2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion

[MrTPlush]

I wouldn't write off the Cubs just yet.

 

Heyward has a .913 OPS in September

Castellanos has a .940 OPS in September

Bryant has a 1.070 OPS in September

Schwarber has a 1.034 OPS in September

Contreras has a 1.101 OPS in September

 

One would hope for low scoring games against St. Louis where the game is decided by the bullpens. If those games are slugfests I think the Brewers are going to have slim odds for the post season.

 

I don't get it, why?

 

My personal take is the Brewers with 82 wins aren't going to have the mojo to overtake the Cardinals for the division. If the Cardinals go 5-5 the rest of the way they'll hit 90 wins. Likewise, with a 1.5 game deficit behind Washington, and with the Nationals having 3 games against Miami they're likely to get into that 88-89 win range which makes the Brewers odds of surpassing them very slim.

 

The Brewers most realistic shot for the post season is slipping by the Cubs for the 2nd wild card. The Cubs are a strong hitting team, and they have a couple horses in their rotation . Thus, my comment above: situations where the Cubs/Cardinals games are low scoring and the outcome is decided with relief pitchers on the mound disfavors the Cubs with their rather average bullpen.

 

Yah, but wouldn't slugfests technically be preferred? That uses even more of the bullpen when the starter exits early. You can have high scoring games decided by bullpens. I guess I don't see why they have to be low scoring...you just want close if your goal is bullpen utilization. Low scoring would hint at the fact those 'horses' are pitching more of the game thus reducing the number of inning the cardinals see the bullpen.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

So none of the 4 teams finish under .500, and three of them win 7 games.

 

Super unlikely.

 

How is it super unlikely for Cubs to win 7, Brewers 7, Nats 6 (of 11), and Cards 5? That's hardly egregious. They're all winning teams fighting for a playoff spot with everything to play for. It's not like 3 teams have to go 9-1.

 

And if that happens, we have a 3 way tie and Brewers are still within one game of the division with no guarantee of postseason.

 

I would feel a whole lot better if Cards take care of business in their 7 against the Cubs to knock one of the four out and give the Brewers more wiggle room. The bottom line is the more the Cubs lose, the more padding the Brewers have because Cards are already + 3 on us.

 

I totally get the people who are all in for the division. But it's gonna be really tough to win 8 or 9 of 10 to have a reasonable shot at the division.

 

Postseason Brewers baseball isn't exactly something we're used to so I just want in.

 

It's super unlikely. Your scenario would involve both the Cubs and Brewers exceeding their projected win totals, 3 of the 4 teams winning at a higher percentage than they have all season, and (arguably) the best team of the bunch performing the worst of the four. It can happen, but it's super unlikely.

[vetter]

So none of the 4 teams finish under .500, and three of them win 7 games.

 

Super unlikely.

 

How is it super unlikely for Cubs to win 7, Brewers 7, Nats 6 (of 11), and Cards 5? That's hardly egregious. They're all winning teams fighting for a playoff spot with everything to play for. It's not like 3 teams have to go 9-1.

 

And if that happens, we have a 3 way tie and Brewers are still within one game of the division with no guarantee of postseason.

 

I would feel a whole lot better if Cards take care of business in their 7 against the Cubs to knock one of the four out and give the Brewers more wiggle room. The bottom line is the more the Cubs lose, the more padding the Brewers have because Cards are already + 3 on us.

 

I totally get the people who are all in for the division. But it's gonna be really tough to win 8 or 9 of 10 to have a reasonable shot at the division.

 

Postseason Brewers baseball isn't exactly something we're used to so I just want in.

 

It's super unlikely. Your scenario would involve both the Cubs and Brewers exceeding their projected win totals, 3 of the 4 teams winning at a higher percentage than they have all season, and (arguably) the best team of the bunch performing the worst of the four. It can happen, but it's super unlikely.

 

Whatever you say dude. But back to your original point, that clearly shows the Brewers can be within a game of the division and lose out on the playoffs altogether. For that matter, those four teams can all win one less game and the result is the same.

 

I just want the pesky fly in the room (the Cubs) to get swatted away to make our path a little easier.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

It's not whatever I say. It's mathematically really unlikely to occur. I don't know how you'd go about figuring out the actual odds of that outcome, but it is probably less than 5%...which...was my original point? The Brewers winning 89 games, having a shot at the division into the final series, and then not making the playoffs at all...is super unlikely.

[vetter]

Here's your original point:

 

Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races DiscussionReport this post #654

Posted: September 19, 2019, 9:41 AM Post

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Posts: 3879

Super unlikely we get close to the division without a wild card in our back pocket. I can't envision that happening.

 

Actually if you crunch the numbers there's a ton of scenarios where the Brewers are within a game of the division and are nowhere near having a wild card in their back pocket. As long as there's four teams in contention, and they all stay very close to each other, one team has to miss the playoffs.

[HiAndTight]

We are 152 games into the year and sit 3.0 GB.

 

156 games into 2018 we sat 2.5 GB on the division.

 

I think tonight is a potential turning point. If we gain a game tonight the division is very real, if you move back a game...I would say we are pretty close to toast. The faster we gain games the better. If we gain two games on the Cards in the next two days suddenly we only need to be one game better the rest of the way to force a tie. A little bit of bad luck can make a 10 game stretch go from 5-5 to 3-7 real quick. If they don't play that well and have some bad breaks they could lose most of their remaining games.

 

But hey this Brewers team isn't really that good, we could go 3-7 ourselves and be doomed. Who knows.

 

 

How amazing would it be to go on a run in back to back seasons and ruin the Cubs shots and then come back and ruin the Cards?

 

Especially in the second case when just about everything has gone wrong this year.

[Brewcrewin07]

I see Rizzo is back already for the Cubs...I know a lot of people are talking about the math and how it gets tough etc. I tend to look at these things in a shorter view, because then it doesn't seem as daunting, and it really isn't if you break it down this way...This is what i think we should want..(I know it's what I want). Cards win tonight...that gives the Brewers a 1 game lead over the Cubs...Now you have a little bit of a cushion over them..Brewers sweep the Pirates(which they should do), Cubs then win the next 3 from the cards(after tonight), all of a sudden you are tied for the division lead heading into the final week, and still have the one game cushion on the Cubs. That's a perfect scenario and not unrealistic at all, if you look at it that way.

[NYChez]

Less than two weeks ago the Brewers were 7.5 games behind the Cardinals, 7 games behind the Nationals, and 5 games behind the Cubs.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I see Rizzo is back already for the Cubs...I know a lot of people are talking about the math and how it gets tough etc. I tend to look at these things in a shorter view, because then it doesn't seem as daunting, and it really isn't if you break it down this way...This is what i think we should want..(I know it's what I want). Cards win tonight...that gives the Brewers a 1 game lead over the Cubs...Now you have a little bit of a cushion over them..Brewers sweep the Pirates(which they should do), Cubs then win the next 3 from the cards(after tonight), all of a sudden you are tied for the division lead heading into the final week, and still have the one game cushion on the Cubs. That's a perfect scenario and not unrealistic at all, if you look at it that way.

 

Hopefully Trent Grisham can lead them to a sweep this weekend!

[Jopal78]

I see Rizzo is back already for the Cubs...I know a lot of people are talking about the math and how it gets tough etc. I tend to look at these things in a shorter view, because then it doesn't seem as daunting, and it really isn't if you break it down this way...This is what i think we should want..(I know it's what I want). Cards win tonight...that gives the Brewers a 1 game lead over the Cubs...Now you have a little bit of a cushion over them..Brewers sweep the Pirates(which they should do), Cubs then win the next 3 from the cards(after tonight), all of a sudden you are tied for the division lead heading into the final week, and still have the one game cushion on the Cubs. That's a perfect scenario and not unrealistic at all, if you look at it that way.

 

I guess the cubs want it badly if they’re shooting Rizzo full of drugs so he can play I’m torn ankle ligaments

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Here's your original point:

 

Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races DiscussionReport this post #654

Posted: September 19, 2019, 9:41 AM Post

User avatar

Posts: 3879

Super unlikely we get close to the division without a wild card in our back pocket. I can't envision that happening.

 

Actually if you crunch the numbers there's a ton of scenarios where the Brewers are within a game of the division and are nowhere near having a wild card in their back pocket. As long as there's four teams in contention, and they all stay very close to each other, one team has to miss the playoffs.

 

Don't need to see my post, I haven't changed what I said.

 

They aren't that close to each other. Three are. The Cardinals are +3 with 9.5 to go, really not as close as people want it to be. And they play one of those teams 7 times. Each time they beat the Cubs this scenario is less and less likely because it's nearly impossible they're not at least a WC.

 

Sorry I just do not see a realistic scenario in which the Brewers pick up 3 games on St Louis (which would only tie them btw) - without the Cubs being pushed back far enough that the Brewers are at least a wild card or playing a tiebreaker to be one. Which is what my statement boils down to.

 

What is amusing to me is that you can't acknowledge that 3/4 teams winning 70% of their last ten and all four going .500+ is unlikely. I didn't even say anything remotely controversial.

[Lostpawn]

Looking at the numbers right now, the absolute worst case scenario for the Brewers is:

 

- Nats get to 90 or more wins

- Cubs and Cards sweep both their series in between their head to heads

- Cubs win 5 of 7 from the Cards

 

In this case the Crew would need to win 7 of 9 to get to 90 wins and enter a 3 way tie for the division.

 

Any other result between the Cards and Cubs is an improvement for the Brewers.

 

On the positive side, the Brewers do control their own destiny with regard to a playoff spot. If they win 8 of 9, they are in no matter what.

 

The Cards / Cubs series’ against each other sure simplifies things.

[MrTPlush]

We are 152 games into the year and sit 3.0 GB.

 

156 games into 2018 we sat 2.5 GB on the division.

 

I think tonight is a potential turning point. If we gain a game tonight the division is very real, if you move back a game...I would say we are pretty close to toast. The faster we gain games the better. If we gain two games on the Cards in the next two days suddenly we only need to be one game better the rest of the way to force a tie. A little bit of bad luck can make a 10 game stretch go from 5-5 to 3-7 real quick. If they don't play that well and have some bad breaks they could lose most of their remaining games.

 

But hey this Brewers team isn't really that good, we could go 3-7 ourselves and be doomed. Who knows.

 

 

How amazing would it be to go on a run in back to back seasons and ruin the Cubs shots and then come back and ruin the Cards?

 

Especially in the second case when just about everything has gone wrong this year.

 

The way the year has gone a WC birth and making the Cubs miss the postseason all together would be stellar. Well really postseason two years in a row would be great for this franchise.

[Lostpawn]

In an interesting quirk, the Cubs going 5-2 against the Cardinals could also lead to a best case scenario for the Crew. If that happened, and both the Cards and Cubs got swept in their other series’, they would both end up with 87 wins, and the Crew could win the division outright going just 5-4 in their last 9.

[mtrebs]

We are 152 games into the year and sit 3.0 GB.

 

156 games into 2018 we sat 2.5 GB on the division.

 

I think tonight is a potential turning point. If we gain a game tonight the division is very real, if you move back a game...I would say we are pretty close to toast. The faster we gain games the better. If we gain two games on the Cards in the next two days suddenly we only need to be one game better the rest of the way to force a tie. A little bit of bad luck can make a 10 game stretch go from 5-5 to 3-7 real quick. If they don't play that well and have some bad breaks they could lose most of their remaining games.

 

But hey this Brewers team isn't really that good, we could go 3-7 ourselves and be doomed. Who knows.

 

 

How amazing would it be to go on a run in back to back seasons and ruin the Cubs shots and then come back and ruin the Cards?

 

Especially in the second case when just about everything has gone wrong this year.

 

The way the year has gone a WC birth and making the Cubs miss the postseason all together would be stellar. Well really postseason two years in a row would be great for this franchise.

 

Yes, last year I had high expectations in the postseason, especially after the sweep in the NLDS. I really thought the Brewers were going to make it to the World Series, and at that point I thought they’d probably lose and I was kind of ok with that. This year, I don’t have real expectations that they’ll make it as far, or even win a series, so just making it after how frustrating this season has been would be quite the accomplishment. Booting the Cubs out would just be the cherry on top.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

In an interesting quirk, the Cubs going 5-2 against the Cardinals could also lead to a best case scenario for the Crew. If that happened, and both the Cards and Cubs got swept in their other series’, they would both end up with 87 wins, and the Crew could win the division outright going just 5-4 in their last 9.

 

If that happened, there would be a strong possibility that neither the Cardinals or Cubs make the playoffs. You have to think that the Nats would take a spot, and it would leave a chance for the Mets to sneak in if they end hot.

[mtrebs]

In an interesting quirk, the Cubs going 5-2 against the Cardinals could also lead to a best case scenario for the Crew. If that happened, and both the Cards and Cubs got swept in their other series’, they would both end up with 87 wins, and the Crew could win the division outright going just 5-4 in their last 9.

 

No way are the Cubs getting swept by the Pirates. You’d be better off factoring that they will sweep the Pirates in any hypothetical scenarios.

[Lostpawn]

In an interesting quirk, the Cubs going 5-2 against the Cardinals could also lead to a best case scenario for the Crew. If that happened, and both the Cards and Cubs got swept in their other series’, they would both end up with 87 wins, and the Crew could win the division outright going just 5-4 in their last 9.

 

No way are the Cubs getting swept by the Pirates. You’d be better off factoring that they will sweep the Pirates in any hypothetical scenarios.

 

Oh, I completely agree. See my worst case scenario that I posted previously. I was just looking at both best and worst cases.

 

If the goal is to make the playoffs, Brewers fans would be most rational rooting for the Cards to beat the Cubs as much as possible. Obviously that hurts or kills their chances at the division, but it gives the best chance of making the playoffs.

[mtrebs]

In an interesting quirk, the Cubs going 5-2 against the Cardinals could also lead to a best case scenario for the Crew. If that happened, and both the Cards and Cubs got swept in their other series’, they would both end up with 87 wins, and the Crew could win the division outright going just 5-4 in their last 9.

 

No way are the Cubs getting swept by the Pirates. You’d be better off factoring that they will sweep the Pirates in any hypothetical scenarios.

 

Oh, I completely agree. See my worst case scenario that I posted previously. I was just looking at both best and worst cases.

 

If the goal is to make the playoffs, Brewers fans would be most rational rooting for the Cards to beat the Cubs as much as possible. Obviously that hurts or kills their chances at the division, but it gives the best chance of making the playoffs.

 

Gotcha. Yes, I agree. Once it gets to the point where winning the division is only a complete shot in the dark, you have to hope for the competition in the Wild Card race to lose as much as possible. If the Cardinals hold up and win today the chance at the division gets slimmer and we’ll soon be at the point where the Cardinals might as well run away with the division, all but eliminating the Cubs from the Wild Card race.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I'm gonna say this because what I say doesn't influence anything, but the Cubs are done. I'll be fairly surprised if they win 86 games.

[brewcrewdue80]

So going in to the last 10/11 games of the season, The Cards/Cubs face eachother 7 times, and the Nats/Phillies face each other 5 times. With three spots to be determined 2 of the 4 teams are going to eliminate the other. Last team still hanging around are the Mets, who like the Brewers finish vs. teams that aren't playing for a Playoff spot. Watch out for them. Sure their last 3 are vs. the Braves, but the Braves have already clinched the division and will probably be setting up for their 1st round series and resting starting players that could use some.

 

Huge win today. 6 more locks it up and probably hosting with WC1. Nats finish last 3 vs. the Indians who currently sit outside the playoffs, but could easily find themselves playing for the division that series.

[Lostpawn]

Gotcha. Yes, I agree. Once it gets to the point where winning the division is only a complete shot in the dark, you have to hope for the competition in the Wild Card race to lose as much as possible. If the Cardinals hold up and win today the chance at the division gets slimmer and we’ll soon be at the point where the Cardinals might as well run away with the division, all but eliminating the Cubs from the Wild Card race.

 

Yep. In my opinion we would reach that point if the Cards take 3 of these first 4 from the Cubs. Honestly, I’m rooting for the Cards and will continue to do so unless they fall apart and the division becomes a truly realistic goal.

[RollieTime]

How about a Cardinals sweep right now to bury the Cubs, and then a Cubs sweep the next time they face the Cardinals? Keep the Cardinals close enough to us right now by winning our next couple games, while pretty much eliminating the Cubs, only to have the Cubs play spoiler in the end while they are too far behind to catch us. Gives us the confidence of the Cubs being out of it by the end of the weekend and almost assuring us of a playoff spot.

[Lostpawn]

How about a Cardinals sweep right now to bury the Cubs, and then a Cubs sweep the next time they face the Cardinals? Keep the Cardinals close enough to us right now by winning our next couple games, while pretty much eliminating the Cubs, only to have the Cubs play spoiler in the end while they are too far behind to catch us. Gives us the confidence of the Cubs being out of it by the end of the weekend and almost assuring us of a playoff spot.

 

The only way that benefits the Brewers is if the Cardinals also play a lousy series against the Diamondbacks. With the Cardinals sweeping the first four against the Cubs, they would be at 89 wins, which means the Brewers would need to win at least six more just to tie them. And that only works if Arizona somehow sweeps the Cards. Seems unlikely.

[mtrebs]

As of right now the Brewers have sole possession of the 2nd Wild Card spot (and the Cubs would miss the postseason!). They now have control of whether they make it or not without depending on anyone else. Pretty crazy considering how badly things were going for a while. I have to admit that I didn’t see this happening