2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion

[sveumrules]

Soooo, every team in the history of baseball playing for the playoffs against bad teams always wins like 75% of their games? No, crap happens all the time. I mean, SD just took two from Cubs and Col beat STL last week too, I think 2/3. It happens in baseball every year. I own a Marlins hat because in 08 they knocked off the Mets (I think Mets anyway) which allowed us in the playoffs. Last year the Cubs wen 2-2 vs Pit in the last week.

 

In general, I think people get too worked up on these things in thinking they're even trying to claim to be 100% accurate. They're just providing one data point to go off and I'm sure fully acknowledge this is just a 'best guess' that can vary greatly due to all kind of factors you guys are easily pointing out. 15 years ago stuff like this didn't exist, not it does and provides more info than there was previously. That's it.

 

That said, it seems like this fangraphs formula is worse than say 538.

 

I wonder what the confidence intervals are on these projections, but, yeah, I agree with nearly all of this.

 

The odds give us a nice range of expectations. If someone told me we had a 75 percent chance of making the playoffs, I'd think they were overconfident. 25 would seem too low. Just about anything in between about 30 and 60 feels pretty defensible to me, and at that point, who cares, right? Let's play and hopefully win!

 

Bingo.

 

Current postseason odds at...

 

538: 48%

BPro: 47.7%

BRef: 38.9%

FanGraphs: 36.1%

 

Stearns also hired August Fagerstrom from FG back in November 2016 & he has worked his way up to Coordinator of Player Personnel since then & we also had a habit of acquiring guys who ranked highly on Chris Mitchell's KATOH prospect ratings published on FG before he was also hired by an MLB team, so clearly it is something our front office gives some amount of credence to, though I'd imagine they almost certainly have their own proprietary metrics & projections systems which they utilize over publicly available ones.

[sveumrules]

Was looking at the latest Fangraphs odds and they don't even have the Brewers over .500 during this 13 game stretch against under .500 teams. 6.5 - 6.5 over the last 13.

 

I'm sure that is because much of their forecasts are based on run differential.

 

That and Fangraphs sucks.

 

538 & BPro have us finishing 7-6.

 

BRef, like FanGraphs, has us finishig 6.5-6.5.

 

I guess all the projection systems suck?

[pacopete4]

I don't think it is crazy to think we finish 7-6. I hope we have a better record but come on, we've all watched this team this season. They could finish 3-10 and I wouldn't be completely shocked. Disappointed but not shocked.

[tmwiese55]

Exactly, and that's why getting worked up about these projections is pointless. It's baseball and even games among the best teams vs worst aren't all that far beyond 50/50 on a game by game small sample basis.

[MrTPlush]

You understand the Brewers use a lot of algorithms etc. to help win games or deciding who to go get or not get...right?

 

You have to take the statistical projection in this case, see how it is calculated, and ask yourself...okay why might this be too high or too low. You must gather a lot of information before coming to a conclusion. That projection is one and in my opinion a good starting point.

 

People like to say "WAR is dumb" or "Run Differential is dumb" etc., but that is mostly because people treat it like is the be all end all stat. No...it is a piece of the puzzle you can use. Using one stat/data point as an entire argument is what makes something dumb. Can you imagine how much data the Brewers look at before making a decision on something? It has to be astronomical. Whether that is something you can quantify in numbers or something that can't be.

 

I totally agree that WAR shouldn't be treated as an end-all-be-all stat. (especially considering the variation between the 2 major types), but that is what WAR really IS trying to BE--an end-all-be-all stat. So when somebody treats it that way it's hard to begrudge them for treating it that way and it actually makes more sense to rip on the stat itself as being dumb. Hmmmm....

 

Depends on the context you are using any stat in. Sometimes a general stat like WAR works and sometimes not. Like using WAR for part time players, small samples, smaller defense sample, etc. can be really wonky. WAR is kinda a lazy mans summary stat. It isn't terrible, but its a really simple summary of a players value. Like a projection I think it is a good starting point for a discussion/argument, but then pick apart what it may be compensating for too much or what it may be missing. I like WAR because it works pretty good for simple arguments/conversations. No one wants to get on here and read a novel about a players value and his predicted future value. Summary stats are necessary for conversation, like on this forum...no one has time to breakdown a player to the last nail of detail. I would rather start a conversation with WAR and move a little one way or the other than try to build a house from the foundation up so to speak.

 

End of the day you have to look at it from many different angles. There are posters that make their argument so one dimensional and beat the poor horse 5 lifetimes over. ERA isn't a bad stat, but often times is considered that way because when used as an argument that is all one wants to use. You just can't use any stat by itself.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Was looking at the latest Fangraphs odds and they don't even have the Brewers over .500 during this 13 game stretch against under .500 teams. 6.5 - 6.5 over the last 13.

 

I'm sure that is because much of their forecasts are based on run differential.

 

That and Fangraphs sucks.

 

538 & BPro have us finishing 7-6.

 

BRef, like FanGraphs, has us finishig 6.5-6.5.

 

I guess all the projection systems suck?

 

Yes, but that is based solely on emotion

[tmwiese55]

My complaint with WAR over the years is the name leads to people taking it too particularly regarding Wins and as if you can just plug joe schmo in as replacement player, basically taking it too literally. I think a term like Player Efficiency Rating like in the NBA or something similar would be a bit better.

[KeithStone53151]

I'm not overly surprised by a 7-6 projection. I think 8-5 is moreso the likely outcome based on matchups. But if you look at the teams on paper...especially with no yelich...we are by no means a far superior team to anyone we face down the stretch. The Brewers played way way way over their heads the last 10 days. It certainly can continue, but it's not safe to project that.

[benji]

I personally think WAR is a great tool to compare one player to another. Projections are great but they cant take into account injuries and if bad teams start playing young players/pitchers. That could easily allow for 1-2 more wins in 2 weeks.

[Brew crew 92]

So algorithms should be based on beliefs and opinions?

 

Doesn’t matter. This is where the human being with common sense trumps the computer. Right?

Human beings inject bias and prejudice even when trying not to. It can't be helped. You're the perfect example. You make wild and exaggerated proclamations based on your bias and prejudice. After a while you end up being wrong and walk back your exaggerated claim. You like to position yourself as "seeing" things others don't but the others are using a more statistically based argument and end up being correct more often then not over your "common sense" approach.

 

Our senses lie to us a lot. We tend to see or hear what we want to see or hear. That is the whole reason statistics exist.

 

My exaggeration’s are totally overblown around here. It’s like the proverbial fish story. I speak my mind, I am impulsive, but I know the brewers inside and out. For each time I’ve been wrong about whatever, I’ve been right twice. It’s like your bias towards me, blinds you to my dead-on takes, which are way more than you will ever admit.

 

But you know what, I’ve been dead-on with the most important thing:

 

When EVERYONE THAT COMMENTED on this site was resigned to us not making the playoffs, I wasn’t, called what’s now taking place with team a long time ago. Said the pitching would flip September 1 and it did. Said they’d go on a run and they have. Just the fact of my unwavering confidence should let you know how strongly I felt about what’s now taking place. Stats didn’t hint of any of this.

[Ennder]

Well if we go 8-5 that is the same as a 100 win pace over a season. 7-6 is an 87 win pace which seems more reasonable. I doubt their projections can take into account teams sitting starters because they are out of the race either. Even if it could you have hard to project rookies stepping in and who knows what they are going to do.

[tmwiese55]

JJ ace, Nelson ace, Freitas, owner cheap, Grandal, GM, Counsell..... ah what's the point by now

[sveumrules]

When EVERYONE THAT COMMENTED on this site was resigned to us not making the playoffs, I wasn’t, called what’s now taking place with team a long time ago. Said the pitching would flip September 1 and it did. Said they’d go on a run and they have. Just the fact of my unwavering confidence should let you know how strongly I felt about what’s now taking place. Stats didn’t hint of any of this.

 

If you knew all this would happen why did you want to fire Stearns for not selling high on Yelich & Hader at the deadline?

[82brewcrew82]

JJ ace, Nelson ace, Freitas, owner cheap, Grandal, GM, Counsell..... ah what's the point by now

Multiple aces, best 40 man depth by far, Brewers finanaces, Nelson to start opening day...........

[Brew crew 92]

JJ ace, Nelson ace, Freitas, owner cheap, Grandal, GM, Counsell..... ah what's the point by now

 

I can crush all your silly incorrect assertions, except for the ones I’ve already admitted I was wrong on. Aces, Nelson are 2 of those.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

JJ ace, Nelson ace, Freitas, owner cheap, Grandal, GM, Counsell..... ah what's the point by now

Multiple aces, best 40 man depth by far, Brewers finanaces, Nelson to start opening day...........

 

Perdomo, Devin Williams and Rasmussen bullpen studs, Aaron Wilkerson rotation stud, Zach Davies is horrible. The list is nearly endless at this point.

[Ennder]

When EVERYONE THAT COMMENTED on this site was resigned to us not making the playoffs, I wasn’t, called what’s now taking place with team a long time ago. Said the pitching would flip September 1 and it did. Said they’d go on a run and they have. Just the fact of my unwavering confidence should let you know how strongly I felt about what’s now taking place. Stats didn’t hint of any of this.

 

If you knew all this would happen why did you want to fire Stearns for not selling high on Yelich & Hader at the deadline?

 

 

I also doubt everyone was resigned to us not making the playoffs. I never thought it was over. That Cubs series created a pretty large hill to climb though.

 

It is the nature of baseball though, if you spout stuff out constantly you are going to be correct every once in a while because the game is so unpredictable.

[Brew crew 92]

JJ ace, Nelson ace, Freitas, owner cheap, Grandal, GM, Counsell..... ah what's the point by now

Multiple aces, best 40 man depth by far, Brewers finanaces, Nelson to start opening day...........

 

Perdomo, Devin Williams and Rasmussen bullpen studs, Aaron Wilkerson rotation stud, Zach Davies is horrible. The list is nearly endless at this point.

 

Can’t deny I don’t like Davies. Perdomo not looking good because of command issue. Williams And Rasmussen im confident will be studs. Never said Wilkerson was a stud of any kind. See this is what I’m saying, you exaggerate my takes to the point of silliness.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

 

Can’t deny I don’t like Davies. Perdomo not looking good because of command issue. Williams And Rasmussen im confident will be studs. Never said Wilkerson was a stud of any kind. See this is what I’m saying, you exaggerate my takes to the point of silliness.

 

That is a flat out lie. You wanted Wilkerson up and starting in the worst way when he started out hot in spring at AAA, and got mad when other posters referred to him as a AAAA player. You were in love with him because he had command of all his pitches. I think you've made so many outlandish predictions that you have probably forgotten some of them. I remember this one especially, though, because you were so, so in love with the idea of having a "true pitcher" in the rotation.

[Brew crew 92]

 

Can’t deny I don’t like Davies. Perdomo not looking good because of command issue. Williams And Rasmussen im confident will be studs. Never said Wilkerson was a stud of any kind. See this is what I’m saying, you exaggerate my takes to the point of silliness.

 

That is a flat out lie. You wanted Wilkerson up and starting in the worst way when he started out hot in spring at AAA, and got mad when other posters referred to him as a AAAA player. You were in love with him because he had command of all his pitches. I think you've made so many outlandish predictions that you have probably forgotten some of them. I remember this one especially, though, because you were so, so in love with the idea of having a "true pitcher" in the rotation.

 

I did want him given an opportunity to start yes, but that’s a far cry from calling him a stud. Stop. You know I never believed him to be that.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Let's get this back on topic ASAP.

[Brew crew 92]

When EVERYONE THAT COMMENTED on this site was resigned to us not making the playoffs, I wasn’t, called what’s now taking place with team a long time ago. Said the pitching would flip September 1 and it did. Said they’d go on a run and they have. Just the fact of my unwavering confidence should let you know how strongly I felt about what’s now taking place. Stats didn’t hint of any of this.

 

If you knew all this would happen why did you want to fire Stearns for not selling high on Yelich & Hader at the deadline?

 

 

I also doubt everyone was resigned to us not making the playoffs. I never thought it was over. That Cubs series created a pretty large hill to climb though.

 

It is the nature of baseball though, if you spout stuff out constantly you are going to be correct every once in a while because the game is so unpredictable.

 

Ya ya. That’s baseball. I didn’t say everyone was resigned to us not making the playoffs. I said everyone that COMMENTED.

[FVBrewerFan]

When EVERYONE THAT COMMENTED on this site was resigned to us not making the playoffs, I wasn’t, called what’s now taking place with team a long time ago. Said the pitching would flip September 1 and it did. Said they’d go on a run and they have. Just the fact of my unwavering confidence should let you know how strongly I felt about what’s now taking place. Stats didn’t hint of any of this.

 

If you knew all this would happen why did you want to fire Stearns for not selling high on Yelich & Hader at the deadline?

 

Notice he hasn't responded, and it's an excellent question.

[RollieTime]

When EVERYONE THAT COMMENTED on this site was resigned to us not making the playoffs, I wasn’t, called what’s now taking place with team a long time ago. Said the pitching would flip September 1 and it did. Said they’d go on a run and they have. Just the fact of my unwavering confidence should let you know how strongly I felt about what’s now taking place. Stats didn’t hint of any of this.

 

If you knew all this would happen why did you want to fire Stearns for not selling high on Yelich & Hader at the deadline?

 

*Mic Drop*

[tmwiese55]

JJ ace, Nelson ace, Freitas, owner cheap, Grandal, GM, Counsell..... ah what's the point by now

 

I can crush all your silly incorrect assertions, except for the ones I’ve already admitted I was wrong on. Aces, Nelson are 2 of those.

 

Crush me on what? essentially the only thing you've been right about is a hot streak in September helped by an improved bullpen (in spite of being wrong about several of the bullpen guys that would do it, but others stepped up as well to balance). And that Hiura would be good at hitting, big shocker there. But this after 2-3 weeks earlier saying the team and pitching staff, organizational depth, roster construction, etc was so bad that everyone should be fired and we need a new owner. Sooo, you took both sides of it, tough not to be right then.