2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion

[Jopal78]

The division is definitely out. Even if you somehow sweep the Cardinals, which is unlikely in itself, you've still got 4 other games to make up just to tie...it's just not happening.

 

Catching the Nationals is equally unlikely.

 

So the only realistic target is WC2. You have to, bare minimum, take 3 out of 4 against the Cubs this weekend. You lose, you're done. You split, you're done. There's just too much ground to be made up and too many teams you're chasing to keep treading water. You've got to win the Cubs' series to even keep things interesting after.

 

What you say makes perfect sense. But, even if we lose 3 of 4 to the Cubbies, it’s not over.

 

If we lose 3 out of 4 to the Cubs it is definitely over. At that point you're 6 back (assuming we neither gain nor lose ground today which is a generous assumption given the matchups) with 20 to play.

 

So then even if the Cubs stumble and finish like 10-10, which is unlikely, you're still needing to go 16-4 just to even tie. And that's assuming none of the other teams we are chasing get hot, we have several teams between us and the Cubs. That's just not happening. Just because something is mathematically possible doesn't make it realistic. It's Cubs series or bust.

 

Its already over. The math says its possible, but reality says they're already playing out the string.

 

If the Nationals go 13-13 over their final 26 they'd wind up at 90 wins. Brewers would need to go 20-5 to tie them.

If the Cubs go just 13-12 over their final 25 they'd wind up at 87 wins. Brewers would need to go 17-8 to tie them.

 

For a team that has played under .500 baseball across their last 89 games; expecting some kind of run at this point is the stuff of miracles.

 

 

It is worth noting: for a team whose pitching staff has allowed more runs than all but 2 NL clubs while the offense has scored fewer runs than all but 5 NL teams, it is an achievement the team isn't at the bottom of the league in the standings. They have a chance to finish with a winning record this year, which would be three consecutive seasons with a winning record. That hasn't happened since Reagan was president.

[Madhawk23]

No doubt - these next few weeks are huge. And, now that we are into August, the light at the end of this 2019 tunnel is becoming clearer. Here's how I think this thing needs to play out for the Brewers (knowing full well of course that nothing ever seems to go according to plan):

 

Tex: win 2/3

Min: win 1/2

@Was: win 2/3 (Scherzer is out, and maybe we can avoid one of Corbin/Strasburg in this series?)

@Stl: win 1/3 (if we lose 2/3 in Wsh, then we need to win 2/3 here for a .500 trip)

Ari: win 2/3

Stl: win 2/3

@Chc: win 1/3

Hou: win 1/2

Chc: win 2/4

@Mia: win 3/4

@Stl: win 2/3

SD: win 2/4

Pit: win 2/3

@Cin: win 2/3

@Col: win 2/3

 

To me, these expectations seem a bit lofty - especially given the current state of our pitching staff. And, this would still only leave us at 87 wins. Is that enough to hunt down the Cubs? Or, are we probably more likely to be going for a WC spot with this scenario? We'd have to hope that the Cubs go 25-23 down the stretch if we were to force a game 163 with them again this year, or 24-24 to beat them outright. Boy, that seems like it is a tough "ask," doesn't it? My guess is that the Cubs end up winning 90 games and taking the division by 3-4 games, when all is said and done. If we can get to 87 though, I'd have to think we'd at least be in a fight for one of the two WC spots.

 

Just for fun, I thought I would revisit this projection today - now that we are about 1/2 way through it. I thought when I looked back on this today that we would be way off my projection at this point - but to my surprise, we are only a game behind - through the Cubs series that wrapped up on Sunday. Now, we are going to need to win tonight in game 2 vs the Astros to remain a game behind (I had us splitting this series, and we've obviously lost the first game already). If (and I know it's a HUGE "if") we can win tonight, and then somehow find a way to take 3/4 from the Cubs this weekend (that's almost a "must have" situation), then we'll somehow be back in line with my projection towards 87 wins. Unfortunately though - I had us then winning every series from the final Cubs series forward, and it's really hard to envision this team accomplishing such a feat at this stage, the way they continue to play (not to mention all of the injuries that have mounted now).

[JosephC]

The last 20 games of the schedule SHOULD be ridiculously easy, setting up the Brewers to go on a possible late season run like they did last year. However, the Brewers had one stretch like this from June 14-July 14, and they played poorly during that stretch (could argue that it was longer as there were several games prior to this stretch that included the Pirates, but at the time the Pirates looked like they might be a respectable club). This is the main reason to still have some hope, if they start playing decent ball over those last three weeks, the opposition is such where they could have a pretty good 20 game run. It's just a matter if they are good enough, and while the pitching has been better than the hitting over the last couple of weeks, I still question if this team has enough pitching to put up a 15-5 run, even against bad competition.

[KeithStone53151]

The injuries for me are the biggest issue. The schedule really softens, 17-8 isn't THAT crazy. After today, we have 2 tough series and 5 less tough series. I'll agree with everyone that we need a good showing against the Cubs. Need 2 wins minimum, 3 would obviously be better as we'd be 1-3 games back depending on the outcomes today. Obviously tougher to beat the cubs with a couple top players out, especially hiura against all that LHP.

[Brew crew 92]

The injuries for me are the biggest issue. The schedule really softens, 17-8 isn't THAT crazy. After today, we have 2 tough series and 5 less tough series. I'll agree with everyone that we need a good showing against the Cubs. Need 2 wins minimum, 3 would obviously be better as we'd be 1-3 games back depending on the outcomes today. Obviously tougher to beat the cubs with a couple top players out, especially hiura against all that LHP.

 

Agree it’s going to tougher with The injuries, especially Hiura vs LHP. But this team and especially Counsell, has an air of confidence about September baseball that’s hard to quantify. 12 real options out of the pen doesn’t hurt, Yelich heating up, and an offense that should at least get warmer if not hot, can go a long way to generating a big winning streak. I’m expecting at least 18-7 and that includes losing tonight.

[Fear The Chorizo]

The last 20 games of the schedule SHOULD be ridiculously easy, setting up the Brewers to go on a possible late season run like they did last year. However, the Brewers had one stretch like this from June 14-July 14, and they played poorly during that stretch (could argue that it was longer as there were several games prior to this stretch that included the Pirates, but at the time the Pirates looked like they might be a respectable club). This is the main reason to still have some hope, if they start playing decent ball over those last three weeks, the opposition is such where they could have a pretty good 20 game run. It's just a matter if they are good enough, and while the pitching has been better than the hitting over the last couple of weeks, I still question if this team has enough pitching to put up a 15-5 run, even against bad competition.

 

That's the problem with this year's club - I just don't see them being solid enough to go on a run like that against anyone. We all spent the first two months of this year acting somewhat impressed with them hovering 10-12 games over 0.500 despite playing a tough early slate of games, and looking forward to getting on a big roll in June headed to the all star break. They then proceeded to play 0.500 ball during a super easy slate of games and went backwards after the AS Break.

 

Fact is despite their 7-1 start out of the gates, this team is basically a 0.500 level club that may finish 10 games over or 10 games under 0.500 if they replay the season 50 times. I think their talent level on paper was better than that when spring training started but injuries hampered their pitching staff and a combination of injuries and key position players having terrible offensive years have limited their roster's ability to pick up the slack. That 7-1 start even included a few late inning comebacks or improbable victories that could easily have been losses.

[adambr2]

The absolute best, cherry picked 20 game stretch for us this season was 14-6. It will take at least that, and that's assuming a win in the Cubs' series.

[Pugger]

I suppose as long as we are mathematically in the running for that 2nd WC spot we might as well go for it. I do think 2020 might be a better year for us.

[Jopal78]

The injuries for me are the biggest issue. The schedule really softens, 17-8 isn't THAT crazy. After today, we have 2 tough series and 5 less tough series. I'll agree with everyone that we need a good showing against the Cubs. Need 2 wins minimum, 3 would obviously be better as we'd be 1-3 games back depending on the outcomes today. Obviously tougher to beat the cubs with a couple top players out, especially hiura against all that LHP.

 

But isn't it the bad/losing teams that have given the Brewers problems this year?

 

1-2 v. Miami (48-88)

1-2 v. Seattle (58-81)

0-3 v. LA Angels (65-73)

0-3 v. Padres (64-73)

 

Had they merely split those games against bottom of the barrel teams, they'd be in position for the wild card right now with a legit shot at the division. Accordingly, to suggest that they have a run in them yet this year because they play some weaker clubs ignores the facts. Outside of Pittsburgh they haven't played well against losing teams.

[Brew crew 92]

The injuries for me are the biggest issue. The schedule really softens, 17-8 isn't THAT crazy. After today, we have 2 tough series and 5 less tough series. I'll agree with everyone that we need a good showing against the Cubs. Need 2 wins minimum, 3 would obviously be better as we'd be 1-3 games back depending on the outcomes today. Obviously tougher to beat the cubs with a couple top players out, especially hiura against all that LHP.

 

But isn't it the bad/losing teams that have given the Brewers problems this year?

 

1-2 v. Miami (48-88)

1-2 v. Seattle (58-81)

0-3 v. LA Angels (65-73)

0-3 v. Padres (64-73)

 

Had they merely split those games against bottom of the barrel teams, they'd be in position for the wild card right now with a legit shot at the division. Accordingly, to suggest that they have a run in them yet this year because they play some weaker clubs ignores the facts. Outside of Pittsburgh they haven't played well against losing teams.

 

What happened in the past doesn’t matter in baseball. This is a different team than what we had even a week ago, a better team, especially their pitching, and I would argue that you were ignoring that most important fact.

[Fear The Chorizo]

The injuries for me are the biggest issue. The schedule really softens, 17-8 isn't THAT crazy. After today, we have 2 tough series and 5 less tough series. I'll agree with everyone that we need a good showing against the Cubs. Need 2 wins minimum, 3 would obviously be better as we'd be 1-3 games back depending on the outcomes today. Obviously tougher to beat the cubs with a couple top players out, especially hiura against all that LHP.

 

But isn't it the bad/losing teams that have given the Brewers problems this year?

 

1-2 v. Miami (48-88)

1-2 v. Seattle (58-81)

0-3 v. LA Angels (65-73)

0-3 v. Padres (64-73)

 

Had they merely split those games against bottom of the barrel teams, they'd be in position for the wild card right now with a legit shot at the division. Accordingly, to suggest that they have a run in them yet this year because they play some weaker clubs ignores the facts. Outside of Pittsburgh they haven't played well against losing teams.

 

What happened in the past doesn’t matter in baseball. This is a different team than what we had even a week ago, a better team, especially their pitching, and I would argue that you were ignoring that most important fact.

 

The 2019 Brewers have a team ERA of 4.63 over the entire season. Over the last 7 games, their team ERA is 4.00 (includes 2 shutouts but also the 12 run blowup against the Cards 7 games ago - now over a half run of pitching improvement is significant even though it's a small sample size. Problem with this roster is that during the same stretch, the Brewers are dead last across MLB in terms of runs scored, so the pitching improvement hasn't dramatically shifted this team from winning 6 of 7...they are actually 3-4 because they aren't scoring enough.

[adambr2]

The injuries for me are the biggest issue. The schedule really softens, 17-8 isn't THAT crazy. After today, we have 2 tough series and 5 less tough series. I'll agree with everyone that we need a good showing against the Cubs. Need 2 wins minimum, 3 would obviously be better as we'd be 1-3 games back depending on the outcomes today. Obviously tougher to beat the cubs with a couple top players out, especially hiura against all that LHP.

 

But isn't it the bad/losing teams that have given the Brewers problems this year?

 

1-2 v. Miami (48-88)

1-2 v. Seattle (58-81)

0-3 v. LA Angels (65-73)

0-3 v. Padres (64-73)

 

Had they merely split those games against bottom of the barrel teams, they'd be in position for the wild card right now with a legit shot at the division. Accordingly, to suggest that they have a run in them yet this year because they play some weaker clubs ignores the facts. Outside of Pittsburgh they haven't played well against losing teams.

 

What happened in the past doesn’t matter in baseball. This is a different team than what we had even a week ago, a better team, especially their pitching, and I would argue that you were ignoring that most important fact.

 

I would argue that you consistently ignore the fact that other teams improve too. The Cubs have Wilson Contretas returning from the IL, for instance, and you're still counting on a soft tossing lefty returning from TJ and a guy who hasn't pitched effectively in 2 years to be big enough needle movers to overcome a 4 game gap. It just doesn't normally work like that.

[KeithStone53151]

If the Brewers make a run over the next month, it will be the offense beating down other teams while the pitching keeps us in it. That's been the formula for success for this team since we spent all that capital on Moose/Grandal. Right now, we are weirdly pitching better than we are hitting. I suppose part of that is injuries. I'll generally agree with brewcrew92 that our September callups probably give us more of an advantage than most teams. That said, the amount of value you attribute to those additions is far more than they are worth. It's not like we're going to start putting up all zeroes because Suter/Nelson are back. Also those guys won't be heavily involved in scoring...which is how we're going to win games.

[KeithStone53151]

The injuries for me are the biggest issue. The schedule really softens, 17-8 isn't THAT crazy. After today, we have 2 tough series and 5 less tough series. I'll agree with everyone that we need a good showing against the Cubs. Need 2 wins minimum, 3 would obviously be better as we'd be 1-3 games back depending on the outcomes today. Obviously tougher to beat the cubs with a couple top players out, especially hiura against all that LHP.

 

But isn't it the bad/losing teams that have given the Brewers problems this year?

 

1-2 v. Miami (48-88)

1-2 v. Seattle (58-81)

0-3 v. LA Angels (65-73)

0-3 v. Padres (64-73)

 

Had they merely split those games against bottom of the barrel teams, they'd be in position for the wild card right now with a legit shot at the division. Accordingly, to suggest that they have a run in them yet this year because they play some weaker clubs ignores the facts. Outside of Pittsburgh they haven't played well against losing teams.

 

I see your point, maybe they will give us fits. But it will definitely be an easier task taking 3 of 4 from one of those teams than the Nationals or Cardinals or Braves or Dodgers. The odds are certainly not in our favor, we need to hope we can take care of business against these bad teams to have a chance.

[Brew crew 92]

The last 20 games of the schedule SHOULD be ridiculously easy, setting up the Brewers to go on a possible late season run like they did last year. However, the Brewers had one stretch like this from June 14-July 14, and they played poorly during that stretch (could argue that it was longer as there were several games prior to this stretch that included the Pirates, but at the time the Pirates looked like they might be a respectable club). This is the main reason to still have some hope, if they start playing decent ball over those last three weeks, the opposition is such where they could have a pretty good 20 game run. It's just a matter if they are good enough, and while the pitching has been better than the hitting over the last couple of weeks, I still question if this team has enough pitching to put up a 15-5 run, even against bad competition.

 

I’m kinda surprised that you still think the crew might not have enough pitching to get a good run going. Now the offense is another matter.

[bm1090]

The last 20 games of the schedule SHOULD be ridiculously easy, setting up the Brewers to go on a possible late season run like they did last year. However, the Brewers had one stretch like this from June 14-July 14, and they played poorly during that stretch (could argue that it was longer as there were several games prior to this stretch that included the Pirates, but at the time the Pirates looked like they might be a respectable club). This is the main reason to still have some hope, if they start playing decent ball over those last three weeks, the opposition is such where they could have a pretty good 20 game run. It's just a matter if they are good enough, and while the pitching has been better than the hitting over the last couple of weeks, I still question if this team has enough pitching to put up a 15-5 run, even against bad competition.

 

I’m kinda surprised that you still think the crew might not have enough pitching to get a good run going. Now the offense is another matter.

 

What? We are 13th in pitching in the NL. We've hit a nice little run here the past 4 games and it's been great, but we've been terrible all year. Including in August.

 

We're 10th in offense, I believe. So not much better.

[Brew crew 92]

The last 20 games of the schedule SHOULD be ridiculously easy, setting up the Brewers to go on a possible late season run like they did last year. However, the Brewers had one stretch like this from June 14-July 14, and they played poorly during that stretch (could argue that it was longer as there were several games prior to this stretch that included the Pirates, but at the time the Pirates looked like they might be a respectable club). This is the main reason to still have some hope, if they start playing decent ball over those last three weeks, the opposition is such where they could have a pretty good 20 game run. It's just a matter if they are good enough, and while the pitching has been better than the hitting over the last couple of weeks, I still question if this team has enough pitching to put up a 15-5 run, even against bad competition.

 

I’m kinda surprised that you still think the crew might not have enough pitching to get a good run going. Now the offense is another matter.

 

What? We are 13th in pitching in the NL. We've hit a nice little run here the past 4 games and it's been great, but we've been terrible all year. Including in August.

 

We're 10th in offense, I believe. So not much better.

 

Can we please stop with the pitching stats for the year. That’s another pitching staff. Just watch with the eyes at the action on the field, then go ahead and tell me that we have the 3rd worst staff in the NL.

[tmwiese55]

Can we please stop putting too much stock into small samples and sweeping judgments and overreactions on a game by game basis.

[bm1090]

Can we please stop with the pitching stats for the year. That’s another pitching staff. Just watch with the eyes at the action on the field, then go ahead and tell me that we have the 3rd worst staff in the NL.

 

Lyles and Houser have been good. Our bullpen has stabilized. But 3/5 of our starters have been a mess. Our pitching in August was bad. Not sure what I'm supposed to be seeing.

[xisxisxis]

Can we please stop putting too much stock into small samples and sweeping judgments and overreactions on a game by game by basis.

So you want Brew Crew 92 to stop posting?

[tmwiese55]

Can we please stop with the pitching stats for the year. That’s another pitching staff. Just watch with the eyes at the action on the field, then go ahead and tell me that we have the 3rd worst staff in the NL.

 

Lyles and Houser have been good. Our bullpen has stabilized. But 3/5 of our starters have been a mess. Our pitching in August was bad. Not sure what I'm supposed to be seeing.

 

I just looked and our pitching in August gave up the highest OPS it has all year.

[KeithStone53151]

You all know we're almost certainly getting 2 of 4 this weekend, right? Primarily because it's by far the most obnoxious number. 3-4 wins clearly puts us back in the 2nd wildcard race. 0-1 wins clearly puts us out of it, we'd pretty much have to win out at that point. 2 wins leaves us 4 back with 20 to play. It's sorta kinda in contention...definitely an annoying spot to be.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Can we please stop putting too much stock into small samples and sweeping judgments and overreactions on a game by game basis.

 

Guy's gotta get his posts in while he can before the next pitching staff blowup dampens the September callup narrative that he's been parroting for the past 3 months falls apart.

[Madhawk23]

You all know we're almost certainly getting 2 of 4 this weekend, right? Primarily because it's by far the most obnoxious number. 3-4 wins clearly puts us back in the 2nd wildcard race. 0-1 wins clearly puts us out of it, we'd pretty much have to win out at that point. 2 wins leaves us 4 back with 20 to play. It's sorta kinda in contention...definitely an annoying spot to be.

 

And, this is my biggest concern. As much as I hate the Cubs - and want to see us win as many games as possible from them, I'd almost rather see us lose 3/4 this weekend than to split this series. Splitting this series will do nothing for us. Yes, we'll have a very small percentage of hope remaining, but I just don't see any way we are going to make up 4 games with 20 games to play, especially when none of those remaining games are against the Cubs. As others have already noted - our season basically comes down to these 4 games this weekend. Need to win 3/4 to keep hope alive. Anything less than that, and you can stick a fork in this season.

[Brew crew 92]

Can we please stop with the pitching stats for the year. That’s another pitching staff. Just watch with the eyes at the action on the field, then go ahead and tell me that we have the 3rd worst staff in the NL.

 

Lyles and Houser have been good. Our bullpen has stabilized. But 3/5 of our starters have been a mess. Our pitching in August was bad. Not sure what I'm supposed to be seeing.

 

I just looked and our pitching in August gave up the highest OPS it has all year.

 

Probably a little skewed giving up 30 runs in 2 games vs Nats.