2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion

[MrTPlush]

Sometimes I struggle a lot with the computers. 19% at division, while certainly a good chance, seems low to me. Fan graphs still has the Cubs higher to even make the playoffs, which makes no sense to me at all. I can't quite say it yet but if the Brewers end the night one game back of St Louis, they are the favorite imo.

 

We are two games back still and not a lot of games. That means us getting 3 more wins than them to get it.

 

If we are bullish and say we go 8-3 that means the Cardinals have to go 5-6 to AND the Cubs can only go 7-4 for us to win the division.

 

That is possible if we go 8-3, but good luck if we win any less than that. At that point you are looking at a Game 163 at best in my opinion.

[topper09er]

I think it would be pretty awesome to win the division in a game 163 playoff @ Cubs and then @Cards in back-to-back seasons.

[Madhawk23]

Man, I'm not sure if I could stomach another Game 163? Now, if you give me the choice of that or not making it at all - then of course, give me the Game 163. Personally, I'd just assume we go win this thing outright. As has already been mentioned though - that's going to require us to probably finish at either 7-4 (probably unlikely this wins it outrigh), 8-3 (would still need a lot of help) or 9-2 (this would probably seal the outright division title for us). Not going to be easy pulling off any of those records, especially when you consider that the law of averages might suggest that we're going to start losing some games here soon. But, it sure is fun to be right there in the mix as we head into these final 11 games.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I think it's probably pretty unlikely that both the Cubs and Cards make the playoffs at this point being that they close the season with 7 games against each other. Either one will get hot and eliminate the other or they will split allowing us and the Nats continue to make up ground on both teams.

 

That said I hope we are able to stay hot, take the division and then let the Nats/Cubs or Cards battle out to see who gets to go to LA!

 

Go Crew!

 

Not necessarily. If St. Louis wins the division, then yeah, it seems impossible they both do. But not all that far fetched for the Cubs to squeeze it out and the Cards to squeak in as a WC. The Brewers would have to be pretty lousy, but with 11 left still pretty realistic.

[shanedog19]

A couple of teams to keep an eye on down the stretch are the Phillies and Indians. If they can stick in the playoff hunt, they both have series against the Nats yet to come. The Nats could have a very difficult schedule if both of those teams are still in it.

[MadScientist]

So this goes against every instinct I have as a Brewers fan, but I think the Cards might be cooked and the Cubs are the big threat to Milwaukee, especially if St. Louis loses to Scherzer and the Nats tonight.

Never say that about the Cards. They keep combing back worse than an army of zombie terminators.

[shanedog19]

Could it be possible that THREE teams from the NL Central may make the playoffs?

[HarveysWBs]

So this goes against every instinct I have as a Brewers fan, but I think the Cards might be cooked and the Cubs are the big threat to Milwaukee, especially if St. Louis loses to Scherzer and the Nats tonight.

Never say that about the Cards. They keep combing back worse than an army of zombie terminators.

 

And of course, they almost immediately start to defy my expectations. Nothing to see here, just another guy being wrong on the internet...

[Dead Simmons]

Could it be possible that THREE teams from the NL Central may make the playoffs?

 

That's what I think. Barring a Cub collapse the Nats won't make it.

 

A heads up for you guys: CSN cable sports network airs a show @ 6PM called Sports Talk Live. The host, Dave Kaplan (who tells it like it is) is a real baseball guy and the division race will be discussed in detail tonight.

 

There's more informed discussion on the Central Division that MLBTV and ESPN combined, which isn't hard.

[NYChez]

One game that stands out as having a huge impact on the Brewers’ playoff chances is the 15-14 win at Washington on August 15.

 

The Brewers were down 3 in the 9th, Moose and Braun homered to give the Brewers a 1-run lead, Hader gave up the lead but got out of a bases loaded/no out jam, and they finally held on after Thames’ 14th inning home run.

 

That game could mean the difference between hosting a wildcard game and missing the playoffs.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Well, at 20 games to go, we were 2 back of the Cubs. After an 8-2 stretch, we've pulled even.

 

I think I'm in Cardinals sweep territory. As much I dislike the Cardinals for what they've done to us over the years, my interactions with their fans have generally been much more positive than with the Cubs. Of course, I wish both teams could lose, but the Cubs had their moment, and I want back-to-back playoff berths however it happens. Here's hoping we rattle of another mini-streak, and are 2 or 3 up on the Cubs by Monday morning...

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Well, at 20 games to go, we were 2 back of the Cubs. After an 8-2 stretch, we've pulled even.

 

I think I'm in Cardinals sweep territory. As much I dislike the Cardinals for what they've done to us over the years, my interactions with their fans have generally been much more positive than with the Cubs. Of course, I wish both teams could lose, but the Cubs had their moment, and I want back-to-back playoff berths however it happens. Here's hoping we rattle of another mini-streak, and are 2 or 3 up on the Cubs by Monday morning...

 

I think I'm pulling for a Cubs win tonight, but if they look listless and drop the opener, I want the Cards to blow them out of the water. I don't think that's going to happen, though. Yeah, the Cubs are missing a couple stars, but Caratini and Hoerner are no slouches filling in, and that lineup has the talent to go off at any time.

[82brewcrew82]

Well, at 20 games to go, we were 2 back of the Cubs. After an 8-2 stretch, we've pulled even.

 

I think I'm in Cardinals sweep territory. As much I dislike the Cardinals for what they've done to us over the years, my interactions with their fans have generally been much more positive than with the Cubs. Of course, I wish both teams could lose, but the Cubs had their moment, and I want back-to-back playoff berths however it happens. Here's hoping we rattle of another mini-streak, and are 2 or 3 up on the Cubs by Monday morning...

I tend to agree that slipping in as the WC2 is the most likely scenario at this point. Having said that, we do have to consider that the dirty birds and baby bears have to play each other seven times which is a different dynamic than the ten game stretch you noted. I have a feeling this is going to be a very day-to-day analysis going forward.

[tmwiese55]

Simplest and safest way to get in is Cards pound the Cubs, I think that's clear. Greediest way to look at is to still get the division which means root for the Cubs and take care of our own business. It's also probably the most likely way to make a serious run to the NLCS in order to avoid LAD. Really it just comes down to your level of 'gambling' for which you want to root for. I'd prefer the higher chance of a deep run so as of now still going for Cards to lose. But, will also be content with the season if we steal this spot from Cubs again this year to at least have that bragging right over them. Really, since the WS title is likely a less than 1% chance maybe it's best to just root for that and be content, anything beyond is gravy. Probably one more day of Cards win combined with a loss from us and I'm off the root against the Cards wagon.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

WC1 is totally in play. The Nationals also don't have the day off remaining everyone else does.

[Outlander]

Nationals have off today so a good day to pick up a half game on them. However they then play 11 games in 10 days because of a double header with the Phillies.

[KeithStone53151]

WC1 is totally in play. The Nationals also don't have the day off remaining everyone else does.

 

The Nationals have off today, but then play 11 games in 10 days to close the season. I think it's actually pretty important that the Phillies hang on the periphery of the playoff race. They have the Braves today and then 3 against the Indians, so that won't be easy. But after that they have 5 in 4 days against the Nationals. The Phillies getting 3 wins probably would sink the Nationals...especially if they can't get a sweep this weekend against the Marlins.

[KeithStone53151]

I've been running scenarios this morning, I really don't think we can win the division unless we can get to 90 wins. That means 8-2 down the stretch. Might be more realistic to root Cardinals here and improve our WC odds. I'm still hemming and hawing on that.

[shanedog19]

I've been running scenarios this morning, I really don't think we can win the division unless we can get to 90 wins. That means 8-2 down the stretch. Might be more realistic to root Cardinals here and improve our WC odds. I'm still hemming and hawing on that.

 

This is where I am at too. The math just isn't on our side to catch the Cardinals barring a major collapse by them. That loss by the Cubs last night was huge though, because now we can keep pace with them if they win a bunch of games against the Cardinals. Bottom line, we just need to keep winning our games and go from there.

[Pugger]

I've been running scenarios this morning, I really don't think we can win the division unless we can get to 90 wins. That means 8-2 down the stretch. Might be more realistic to root Cardinals here and improve our WC odds. I'm still hemming and hawing on that.

 

I know but it is revolting to have to root for those clowns.

[vetter]

I've been running scenarios this morning, I really don't think we can win the division unless we can get to 90 wins. That means 8-2 down the stretch. Might be more realistic to root Cardinals here and improve our WC odds. I'm still hemming and hawing on that.

 

You are correct. Brewers need to go 8-2 and Cards 5-5 just to force a tiebreaker for the division.

 

I feel totally disgusting about myself, but I'm going all-in on the Cards for their 7 against the Cubs. If Cards win 4 of 7, the Cubs can sweep the Pirates and they'd still end up 6-4. That means if the Brewers can go 7-3, they'd be a game up on the Cubs for at least WC2. Even though the Cubs have dominated the Cards at home this year, their team is not the same now given their injuries. So I think it's completely realistic for Cards to go 4-3 or 5-2 vs Cubs.

 

Next 10:

SD: 1-0

PIT: 3-0

Reds: 2-1

Rockies: 1-2

 

If Brewers can accomplish that, it's Playoff time!!

[Marc Newfield of Dreams]

My rough guess based on the remaining schedules-

 

STL: 90-72

MIL: 88-74

CHC: 88-74

 

Still, fun as hell to be able to scoreboard watch. Something I didn't see coming a month ago.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I think the Cubs are going to fade. We'll visit Washington for the wild card.

[MrTPlush]

I think a Brewers fan would hope for a 3-1 weekend and then either the Cubs/Cards winning that series 3-1. That would put the Brewers 1 game back in the division and tied for a WC spot. Or if the Cardinals dominated that would put us a major 2 games up on the Cubs....though likely sealing the division for the Cardinals.

 

Regardless, too early to give up on the division. The Brewers could easily go 4-0 the next four days and the Cardinals go 1-3...that would make a three way tie atop the division. There are of course a few ways to be 1 game out going into Monday too. Very far from over, for now.

 

I don't think we want the Cubs/Cards to "beat up on each other". I think we really just need one to beat up on the other. The risk adverse may cheer for the Cardinals, but I don't want the WC game where we will be at a huge disadvantage or even if we win getting the Dodgers right off the bat where we get ran out of the postseason embarrassingly. I would rather take a shot at the Braves first.

[AKCheesehead]

But Plush... on the other hand, think how sweet it would be to knock the dodgers out.