2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion

[jjfanec]

It is funny to say the Cubs have a lot of money coming off the books because while that is true they also will have to replace at least 3 rotation spots with no good internal options, most of their bullpen that wasnt good anyway (Cishek and Kintzler were probably their best), sign guys like Bryant, Contreras and Baez, and pay more in arbitration for them in mean time. They may have a lot of money coming off the books but they have a lot of money they are going to need to spend just to maintain

[Boomer5]

Run differential is important. The fact is we give up a lot of runs and don’t score as much. That’s not good no matter how you spin it.

 

CC has really managed around a mess of a team to keep us in the thick of it.

 

Going forward we will need to score more than we give up.

 

 

When the brewers make the playoffs with a negative RD, what will be your excuse then.

 

Counsell is a big reason why this team is outperforming it’s RD.

 

I literally said exactly that. CC is why we are winning despite having a roster that gives up more than it scores.

 

Yes blowouts skew the numbers but good teams blow other teams out more than they are on the short end over 162 games.

 

We are good enough to stay close to allow CC to navigate wins with a bulk being high leverage decisions , but not good enough to win enough 7-3 type games.

[MrTPlush]

They may have a lot of money coming off the books...but in reality they don’t. They have major arbitration costs coming up and already a number of big FA contracts on the roster right now. A lot of aging guys, a lot of guys approaching FA, etc.

 

It really isn’t being treated as a team prioritizing sustainability. Signing old FA pitchers is going to get ugly sooner rather than later.

[82brewcrew82]

It is funny to say the Cubs have a lot of money coming off the books because while that is true they also will have to replace at least 3 rotation spots with no good internal options, most of their bullpen that wasnt good anyway (Cishek and Kintzler were probably their best), sign guys like Bryant, Contreras and Baez, and pay more in arbitration for them in mean time. They may have a lot of money coming off the books but they have a lot of money they are going to need to spend just to maintain

I thought it was funny as well. The thing that made me chuckle is what does it matter if you have a large payroll and money coming off the books if you are just going to be stupid about how you spend it like they have to this point.

[dlk9s]

I want the division.

[Brew crew 92]

It is funny to say the Cubs have a lot of money coming off the books because while that is true they also will have to replace at least 3 rotation spots with no good internal options, most of their bullpen that wasnt good anyway (Cishek and Kintzler were probably their best), sign guys like Bryant, Contreras and Baez, and pay more in arbitration for them in mean time. They may have a lot of money coming off the books but they have a lot of money they are going to need to spend just to maintain

 

Theo/Hoyer/Madden are gone after this year. then as Sandy Anderson said on MLB now last week, the “large markets will hire the smart GM, and never lose again, unless there are changes”.

[pacopete4]

The Brewers have played 41 games decided by 1-run. They have won 26 (26-15)of those games.

 

The Cards are 21-21 and the Cubs are 19-22.

[adambr2]

If Stearns wasted as much money as Theo has the Brewers would already be in another rebuild.

[82brewcrew82]

If Stearns wasted as much money as Theo has the Brewers would already be in another rebuild.

I don't think the Brewers have as much money as boy king has wasted.

[Bombers]

Brewers - SD (4), PIT, @ CIN, @ COL - 13

Cubs - CIN, STL (4), @ PIT, @ STL - 13

Cards - WAS, @ CHC (4), @ ARI, CHC - 13

AZ - MIA, @ SD, STL, SD - 12

PHI – @ ATL, @ CLE, @ WAS (5), MIA - 14

WAS - @ STL, @ MIA, PHI (5), CLE - 14

 

Brewers have catapulted themselves into it with a 6-1 road trip and a current 9-1 ten game stretch. They now have a shot at a 90 win season

[MrTPlush]

Considering the recent play and the schedule it would be borderline choking for us to be done after Game 162

[Ennder]

I'm a big stats guy in general and I have to say that run differential is very low on the ranking of meaningful stats. One team leaving their bad RPs out to dry to give up 15 runs does not change how good a team is in important games. This is one of those stats that skews meaningless more than meaningful. I mean if you have like a -100 and you are 10 games over that is fishy, but it isn't a metric that you can use to really compare teams.

 

But basically all the metrics say the Cubs roster is significantly better than the Brewers. Run differential means nothing compared to wins and losses, but it's a pretty good indicator of the talent an organization has.

 

I never mentioned the Cubs in my post, not sure why you assumed I was saying anything about them. I'm just saying run differential is not a stat that I invest in heavily. I'm not sure why I'm counting what Corbin Burnes did in April as to how good a team the Brewers have today or how the bench player we used to pitch a game and had him give up 6 extra runs matters. It just isn't a stat I rely on.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I view run differential the same way I view RBI as a stat for how today's game is played - it isn't very predictive and its more an end result of how certain teams are structured. It's far easier now for a team with a handful of dominant relievers to scratch out a bunch of 1 and 2 run victories and then let scrubs get pummeled during games where it just won't be your day and you just don't have great starting pitching to hide those marginal relievers from making too many appearances.

 

The Brewers' biggest stretch of struggles in the W/L column came when even Hader wasn't reliable in the pen, which led to blowing a handful of games we as fans were used to winning. The 2018 brewers won 96 games with a +107 run differential - markedly better than this year's squad, but actually quite low for a team who led the league in wins. This is just how the Brewers are put together.

 

I'd argue teams like the Cubs are built to pile up a larger run differential than what their win total would predict, because their offense is streaky hot or cold, and the ballpark they play in is conducive to high scoring games more often than not when the weather warms up. Plus, their bullpen is leaky enough that they wind up blowing more late inning leads than most in close games - when they win they typically win big, and they probably lose more frequently than they should in close games because their bullpen sucks. That's not being unlucky, that's just how their roster is constructed. Case in point over this weekend, the Cubs wound up adding a +30 to their run differential total for the season against a Pirates club who has mailed it in while Wrigley played more like an arch softball league park than a MLB field due to optimal wind/weather conditions for offense. They are a whopping +48 against the Pirates for the season over 16 games played, which is almost half their current +112 run total. The crazy part of that is to date their season series record against the Pirates is 11-5, with one of their losses being by 13 runs!

 

While looking at the Brewers' season schedule, they seemingly had at around 1 shellacking every 3-4 weeks that offset any marginal games a bunch of closer wins had to their run differential:

 

April 22 - 13-5 loss to the cards

May 1 - 11-4 loss to rockies

June 4 - 16-0 to the Marlins

July 6 - 12-2 loss to the pirates

July 23 - 14-6 loss to the reds

aug 18 - 16-8 loss to the nats

aug 26 - 12-2 loss to the cards

sept 13 - 10-0 loss to the cards

 

That's a -77 over just 8 games - If you take away the Brewers' 12 run win against the Braves back on July 16, that -77 over 8 games offsets every other one of the Brewers' 32 other wins since the all star break.

 

There are alot of different ways to put together a winning baseball team - the teams with really good starting pitching and a solid offense typically have a high run differential because they typically win the most games and don't run into many blowout losses. The Brewers don't have that type of rotation, not by a long shot. But, they can still find ways to win more than they lose by managing their roster and bullpen well - even if it looks held together by chicken wire at times.

[Brew crew 92]

I view run differential the same way I view RBI as a stat for how today's game is played - it isn't very predictive and its more an end result of how certain teams are structured. It's far easier now for a team with a handful of dominant relievers to scratch out a bunch of 1 and 2 run victories and then let scrubs get pummeled during games where it just won't be your day and you just don't have great starting pitching to hide those marginal relievers from making too many appearances.

 

The Brewers' biggest stretch of struggles in the W/L column came when even Hader wasn't reliable in the pen, which led to blowing a handful of games we as fans were used to winning. The 2018 brewers won 96 games with a +107 run differential - markedly better than this year's squad, but actually quite low for a team who led the league in wins. This is just how the Brewers are put together.

 

I'd argue teams like the Cubs are built to pile up a larger run differential than what their win total would predict, because their offense is streaky hot or cold, and the ballpark they play in is conducive to high scoring games more often than not when the weather warms up. Plus, their bullpen is leaky enough that they wind up blowing more late inning leads than most in close games - when they win they typically win big, and they probably lose more frequently than they should in close games because their bullpen sucks. That's not being unlucky, that's just how their roster is constructed. Case in point over this weekend, the Cubs wound up adding a +30 to their run differential total for the season against a Pirates club who has mailed it in while Wrigley played more like an arch softball league park than a MLB field due to optimal wind/weather conditions for offense. They are a whopping +48 against the Pirates for the season over 16 games played, which is almost half their current +112 run total. The crazy part of that is to date their season series record against the Pirates is 11-5, with one of their losses being by 13 runs!

 

While looking at the Brewers' season schedule, they seemingly had at around 1 shellacking every 3-4 weeks that offset any marginal games a bunch of closer wins had to their run differential:

 

April 22 - 13-5 loss to the cards

May 1 - 11-4 loss to rockies

June 4 - 16-0 to the Marlins

July 6 - 12-2 loss to the pirates

July 23 - 14-6 loss to the reds

aug 18 - 16-8 loss to the nats

aug 26 - 12-2 loss to the cards

sept 13 - 10-0 loss to the cards

 

That's a -77 over just 8 games - If you take away the Brewers' 12 run win against the Braves back on July 16, that -77 over 8 games offsets every other one of the Brewers' 32 other wins since the all star break.

 

There are alot of different ways to put together a winning baseball team - the teams with really good starting pitching and a solid offense typically have a high run differential because they typically win the most games and don't run into many blowout losses. The Brewers don't have that type of rotation, not by a long shot. But, they can still find ways to win more than they lose by managing their roster and bullpen well - even if it looks held together by chicken wire at times.

 

 

Great post.

Really well done, explaining the Brewers RD anomaly. I would add the sheer number of nail biters this team has had, has battle hardened the players more than other contenders, and now that this teams been reinforced with winners from AAA, this bodes extremely well this next 6 weeks.

[tmwiese55]

That's true and all and that is the flaw of the stat and why as many have said it has to be taken with a grain of salt and not as an end all be all. But in theory/general, teams being put in a position to eat shellackings like that while also not being in a position to give some out to balance it are usually not going to be as good. so in general over a huge sample and years and years of MLB data that stuff will balance out in the stats.

 

But, as we're seeing right now there are exceptions to everything. And in general I'd say for how MKE is constructed this is more than variance/luck, due to the budget leading to starting P limitations they're essentially playing a strategy that's going to lead to tons of close games. Combine that with since they have to use their pen so much more than everyone else that they're more likely to punt on games they're down and turn them into huge shallackings in order to save them pen for a game they can win. It kind of makes sense. But of course, wouldn't everyone say that it would be a better sign/indicator to not have these shellackings or to have given some out ourselves? Still, it's just one data point to go along with a thousand others in baseball.

[Fear The Chorizo]

That's true and all and that is the flaw of the stat and why as many have said it has to be taken with a grain of salt and not as an end all be all. But in theory/general, teams being put in a position to eat shellackings like that while also not being in a position to give some out to balance it are usually not going to be as good. so in general over a huge sample and years and years of MLB data that stuff will balance out in the stats.

 

But, as we're seeing right now there are exceptions to everything. And in general I'd say for how MKE is constructed this is more than variance/luck, due to the budget leading to starting P limitations they're essentially playing a strategy that's going to lead to tons of close games. Combine that with since they have to use their pen so much more than everyone else that they're more likely to punt on games their down and turn them into huge shallackings in order to save them pen for a game they can win. It kind of makes sense. But of course, wouldn't everyone say that it would be a better sign/indicator to not have these shellackings or to have given some out ourselves? Still, it's just one data point to go along with a thousand others in baseball.

 

Sure - and to be fair the Brewers have some blowout wins on their side of the ledger, too. They are 15-22 overall in games decided by 5+ runs. However in that sample of games their run differential is -56...so when they get blown out they really wear it.

 

As a team, the Brewers are 48-40 against opponents who will be or are in loose contention for the postseason (Dbacks, Braves, Cubs, Astros, Dodgers, Twins, Mets, A's, Phillies, Cards, Nats). I think those games total a +11 run differential for the Brewers, too - that's with the Brewers being 20-20 against Cubs and Cards to the tune of a -39 run differential. That means they are a whopping -40ish against non-contending clubs to date despite playing them 3 games above 0.500.

 

Bottom line, the Brewers are a flipping weird team in 2019 - that much I think we all agree on.

[MrTPlush]

From a standings perspective this is a big week. Every win this week means we have to gain a game on one of the teams in front of us (Cubs/Cards/Nationals). There is no winning and the standings staying static. There are 7 losses assured between the three teams in front of us this week.

 

If we go 5-2 this is the worst case scenario that could happen among the other teams that I could find.

 

Brewers: 5-2

Cubs: 5-2 (Sweep CIN, split with Cards)

Nationals: 3-3 (Get swept by the Cards, sweep Miami)

Cardinals : 5-2 (Sweep Nats, split with Cubs)

 

NL Central

Cardinals: ----

Cubs: 2.0 GB

Brewers: 3.0 GB

 

Wild Card

Nationals: ----

Cubs: 0.5 GB

Brewers: 1 GB

 

Of course this is worst case. The Cardinals splitting with the Cubs and losing their series to the Nats (pretty probable/possible in my opinion) would dramatically change the NL Central standings if everything else above stayed constant.

 

Brewers: 5-2

Cubs: 5-2 (Sweep CIN, split with Cards)

Nationals: 5-1 (2-1 vs. Cards, sweep Miami)

Cardinals : 3-4 (1-2 vs. Nats, split with Cubs)

 

NL Central:

Cubs: ----

Cardinals: ----

Brewers: 1 GB

 

 

 

Just random food for thought. The division is very much so in play. For us it would likely involve a Game 163...but we could still win it outright.

[Jopal78]

Also impacting the playoff race; Anthony Rizzo left yesterday's game with an ankle sprain. X-rays were negative but having an MRI today. While the Brewers don't have Yelich for the last 16 games, the Cubs don't have Baez either and now will be without Rizzo for at least a few games too.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Also impacting the playoff race; Anthony Rizzo left yesterday's game with an ankle sprain. X-rays were negative but having an MRI today. While the Brewers don't have Yelich for the last 16 games, the Cubs don't have Baez either and now will be without Rizzo for at least a few games too.

 

I'd argue that Rizzo's importance to that lineup is close to on-par with Yelich's to the Brewers' lineup. Although Caratini is a fine fill-in at 1B, he isn't near what Rizzo brings to that group.

[MrTPlush]

Also impacting the playoff race; Anthony Rizzo left yesterday's game with an ankle sprain. X-rays were negative but having an MRI today. While the Brewers don't have Yelich for the last 16 games, the Cubs don't have Baez either and now will be without Rizzo for at least a few games too.

 

I am not an expert...but I am going to go out on a limb and say that ankle sprain will be more than a few games easily. If I was the Cubs (or their fans) coming back in the regular season would be a total miracle. It wasn't pretty and he looked rough getting off the field. Ankle sprains usually end up as DL trips.

[Brew crew 92]

Also impacting the playoff race; Anthony Rizzo left yesterday's game with an ankle sprain. X-rays were negative but having an MRI today. While the Brewers don't have Yelich for the last 16 games, the Cubs don't have Baez either and now will be without Rizzo for at least a few games too.

 

No way he plays these next 2 weeks. Even the most minor of sprained ankles takes more than 2 weeks to heal up. He’s a huge loss to that team, way more than Baez. He’s their Yelich. MRI could put an end to his season. We’ll see.

[KeithStone53151]

I took a look at more realistic scenarios for this week.

 

Cards go 1-2 against the Nationals and 2-2 against the Cubs.

Cubs go 2-1 against the Res and 2-2 against the Cards

Nationals go 2-1 against the Cards and 3-0 against the Marlins.

Brewers to 3-1 against the Padres and 2-1 against the Pirates.

 

Records would be...

 

Cards 86-70

Cubs 85-71

Crew 85-71

Nats 87-67

 

This is probably the best realistic case scenario for us winning the division. If our primary goal is a playoff spot, the Cards getting bulldozed by the Cubs/Nats and only winning 1 or 2 games all week is probably best.

[Outlander]

Was looking at the latest Fangraphs odds and they don't even have the Brewers over .500 during this 13 game stretch against under .500 teams. 6.5 - 6.5 over the last 13.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Was looking at the latest Fangraphs odds and they don't even have the Brewers over .500 during this 13 game stretch against under .500 teams. 6.5 - 6.5 over the last 13.

 

I'm sure that is because much of their forecasts are based on run differential.

 

That and Fangraphs sucks.

[Brew crew 92]

Was looking at the latest Fangraphs odds and they don't even have the Brewers over .500 during this 13 game stretch against under .500 teams. 6.5 - 6.5 over the last 13.

 

Absolute idiots. Analytic geeks to the max. Zero common sense. Comical.