2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion

[KeithStone53151]

Wow, Woodruff to not throw another pitch until 2020. Is there something you know that Stearns doesn’t know?. Stearns just said Woody will be back, just not stretched out. Some you are seriously discounting the boost this bullpen will have soon from pitchers in AAA that are pitching lights out > Suter, or really well > Nelson Peralta. Guerra throwing his splitter is big, Hader with the slider, Pomeranz has looked really good. That’s 6 pen arms, imo, on the upswing not including Claudio Albers Jeffress Jackson. And I won’t be shocked to see burnes added next week either.

 

This is not the first 5 months bullpen.

 

You make a lot of good points about the reinforcements we have coming up, but when you say stuff like our staff can compete with Wash or NYM...you lose credibility. We don't have 1 pitcher that's better than the top 2 starters for the Mets. We have one injured pitcher...that would slot into their rotation if healthy, the other 4 wouldn't make their top 5. As a team, we can compete with those teams. But our staffs are not indisputably better. If we make the playoffs, it will be a team effort led primarily by an offensive breakout. Scoring 4+ runs every game and the pitching doing enough...for the most part.

[Brew crew 92]

Wow, Woodruff to not throw another pitch until 2020. Is there something you know that Stearns doesn’t know?. Stearns just said Woody will be back, just not stretched out. Some you are seriously discounting the boost this bullpen will have soon from pitchers in AAA that are pitching lights out > Suter, or really well > Nelson Peralta. Guerra throwing his splitter is big, Hader with the slider, Pomeranz has looked really good. That’s 6 pen arms, imo, on the upswing not including Claudio Albers Jeffress Jackson. And I won’t be shocked to see burnes added next week either.

 

This is not the first 5 months bullpen.

 

You make a lot of good points about the reinforcements we have coming up, but when you say stuff like our staff can compete with Wash or NYM...you lose credibility. We don't have 1 pitcher that's better than the top 2 starters for the Mets. We have one injured pitcher...that would slot into their rotation if healthy, the other 4 wouldn't make their top 5. As a team, we can compete with those teams. But our staffs are not indisputably better. If we make the playoffs, it will be a team effort led primarily by an offensive breakout. Scoring 4+ runs every game and the pitching doing enough...for the most part.

 

Mets and Nats rotation’s are superior to ours, but our September bullpen destroys either of theirs.

 

Nats are a better offense, but not the Mets. Mets have come back to earth.

[pacopete4]

Wow, Woodruff to not throw another pitch until 2020. Is there something you know that Stearns doesn’t know?

 

Literally no one insinuated that they did. Just that it might be wise to not press him to get back for this season. If the playoffs (which are already a long shot) aren't a realistic thing in a week or so, what is the point in bringing him back?

[tmwiese55]

Yea I've thought that since his date got bumped to mid August. If they're in it then I'm sure they'll find a way to use him. But if with 2 weeks to go they're say 5ish out of the WC they might just say call it a year and get ready for next year. I have no reason to believe they don't think he'll be ready, it's just more of an if the teams out of it type thing for me. I'd call that possibility significant at this point, probably below 50% but still.

[RollieTime]

Wow, Woodruff to not throw another pitch until 2020. Is there something you know that Stearns doesn’t know?

 

Literally no one insinuated that they did. Just that it might be wise to not press him to get back for this season. If the playoffs (which are already a long shot) aren't a realistic thing in a week or so, what is the point in bringing him back?

 

Thank you. I was implying that if we are 8 games back with 15 games to go, what do we gain by rushing him back? If we are one or two games back by then, yeah sure we can give it a shot. But if we continue to falter and need to rely on a 13-2 finish to end the year, what do we gain by having Woodruff pitch 2 or 3 times? Let him get healthy and lead the rotation heading into 2020 instead of risking him making an injury worse or overcompensating for that injury and causing a new issue to arise.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Wow, Woodruff to not throw another pitch until 2020. Is there something you know that Stearns doesn’t know?. Stearns just said Woody will be back, just not stretched out. Some you are seriously discounting the boost this bullpen will have soon from pitchers in AAA that are pitching lights out > Suter, or really well > Nelson Peralta. Guerra throwing his splitter is big, Hader with the slider, Pomeranz has looked really good. That’s 6 pen arms, imo, on the upswing not including Claudio Albers Jeffress Jackson. And I won’t be shocked to see burnes added next week either.

 

This is not the first 5 months bullpen.

 

On the upswing of what? Yay for going from a dumpster fire to a smoldering dumpster with more room to fit pitchers in the bullpen who couldn't perform well enough stay up in Milwaukee during earlier stints, I guess.

 

I really could care less what these guys are doing in San Antonio - it's not MLB. Banking on Suter suddenly becoming a 3 inning "relief ace" for 2-3 games a week is crazy no matter how good his #'s in limited action look against minor leaguers as he's rehabbing. Last year Burnes scuffled in CO Springs before being converted to a reliever and pitched great in that role. Woodruff jumped back and forth in 2018 before getting added to the pen in September and excelled down the stretch after it appeared he turned a corner. Knebel got healthy and was lights out for two months (likely helping what was left of his UCL give way pitching into late October, IMO). Lyles was a good roster addition for September. Peralta hardly pitched in September due to his innings limit and other starters regaining health to contribute. What's probably most important is that Hader 2019 isn't anywhere close to as dominant as he was last year. Bottom line - This isn't last year, and trying to relive September 2018 with this year's crop of arms is foolish even if names on the backs of jerseys are somewhat similar.

[brooks_quichenick]

-39 run differential, not looking great folks!

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

-39 run differential, not looking great folks!

 

Been crap all year ... yet here they are, still alive. Perhaps they shouldn't be, but they are.

[MrTPlush]

-39 run differential, not looking great folks!

 

The past means nothing, the future does. In baseball...a month, crapshoot.

[brooks_quichenick]

-39 run differential, not looking great folks!

 

The past means nothing, the future does. In baseball...a month, crapshoot.

 

I agree, but also run differential is fairly predictive in baseball, and only 4 teams have ever made the playoffs in the modern era with a negative run differential, and the lowest was -22. The eye test says this is not a good team, and the negative run differential confirms that. With that said, they could rattle off a bunch of big wins and in turn whittle that differential down, just doesn't seem very likely.

[HarveysWBs]

There have been some really bad teams that have done serious playoff damage, and even won titles. Some look at those teams and say “why?” (Looking at you, ‘06 Cardinals—a team that cost me a bet that may have also indirectly led to marrying my lovely wife, but that’s a story for another time). I look at those teams and say, “why not us?”

[brooks_quichenick]

There have been some really bad teams that have done serious playoff damage, and even won titles. Some look at those teams and say “why?” (Looking at you, ‘06 Cardinals—a team that cost me a bet that may have also indirectly led to marrying my lovely wife, but that’s a story for another time). I look at those teams and say, “why not us?”

 

That team wasn't great, but they were +19 in run differential. Not a playoff team most years, but the division was super weak that year overall. Once they got in they were obviously a different team, so you never know.

 

The 1987 Minnesota Twins are the only team with a negative differential (-20!) to win a World Series, so it has happened.

[BruisedCrew]

The 1987 Twins had that outrageous home field advantage because opponents were good for a lost fly ball or two in the Metrodome’s white roof every series.

 

They rode that home field advantage to titles in both 87 and 91.

 

If I’m remembering this right the Twins have been in 3 World Series, and won 2, but have never won a road game in the Series. It took Sandy Koufax to shut them out in Game 7 in 1965 when they played at the old Met.

[Oxy]

If your pitchers have the talent and get hot you can get into the playoffs and do damage there. That's true for most decent teams though. Rarely does everything come together like it did for the Brewers last year--and it still wasnt quite good enough.

[Brew crew 92]

The 1987 Twins had that outrageous home field advantage because opponents were good for a lost fly ball or two in the Metrodome’s white roof every series.

 

They rode that home field advantage to titles in both 87 and 91.

 

If I’m remembering this right the Twins have been in 3 World Series, and won 2, but have never won a road game in the Series. It took Sandy Koufax to shut them out in Game 7 in 1965 when they played at the old Met.

 

Yes, outrageous home field advantage. But more than the white roof, imo, was the noise. They measured the noise on the field periodically thru-out the series in the metro dome and it hit 130 decibels, comparable to standing next to a jet engine at take-off. It was so loud the players wore ear plugs. Now those are real homefield advantages.

[pitchleague]

There have been some really bad teams that have done serious playoff damage, and even won titles. Some look at those teams and say “why?” (Looking at you, ‘06 Cardinals—a team that cost me a bet that may have also indirectly led to marrying my lovely wife, but that’s a story for another time). I look at those teams and say, “why not us?”

 

 

I'll be anxiously waiting to hear this story in the Random Thoughts thread or the What's Not Bugging You thread.

[MrTPlush]

-39 run differential, not looking great folks!

 

The past means nothing, the future does. In baseball...a month, crapshoot.

 

I agree, but also run differential is fairly predictive in baseball, and only 4 teams have ever made the playoffs in the modern era with a negative run differential, and the lowest was -22. The eye test says this is not a good team, and the negative run differential confirms that. With that said, they could rattle off a bunch of big wins and in turn whittle that differential down, just doesn't seem very likely.

 

I agree it isn’t a good sign and this team is dismal, but the run differential only predict what they should have done (or about) in the past. The future may hold a entirely different run differential this a more promising record to match. Who knows, much like how our opponents will be playing when we face them. Tough opponents can be real easy if they are cold when you face them.

 

I don’t think this team is really any worse than the one that had a great May-ish timeframe. I don’t think they make the postseason and I don’t think it will even be close (5+ games out)...but really, randomness of baseball could prove to give different results.

 

It is somewhat predictive, but at the same time it is hard to even predict baseball.

[MrTPlush]

There have been some really bad teams that have done serious playoff damage, and even won titles. Some look at those teams and say “why?” (Looking at you, ‘06 Cardinals—a team that cost me a bet that may have also indirectly led to marrying my lovely wife, but that’s a story for another time). I look at those teams and say, “why not us?”

 

 

I'll be anxiously waiting to hear this story in the Random Thoughts thread or the What's Not Bugging You thread.

 

Depends on how long they have been married. May need the “what’s bugging me thread”.

[sveumrules]

Run differential is telling, but as we know run scoring is heavily dependent upon sequencing, which is somewhat out of the team's control, so sometimes referred to as "luck".

 

A team gets a walk, single, double & HR in an inning. How many runs did they score? Could be anywhere from one through four depending on the order in which the events happened.

 

What BaseRuns does is look at each individual outcome throughout a team's season to predict how many runs they "should" have scored/allowed given neutral sequencing.

 

By this method our "expected" Runs Scored per game is 5.09 vs 4.74 actual. Our "expected" Runs Allowed per game is 5.00 vs 5.04 actual. BaseRuns thinks we "should" have played to a 68-65 record so far, which is exactly what we've done.

[adambr2]

The Brewers will not be participating in the 2019 MLB playoffs. That should be plenty obvious by now.

[Brew crew 92]

The Brewers will not be participating in the 2019 MLB playoffs. That should be plenty obvious by now.

 

Probably to just about everyone, but not me. Not gonna be easy, but I think they will.

[Brew crew 92]

The Brewers will not be participating in the 2019 MLB playoffs. That should be plenty obvious by now.

 

Probably to just about everyone, but not me. Not gonna be easy, but I think they will.

 

I might be changing my mind, in light of Hiura’s injury, gonna wait to see what the brewers do, and how long Hiura’s gonna be out. Assuming Shaw Moose Spangenberg Perez > 3B/2B. Now if Yelich goes off.........

[adambr2]

The division is definitely out. Even if you somehow sweep the Cardinals, which is unlikely in itself, you've still got 4 other games to make up just to tie...it's just not happening.

 

Catching the Nationals is equally unlikely.

 

So the only realistic target is WC2. You have to, bare minimum, take 3 out of 4 against the Cubs this weekend. You lose, you're done. You split, you're done. There's just too much ground to be made up and too many teams you're chasing to keep treading water. You've got to win the Cubs' series to even keep things interesting after.

[Brew crew 92]

The division is definitely out. Even if you somehow sweep the Cardinals, which is unlikely in itself, you've still got 4 other games to make up just to tie...it's just not happening.

 

Catching the Nationals is equally unlikely.

 

So the only realistic target is WC2. You have to, bare minimum, take 3 out of 4 against the Cubs this weekend. You lose, you're done. You split, you're done. There's just too much ground to be made up and too many teams you're chasing to keep treading water. You've got to win the Cubs' series to even keep things interesting after.

 

What you say makes perfect sense. But, even if we lose 3 of 4 to the Cubbies, it’s not over. we’re a 8 game winning streak, and, or, winning 13 of 16 from going to the wire anyhow. But winning 3 of 4 would definitely make it an easier road. And winning tonight’s game would be a good start to this. Remember, we should have Hiura back for the last 2 weeks or so, and maybe Woodruff too.

[adambr2]

The division is definitely out. Even if you somehow sweep the Cardinals, which is unlikely in itself, you've still got 4 other games to make up just to tie...it's just not happening.

 

Catching the Nationals is equally unlikely.

 

So the only realistic target is WC2. You have to, bare minimum, take 3 out of 4 against the Cubs this weekend. You lose, you're done. You split, you're done. There's just too much ground to be made up and too many teams you're chasing to keep treading water. You've got to win the Cubs' series to even keep things interesting after.

 

What you say makes perfect sense. But, even if we lose 3 of 4 to the Cubbies, it’s not over.

 

If we lose 3 out of 4 to the Cubs it is definitely over. At that point you're 6 back (assuming we neither gain nor lose ground today which is a generous assumption given the matchups) with 20 to play.

 

So then even if the Cubs stumble and finish like 10-10, which is unlikely, you're still needing to go 16-4 just to even tie. And that's assuming none of the other teams we are chasing get hot, we have several teams between us and the Cubs. That's just not happening. Just because something is mathematically possible doesn't make it realistic. It's Cubs series or bust.