and not an unbelievable chance at a game 163 for the division. First thing is first, though: beat the buccos.

[thebruce44]

I still think the rooting interest this weekend is Brewers sweep (obviously), then Cards get one more win and Cubs get the other two. I love the idea of two up on Chicago and only one behind St. Louis with six to go. That would be very good wildcard positioning and not an unbelievable chance at a game 163 for the division. First thing is first, though: beat the buccos.

 

I hate to say it, but at this point I don't see how you cannot root for the Cards to win out vs the Cubs. The odds of winning the division are so small and I want as much of a buffer as possible to ensure we make it into the Playoffs.

[KeithStone53151]

I still think the rooting interest this weekend is Brewers sweep (obviously), then Cards get one more win and Cubs get the other two. I love the idea of two up on Chicago and only one behind St. Louis with six to go. That would be very good wildcard positioning and not an unbelievable chance at a game 163 for the division. First thing is first, though: beat the buccos.

 

I hate to say it, but at this point I don't see how you cannot root for the Cards to win out vs the Cubs. The odds of winning the division are so small and I want as much of a buffer as possible to ensure we make it into the Playoffs.

 

I'm with Harvey's on this one. If we sweep the Pirates, I have to believe a WC is all but assured barring a really terrible 6 game stretch. I think our playoff odds would be over 90% at that point. If i knew we'd get those 3, I think 2 is the perfect amount for Chicago to win. Chicago has 3 against the pirates, but also 3 in st louis. Those 3 will be much tougher games than the 3 home games. It definitely all starts with us continuing to scratch out wins.

[pacopete4]

Per McCalvy:

Christian Yelich went down Sept. 10. Brewers since then:

 

.201 avg (last MLB)

.148 with RISP (last MLB)

72 wRC+ (12th of 15 NL)

 

3.26 ERA (4th NL)

3.47 FIP (3rd NL)

11.7 K/9 (2nd NL)

 

They are 7-2.

[KeithStone53151]

Per McCalvy:

Christian Yelich went down Sept. 10. Brewers since then:

 

.201 avg (last MLB)

.148 with RISP (last MLB)

72 wRC+ (12th of 15 NL)

 

3.26 ERA (4th NL)

3.47 FIP (3rd NL)

11.7 K/9 (2nd NL)

 

They are 7-2.

 

The Cubs have been better than us since that date in all pitching categories, and are 5-4 in that stretch.

[Lostpawn]

I still think the rooting interest this weekend is Brewers sweep (obviously), then Cards get one more win and Cubs get the other two. I love the idea of two up on Chicago and only one behind St. Louis with six to go. That would be very good wildcard positioning and not an unbelievable chance at a game 163 for the division. First thing is first, though: beat the buccos.

 

I hate to say it, but at this point I don't see how you cannot root for the Cards to win out vs the Cubs. The odds of winning the division are so small and I want as much of a buffer as possible to ensure we make it into the Playoffs.

 

I completely agree and stated so on a previous post on this board. At this point, the most rational rooting interest is for the Cubs to lose as much as possible. That is the Crew's best chance at a playoff spot. I am rooting for the Cards unless / until things change and the math demands otherwise.

 

That said - another division win would absolutely be sweet

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Yeah, if someone told me we were for sure going 4-0, I'd root for the Cubs to take at least 2. In the meantime, though, I'd rather reduce the playoff number. The division would be awesome, but it's really unlikely, and I sort of feel like we lost it back in August when we were playing mediocre baseball, and the Cards were tearing up (mostly the dregs of) the National League.

[HarveysWBs]

Yeah, if someone told me we were for sure going 4-0, I'd root for the Cubs to take at least 2. In the meantime, though, I'd rather reduce the playoff number. The division would be awesome, but it's really unlikely, and I sort of feel like we lost it back in August when we were playing mediocre baseball, and the Cards were tearing up (mostly the dregs of) the National League.

 

Well, I guess my take on this is: what I want or root for doesn’t change the outcome one lick. I might as well root for the best possible outcome, right? Unless I believe the Brewers, once in the playoffs, will have to beat the Dodgers at some point to get what I really want (a parade down, what, Wisconsin Avenue??? I just realized I’ve never even had to think about what a championship parade route would actually look like and got a little sad), then maybe I think the wildcard path makes sense. Easier to beat the Dodgers in 5 games rather than 7, since we already saw that movie last year. All things being equal, though, I think I still want the division so as to avoid the one-game scenario. I’ll root for that as long as it’s mathematically possible.