2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I am just glad I can stop listening to people claim the Brewers, "always choke in the second half/September". It wasn't even a factually true statement and thankfully the last three years have helped put that to bed.

 

Agreed, along with the "This team is bad/sucks/is not even close to a playoff team" posts. Granted there was some truth to that statement at various points through the year, but they got deafening for awhile.

[Jopal78]

Assuming everybody pitches on regular rest, the Brewers will face: Gray, Castillo and DeScalfani in the Reds series. Those are real tough pitching match ups, while the Cardinals will be facing Arizona and the Cubs will be facing Pittsburgh.

[tmwiese55]

Possible some of those guys could have their last starts canceled since the Reds are out of it to save the wear and tear. Just trying to be positive, anything helps.

[Madhawk23]

At this stage - are we better off just rooting for one of these three teams ahead of us (Cards, Cubs or Nats) to lose a bunch of these games, even if it means that one of the other teams get ridiculously hot? For example, I'm assuming that it would just be best for us to have one of the Cards/Cubs to win 5-6 of their 7 head to head matchups? Yes, that probably will then mean that one of them will end up winning the division, but it would also give us a better shot at sneaking into one of the WC spots - assuming of course that we can finish strong here and put up an 8-4 type record in our remaining 12 games.

 

Or, do we really hope that they just beat up on each other over the next 12 games - sticking both teams with 3-4 losses, and hope that we stay this red hot over the final stretch and put up a 9-3 type record and come in and steal the division? Obviously, I know this is the better of the two options, but I feel like this is still a major long shot.

[Madhawk23]

Possible some of those guys could have their last starts canceled since the Reds are out of it to save the wear and tear. Just trying to be positive, anything helps.

 

I like your optimism, but I'm sure this would be frowned on by MLB if the Reds start a bunch of minor league scrubs against us next week in that series. Maybe they take those guys out of their starts earlier than they would normally do so, but I'm guessing we see all three of those guys, if it really is their turn in the rotation. Certainly not ideal for us. I almost feel like we might need to go into next week with a game or two lead for one of the WC spots - if we are really going to make this thing happen.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Possible some of those guys could have their last starts canceled since the Reds are out of it to save the wear and tear. Just trying to be positive, anything helps.

 

I like your optimism, but I'm sure this would be frowned on by MLB if the Reds start a bunch of minor league scrubs against us next week in that series. Maybe they take those guys out of their starts earlier than they would normally do so, but I'm guessing we see all three of those guys, if it really is their turn in the rotation. Certainly not ideal for us. I almost feel like we might need to go into next week with a game or two lead for one of the WC spots - if we are really going to make this thing happen.

 

Castillo's spot in the Reds rotation was last night, and they started Kevin Gausman instead. It would suck if the Reds skipped Castillo's start against the Cubs, only to start him against the Brewers.

[shanedog19]

A week or two ago I thought 87-88 wins probably gets a playoff spot. Now I kinda feel like 90 is the number to potentially just get a tie breaker game. The Brewers can get there, but it means they're going to need to sweep a couple of these series. I'm just assuming at this point that the Cubs, Cards, and Nats are going to sweep all of their 3 game series vs non-contenders. Seeing the lifelessness of some of these teams is both frustrating and leaving me optimistic.

 

They will need at least one sweep to get to a 9-3 finish and 90 total wins. Our best chance at a sweep is probably the Pirates series this weekend. The Reds series is what scares me the most, we are only 8-8 against them this year and they will love to play spoiler.

[tmwiese55]

Possible some of those guys could have their last starts canceled since the Reds are out of it to save the wear and tear. Just trying to be positive, anything helps.

 

I like your optimism, but I'm sure this would be frowned on by MLB if the Reds start a bunch of minor league scrubs against us next week in that series. Maybe they take those guys out of their starts earlier than they would normally do so, but I'm guessing we see all three of those guys, if it really is their turn in the rotation. Certainly not ideal for us. I almost feel like we might need to go into next week with a game or two lead for one of the WC spots - if we are really going to make this thing happen.

 

Castillo's spot in the Reds rotation was last night, and they started Kevin Gausman instead. It would suck if the Reds skipped Castillo's start against the Cubs, only to start him against the Brewers.

 

Yes, this type of stuff happens all the time every year. Maybe we'll get unlucky and a scenario just pointed out happens or we could get lucky. But this stuff happens every year and the discussion about whether MLB would frown on it happens every year. It's been going on forever and in pretty much every sport.

 

If we wanna play conspiracy theories at all, the Reds have had a beef with the Cards and Cubs in recent years but really nothing with us. Plus our connection to the pitching coach. So hey, if they're gonna play favorites at all you'd think they'd rather us win than the Cards/Cubs. That said, I don't believe that at all. It would come down to their people's data or opinions on their own pitchers innings/limits and that's it.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

The Cubs have been good at home all year. I'm not surprised they've won 5 in a row. I think the Reds end that streak tonight, but we'll see.

 

This really is a coin flip at this point. I'll be disappointed if the Crew doesn't get in, but I'm trying to enjoy the ride as a bonus. I thought this team was toast in late August. I still think 88 wins gives you a good shot. Obviously 89 or 90 is better, but 7-5 for us and 6-6 or even 5-7 for the Cubs is not all that unlikely, and that's not even counting the Nats, who could definitely go 6-7 against the Phillies, Marlins, Cardinals, and Indians (they have Thursday off but then have 11 games in 10 days to close the season, and that bullpen is, well, that bullpen). I think an 8-4 finish is going to put us straight into the WC. Win your games. Try to forget the day-by-day standings. Look at everything going into the Colorado series.

 

I'm personally rooting for the Cardinals the rest of the way (ick). Not like I'm going all out, of course, but I think our best shot for postseason play is losses by the Nats and Cubs. 3 games is a lot to make up with 12 to go. I guess, ideal scenario, the Nats have to throw Strasburg and Scherzer just to get in, and we finish tied with them for the WC. We host the WC game by virtue of winning the season series. I think we have a better shot at beating the Cubs, probably, but I just couldn't stomach a loss to them to end our season. I'd rather play the Nats. The downside is just your standard baseball stuff. There's none of the messy rivalry emotions involved.

[Madhawk23]

A week or two ago I thought 87-88 wins probably gets a playoff spot. Now I kinda feel like 90 is the number to potentially just get a tie breaker game. The Brewers can get there, but it means they're going to need to sweep a couple of these series. I'm just assuming at this point that the Cubs, Cards, and Nats are going to sweep all of their 3 game series vs non-contenders. Seeing the lifelessness of some of these teams is both frustrating and leaving me optimistic.

 

They will need at least one sweep to get to a 9-3 finish and 90 total wins. Our best chance at a sweep is probably the Pirates series this weekend. The Reds series is what scares me the most, we are only 8-8 against them this year and they will love to play spoiler.

 

Yeah, for as "easy" as our schedule may look to an outsider looking at it - I think we all know how challenging this is going to be for us. The Pads already swept us in SD earlier this year, and we despite our success against Pitt this year - I'm sure they would like nothing less than to play spoiler. Regardless though, we need to find a way to go 5-2 on this home stand.

 

But, this upcoming road trip does really scare me. First, the Reds are a much better team than their record would indicate - especially if they do line up with Gray, Castillo and DeScalfani against us next week. And, we already know that crazy things can happen in Coors Field. Not to mention, lets not forget that we ended the Rockies season last year in the playoffs - and I'm sure they would like nothing more than to end our season this year.

 

Definitely not going to be an easy 12 games here, despite what the records of these teams would suggest.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

In my ideal world, the Brewers continue winning their way to a division title, while the Cubs and Cardinals both #DERP their way out of the playoffs. I know the chances of that happening are about nothing. It would take the Nationals winning the next two then going on a run, and either the Phillies, Mets or DBacks basically winning out, while the Cubs and Cards beat on each other in their 7 games. The Cubs would need to ideally drop the next two to the Reds and somehow lose one or two to the Pirates next week on the road. In addition to the Cards losing the next two to the Nats, they'd need to get swept, or at least drop two of three to the DBacks on the road next week.

[Madhawk23]

In my ideal world, the Brewers continue winning their way to a division title, while the Cubs and Cardinals both #DERP their way out of the playoffs. I know the chances of that happening are about nothing. It would take the Nationals winning the next two then going on a run, and either the Phillies, Mets or DBacks basically winning out, while the Cubs and Cards beat on each other in their 7 games. The Cubs would need to ideally drop the next two to the Reds and somehow lose one or two to the Pirates next week on the road. In addition to the Cards losing the next two to the Nats, they'd need to get swept, or at least drop two of three to the DBacks on the road next week.

 

I'm pretty sure that's a world that we'd all love to live in here in a couple of weeks! Highly unlikely of course, but boy would that be great!

[Patrick425]

Possible some of those guys could have their last starts canceled since the Reds are out of it to save the wear and tear. Just trying to be positive, anything helps.

 

I like your optimism, but I'm sure this would be frowned on by MLB if the Reds start a bunch of minor league scrubs against us next week in that series. Maybe they take those guys out of their starts earlier than they would normally do so, but I'm guessing we see all three of those guys, if it really is their turn in the rotation. Certainly not ideal for us. I almost feel like we might need to go into next week with a game or two lead for one of the WC spots - if we are really going to make this thing happen.

 

 

I don't think MLB really gets too involved in that stuff. A team does what it wants to do and what they feel is best for the organization and MLB understands that.

[Jopal78]

Castillo's spot in the Reds rotation was last night, and they started Kevin Gausman instead. It would suck if the Reds skipped Castillo's start against the Cubs, only to start him against the Brewers.

 

 

It looks like their manager added a sixth starter, so Castillo is now scheduled to throw against the Mets on the 20th and with the six man rotation will miss the Brewers. DeScalfani is scheduled for the 21st and Bauer is scheduled for the 22nd both will miss the Brewers. So it looks like they'll face, some permutation of Gray, Mahle, and Gausman... way better.

[dlk9s]

Hey Cardinals, Cubs, and Nationals:

 

[pacopete4]

-2-back of the NL Central

-Tied for Wild Card

 

 

Yesssssss!!

[Fear The Chorizo]

It is going to be so sweet to watch all the hype and hoopla of the upcoming 7 Cubs-Cards games unfold while the Brewers quietly drift ahead of both teams in the standings

 

11 games left - going 6-5 gets them to 88 wins, which I think guarantees them a playoff spot based on the current standings and remaining schedules. 8-3 gets them to 90 wins, which I think will be enough for at least tying for the division title.

[Outlander]

6-5 could do it but guarantees nothing. Right now a 9-2 record guarantees at least a game 163.

[Jopal78]

After getting by Paddack, they have to make their move on the Cubs and Cards with the final two games of the Padres series. They’re not going to be able to gain on both the Cubs and cardinals this weekend

[Eye Black]

6-5 could do it but guarantees nothing. Right now a 9-2 record guarantees at least a game 163.

Since the Cardinals and Cubs have 7 games remaining against each other I believe a 9-2 record would guarantee the Brewers a spot at least in terms of “making” the playoffs. Assuming I am doing the math correctly, if the Brewers finished 9-2 there would be no mathematical way for BOTH the Cubs and Cardinals to finish ahead or tied with the Brewers. Also, the teams in the Wild Card race behind the Brewers are all 4.0+ GB, so they obviously couldn’t catch the Brewers if they finished 9-2.

 

Here is what I believe would be the worst case scenario for the Brewers wild card chances among things they don’t control...

 

Cardinals finish the season 6-5 including going 2-5 against the Cubs and 1-0 against the Nationals.

 

Cubs finish the season 9-2 including going 5-2 against the Cardinals.

 

Nationals finish the season 11-1 including going 0-1 against the Cardinals.

 

In that scenario the Cubs would finish with 91 wins and the Cardinals would finish with 90 wins. The Brewers would need to go 8-3 to force a Game 163 for the second Wild Card spot. If the Brewers went 9-2 they would be tied for the division lead, and the Game 163 would be to decide the division winner with both teams already guaranteed a playoff spot.

 

The above scenarios wouldn’t change drastically if the Cubs went 4-3 against the Cardinals instead of 5-2, basically then it would just flip so the Cardinals had 91 wins and the Cubs finished with 90 wins.

[82brewcrew82]

I don't know. Asking to only lose two games the rest of the way seems dicey. Next two Padre pitchers are decent, so is Gray, Williams always gives us fits. Two series on the road and Colorado is going to be itching to spoil us after last year. The pitching match ups look generally good for us and Pittsburgh looks like they've just quit but just the law of averages says we lose at lest three of the next 11 considering the streak they are on already. I am truly torn on whether they can really run the table to the tune of 9-2. This is going to be a dog fight. I'm not being pessimistic, I think they can go on a good run the rest of the way but I'm not sure where the realistic stance is. Maybe 7-4 or 8-3.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I don't know. Asking to only lose two games the rest of the way seems dicey. Next two Padre pitchers are decent, so is Gray, Williams always gives us fits. Two series on the road and Colorado is going to be itching to spoil us after last year. The pitching match ups look generally good for us and Pittsburgh looks like they've just quit but just the law of averages says we lose at lest three of the next 11 considering the streak they are on already. I am truly torn on whether they can really run the table to the tune of 9-2. This is going to be a dog fight. I'm not being pessimistic, I think they can go on a good run the rest of the way but I'm not sure where the realistic stance is. Maybe 7-4 or 8-3.

 

I think this is an extremely logical take. There is always the chance that this team could cool off and suffer a bullpen implosion at any time. I am super excited to ride this wave as far as it can take us, but the balance is tenuous. It is very reassuring knowing, though, that if the Brewers take care of business, they are in. No one saw that a month ago.

[Eye Black]

I don't know. Asking to only lose two games the rest of the way seems dicey. Next two Padre pitchers are decent, so is Gray, Williams always gives us fits. Two series on the road and Colorado is going to be itching to spoil us after last year. The pitching match ups look generally good for us and Pittsburgh looks like they've just quit but just the law of averages says we lose at lest three of the next 11 considering the streak they are on already. I am truly torn on whether they can really run the table to the tune of 9-2. This is going to be a dog fight. I'm not being pessimistic, I think they can go on a good run the rest of the way but I'm not sure where the realistic stance is. Maybe 7-4 or 8-3.

 

I think this is an extremely logical take. There is always the chance that this team could cool off and suffer a bullpen implosion at any time. I am super excited to ride this wave as far as it can take us, but the balance is tenuous. It is very reassuring knowing, though, that if the Brewers take care of business, they are in. No one saw that a month ago.

Agreed, and to be clear I don’t think anyone was “predicting” a 9-2 finish, at least in my case I was just trying to give the worst possible scenario among things the Brewers don’t control, and what it would take for the Brewers to overcome it. The odds of the worst case scenario coming to fruition are obviously fairly low (but will now probably happen because I just typed that).

[MrTPlush]

Well going into Friday with the standings like this would be nice...If the Cardinals lose today and we win....my oh my that would be crazy not even taking into consideration the possibility of the Cubs losing too. Regardless I hope to be within one of the Cardinals by the time PIT is in town, that would be ideal.

[82brewcrew82]

I don't know. Asking to only lose two games the rest of the way seems dicey. Next two Padre pitchers are decent, so is Gray, Williams always gives us fits. Two series on the road and Colorado is going to be itching to spoil us after last year. The pitching match ups look generally good for us and Pittsburgh looks like they've just quit but just the law of averages says we lose at lest three of the next 11 considering the streak they are on already. I am truly torn on whether they can really run the table to the tune of 9-2. This is going to be a dog fight. I'm not being pessimistic, I think they can go on a good run the rest of the way but I'm not sure where the realistic stance is. Maybe 7-4 or 8-3.

 

I think this is an extremely logical take. There is always the chance that this team could cool off and suffer a bullpen implosion at any time. I am super excited to ride this wave as far as it can take us, but the balance is tenuous. It is very reassuring knowing, though, that if the Brewers take care of business, they are in. No one saw that a month ago.

I think that's been true all year. The issue is, they haven't taken care of business up until this point and honestly haven't shown the consistency to do it at any point, even during stretches of competition similar to what they are looking at now. I said a long time ago that I needed to see something like a 13 of 15 stretch to believe in this team. Not because they lacked the overall talent (pitching wise they did/do) but because of the consistency. Well, they are in that type of run now.

 

Part of me thinks Lyles has brought that "Miley" effect to the rotation and it seems like all they need is one guy performing like that and the starting pitching stabilizes. I still don't know what the pen is but it isn't last years. Maybe Pomeranz was enough. Either way, really bad teams go on stretches like this and really good teams don't tend to have streaks much longer than this. I just wonder if baseball doesn't take over. Having said all of that, it does line up well and they certainly have a shot.