2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion

[MrTPlush]

The Cubs dynasty is all but dead. They have a few more years of their studs and will either have to pay them big bucks thus not being able to afford pitching or sacrifice some of them to buy pitching. It’s an impending disaster with not much in the farm and depending on a huge payroll/old vets to keep you afloat.

 

They may continue to be a threat occasionally to the NL Central if they really want to sustain a massive $200mil+ payroll, but I don’t think they are going to dominate yearly any time soon again. It should be interesting to see what they do in the upcoming years.

[Jopal78]

The Cubs dynasty is all but dead. They have a few more years of their studs and will either have to pay them big bucks thus not being able to afford pitching or sacrifice some of them to buy pitching. It’s an impending disaster with not much in the farm and depending on a huge payroll/old vets to keep you afloat.

 

They may continue to be a threat occasionally to the NL Central if they really want to sustain a massive $200mil+ payroll, but I don’t think they are going to dominate yearly any time soon again.

 

I wouldn’t say the dynasty is dead because if they get in it will be the 5th straight year they’ve qualified for the post season. However, we can say the success cycle is hard. There are fewer Kris Bryant’s and Javier Baez’s available when your picking 25th overall. A common failure to draft and develop starting pitching leaves them with a 100 million dollar rotation that has been up and down all year long

[jjfanec]

The Cubs dynasty is all but dead. They have a few more years of their studs and will either have to pay them big bucks thus not being able to afford pitching or sacrifice some of them to buy pitching. It’s an impending disaster with not much in the farm and depending on a huge payroll/old vets to keep you afloat.

 

They may continue to be a threat occasionally to the NL Central if they really want to sustain a massive $200mil+ payroll, but I don’t think they are going to dominate yearly any time soon again.

 

I wouldn’t say the dynasty is dead because if they get in it will be the 5th straight year they’ve qualified for the post season. However, we can say the success cycle is hard. There are fewer Kris Bryant’s and Javier Baez’s available when your picking 25th overall. A common failure to draft and develop starting pitching leaves them with a 100 million dollar rotation that has been up and down all year long

 

The Cubs feel a little like the Packers after the 2011 Super Bowl win. It felt like more were to come. They didnt fall apart but teams caught up to them and they havent won since.

[jjfanec]

What do we feel like the Brewers need to go over the last 17 to get in? Would this be enough?

1 vs Marlins - 1-0

3 vs Cards - 1-2

4 vs Padres - 3-1

3 vs Pirates - 2-1

3 vs Reds - 2-1

3 vs Rockies - 2-1

 

For an 11-6 record.

[Fear The Chorizo]

The Cubs dynasty is all but dead. They have a few more years of their studs and will either have to pay them big bucks thus not being able to afford pitching or sacrifice some of them to buy pitching. It’s an impending disaster with not much in the farm and depending on a huge payroll/old vets to keep you afloat.

 

They may continue to be a threat occasionally to the NL Central if they really want to sustain a massive $200mil+ payroll, but I don’t think they are going to dominate yearly any time soon again. It should be interesting to see what they do in the upcoming years.

 

I would never call what they've accomplished over the past 5 seasons a dynasty - 1 WS title, 2 NLCS appearances, and a wildcard game exit sprinkled in with 2 division titles. That's a really good stretch for most any organization, but it's not a dynasty.

 

Let's not kid ourselves, they still have alot of talent on their MLB roster and will continue to do so for a few more seasons, and I'm sure they'll find ways to continue bringing in more in the future. The Cubs still have the advantage to try and buy themselves out of problems. However, moves they've made starting at the 2016 trade deadline in effort to "go for it" have severely depleted position player talent in their farm system, and their pitching is an organizational wasteland behind a group of expensive veteran starters who are really starting to look long in the tooth.

 

Following their WS win, the Cubs really did have a chance to put together a dynastic run, but it hasn't happened due to prospect quality/depth vanishing due to trades, most of their young homegrown position players they retained not becoming yearly silver slugger finalists while they made peanuts, and the expensive pitching acquisitions not being healthy enough and/or good enough to churn out 100-win seasons at will.

[A Swing and A Drive]

What do we feel like the Brewers need to go over the last 17 to get in? Would this be enough?

1 vs Marlins - 1-0

3 vs Cards - 1-2

4 vs Padres - 3-1

3 vs Pirates - 2-1

3 vs Reds - 2-1

3 vs Rockies - 2-1

 

For an 11-6 record.

 

Yes, they need to still win every series and they would be in great shape. If they either finish the sweep of the Marlins or win the series vs Padres instead of a split, they could probably afford to even drop 2 of the Cardinals series.

[jjfanec]

What do we feel like the Brewers need to go over the last 17 to get in? Would this be enough?

1 vs Marlins - 1-0

3 vs Cards - 1-2

4 vs Padres - 3-1

3 vs Pirates - 2-1

3 vs Reds - 2-1

3 vs Rockies - 2-1

 

For an 11-6 record.

 

Yes, they need to still win every series and they would be in great shape. If they either finish the sweep of the Marlins or win the series vs Padres instead of a split, they could probably afford to even drop 2 of the Cardinals series.

 

11-6 feels safe to me to at least tie with the Cubs or anyone else. Other teams are at least 2 games back so that would mean they would need to go 13-4. That is tough. The Cubs have a favorable schedule outside the Cards. If they go 4-3 vs the cards the would need to go 7-3 in their 10 vs Padres (1), Pirates (6), and Reds (3). That seems doable. But if they go 3-4, 11-6 becomes harder.

 

Go 12-5 and I think we are in. 12-5 means beating the Marlins today, then either one series sweep or taking 2 from the Cards.

[tmwiese55]

Can't believe in the span of one week since the Thursday night beatdown to the Cubs how drastically things have changed. Just shows how crazy baseball is and why the NBA 8 seed analogy is just so embarrassingly wrong. Sure, none of us are predicting they'll win it all or even beat LAD. But it's the nature of baseball when even the best of the best teams lose over 40% of their games and the most common outcome is only winning 2/3 when the best team plays the worst team.

[KeithStone53151]

4 back on Cardinals

3.5 back on Nationals

2nd WC tie currently

 

Things could get real interest if we win 3/4 through this weekend and the Cards go 1/4. We also still have a sneaky chance at the 1st WC too.

 

We have more than a sneaky chance at it, primarily because take a look at the Nationals schedule. Braves, Cardinals, Phillies, Marlins, Indians...and still one more against the Twins. Yeah they'll probably smash the Marlins but every other team is a legit contender.

[homer]

The Cubs dynasty is all but dead. They have a few more years of their studs and will either have to pay them big bucks thus not being able to afford pitching or sacrifice some of them to buy pitching. It’s an impending disaster with not much in the farm and depending on a huge payroll/old vets to keep you afloat.

 

They may continue to be a threat occasionally to the NL Central if they really want to sustain a massive $200mil+ payroll, but I don’t think they are going to dominate yearly any time soon again.

 

I wouldn’t say the dynasty is dead because if they get in it will be the 5th straight year they’ve qualified for the post season. However, we can say the success cycle is hard. There are fewer Kris Bryant’s and Javier Baez’s available when your picking 25th overall. A common failure to draft and develop starting pitching leaves them with a 100 million dollar rotation that has been up and down all year long

 

I think they've spent like $38 million on the bullpen too.

[KeithStone53151]

What do we feel like the Brewers need to go over the last 17 to get in? Would this be enough?

1 vs Marlins - 1-0

3 vs Cards - 1-2

4 vs Padres - 3-1

3 vs Pirates - 2-1

3 vs Reds - 2-1

3 vs Rockies - 2-1

 

For an 11-6 record.

 

Yes, they need to still win every series and they would be in great shape. If they either finish the sweep of the Marlins or win the series vs Padres instead of a split, they could probably afford to even drop 2 of the Cardinals series.

 

Call me greedy, but the Cardinals aren't hitting right now against really bad pitching in Colorado. I'm a bit more hopeful that we can take it to the Cardinals after this tune-up series.

[KeithStone53151]

I wouldn’t say the dynasty is dead because if they get in it will be the 5th straight year they’ve qualified for the post season. However, we can say the success cycle is hard. There are fewer Kris Bryant’s and Javier Baez’s available when your picking 25th overall. A common failure to draft and develop starting pitching leaves them with a 100 million dollar rotation that has been up and down all year long

 

I think they've spent like $38 million on the bullpen too.

 

I believe you're describing Tyler Chatwood...you left out all the other mediocre pitchers on $8m/year deals.

 

Stuff like this is honestly why it blows me away when people say Theo is such a good GM. He got insanely lucky with Arrieta and a couple very high draft picks, and then blew all his prospect capital going for it for a couple years. The Cubs are probably looking at a couple more years of mediocrity before they bust up their core and go into rebuild mode for a few years. How often do teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, etc...the highest payroll teams...need to go into total rebuild? Answer...5-6 years after Theo comes to town. No other GM leaves such catastrophic messes in his wake.

[adambr2]

I've always said Theo is an enormously overrated GM. Yeah he finds a nut every once in awhile with someone like Hamels, but every GM is going to given enough chances and almost unlimited capital. Somehow even with all that capital he manages to put out a garbage bullpen almost every year.

 

He has given out an absurd number of bad contracts and dismantled what could have really been a dynasty type situation for the Cubs the last 3 or 4 years. He is very fortunate that the Cubs won it all in 2016 under his watch or recent history would not be nearly so forgiving on him.

[tmwiese55]

I've always said Theo is an enormously overrated GM. Yeah he finds a nut every once in awhile with someone like Hamels, but every GM is going to given enough chances and almost unlimited capital. Somehow even with all that capital he manages to put out a garbage bullpen almost every year.

 

He has given out an absurd number of bad contracts and dismantled what could have really been a dynasty type situation for the Cubs the last 3 or 4 years. He is very fortunate that the Cubs won it all in 2016 under his watch or recent history would not be nearly so forgiving on him.

 

In the Cubs situation just getting the 1 title makes it all worth it. so by no means trying to belittle him as that's all they cared about was getting the 1. But I've generally thought this for a while now, that they went from a potential dynasty type run to a short window due to those trades. It's not like they're going to be bad anytime soon but they're now going to be kind of scrambling each year. Plus, as you said what if that game 7 goes another way after they blew it late? How this would all be remembered differently at this point if they didn't recover from that blown save and find a way to win.

[pacopete4]

We all have no idea how it would have turned out had they not cleared out every resource that they have and I am sure the pressure of getting a WS win was immense but you do have to wonder if it was their best move. No real way to tell but I hope we shrink their window again this year by knocking them out.

[sveumrules]

+10 win differential.

[pacopete4]

Epstein frustrated with Cubs: We put Brewers back in wild-card race

 

If there's nothing else that comes from this season it is that we have fully entered the minds of that front office and put them on full tilt. Nothing would be better than sending them home early this year and shrinking their window once again.

[IIAY]

No doubt - these next few weeks are huge. And, now that we are into August, the light at the end of this 2019 tunnel is becoming clearer. Here's how I think this thing needs to play out for the Brewers (knowing full well of course that nothing ever seems to go according to plan):

 

Tex: win 2/3 (won 2/3)

Min: win 1/2 (won 1/2)

@Was: win 2/3 (won 1/3)

@Stl: win 1/3 (won 1/3)

Ari: win 2/3 (won 2/3)

Stl: win 2/3 (won 1/3)

@Chc: win 1/3 (won 2/3)

Hou: win 1/2 (won 1/2)

Chc: win 2/4 (won 3/4)

@Mia: win 3/4 (won 4/4)

@Stl: win 2/3

SD: win 2/4

Pit: win 2/3

@Cin: win 2/3

@Col: win 2/3

 

To me, these expectations seem a bit lofty - especially given the current state of our pitching staff. And, this would still only leave us at 87 wins. Is that enough to hunt down the Cubs? Or, are we probably more likely to be going for a WC spot with this scenario? We'd have to hope that the Cubs go 25-23 down the stretch if we were to force a game 163 with them again this year, or 24-24 to beat them outright. Boy, that seems like it is a tough "ask," doesn't it? My guess is that the Cubs end up winning 90 games and taking the division by 3-4 games, when all is said and done. If we can get to 87 though, I'd have to think we'd at least be in a fight for one of the two WC spots.

 

Madtownhawk hasn't updated his August 8 vision in a while so I thought I would give him some props. He has been pretty close so far (the Brewers actually have one more win than the path he identified). It has helped that 2 of the extra wins were against the Cubs who we are chasing for the 2nd wild card. Looking ahead, his view of 10-6 in the last 16 seems pretty realistic (though it might be 1/3 vs. STL and 3/4 vs. SD). However, like many of us, he didn't anticipate the Cardinals playing out of their minds the past month to make our chase of the Cubs for the WC instead of the division title.

[bucks2281]

Epstein frustrated with Cubs: We put Brewers back in wild-card race

 

If there's nothing else that comes from this season it is that we have fully entered the minds of that front office and put them on full tilt. Nothing would be better than sending them home early this year and shrinking their window once again.

 

Theo is not happy ... based on his quote, there’s no way that Maddon returns.

[wallus]

Epstein frustrated with Cubs: We put Brewers back in wild-card race

 

If there's nothing else that comes from this season it is that we have fully entered the minds of that front office and put them on full tilt. Nothing would be better than sending them home early this year and shrinking their window once again.

 

That is pretty darn candid, wow.

[MrTPlush]

Nationals only hold a 2.5 game lead over the Brewers these days. Nationals quickly getting themselves into a sticky situation.

 

WC race is currently down to the Nationals, Cubs, Brewers, Mets, and Phillies.

 

The D Backs are simply out of it. They trail 5 games to the Cubs and 4 to the Brewers. That doesn’t even include two other teams ahead of them. The Phillies are also getting into a dangerous territory now 3.5 back on the Cubs and 2.5 back on the Brewers. Simply getting too late in the year to start trailing too many games to multiple teams.

[Ennder]

I'm a big stats guy in general and I have to say that run differential is very low on the ranking of meaningful stats. One team leaving their bad RPs out to dry to give up 15 runs does not change how good a team is in important games. This is one of those stats that skews meaningless more than meaningful. I mean if you have like a -100 and you are 10 games over that is fishy, but it isn't a metric that you can use to really compare teams.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Beat the cards tomorrow, and the division and both wild card berths are very much in play considering remaining schedules of the brewers and their competition.

[Brew crew 92]

I'm a big stats guy in general and I have to say that run differential is very low on the ranking of meaningful stats. One team leaving their bad RPs out to dry to give up 15 runs does not change how good a team is in important games. This is one of those stats that skews meaningless more than meaningful. I mean if you have like a -100 and you are 10 games over that is fishy, but it isn't a metric that you can use to really compare teams.

 

Agree.

Case in point > Friday’s game vs Cards, 4-0 cards lead, CC wants to save his good pitchers, so he pitches Faria and Nelson > this team’s mop up pitchers, and they give up 6 runs. In a real game they don’t pitch. This happens a lot thru out the year. Teams with better depth in their pen than us, “better mop up arms” save meaningless runs.

 

Then we have teams like us this year that hover around .500 with a negative 30 RD, then get hot in September, win a lot of close games, and shoot the RD to heck. Just like all stats > can be Skewed. Analytics with common sense and a good set of eyes is where it’s at.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I got in a Twitter argument a few days ago with someone who was trying to convince me that the Brewers were a terrible team based solely on run differential. Run differential truthers are the worst.