2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion

[Boomer5]

Run differential is important. The fact is we give up a lot of runs and don’t score as much. That’s not good no matter how you spin it.

 

CC has really managed around a mess of a team to keep us in the thick of it.

 

Going forward we will need to score more than we give up.

[Brew crew 92]

Run differential is important. The fact is we give up a lot of runs and don’t score as much. That’s not good no matter how you spin it.

 

CC has really managed around a mess of a team to keep us in the thick of it.

 

Going forward we will need to score more than we give up.

 

 

When the brewers make the playoffs with a negative RD, what will be your excuse then.

 

Counsell is a big reason why this team is outperforming it’s RD.

[pacopete4]

 

Going forward we will need to score more than we give up.

 

[sveumrules]

Going forward we will need to score more than we give up.

 

Disagree.

 

I believe we will need to allow fewer runs than our opponent to have any real chance at the postseason.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I think it's facetious to say run differential doesn't matter. It definitely matters. Look at the teams that make the playoffs every single year, and you'll not often find a team with a negative run diff. I don't think people are saying you can't, but that's it's rare, and requires a bit of luck.

[pacopete4]

Let’s say we get beat by 14 runs today and the win the next 13 by 1 run. Would that be acceptable?

[DuWayne Steurer]

Let’s say we get beat by 14 runs today and the win the next 13 by 1 run. Would that be acceptable?

 

 

I'd say it would be

 

1) Acceptable

 

2) Extraordinarily unlikely

 

3) A bizarre statistical anomoly

[sveumrules]

I think run differential is the same as most stats, useful but with limitations. Teams with the best RDs win the most games & teams with the worst RDs lose the most, but it's a lot noisier in the middle, where we are.

 

One of the limitations is that we know run scoring/prevention is not something a team completely controls. It is heavily dependent upon sequencing, which involves a good deal of randomness, so is sometimes referred to as luck.

 

BaseRuns strips out the sequencing element by using the weighted run value of each individual outcome throughout a season to extrapolate how many runs a team "should" have scored/allowed & then converts those totals to W/L.

 

BaseRuns has us at 76-72 currently, much closer to our actual 79-69 record than Run Differential, which has us at 71-77.

[Brew crew 92]

I think it's facetious to say run differential doesn't matter. It definitely matters. Look at the teams that make the playoffs every single year, and you'll not often find a team with a negative run diff. I don't think people are saying you can't, but that's it's rare, and requires a bit of luck.

 

I haven’t seen a post that says RD doesn’t matter. And yes the teams with the best records have the highest RD. But, there are exceptions, like the brewers of this year, right now -31, but 10 over. A great front office, a great manager, a bad bullpen for most of the year, but a good closer, and a team that is terrible at pouring it on, that suddenly gets it all together with 28 games to play, can beat the RD.

[stalton]

For what its worth we were minus 7 in the run differential and plus 1 in game differential against the dirty birds.

[Brew crew 92]

Brewers: 11 over > -30 RD! Confounding the Analytical’s of the baseball world. Old schoolers like me are lovin’ it.

[Eye Black]

NL Central race...

 

 

 

NL Wild Card race...

 

 

 

...13 games remaining.

[MrTPlush]

Now a 4 team race for the WC. Phillies wrote their own death sentace with another loss today.

[LouisEly]

The Cardinals final 13 games are all against the Nationals, Cubs, and Diamondbacks. That's 13 guaranteed combined losses by those teams.

 

The Cardinals and Cubs play 7 more times this year. That's seven guaranteed losses combined by those teams.

 

If my math is correct, if the Brewers win 11 of their last 13 they are guaranteed to at least have a play-in game 163, and if they win 12 of their last 13 they are guaranteed to get in. Every game that the Cardinals and Cubs lose to someone other than each other reduces that number.

 

The worst thing that could happen is for the Cubs to win 4 of their last 7 against the Cardinals. Every win more or less than 4 reduces the number of games the Brewers need to win in order to make the playoffs from 12.

 

Every game that the Cardinals lose to the Nats reduces that number from 12 as well.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

The Cardinals final 13 games are all against the Nationals, Cubs, and Diamondbacks. That's 13 guaranteed combined losses by those teams.

 

The Cardinals and Cubs play 7 more times this year. That's seven guaranteed losses combined by those teams.

 

If my math is correct, if the Brewers win 11 of their last 13 they are guaranteed to at least have a play-in game 163, and if they win 12 of their last 13 they are guaranteed to get in. Every game that the Cardinals and Cubs lose to someone other than each other reduces that number.

 

The worst thing that could happen is for the Cubs to win 4 of their last 7 against the Cardinals. Every win more or less than 4 reduces the number of games the Brewers need to win in order to make the playoffs from 12.

 

Every game that the Cardinals lose to the Nats reduces that number from 12 as well.

 

But don't the Nats need factoring in too?

[fgs77]

Brewers: 11 over > -30 RD! Confounding the Analytical’s of the baseball world. Old schoolers like me are lovin’ it.

 

How is that confounding analytical people? Things like this happen all the time. It would be weird if seasons like this DIDN'T happen.

[fgs77]

Epstein frustrated with Cubs: We put Brewers back in wild-card race

 

If there's nothing else that comes from this season it is that we have fully entered the minds of that front office and put them on full tilt. Nothing would be better than sending them home early this year and shrinking their window once again.

 

At least the Cubs have a window. If the Brewers don't win the World Series this season, there isn't much to hope for going forward. This little run is a nice distraction, but we're not in good shape as an organization.

 

Also I'd prefer that the Cubs front office is cocky like last year and decides not to improve the team again.

[pacopete4]

A nice distraction?

 

[fgs77]

I'm a big stats guy in general and I have to say that run differential is very low on the ranking of meaningful stats. One team leaving their bad RPs out to dry to give up 15 runs does not change how good a team is in important games. This is one of those stats that skews meaningless more than meaningful. I mean if you have like a -100 and you are 10 games over that is fishy, but it isn't a metric that you can use to really compare teams.

 

But basically all the metrics say the Cubs roster is significantly better than the Brewers. Run differential means nothing compared to wins and losses, but it's a pretty good indicator of the talent an organization has.

[fgs77]

A nice distraction?

 

 

I want to win a World Series. That could happen by sneaking in with a wild card, but the chances of us winning it all this year are incredibly small, and once they are official 0, I just don't see what we have to be optimistic about.

[fgs77]

The Cubs dynasty is all but dead. They have a few more years of their studs and will either have to pay them big bucks thus not being able to afford pitching or sacrifice some of them to buy pitching. It’s an impending disaster with not much in the farm and depending on a huge payroll/old vets to keep you afloat.

 

They may continue to be a threat occasionally to the NL Central if they really want to sustain a massive $200mil+ payroll, but I don’t think they are going to dominate yearly any time soon again. It should be interesting to see what they do in the upcoming years.

 

They still have tons of talent, a large payroll, and tons of money coming off the books the next 2 offseasons. I just don't see how we're in any position to be criticizing that teams chances going forward. They are in pretty good shape to stay competitive for a while. Meanwhile we're getting by on smoke & mirrors.

[pacopete4]

Who lets these “fans” on here anyways?... Go take a few uppers or something.

[MrTPlush]

The Cubs dynasty is all but dead. They have a few more years of their studs and will either have to pay them big bucks thus not being able to afford pitching or sacrifice some of them to buy pitching. It’s an impending disaster with not much in the farm and depending on a huge payroll/old vets to keep you afloat.

 

They may continue to be a threat occasionally to the NL Central if they really want to sustain a massive $200mil+ payroll, but I don’t think they are going to dominate yearly any time soon again. It should be interesting to see what they do in the upcoming years.

 

They still have tons of talent, a large payroll, and tons of money coming off the books the next 2 offseasons. I just don't see how we're in any position to be criticizing that teams chances going forward. They are in pretty good shape to stay competitive for a while. Meanwhile we're getting by on smoke & mirrors.

 

I....didn’t say that? I actually said they could stay competitive in the near future if they continue to pump a crazy high payroll every year. If the big ticket free agents produce and that is asking A LOT.

 

I said they weren’t going to dominate yearly anytime soon and are not a dynasty. Probably a likely statement to be true.

[adambr2]

Like 8 out of the dude's 9 posts are directly or indirectly about the Cubs. He's a Cubs fan. Probably Big Al again under his 3rd handle. Lurker Brewer fans don't just happen to come out of the woodwork every once in awhile only to discuss the Cubs.

 

He lurks, then chimes in once in a blue moon when he sees a spot to either defend or talk up the Cubs.

[82brewcrew82]

The Cubs dynasty is all but dead. They have a few more years of their studs and will either have to pay them big bucks thus not being able to afford pitching or sacrifice some of them to buy pitching. It’s an impending disaster with not much in the farm and depending on a huge payroll/old vets to keep you afloat.

 

They may continue to be a threat occasionally to the NL Central if they really want to sustain a massive $200mil+ payroll, but I don’t think they are going to dominate yearly any time soon again. It should be interesting to see what they do in the upcoming years.

 

They still have tons of talent, a large payroll, and tons of money coming off the books the next 2 offseasons. I just don't see how we're in any position to be criticizing that teams chances going forward. They are in pretty good shape to stay competitive for a while. Meanwhile we're getting by on smoke & mirrors.

It's a Brewers message board. In part at least, we exist to criticize other teams and their modes of operation. In my mind, the Cubs are a far larger embarrassment than the Brewers this year even if they get in. With that payroll and that talent, In my opinion they should have won more and be competing on the same level as the Dodgers year over year. The Dodgers outclass them by a lot and frankly, I don't think the baby bears are anywhere near a dynasty or all that scary of team in general. We've outplayed them two years running including a division title on their ground. The only reason a Cubs fan comes on a Brewers board is fear.