2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion

[jjfanec]

I cant cheer for either team so I am just going to cheer for the Brewers to go 4-0. Then a split leaves the Brewers two up on the Cubs and just one back of the Cards. That seems like a pretty ideal situation. Today's game is huge because the Pirates have the look of a team that has given up. They have lost their list 5 by a combined 42 runs or something.

[MrTPlush]

But Plush... on the other hand, think how sweet it would be to knock the dodgers out.

 

Haha it would be great...but I think even the most optimistic would predict a 3-1 NLDS loss. Anything can happen, but they are miles better than us in almost every facet of the game and our entire September run consists of terrible teams and the sinking titanic known as the Cubs.

 

I think the Brewers best case scenario is to get on a different side of the bracket and hope the team on the other side gets rid of them first. The Cardinals would be the best bet in my opinion to take out the Dodgers in a 5 game series. Cardinals have the pitching to tame the Dodgers bats. I can't see our Dollar Store pitching staff stopping them.

[vetter]

I think a Brewers fan would hope for a 3-1 weekend and then either the Cubs/Cards winning that series 3-1. That would put the Brewers 1 game back in the division and tied for a WC spot. Or if the Cardinals dominated that would put us a major 2 games up on the Cubs....though likely sealing the division for the Cardinals.

 

Regardless, too early to give up on the division. The Brewers could easily go 4-0 the next four days and the Cardinals go 1-3...that would make a three way tie atop the division. There are of course a few ways to be 1 game out going into Monday too. Very far from over, for now.

 

I don't think we want the Cubs/Cards to "beat up on each other". I think we really just need one to beat up on the other. The risk adverse may cheer for the Cardinals, but I don't want the WC game where we will be at a huge disadvantage or even if we win getting the Dodgers right off the bat where we get ran out of the postseason embarrassingly. I would rather take a shot at the Braves first.

 

What I don't like about the Cubs going 3-1 and a 3-way division tie is that it puts them in a better spot to take the a wildcard and we miss the postseason altogether. If the Cards dominate we have a much easier chance of making it in. I guess it's 6 one way, a half dozen the other.

 

The real question is do we want an easier shot at securing a WC game and making the postseason or a chance to take the division but missing the playoffs altogether.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Super unlikely we get close to the division without a wild card in our back pocket. I can't envision that happening.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

I cant cheer for either team so I am just going to cheer for the Brewers to go 4-0. Then a split leaves the Brewers two up on the Cubs and just one back of the Cards. That seems like a pretty ideal situation. Today's game is huge because the Pirates have the look of a team that has given up. They have lost their list 5 by a combined 42 runs or something.

 

That's a good way to look at it.

 

The good news, from where I sit, is that both the Cubs and Nats could easily end with a losing record over these next 10 games. Every win the Brewers put up is just so important, and I don't think our last week is as "easy" as it seems. That makes these next 4 about as important as it gets.

 

If we're two up on the Cubs on Monday, I'd feel really good. If we're even, I'm pretty nervous.

[jjfanec]

I cant cheer for either team so I am just going to cheer for the Brewers to go 4-0. Then a split leaves the Brewers two up on the Cubs and just one back of the Cards. That seems like a pretty ideal situation. Today's game is huge because the Pirates have the look of a team that has given up. They have lost their list 5 by a combined 42 runs or something.

 

That's a good way to look at it.

 

The good news, from where I sit, is that both the Cubs and Nats could easily end with a losing record over these next 10 games. Every win the Brewers put up is just so important, and I don't think our last week is as "easy" as it seems. That makes these next 4 about as important as it gets.

 

If we're two up on the Cubs on Monday, I'd feel really good. If we're even, I'm pretty nervous.

 

I agree about the last week. It is easy if you just look at records but they are all on the road and teams that thought they were playoff contenders. I would be surprised if they just lay down. I would be very happy with 4-2 next week. That is why I think 3-1 is really important over the next 4. If we go 4-0 I think we are in. If we go 3-1 i think we need to go 4-2 next week to feel safe and that wont be easy.

[KeithStone53151]

For the division, the Cards and Cubs have 3 against the Dbacks and Pirates. If they each get 2 of 3, they would be at 87 and 84 wins. They play each other 7 times which means 7 guaranteed wins. Even if you divide them up perfectly, both teams would be at 89 wins(and let's be real, it won't divide up so nicely for us). So unless the Dbacks/Pirates can get 2 of 3 from contenders, there's really no route to winning the division besides getting to 90 wins...which is 8-2 at this point. There are a ton of routes to the wildcard...6-4 has a fairly realistic shot at a wildcard, even 5-5 has a shot.

[vetter]

Super unlikely we get close to the division without a wild card in our back pocket. I can't envision that happening.

 

I disagree. The Brewers could be within a game of the division and not make the playoffs.

 

If Brewers go 7-3 we finish with 89 wins.

If Cubs go 7-3 they finish with 89 wins. (4 of 7 from Cards and 3 of 3 vs Pirates).

If Cards go 5-5 they finish with 90 wins (3 of 7 from Cubs and 2 of 3 vs DBacks).

If Nats go 7-4 they finish with 90 wins or 6-5 they have 89 wins.

 

So that scenario would put the Brewers within one game of the division but not even guarantee them a wildcard spot.

 

If Cards annihilate the Cubs, the Cubs fade and we're not the odd team out missing the playoffs.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

So none of the 4 teams finish under .500, and three of them win 7 games.

 

Super unlikely.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Super unlikely we get close to the division without a wild card in our back pocket. I can't envision that happening.

 

I disagree. The Brewers could be within a game of the division and not make the playoffs.

 

If Brewers go 7-3 we finish with 89 wins.

If Cubs go 7-3 they finish with 89 wins. (4 of 7 from Cards and 3 of 3 vs Pirates).

If Cards go 5-5 they finish with 90 wins (3 of 7 from Cubs and 2 of 3 vs DBacks).

If Nats go 7-4 they finish with 90 wins or 6-5 they have 89 wins.

 

So that scenario would put the Brewers within one game of the division but not even guarantee them a wildcard spot.

 

If Cards annihilate the Cubs, the Cubs fade and we're not the odd team out missing the playoffs.

 

Well then, the push for 90 wins starts this afternoon. That would be tough, but with the stretch this team peeled off over the last couple weeks, it is possible.

[MrTPlush]

So none of the 4 teams finish under .500, and three of them win 7 games.

 

Super unlikely.

 

And yet it still requires a Game 163 to figure it out.

 

If we get close to the division it almost requires the Cubs to do good and keep pace with us (within a game I would imagine). Then it only requires the Nationals to do well down the stretch (who have 4 against the Marlins) to make that scenario possible. I would call it unlikely...but definitely possible.

[Jopal78]

I wouldn't write off the Cubs just yet.

 

Heyward has a .913 OPS in September

Castellanos has a .940 OPS in September

Bryant has a 1.070 OPS in September

Schwarber has a 1.034 OPS in September

Contreras has a 1.101 OPS in September

 

One would hope for low scoring games against St. Louis where the game is decided by the bullpens. If those games are slugfests I think the Brewers are going to have slim odds for the post season.

[MrTPlush]

I wouldn't write off the Cubs just yet.

 

Heyward has a .913 OPS in September

Castellanos has a .940 OPS in September

Bryant has a 1.070 OPS in September

Schwarber has a 1.034 OPS in September

Contreras has a 1.101 OPS in September

 

One would hope for low scoring games against St. Louis where the game is decided by the bullpens. If those games are slugfests I think the Brewers are going to have slim odds for the post season.

 

I don't get it, why?

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Well I guarantee that the Cubs or Cardinals are losing tonight.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I'm not writing off the Cubs but I feel that their only real way in is the division or an implosion from the Nationals. I feel somewhat confident that the 2 NLC teams in the playoffs won't be STL/CHC. They get to play St. Louis, so they control their own destiny. But if they get bashed in by the Cardinals they need more help than we do IMO.

[Roderick]

Well I guarantee that the Cubs or Cardinals are losing tonight.

 

Now you guaranteed yourself a rain delay until tomorrow (even if it is one of those sunny Chicago rain postponements).

[mtrebs]

I’m rooting for the Cardinals at this point. The likelihood of us winning the division has to be pretty low, so I’d rather them push the Cubs out in case the Brewers stumble a bit over the last 10 games of the season.

[vetter]

So none of the 4 teams finish under .500, and three of them win 7 games.

 

Super unlikely.

 

How is it super unlikely for Cubs to win 7, Brewers 7, Nats 6 (of 11), and Cards 5? That's hardly egregious. They're all winning teams fighting for a playoff spot with everything to play for. It's not like 3 teams have to go 9-1.

 

And if that happens, we have a 3 way tie and Brewers are still within one game of the division with no guarantee of postseason.

 

I would feel a whole lot better if Cards take care of business in their 7 against the Cubs to knock one of the four out and give the Brewers more wiggle room. The bottom line is the more the Cubs lose, the more padding the Brewers have because Cards are already + 3 on us.

 

I totally get the people who are all in for the division. But it's gonna be really tough to win 8 or 9 of 10 to have a reasonable shot at the division.

 

Postseason Brewers baseball isn't exactly something we're used to so I just want in.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

So none of the 4 teams finish under .500, and three of them win 7 games.

 

Super unlikely.

 

How is it super unlikely for Cubs to win 7, Brewers 7, Nats 6 (of 11), and Cards 5? That's hardly egregious. They're all winning teams fighting for a playoff spot with everything to play for. It's not like 3 teams have to go 9-1.

 

And if that happens, we have a 3 way tie and Brewers are still within one game of the division with no guarantee of postseason.

 

I would feel a whole lot better if Cards take care of business in their 7 against the Cubs to knock one of the four out and give the Brewers more wiggle room. The bottom line is the more the Cubs lose, the more padding the Brewers have because Cards are already + 3 on us.

 

I totally get the people who are all in for the division. But it's gonna be really tough to win 8 or 9 of 10 to have a reasonable shot at the division.

 

Postseason Brewers baseball isn't exactly something we're used to so I just want in.

 

I get that. I think we need to take it one game at a time. We'll likely know the result of the Brewers/Padres game before the first pitch of Cards/Cubs. If the Brewers win, I'm a Cub fan tonight. If the Brewers lose, I'm all in on the Cardinals. If the Brewers and Cardinals both win tonight, it's kind of a push.

[MrTPlush]

We are 152 games into the year and sit 3.0 GB.

 

156 games into 2018 we sat 2.5 GB on the division.

 

I think tonight is a potential turning point. If we gain a game tonight the division is very real, if you move back a game...I would say we are pretty close to toast. The faster we gain games the better. If we gain two games on the Cards in the next two days suddenly we only need to be one game better the rest of the way to force a tie. A little bit of bad luck can make a 10 game stretch go from 5-5 to 3-7 real quick. If they don't play that well and have some bad breaks they could lose most of their remaining games.

 

But hey this Brewers team isn't really that good, we could go 3-7 ourselves and be doomed. Who knows.

[pitchleague]

Well I guarantee that the Cubs or Cardinals are losing tonight.

 

 

Hee hee! Now the game will finish at 12:43 am! Hee hee!

[Zad Fnark]

I hope every one goes 17 innings.

 

I want both their bullpens to be completely torched by the end of the series.

[Jopal78]

I wouldn't write off the Cubs just yet.

 

Heyward has a .913 OPS in September

Castellanos has a .940 OPS in September

Bryant has a 1.070 OPS in September

Schwarber has a 1.034 OPS in September

Contreras has a 1.101 OPS in September

 

One would hope for low scoring games against St. Louis where the game is decided by the bullpens. If those games are slugfests I think the Brewers are going to have slim odds for the post season.

 

I don't get it, why?

 

My personal take is the Brewers with 82 wins aren't going to have the mojo to overtake the Cardinals for the division. If the Cardinals go 5-5 the rest of the way they'll hit 90 wins. Likewise, with a 1.5 game deficit behind Washington, and with the Nationals having 3 games against Miami they're likely to get into that 88-89 win range which makes the Brewers odds of surpassing them very slim.

 

The Brewers most realistic shot for the post season is slipping by the Cubs for the 2nd wild card. The Cubs are a strong hitting team, and they have a couple horses in their rotation . Thus, my comment above: situations where the Cubs/Cardinals games are low scoring and the outcome is decided with relief pitchers on the mound disfavors the Cubs with their rather average bullpen.

[Marc Newfield of Dreams]

Regardless, too early to give up on the division. The Brewers could easily go 4-0 the next four days and the Cardinals go 1-3...that would make a three way tie atop the division.

 

If that scenario happens wouldn't the Cubs be one game back of MIL/STL?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Regardless, too early to give up on the division. The Brewers could easily go 4-0 the next four days and the Cardinals go 1-3...that would make a three way tie atop the division.

 

If that scenario happens wouldn't the Cubs be one game back of MIL/STL?

 

Yes ... the Brewers and Cards would have a one game cushion on the Cubs in that scenario.