2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion

[82brewcrew82]

Well going into Friday with the standings like this would be nice...If the Cardinals lose today and we win....my oh my that would be crazy not even taking into consideration the possibility of the Cubs losing too. Regardless I hope to be within one of the Cardinals by the time PIT is in town, that would be ideal.

I think this is key. It takes the pressure off of HAVING to go 9-2. At that point, it's anybody's division.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Per 538 the Brewers division odds gained +10 last night to 19%. The Cubs sit 23%, but are behind the Brewers 53-69 when it comes to making the playoffs. Not all that surprising since the Brewers likely have two paths in and the Cubs probably don't.

[brewcrewdue80]

Staring at the Standings. With the Cubs&Cards playing 7 vs eachother, the crew are currently +1.5games on the last wild card. Making the playoffs is inevitable. Especially if the Cards take 5 of 7 from Cubs.

 

Edit add. I mean based on that fact the Brewers should have a higher Playoff odds than both Cubs/Cards. While Cards have a large lead on Division winning pct, up until they lose the first 2games of the 7 vs the Cubs.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Not quite inevitable since this team is certainly capable of a 2-9 finish. But it's looking good. Sorta feels like they may have gotten hot a tad too early but it's been done before. 6-5 would probably get a WC. My eyes have turned to the division now. I think we want the Cubs and Cards to go back and forth and keep them both in it as long as possible. But if we dominate bad teams this thing is ours.

[Brew crew 92]

Not quite inevitable since this team is certainly capable of a 2-9 finish. But it's looking good. Sorta feels like they may have gotten hot a tad too early but it's been done before. 6-5 would probably get a WC. My eyes have turned to the division now. I think we want the Cubs and Cards to go back and forth and keep them both in it as long as possible. But if we dominate bad teams this thing is ours.

 

Capable of a 2 and 9 finish?

 

Really?

 

3 and 8 for sure, but 2 and 9?

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Yes? 3-8 is reasonable but 2-9 isn't? Lol. I love how quickly people forget things, for better or worse.

 

I think we're in, but this is in no way locked up or inevitable. I don't like that we have to leave Milwaukee for the final two series.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Probably has been stated but in case anyone is wondering, we'd host Chicago in 163 but visit St. Louis. If all three tie I don't have a clue what happens other than there is more baseball in a bunch of places.

[Brew crew 92]

Yes? 3-8 is reasonable but 2-9 isn't? Lol. I love how quickly people forget things, for better or worse.

 

I think we're in, but this is in no way locked up or inevitable. I don't like that we have to leave Milwaukee for the final two series.

 

Yes, they seem virtually unbeatable at home right now, but they have gone 8-1 in their last 9 road games.

[brewcrewdue80]

So with 11games left the Team owns its destiny needing 8wins to automatically make the playoffs. Magic number Cubs-10 Cards 14 for Division outright.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Yes? 3-8 is reasonable but 2-9 isn't? Lol. I love how quickly people forget things, for better or worse.

 

I think we're in, but this is in no way locked up or inevitable. I don't like that we have to leave Milwaukee for the final two series.

 

Yes, they seem virtually unbeatable at home right now, but they have gone 8-1 in their last 9 road games.

 

And they remain under .500 on the road for the year. If only the season started this month, the Brewers could've gone 140-22 this year.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Why do we all assume in these scenarios that the Cubs and Cards are going to win all their remaining games when they aren't playing each other? The Cards have to face Scherzer today, then travel to AZ to face a decent Dbacks squad after a 4 game road set in Chicago. I'd say the Cards have a better chance to finish 2-2 than 4-0.

 

If the Reds' offense shows up today, the Cubs will have their hands full with them once more and also will have a road series at Pittsburgh. 3-1 seems likely for them, but it's not out of the question for a 2-2 based on how they've been playing away from Wrigley.

 

If these teams play 2-2 against their other competition, then the ceiling win totals for these teams would be 93 for the Cards and 91 for the Cubs. Those win totals would assume either team wins all 7 games they have to face each other, which is extremely unlikely. A more realistic scenario would have a 4-3 game edge, meaning the Cards' win ceiling is likely 90 wins, and the Cubs' ceiling is at 88 wins. That means if the brewers go 9-2 they are very likely to win the division outright even under the rosiest Cards scenario, and they could win the division outright by playing 8-3 under the rosiest Cubs scenario (which would leave the Cards at 89 wins). I don't think either of those teams is capable of rattling off an 8-3 or 9-2 stretch of baseball based on how they are playing and who's left on their schedule - that means if the Brewers keep playing well they win this division, even if it's still a 20-ish percent chance of happening entering play today.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

No one assumed that?

 

But statements like "this team isn't capable of this based on how they're playing" are pretty empty. Two weeks ago the Brewers were destined for 82-80. Any of these three teams are capable of sudden terrible baseball.

[MrTPlush]

Probably has been stated but in case anyone is wondering, we'd host Chicago in 163 but visit St. Louis. If all three tie I don't have a clue what happens other than there is more baseball in a bunch of places.

 

A three way tie would be an absolute nightmare because no team is likely to have a better record against the other two teams. The Cardinals have been beat up pretty bad so far by the Cubs so they likely lose that head to head series. That means: Cardinals over Brewers/Cubs over Cardinals/Brewers over Cubs. This means no team gets a simple tiebreaker to have preference. That being said the Cubs likely will have the better record when it comes to their head to head matchups with the other teams in the tiebreaker....thus Cubs get preference.

 

That means:

 

We travel to the Cardinals to play Game 163.

 

I think, regardless of the winner, that team travels to Wrigley to play their Game 164. The winner of that game gets the NL Central Title and the loser gets the WC birth. If we hold both the WC spots then even the original Game 163 loser gets a spot.

 

If the Nationals are also tied with us:

 

Three-Club Tie for Division Championship & Tie with Club Outside Division For Two Wild Card Spots:

 

After Clubs have been assigned their A, B, C and D designations (In this case, Club D would be the Club outside the Division), Club A would host Club B and Club C would host Club D.

 

1. If Club D wins, it would be declared one Wild Card Club and the winner of the game between Club A and Club B would be declared the Division Champion. The loser of the game between Club A and Club B would host Club C to determine the other Wild Card Club.

 

2. If Club C wins, then the winner of the game between Club A and Club B would host Club C. The winner of the game would be declared the Division Champion and the loser would be declared one Wild Card Club. The loser of the game between Club A and Club B would host Club D to determine the other Wild Card Club.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I mean the Cubs are only up 7-5 on the Cards. As close as it can be without a tie. A 5-2 split would mean the Cubs have losing records against both. Tough, but not super hard to see. Of course, if they go 2-5 the Cubs are likely donezo.

[MrTPlush]

I mean the Cubs are only up 7-5 on the Cards. As close as it can be without a tie. A 5-2 split would mean the Cubs have losing records against both. Tough, but not super hard to see. Of course, if they go 2-5 the Cubs are likely donezo.

 

Yah, it is simply too early to know because they have some many games against each other to go. It can make quite a difference.

[Fear The Chorizo]

No one assumed that?

 

But statements like "this team isn't capable of this based on how they're playing" are pretty empty. Two weeks ago the Brewers were destined for 82-80. Any of these three teams are capable of sudden terrible baseball.

 

I didn't say just that - I said based on how they're playing and who's left on their schedule - If the Brewers had 7 left against the Cubs or Cardinals, I wouldn't expect them to continue playing 0.800 baseball the rest of the way, either. The Cubs have injuries everywhere and questionable at best pitching, while the Cards have no cupcakes left on their schedule - yet they are both good enough to give each other fits during those 7 games. I don't consider that empty at all. Sure, any one of these teams could finish either 11-0 or 0-11...but IMO there's no chance of that happening. The Brewers are playing well and they don't have any head to head matchups against their competition where a loss is a 2 game swing in the standings - for the Cubs and Cards that means they have no control over what the Brewers do in the W/L column any more, which is a nervous place to be when the division is up for grabs and you still have a pile of head to head games.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

It's still baseball though. Anything can happen in Colorado. I have more confidence in our rivals losing due to everything you said, but the Brewers are definitely capable of losing a bunch of games here.

[Brew crew 92]

Why do we all assume in these scenarios that the Cubs and Cards are going to win all their remaining games when they aren't playing each other? The Cards have to face Scherzer today, then travel to AZ to face a decent Dbacks squad after a 4 game road set in Chicago. I'd say the Cards have a better chance to finish 2-2 than 4-0.

 

If the Reds' offense shows up today, the Cubs will have their hands full with them once more and also will have a road series at Pittsburgh. 3-1 seems likely for them, but it's not out of the question for a 2-2 based on how they've been playing away from Wrigley.

 

If these teams play 2-2 against their other competition, then the ceiling win totals for these teams would be 93 for the Cards and 91 for the Cubs. Those win totals would assume either team wins all 7 games they have to face each other, which is extremely unlikely. A more realistic scenario would have a 4-3 game edge, meaning the Cards' win ceiling is likely 90 wins, and the Cubs' ceiling is at 88 wins. That means if the brewers go 9-2 they are very likely to win the division outright even under the rosiest Cards scenario, and they could win the division outright by playing 8-3 under the rosiest Cubs scenario (which would leave the Cards at 89 wins). I don't think either of those teams is capable of rattling off an 8-3 or 9-2 stretch of baseball based on how they are playing and who's left on their schedule - that means if the Brewers keep playing well they win this division, even if it's still a 20-ish percent chance of happening entering play today.

 

Last year early September all the projections had us with a less than 10% chance at the division. This year it was what 6.8%.

 

Computer can’t see the Stearns/Counsell September. Brewer’s confounding these Algorithms, this is Awesome, and comical at the same time. Although a little early to gloat.

[brewcrewdue80]

Why do we all assume in these scenarios that the Cubs and Cards are going to win all their remaining games when they aren't playing each other?

 

That is why I put a magic # count on winning division outright. To make the proclamation getting in the playoffs is inevitable, that assumes the Crew win the majority of their games too. The one known is that there are 7Ls in this stretch to be added to the Cards/Cubs season w/l totals.

[Fear The Chorizo]

It's still baseball though. Anything can happen in Colorado. I have more confidence in our rivals losing due to everything you said, but the Brewers are definitely capable of losing a bunch of games here.

 

Absolutely - which is why I qualified my earlier post of still needing to play to an 8-3 or 9-2 stretch for the Brewers to win the division outright, not just guaranteeing them a WC spot. I think the Brewers wind up with WC2 if they manage to play 6-5 from here on out and finish with 88 wins - 7-4 almost guarantees it IMO. Could the Brewers put up a clunker week and drop back out of the race? Sure, that's why they play the games. But, I'd rather be in the Brewers' current situation than the Cubs, and probably even the Cards despite their 2 game edge.

[brewtank34]

My dream scenario. Brewers definitely have a good shot at winning the division. With that being the optimal goal, that would result in a potential Chicago/STL wild card game resulting in one of them being eliminated after that wild card game. From there, the winner would have to play LA which again...anyone going up against LA at this time is going to be the clear-cut underdog. The Crew would face ATL which is not an ideal match-up either but definitely better odds of advancing against ATL vs. LA.

 

Or... either Chic/STL is out of the playoffs due to WAS being the 1st/2nd wild card team. Either way... The Crew needs to get the Division. How sweet would that be? I'm Lovin' this Crew!

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Sometimes I struggle a lot with the computers. 19% at division, while certainly a good chance, seems low to me. Fan graphs still has the Cubs higher to even make the playoffs, which makes no sense to me at all. I can't quite say it yet but if the Brewers end the night one game back of St Louis, they are the favorite imo.

[TURBO]

So basically, the Central is still up for grabs.

 

Only 3 teams left to fight for the 2 remaining wildcard spots after the Central is decided.

 

This is fun, but stressful.

 

So much better than not having a shot, SO MUCH BETTER!

[adamds22]

I think it's probably pretty unlikely that both the Cubs and Cards make the playoffs at this point being that they close the season with 7 games against each other. Either one will get hot and eliminate the other or they will split allowing us and the Nats continue to make up ground on both teams.

 

That said I hope we are able to stay hot, take the division and then let the Nats/Cubs or Cards battle out to see who gets to go to LA!

 

Go Crew!

[HarveysWBs]

So this goes against every instinct I have as a Brewers fan, but I think the Cards might be cooked and the Cubs are the big threat to Milwaukee, especially if St. Louis loses to Scherzer and the Nats tonight. The cards get the diamondbacks in between the Cubs series, which is a slightly tougher matchup than the absolutely listless pirates (whom the cubs play). I’ll go so far as to say that if the Cardinals lose tonight, they’ll finish with a worse record than the Brewers even if Milwaukee loses to SD. But I could see the Cubs and/or Nats still being a challenge, record-wise.