2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion

[82brewcrew82]

And their bullpen completely implodes again.

[jjfanec]

And their bullpen completely implodes again.

 

They went from Darvish to Edwards to Chatwood. That is a really expensive trainwreck

[82brewcrew82]

And their bullpen completely implodes again.

 

They went from Drvish to Edwards to Chatwood. That is a really expensive trainwreck

ERAs currently at 8.10, 45.00 and 13.50 respectively. We think we have pitching problems.

[82brewcrew82]

It appears that David Bell went the Joe Maddon school of bullpen management.

[Fear The Chorizo]

As bad as the cubs look, I fully expect them to win this weekend's series...because baseball

 

I hope to be pleasantly surprised by late Sunday afternoon

[Eye Black]

By the end of the weekend the Brewers and Cubs could be separated in the standings by as many as 7.5 games or as few as 1.5 games.

[Eye Black]

The Brewers 7-1 record and .875 winning percentage are both top in all of baseball. Never mind that it represents less than 1/20th of the season, it’s a great start!

[Brew crew 92]

The job that Brody VanWagenen has done with the Mets line-up and bullpen is gonna get them into the playoffs. Line-up outside of cano is young and strong with my pick for ROY in Alonso. No team has a degrom. Familia and Diaz at the backend, only thing holding that team back is their manager. East is unreal.

[82brewcrew82]

Watching Andrew Miller implode doesn't stink. So much for that Miller, Reyes and Hicks combo being un-hittable.

[Eye Black]

A windy day at Wrigley makes it even easier to see who’s on top of the NL Central standings.

 

[brewcrewdue80]

Surprised as I looked at Standings today to see Cincy is 5-8 with a +10 run differential as a result of only 37 runs against. So less than 3runs a game given up thus far. Something to keep an eye on if they have some better pitching moving forward.

[Eye Black]

Posted in the In-Game Thread as well:

 

The Cardinals are 1-5 versus the Brewers and 8-2 versus the rest of their schedule.

 

The Brewers are 10-2 versus their NL Central rivals so far.

 

There are still 64 games to play against the four others in the Central, but a good start!

[brewcrewdue80]

Tampa GM of the year. Trades Archer last year for Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows. Glasnow 4gms 4-0 1.13 ERA 24IP. Meadows I believe was .350 BA (yep) combined 2.1 BRef WAR currently. This is Max Scherzer in the making Pittsburgh dealt to TB who,ll get 5years years of Ace and a huge trade off better than Archer.

 

Just remember Glasnow's time at Pitts. Was near -2 WAR value when you're fretting this young trio of Brewer Starters. It can be like Yelich's breakout year last year when the switch gets turned and they get it.

[Eye Black]

Tampa GM of the year. Trades Archer last year for Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows. Glasnow 4gms 4-0 1.13 ERA 24IP. Meadows I believe was .350 BA (yep) combined 2.1 BRef WAR currently. This is Max Scherzer in the making Pittsburgh dealt to TB who,ll get 5years years of Ace and a huge trade off better than Archer.

 

Just remember Glasnow's time at Pitts. Was near -2 WAR value when you're fretting this young trio of Brewer Starters. It can be like Yelich's breakout year last year when the switch gets turned and they get it.

I’ll forever believe that if the Pirates hadn’t swept the Brewers in that 5-game series in July they would have never made the Archer trade. The recency bias of that series made them believe they were something that they clearly weren’t. It really seemed like they got caught up in the emotion of wanting to be relevant heading into the last couple of months of the season, and they made a trade that from the moment it was finalized had a high potential to haunt them for a really long time.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Tampa GM of the year. Trades Archer last year for Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows. Glasnow 4gms 4-0 1.13 ERA 24IP. Meadows I believe was .350 BA (yep) combined 2.1 BRef WAR currently. This is Max Scherzer in the making Pittsburgh dealt to TB who,ll get 5years years of Ace and a huge trade off better than Archer.

 

Just remember Glasnow's time at Pitts. Was near -2 WAR value when you're fretting this young trio of Brewer Starters. It can be like Yelich's breakout year last year when the switch gets turned and they get it.

I’ll forever believe that if the Pirates hadn’t swept the Brewers in that 5-game series in July they would have never made the Archer trade. The recency bias of that series made them believe they were something that they clearly weren’t. It really seemed like they got caught up in the emotion of wanting to be relevant heading into the last couple of months of the season, and they made a trade that from the moment it was finalized had a high potential to haunt them for a really long time.

 

I'm still bitter about the Game 5 no-rain delay call. That was so outrageous.

[brewcrewdue80]

So, looked at the Standings. Cubs are ahead of us by pct. points since they've played less games than Milw. How many? 4! I only see one postponement so the schedule makers just gave them extra days off. Same with Pittsburgh. And our May while having 4 days off, it's only 1 til the 20th, so we'll be 4 games played ahead, if not 5, by the time May 20th comes. The nice thing at that point is, I see Pitt makes up their PPD in a 4 game series vs Cin before hosting us for 4 games. We should be well rested while they are on fumes with 5 games in 4 days.

 

Oh and the talk of April's schedule being brutal, it's still brutal up until that May 20th day off. Schedule looks so much easier from that point through July's Trade Deadline. Getting through this stretch above .500, we'll be in great position to start playing .660 ball and climb the standings.

 

Tampa is doing something odd in that they've started Ryan Stanek now 6 games going 1 or 2 innings. Then pitching a long man and completing the final 2 or 3 innings normally. Stanek has also made 7 other bullpen appearances. Glasnow is 5-0 in 6 starts under 2 ERA still.

[Fear The Chorizo]

One of the benefits overall to having a roof on Miller Park is you've got 81 guaranteed games that won't be rescheduled due to weather. It always seems like the Brewers play a pretty heavy slate of games with fewer scheduled offdays in April/May, too - I'm sure schedule makers take advantage of a midwest team not have to play weather roulette in spring.

 

It's tough now, but it preserves the much needed days off down the stretch.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Tampa is doing something odd in that they've started Ryan Stanek now 6 games going 1 or 2 innings. Then pitching a long man and completing the final 2 or 3 innings normally. Stanek has also made 7 other bullpen appearances.

 

NOT SUSTAINABLE!!!!

 

Apparently Tampa isn't afraid to get creative.

[sveumrules]

In the OP we had a 46% chance of making the playoffs per 538.

 

As of today we have a 43% chance of making the playoffs per 538.

 

So, for as horrendously as we have played to begin the season, our playoff odds have changed negligibly.

 

For a little more context, here is a Jeff Sullivan article from June of last year which takes a look at which of 1st half actual results, 1st half pythagorean results & 2nd half projected results is better at predicting 2nd half results...

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-best-to-predict-the-seasons-second-half/

 

tl,dr version (though I highly recommend reading it as Sullivan was snatched up by the Rays) is that even half way through the season, the projections still do a much better job at predicting 2nd half results than either of 1st half actual results or 1st half pythagorean results.

 

& that is 50% through the season, we are currently about 21% through the season.

 

I know projections are a dirty word for some around here, so if you prefer, what you thought of the team entering the season is likely still more informative of their future results than what has transpired thus far.

[Jenkins5]

Right now we have played all contending, elite type teams in NL (besides maybe Reds) as long as we can stay above or around .500 until end of May we should be able to make big run in June/July when our schedule is almost all the bottom half of the league.

[Eye Black]

If you extrapolate each NL Central team based solely on current winning percentage here is the pace every team is on:

 

Cardinals - 98 wins

Cubs - 97 wins

Brewers - 88 wins

Pirates - 82 wins

Reds - 69 wins

[brewcrewdue80]

The Brewers are 3 Games back of the Best Record in Baseball. As negative as this team can feel, and the opponents they've faced, they are well within reach being the best team in Baseball.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Crazy that the Cubs have played 5 fewer games than the Brewers only ~6 weeks into the season...they're in the midst of 10 straight days with games right now before their next off day, then their rest of May and June is kind of absurd - 16 straight days with games, 1 day off, then 17 more straight days with games, 1 day off, then 17 more straight days with games. Then a 2 game set against the White Sox and it's the AS break already. I think one of those long stretches is due to a makeup game scheduled, but that's still nuts.

 

Brewers will be getting 8 days off compared to the Cubs' 3 assuming no rainouts during this same stretch - scheduling is by no means easy and all teams have ebbs and flows where there are tougher stretches of games that put strain on a roster...but there's got to be a way to even rest days out across the league. MLB might never want to go for it because it may seem like sacrilege to not have at least a few ballgames played every day of the year from April-September - but I wonder if building in a set amount of leaguewide offdays into the schedule would make sense. I'd think it'd be easier to schedule makeup games that way, and it should help even out the schedule overall.

[dlk9s]

Remember when we started 8-2 and felt like world-beaters? Then we sank and felt like crap? Well, we're back to 6 games over .500.

[Brew crew 92]

A few observations 26+% in:

 

- the Dodgers are the best team in Baseball, astros right behind them, followed by the Brewers, Cubbies, Cardinals.

 

- The 2 wild card teams will be the Cubbies and Cardinals

 

- No idea who the other playoff team will be between the Braves Phillies or Mets. Probably going with the best manager > Braves