2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion

[MrTPlush]

Fangraphs is a great tool. Some parts of it better than others. Projections in general are pretty dumb. It is statistical models based on the past and uses data at face value. It has limitations. We aren't that good of a baseball team and our pitching is putting on a great disguise these days. This isn't the 2018 team and certainly not safe from struggling against inferior competition. I also don't think we are that much better than the teams we are about to play...at least not so much better it should be assumed it will be a cake walk. Just like the Cardinals aren't that much better than us so just assuming we would lose 2 this past weekend was a little silly.

 

I am certainly taking the over on that 6.5, but would anyone be shocked if we went 6-7 to end the season...? I would be ticked, but shocked...probably not. The winning streak is nice, but it didn't just suddenly make us the Dodgers or Astros good. This team could go 5-8 or 10-3 for all we know. Always risky business with the duct tape job roster we have.

[homer]

Also impacting the playoff race; Anthony Rizzo left yesterday's game with an ankle sprain. X-rays were negative but having an MRI today. While the Brewers don't have Yelich for the last 16 games, the Cubs don't have Baez either and now will be without Rizzo for at least a few games too.

 

I am not an expert...but I am going to go out on a limb and say that ankle sprain will be more than a few games easily. If I was the Cubs (or their fans) coming back in the regular season would be a total miracle. It wasn't pretty and he looked rough getting off the field. Ankle sprains usually end up as DL trips.

 

yeah, The Rockies' David Dahl has been out since like Aug 3 and will miss the rest of the season with a high ankle sprain. Rizzo could easily be out until Nov.

[Brew crew 92]

Fangraphs is a great tool. Some parts of it better than others. Projections in general are pretty dumb. It is statistical models based on the past and uses data at face value. It has limitations. We aren't that good of a baseball team and our pitching is putting on a great disguise these days. This isn't the 2018 team and certainly not safe from struggling against inferior competition. I also don't think we are that much better than the teams we are about to play...at least not so much better it should be assumed it will be a cake walk. Just like the Cardinals aren't that much better than us so just assuming we would lose 2 this past weekend was a little silly.

 

I am certainly taking the over on that 6.5, but would anyone be shocked if we went 6-7 to end the season...? I would be ticked, but shocked...probably not. The winning streak is nice, but it didn't just suddenly make us the Dodgers or Astros good. This team could go 5-8 or 10-3 for all we know. Always risky business with the duct tape job roster we have.

 

But, these are not regular season games per-say, far from it. Burning desire to win trumps everything. We know from experience, teams that absolutely have to win vs teams that don’t, usually do win, I would argue at an unusually high rate. That’s why, with all other factors being equal the projection of the crew at 6.5 is asinine.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

It's baseball. I would recommend using Fangraphs' "coin flip" model for postseason odds. As a prior, it assumes that every game is a 50-50 shot. Now, of course that's not true. But for a two-week sample of baseball, I think it's better than using run differential or roster strength.

 

Using that model, we are about 44 percent to make the playoffs, as opposed to 36 percent straight-up. I think that reflects my feeling about this race. There are drawbacks to the Cubs and Cards playing each other so much, especially given that we're 3 back of STL. 8-5 gives the Brewers a good shot, but that's going to be tough. It won't be "choking" if they don't make it, at least not in my view.

 

2-2 against the Padres would be underwhelming but would keep you afloat.

[Jopal78]

Also impacting the playoff race; Anthony Rizzo left yesterday's game with an ankle sprain. X-rays were negative but having an MRI today. While the Brewers don't have Yelich for the last 16 games, the Cubs don't have Baez either and now will be without Rizzo for at least a few games too.

 

I am not an expert...but I am going to go out on a limb and say that ankle sprain will be more than a few games easily. If I was the Cubs (or their fans) coming back in the regular season would be a total miracle. It wasn't pretty and he looked rough getting off the field. Ankle sprains usually end up as DL trips.

 

yeah, The Rockies' David Dahl has been out since like Aug 3 and will miss the rest of the season with a high ankle sprain. Rizzo could easily be out until Nov.

 

 

No Baez, likely No Rizzo. Bryant with the aid of a cortisone injection has been playing through an ailing heel and knee. No timetable on Kimbrel's return from elbow inflammation. The injury bug is really working over the Cubs late in the year.

[Madhawk23]

No doubt - these next few weeks are huge. And, now that we are into August, the light at the end of this 2019 tunnel is becoming clearer. Here's how I think this thing needs to play out for the Brewers (knowing full well of course that nothing ever seems to go according to plan):

 

Tex: win 2/3 (won 2/3)

Min: win 1/2 (won 1/2)

@Was: win 2/3 (won 1/3)

@Stl: win 1/3 (won 1/3)

Ari: win 2/3 (won 2/3)

Stl: win 2/3 (won 1/3)

@Chc: win 1/3 (won 2/3)

Hou: win 1/2 (won 1/2)

Chc: win 2/4 (won 3/4)

@Mia: win 3/4 (won 4/4)

@Stl: win 2/3 (won 4/4)

SD: win 2/4

Pit: win 2/3

@Cin: win 2/3

@Col: win 2/3

 

To me, these expectations seem a bit lofty - especially given the current state of our pitching staff. And, this would still only leave us at 87 wins. Is that enough to hunt down the Cubs? Or, are we probably more likely to be going for a WC spot with this scenario? We'd have to hope that the Cubs go 25-23 down the stretch if we were to force a game 163 with them again this year, or 24-24 to beat them outright. Boy, that seems like it is a tough "ask," doesn't it? My guess is that the Cubs end up winning 90 games and taking the division by 3-4 games, when all is said and done. If we can get to 87 though, I'd have to think we'd at least be in a fight for one of the two WC spots.

 

Madtownhawk hasn't updated his August 8 vision in a while so I thought I would give him some props. He has been pretty close so far (the Brewers actually have one more win than the path he identified). It has helped that 2 of the extra wins were against the Cubs who we are chasing for the 2nd wild card. Looking ahead, his view of 10-6 in the last 16 seems pretty realistic (though it might be 1/3 vs. STL and 3/4 vs. SD). However, like many of us, he didn't anticipate the Cardinals playing out of their minds the past month to make our chase of the Cubs for the WC instead of the division title.

 

Thanks for updating this last week IIAY! I was thrilled to see the Crew play one game better than my prediction (especially after the Yeli injury), but thought for sure we'd fall back in STL. But, this group just continues to find a way. Still one game ahead of my pace towards 87 wins. Now, I only had us splitting the SD series and taking 2/3 against Pitt. I think we might need to go 5-2 on this homestand now if we really want to make a run at one of these playoff spots. Not sure if 87 gets it done anymore, and so I think picking up a game on my prediction for this home stand is key. Then, I think we are still going to need to go out and take 2/3 in each of those series on the last road trip. Not going to be easy (especially without the MVP), but it's fun that we are at least playing very meaningful games with 2 weeks remaining.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Fangraphs is a great tool. Some parts of it better than others. Projections in general are pretty dumb. It is statistical models based on the past and uses data at face value. It has limitations. We aren't that good of a baseball team and our pitching is putting on a great disguise these days. This isn't the 2018 team and certainly not safe from struggling against inferior competition. I also don't think we are that much better than the teams we are about to play...at least not so much better it should be assumed it will be a cake walk. Just like the Cardinals aren't that much better than us so just assuming we would lose 2 this past weekend was a little silly.

 

I am certainly taking the over on that 6.5, but would anyone be shocked if we went 6-7 to end the season...? I would be ticked, but shocked...probably not. The winning streak is nice, but it didn't just suddenly make us the Dodgers or Astros good. This team could go 5-8 or 10-3 for all we know. Always risky business with the duct tape job roster we have.

 

But, these are not regular season games per-say, far from it. Burning desire to win trumps everything. We know from experience, teams that absolutely have to win vs teams that don’t, usually do win, I would argue at an unusually high rate. That’s why, with all other factors being equal the projection of the crew at 6.5 is asinine.

 

I don't think you understand how projections and algorithms work. There is absolutely no way to measure "burning desire to win". I mean, you can argue that the algorithms are wrong, or something like run differential is skewing the data they are using to a much higher degree than it should be, but you aren't saying that at all here.

[MrTPlush]

Fangraphs is a great tool. Some parts of it better than others. Projections in general are pretty dumb. It is statistical models based on the past and uses data at face value. It has limitations. We aren't that good of a baseball team and our pitching is putting on a great disguise these days. This isn't the 2018 team and certainly not safe from struggling against inferior competition. I also don't think we are that much better than the teams we are about to play...at least not so much better it should be assumed it will be a cake walk. Just like the Cardinals aren't that much better than us so just assuming we would lose 2 this past weekend was a little silly.

 

I am certainly taking the over on that 6.5, but would anyone be shocked if we went 6-7 to end the season...? I would be ticked, but shocked...probably not. The winning streak is nice, but it didn't just suddenly make us the Dodgers or Astros good. This team could go 5-8 or 10-3 for all we know. Always risky business with the duct tape job roster we have.

 

But, these are not regular season games per-say, far from it. Burning desire to win trumps everything. We know from experience, teams that absolutely have to win vs teams that don’t, usually do win, I would argue at an unusually high rate. That’s why, with all other factors being equal the projection of the crew at 6.5 is asinine.

 

Sure, I agree playing teams out of it certainly can be to the benefit of us...among other things not reflected in past stats/data (like losing Rizzo or us losing Yelich etc.). But projections are stupid...because they rarely account for things like that. How that projection was calculated is dumb, like most, when reality is likely going to be different. That being said if we just round it up to 7-6...it isn't necessarily that out of the realm of possibility. It is a projection not a prediction. That is what 149 games of data says is likely to happen. You have to take statistics for what they are worth, statistics is a language.

 

I bet if you asked fangraphs staff to make predictions they would go against the projection systems a lot...just because a human brain can take into consideration a lot of things that are hard to measure with statistics. How exactly do you measure the motivation of PIT or COL? You really can't and it is even hard to predict that. To me projections and predictions are entirely different things.

[Brew crew 92]

Fangraphs is a great tool. Some parts of it better than others. Projections in general are pretty dumb. It is statistical models based on the past and uses data at face value. It has limitations. We aren't that good of a baseball team and our pitching is putting on a great disguise these days. This isn't the 2018 team and certainly not safe from struggling against inferior competition. I also don't think we are that much better than the teams we are about to play...at least not so much better it should be assumed it will be a cake walk. Just like the Cardinals aren't that much better than us so just assuming we would lose 2 this past weekend was a little silly.

 

I am certainly taking the over on that 6.5, but would anyone be shocked if we went 6-7 to end the season...? I would be ticked, but shocked...probably not. The winning streak is nice, but it didn't just suddenly make us the Dodgers or Astros good. This team could go 5-8 or 10-3 for all we know. Always risky business with the duct tape job roster we have.

 

But, these are not regular season games per-say, far from it. Burning desire to win trumps everything. We know from experience, teams that absolutely have to win vs teams that don’t, usually do win, I would argue at an unusually high rate. That’s why, with all other factors being equal the projection of the crew at 6.5 is asinine.

 

I don't think you understand how projections and algorithms work. There is absolutely no way to measure "burning desire to win". I mean, you can argue that the algorithms are wrong, or something like run differential is skewing the data they are using to a much higher degree than it should be, but you aren't saying that at all here.

 

It’s called common sense. Why use algorithms that can’t measure the obvious #1 factor? Anyone that knows anything about the game of baseball that thinks the brewers won’t win at least 7 games is clueless. If you ask 100 experienced baseball fans if the brewers will win 7 or more games, I believe it would be at least 90 that say yes.

[Jopal78]

It is sort of interesting that everyone knows the Pirates melted down after June going 26-42. What is interesting is the Padres have gone 26-40 over the same time period, an equally monumental collapse. I guess you need a couple of teammate fights to really shed light on an implosion

[pacopete4]

So algorithms should be based on beliefs and opinions?

[Brew crew 92]

So algorithms should be based on beliefs and opinions?

 

Doesn’t matter. This is where the human being with common sense trumps the computer. Right?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

So algorithms should be based on beliefs and opinions?

 

Doesn’t matter. This is where the human being with common sense trumps the computer. Right?

 

That's the difference between a projection and a prediction.

[tmwiese55]

Soooo, every team in the history of baseball playing for the playoffs against bad teams always wins like 75% of their games? No, crap happens all the time. I mean, SD just took two from Cubs and Col beat STL last week too, I think 2/3. It happens in baseball every year. I own a Marlins hat because in 08 they knocked off the Mets (I think Mets anyway) which allowed us in the playoffs. Last year the Cubs wen 2-2 vs Pit in the last week.

 

In general, I think people get too worked up on these things in thinking they're even trying to claim to be 100% accurate. They're just providing one data point to go off and I'm sure fully acknowledge this is just a 'best guess' that can vary greatly due to all kind of factors you guys are easily pointing out. 15 years ago stuff like this didn't exist, now it does and provides more info than there was previously. That's it.

 

That said, it seems like this fangraphs formula is worse than say 538.

[TURBO]

It’s called common sense. Why use algorithms that can’t measure the obvious #1 factor? Anyone that knows anything about the game of baseball that thinks the brewers won’t win at least 7 games is clueless. If you ask 100 experienced baseball fans if the brewers will win 7 or more games, I believe it would be at least 90 that say yes.

 

I think you are wrong, so very wrong about everything in this post.

[MrTPlush]

You understand the Brewers use a lot of algorithms etc. to help win games or deciding who to go get or not get...right?

 

You have to take the statistical projection in this case, see how it is calculated, and ask yourself...okay why might this be too high or too low. You must gather a lot of information before coming to a conclusion. That projection is one and in my opinion a good starting point.

 

People like to say "WAR is dumb" or "Run Differential is dumb" etc., but that is mostly because people treat it like is the be all end all stat. No...it is a piece of the puzzle you can use. Using one stat/data point as an entire argument is what makes something dumb. Can you imagine how much data the Brewers look at before making a decision on something? It has to be astronomical. Whether that is something you can quantify in numbers or something that can't be.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Soooo, every team in the history of baseball playing for the playoffs against bad teams always wins like 75% of their games? No, crap happens all the time. I mean, SD just took two from Cubs and Col beat STL last week too, I think 2/3. It happens in baseball every year. I own a Marlins hat because in 08 they knocked off the Mets (I think Mets anyway) which allowed us in the playoffs. Last year the Cubs wen 2-2 vs Pit in the last week.

 

In general, I think people get too worked up on these things in thinking they're even trying to claim to be 100% accurate. They're just providing one data point to go off and I'm sure fully acknowledge this is just a 'best guess' that can vary greatly due to all kind of factors you guys are easily pointing out. 15 years ago stuff like this didn't exist, not it does and provides more info than there was previously. That's it.

 

That said, it seems like this fangraphs formula is worse than say 538.

 

I wonder what the confidence intervals are on these projections, but, yeah, I agree with nearly all of this.

 

The odds give us a nice range of expectations. If someone told me we had a 75 percent chance of making the playoffs, I'd think they were overconfident. 25 would seem too low. Just about anything in between about 30 and 60 feels pretty defensible to me, and at that point, who cares, right? Let's play and hopefully win!

[Fear The Chorizo]

I hate Fangraphs, but I'll give them some props on their NL Central projections thus far - at the start of the season they had the Cubs at 87, Cards at 86, and Brewers at 85 wins. it wouldn't surprise me - while it's likely that all three of those win totals are off by 5-8, at least they're in the ballpark and it's likely the final standings will have these teams all separated by 2ish games. Both the Reds and Pirates continue to underperform projections, which is why the other 3 NL Central teams' win totals are likely going to wind up a bit higher than what FG forecasted back in March. At least they guestimated the Brewers within 10 games this season...

 

FG projecting the Brewers to finish 6-7 seems more like them trying to equalize their preseason prediction on their overall record more than looking at how they're playing now and who they've got left on their schedule. sure, 6-7 is possible, but that would be a trainwreck of a finish. I'd view 8-5 as the over-under based on how this team is playing, and I'll go out on a limb and pick the over.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Soooo, every team in the history of baseball playing for the playoffs against bad teams always wins like 75% of their games? No, crap happens all the time. I mean, SD just took two from Cubs and Col beat STL last week too, I think 2/3. It happens in baseball every year. I own a Marlins hat because in 08 they knocked off the Mets (I think Mets anyway) which allowed us in the playoffs. Last year the Cubs wen 2-2 vs Pit in the last week.

 

In general, I think people get too worked up on these things in thinking they're even trying to claim to be 100% accurate. They're just providing one data point to go off and I'm sure fully acknowledge this is just a 'best guess' that can vary greatly due to all kind of factors you guys are easily pointing out. 15 years ago stuff like this didn't exist, not it does and provides more info than there was previously. That's it.

 

That said, it seems like this fangraphs formula is worse than say 538.

 

I wonder what the confidence intervals are on these projections, but, yeah, I agree with nearly all of this.

 

The odds give us a nice range of expectations. If someone told me we had a 75 percent chance of making the playoffs, I'd think they were overconfident. 25 would seem too low. Just about anything in between about 30 and 60 feels pretty defensible to me, and at that point, who cares, right? Let's play and hopefully win!

 

And, it'll become apparent as this week progresses just how much control the Brewers have of their playoff destiny - regardless of what happens with the teams in front of them playing each other in the standings, the Brewers' playoff odds should increase around 8% with each game they win since the other teams in front of them play each other. They're around 36% probability right now, that means 8 wins gets them in - while there will be some days where the percentage swings jump or drop with some variance, I really do think 8 wins secures them a playoff spot.

[KeithStone53151]

Tex: win 2/3 (won 2/3)

Min: win 1/2 (won 1/2)

@Was: win 2/3 (won 1/3)

@Stl: win 1/3 (won 1/3)

Ari: win 2/3 (won 2/3)

Stl: win 2/3 (won 1/3)

@Chc: win 1/3 (won 2/3)

Hou: win 1/2 (won 1/2)

Chc: win 2/4 (won 3/4)

@Mia: win 3/4 (won 4/4)

@Stl: win 2/3 (won 4/4)

SD: win 2/4

Pit: win 2/3

@Cin: win 2/3

@Col: win 2/3

 

Thanks for updating this last week IIAY! I was thrilled to see the Crew play one game better than my prediction (especially after the Yeli injury), but thought for sure we'd fall back in STL. But, this group just continues to find a way. Still one game ahead of my pace towards 87 wins. Now, I only had us splitting the SD series and taking 2/3 against Pitt. I think we might need to go 5-2 on this homestand now if we really want to make a run at one of these playoff spots. Not sure if 87 gets it done anymore, and so I think picking up a game on my prediction for this home stand is key. Then, I think we are still going to need to go out and take 2/3 in each of those series on the last road trip. Not going to be easy (especially without the MVP), but it's fun that we are at least playing very meaningful games with 2 weeks remaining.

 

I wouldn't get too carried away by the recent winning from the Cubs/Brewers. The Reds are a much tougher team than the Pirates right now. Reds are 7-8 this month, and they've played relatively tough teams almost every series. I would be very surprised if the Cubs swept the Reds. That said, I've personally been saying 88 for about a month now and I think 88 is a pretty safe number. At this point, I think 90 gets us the division. A lot of ways to go 8-5. Much tougher to go 10-3 unless we can get 5-6 wins this week.

[tmwiese55]

I hate Fangraphs, but I'll give them some props on their NL Central projections thus far - at the start of the season they had the Cubs at 87, Cards at 86, and Brewers at 85 wins. it wouldn't surprise me - while it's likely that all three of those win totals are off by 5-8, at least they're in the ballpark and it's likely the final standings will have these teams all separated by 2ish games. Both the Reds and Pirates continue to underperform projections, which is why the other 3 NL Central teams' win totals are likely going to wind up a bit higher than what FG forecasted back in March. At least they guestimated the Brewers within 10 games this season...

 

FG projecting the Brewers to finish 6-7 seems more like them trying to equalize their preseason prediction on their overall record more than looking at how they're playing now and who they've got left on their schedule. sure, 6-7 is possible, but that would be a trainwreck of a finish. I'd view 8-5 as the over-under based on how this team is playing, and I'll go out on a limb and pick the over.

 

And there is probably several people back then proclaiming how dumb they were because MKE won 96 games last year and are only better now with Moose/Grandal!!! It's obvious and common sense!!!

[long ball]

The more I look at the remaining schedule the more I'm thinking that there will end up being at least 1 game tie breaker game needed. Maybe it's for the WC game or maybe it's for the NLC. Maybe both. Ultimately I think the Nats will do enough to win a WC spot. Easiest way in for the Brewers is for the cards to go 5-2 vs the Cubs.

[Oxy]

You understand the Brewers use a lot of algorithms etc. to help win games or deciding who to go get or not get...right?

 

You have to take the statistical projection in this case, see how it is calculated, and ask yourself...okay why might this be too high or too low. You must gather a lot of information before coming to a conclusion. That projection is one and in my opinion a good starting point.

 

People like to say "WAR is dumb" or "Run Differential is dumb" etc., but that is mostly because people treat it like is the be all end all stat. No...it is a piece of the puzzle you can use. Using one stat/data point as an entire argument is what makes something dumb. Can you imagine how much data the Brewers look at before making a decision on something? It has to be astronomical. Whether that is something you can quantify in numbers or something that can't be.

 

I totally agree that WAR shouldn't be treated as an end-all-be-all stat. (especially considering the variation between the 2 major types), but that is what WAR really IS trying to BE--an end-all-be-all stat. So when somebody treats it that way it's hard to begrudge them for treating it that way and it actually makes more sense to rip on the stat itself as being dumb. Hmmmm....

[pacopete4]

So algorithms should be based on beliefs and opinions?

 

Doesn’t matter. This is where the human being with common sense trumps the computer. Right?

 

That's the difference between a projection and a prediction.

 

This. Words matter.

[82brewcrew82]

So algorithms should be based on beliefs and opinions?

 

Doesn’t matter. This is where the human being with common sense trumps the computer. Right?

Human beings inject bias and prejudice even when trying not to. It can't be helped. You're the perfect example. You make wild and exaggerated proclamations based on your bias and prejudice. After a while you end up being wrong and walk back your exaggerated claim. You like to position yourself as "seeing" things others don't but the others are using a more statistically based argument and end up being correct more often then not over your "common sense" approach.

 

Our senses lie to us a lot. We tend to see or hear what we want to see or hear. That is the whole reason statistics exist.