2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion

[Brewcrewin07]

That Derek Holland pitch was probably the most glorious thing since the postseason last year...just a real beautiful pitch.

 

I am really sick of people constantly talking about how the Cubs are better though. Heard it all last year and it gets preached even more to just assume we can't win the division. I don't really care what teams look like on paper. It is mid-August and we are a measly game back. Clearly they aren't that much better. The problem is there is no team in the central that is going to dominate and pull away...it is just incredibly unlikely. The only team that really has shown the ability to get on a big roll is the Cardinals and both times they did so it was followed up by big slumps.

 

Honestly I am expecting two teams to slightly pull away eventually when one team kinda flops at the end.

 

The Cards have had the good fortune of playing the Pirates 9 times since the All Star break..They are 19-12 since the ASB, that's pretty damn good, right?? Well..Not really...when you consider... 18 of their 19 wins since the ASB have come against the Pirates(8), Dbacks(2), Cincy(3), Cubs(2-at home), Royals(2). Not exactly beating great teams...their 12 losses have come against Pitt(1), Cincy(2), Cubs(1), Dbacks(1), Houston(2), Oak(2), Dodgers(3). So when they have actually played good teams, they have struggled too. Their winning streaks have been built on sweeping Pitts and beating the Royals, and sweeping Pitts and beating the Reds once and Houston once. NOT impressed at all. They are ONLY in contention of who they have played the 2nd half. It matters.

[Ennder]

I’m not counting out the reds from making the playoffs quite yet. They might run out of games before they get there, but if the season was 180 games, imo, they’d not only get there, but I believe would win the central. The reds are the best team in the central. Lineup’s the equal or better than most, defense is good, bullpen underrated, and their rotation the best in the central by far, maybe the NL.

 

Dick Williams, hands down, executive of the year. Hiring DJ, the trade with the dodgers, signing Jose Iglesias, getting Gray and now Bauer not just for their run this year but to really go for it next year as well. It Also should be very interesting as to their payroll next year since Bauer should be making ~ 20 million and their payroll is already higher than ours by 4 million, and their revenue is 15-20 mil. LESS than ours. Interesting isn’t it?

 

The Reds have played to about their 90th percentile stats as a team and are going to miss the playoffs by 5+ games. Not giving any sort of award to a team for that. The Bauer trade was probably a big loss for the Reds too. They aren't very likely to compete next year and after that they just threw away a high end prospect for nothing.

[Brew crew 92]

I’m not counting out the reds from making the playoffs quite yet. They might run out of games before they get there, but if the season was 180 games, imo, they’d not only get there, but I believe would win the central. The reds are the best team in the central. Lineup’s the equal or better than most, defense is good, bullpen underrated, and their rotation the best in the central by far, maybe the NL.

 

Dick Williams, hands down, executive of the year. Hiring DJ, the trade with the dodgers, signing Jose Iglesias, getting Gray and now Bauer not just for their run this year but to really go for it next year as well. It Also should be very interesting as to their payroll next year since Bauer should be making ~ 20 million and their payroll is already higher than ours by 4 million, and their revenue is 15-20 mil. LESS than ours. Interesting isn’t it?

 

The Reds have played to about their 90th percentile stats as a team and are going to miss the playoffs by 5+ games. Not giving any sort of award to a team for that. The Bauer trade was probably a big loss for the Reds too. They aren't very likely to compete next year and after that they just threw away a high end prospect for nothing.

 

Underperformed big time this year, maybe some of it their manager, they should be better next year, especially with their owner willing to up their payroll. They might have overpaid for Bauer, but have easily the best rotation in the division with him Castillo Gray Mahle Desclafani.

[stalton]

This year reminds me of the year the packers squeaked out a division win at 8-7-1. Just have to win the war of attrition. I think our 40 man roster will give us a big boost in September.

[benji]

Last night was such a frustrating night. Lose a

a game giving up 3 hits. Good news is Houser is looking a legit starter. He could be a good #3 for 2020. Who knows maybe better.

 

 

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[NYChez]

On August 29, 2018, the Brewers were coming off a 9-7 loss to the Reds and were in danger of falling 8 games back of the Cubs in the loss column before rallying for a 13-12, extra inning win in Cincinnati. Perhaps tonight’s 15-14, extra-inning win in DC can be a similar springboard.

[Fear The Chorizo]

On August 29, 2018, the Brewers were coming off a 9-7 loss to the Reds and were in danger of falling 8 games back of the Cubs in the loss column before rallying for a 13-12, extra inning win in Cincinnati. Perhaps tonight’s 15-14, extra-inning win in DC can be a similar springboard.

 

Unless the 2018 frosty boys show up to turn the bullpen into something more than a glaring weakness, the best they can hope for is to have the offense go on a crazy 6 week run and win the race to 88 wins to win this cluster of a division.

 

Regardless, this team is entertaining - both good and bad

[Madhawk23]

No doubt - these next few weeks are huge. And, now that we are into August, the light at the end of this 2019 tunnel is becoming clearer. Here's how I think this thing needs to play out for the Brewers (knowing full well of course that nothing ever seems to go according to plan):

 

Tex: win 2/3

Min: win 1/2

@Was: win 2/3 (Scherzer is out, and maybe we can avoid one of Corbin/Strasburg in this series?)

@Stl: win 1/3 (if we lose 2/3 in Wsh, then we need to win 2/3 here for a .500 trip)

Ari: win 2/3

Stl: win 2/3

@Chc: win 1/3

Hou: win 1/2

Chc: win 2/4

@Mia: win 3/4

@Stl: win 2/3

SD: win 2/4

Pit: win 2/3

@Cin: win 2/3

@Col: win 2/3

 

To me, these expectations seem a bit lofty - especially given the current state of our pitching staff. And, this would still only leave us at 87 wins. Is that enough to hunt down the Cubs? Or, are we probably more likely to be going for a WC spot with this scenario? We'd have to hope that the Cubs go 25-23 down the stretch if we were to force a game 163 with them again this year, or 24-24 to beat them outright. Boy, that seems like it is a tough "ask," doesn't it? My guess is that the Cubs end up winning 90 games and taking the division by 3-4 games, when all is said and done. If we can get to 87 though, I'd have to think we'd at least be in a fight for one of the two WC spots.

 

Figured that I would check back in on these projections now that we've gotten through a few series since I posted what I thought it would take for the Crew to make the playoffs. We took care of business by beating Tex 2/3 and by splitting that Twins series, but we lost the series against the Nats that I thought we needed to win (since we were missing Strasburg and Scherzer). So, we need to make that up somewhere, and I can't think of a better place to do that than in STL this week. Need 2/3 here, especially with us missing Mikolas and Flaherty (arguably their two best SP's).

[MrTPlush]

They post it every year on how their could be some nuts tiebreaker and usually it is some far fetched idea just because it would take a perfect scenario. But honestly their are three teams in the NL Central that believe average baseball is the new style, no one is running away with the top WC so those two spots are very close, and realistically I see three teams very close vying to get into a WC. There are a lot of scenarios to make one nightmare of a tiebreaker.

[KeithStone53151]

Tex: win 2/3

Min: win 1/2

@Was: win 2/3 (Scherzer is out, and maybe we can avoid one of Corbin/Strasburg in this series?)

@Stl: win 1/3 (if we lose 2/3 in Wsh, then we need to win 2/3 here for a .500 trip)

Ari: win 2/3

Stl: win 2/3

@Chc: win 1/3

Hou: win 1/2

Chc: win 2/4

@Mia: win 3/4

@Stl: win 2/3

SD: win 2/4

Pit: win 2/3

@Cin: win 2/3

@Col: win 2/3

 

Best case scenario, we are one game behind this projection after today. Easiest places to steal an extra game are probably home vs CHC, home vs SD, or home vs Pit...not in any particular order.

[KeithStone53151]

29 games left and we are 3.5 back of WC2, 5.5 back of the division. We play 7 vs cubs, 2 vs astros, 3 vs cardinals, and 17 against the bottom 5 teams in the NL. The last 13 specifically are against the bottom 5 group. I feel like a very real scenario could be, 3 back of WC2 after the series in STL...and we rattle off 11 or 12 wins to get WC2 and have all the momentum heading into October. I know this isn't the optimism thread...but I'm still hopeful.

[Brew crew 92]

29 games left and we are 3.5 back of WC2, 5.5 back of the division. We play 7 vs cubs, 2 vs astros, 3 vs cardinals, and 17 against the bottom 5 teams in the NL. The last 13 specifically are against the bottom 5 group. I feel like a very real scenario could be, 3 back of WC2 after the series in STL...and we rattle off 11 or 12 wins to get WC2 and have all the momentum heading into October. I know this isn't the optimism thread...but I'm still hopeful.

 

Yes, hopeful for sure.

How many NL contenders vying for the wild card or central have as many arms on the way as we do?

 

I would argue none. Peralta Suter Nelson will help big time, Freitas to give some rest for Grandal is big. Spangenberg has already added a spark with his speed and hustle, Guerra and his splitter, Jackson and his slider vs select RHH, Pomeranz’s experience, Hader and his slider, then Woodruff for the last couple weeks, with a possible rejuvenated Burnes, how can one not get excited.

 

Add all that to a team that knows September is their time to shine, and chomping at the bit to get hot anyhow, wild card probable, division still possible, imo.

[tmwiese55]

Yea it's not lost yet. Of course last year they'd have no shot only being 4 over. But this year it's still right there for the taking if they can through this last week or so of tough games still within just a few games any playoff spot. Get 2/3 this weekend would be a nice start.

[Fear The Chorizo]

29 games left and we are 3.5 back of WC2, 5.5 back of the division. We play 7 vs cubs, 2 vs astros, 3 vs cardinals, and 17 against the bottom 5 teams in the NL. The last 13 specifically are against the bottom 5 group. I feel like a very real scenario could be, 3 back of WC2 after the series in STL...and we rattle off 11 or 12 wins to get WC2 and have all the momentum heading into October. I know this isn't the optimism thread...but I'm still hopeful.

 

Yes, hopeful for sure.

How many NL contenders vying for the wild card or central have as many arms on the way as we do?

 

I would argue none. Peralta Suter Nelson will help big time, Freitas to give some rest for Grandal is big. Spangenberg has already added a spark with his speed and hustle, Guerra and his splitter, Jackson and his slider vs select RHH, Pomeranz’s experience, Hader and his slider, then Woodruff for the last couple weeks, with a possible rejuvenated Burnes, how can one not get excited.

 

Add all that to a team that knows September is their time to shine, and chomping at the bit to get hot anyhow, wild card probable, division still possible, imo.

 

 

Most teams actually do - most other contenders actually have much better arms already on the 25 man roster and arent desperate to find even league average options on the back end of their 40 mam roster to log meaningful september innings.

[willie key]

If brewers win 5 out of 7 against cubs they have a shot. Anything less than that will probably be the final straw

[Brew crew 92]

29 games left and we are 3.5 back of WC2, 5.5 back of the division. We play 7 vs cubs, 2 vs astros, 3 vs cardinals, and 17 against the bottom 5 teams in the NL. The last 13 specifically are against the bottom 5 group. I feel like a very real scenario could be, 3 back of WC2 after the series in STL...and we rattle off 11 or 12 wins to get WC2 and have all the momentum heading into October. I know this isn't the optimism thread...but I'm still hopeful.

 

Yes, hopeful for sure.

How many NL contenders vying for the wild card or central have as many arms on the way as we do?

 

I would argue none. Peralta Suter Nelson will help big time, Freitas to give some rest for Grandal is big. Spangenberg has already added a spark with his speed and hustle, Guerra and his splitter, Jackson and his slider vs select RHH, Pomeranz’s experience, Hader and his slider, then Woodruff for the last couple weeks, with a possible rejuvenated Burnes, how can one not get excited.

 

Add all that to a team that knows September is their time to shine, and chomping at the bit to get hot anyhow, wild card probable, division still possible, imo.

 

 

Most teams actually do - most other contenders actually have much better arms already on the 25 man roster and arent desperate to find even league average options on the back end of their 40 mam roster to log meaningful september innings.

 

Disagree, I’ll take the crew’s September staff over the Nats, Phil’s, Mets, Cards, Cubbies. Provided Houser is ok to start and Woodruff is back the second half of September.

 

Oh, forgot about a well rested Jeffress earlier, sorry your so down on this team, but the pitching is looking up, way up. Just hoping the offense with the Freitas added can hit better with RISP.

[tmwiese55]

I would no way take our staff over Nats and Mets. Pretty sure I wouldn't over the others but at least could see discussion so don't want to say anything. NAts and Mets though I wouldn't think twice.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I think it's more likely that woodruff doesn't pitch again in milwaukee this season than return in a few weeks, and I think houser is going to miss at least one start. I'd take the other teams' staffs over the brewers, too. A well rested jeffress is still a bad pitcher this season in late inning/high leverage spots. All the supposed arms coming up in september are down on the farm right now because they didn't deserve a 25 man roster spot due to either being injured, pitching poorly, or in many cases both.

 

I'll gladly agree to disagree with a poster who can't even find a clock to accidentally be right twice a day based on his track record

[pacopete4]

Yeah, I don't see it happening for the Crew this season. It's been the writing on the wall for a while already. We just are not deep enough or talented enough in the pitching department to make a serious run. Last year, was last year with making a comeback. That team was talented enough to win 96 games. This team will be lucky to be minus 10 from that. Hopefully, they are smart with a guy like Woodruff because he could be a huge piece to our success next season and beyond.

[RollieTime]

Yeah, I don’t see how anyone could take our pitching staff over Scherzer, Strasburg, and Corbin or DeGrom, Syndergaard, Stroman, and Wheeler. Outside of the Astros and possibly the Dodgers, those two staffs are vying for the best there is.

[RollieTime]

Yeah, I don't see it happening for the Crew this season. It's been the writing on the wall for a while already. We just are not deep enough or talented enough in the pitching department to make a serious run. Last year, was last year with making a comeback. That team was talented enough to win 96 games. This team will be lucky to be minus 10 from that. Hopefully, they are smart with a guy like Woodruff because he could be a huge piece to our success next season and beyond.

 

Absolutely. I think it is wise for the Brewers to hold Woodruff back from pitching again this season and make sure he is 100% heading into 2020. I don’t see the Brewers making the playoffs, but even if they did, they would need a lot more than Woodruff to make a real run at the World Series. There just is not enough high end pitching talent on the roster this season.

[tmwiese55]

It's just crazy that a week or so back GM is on hot seat due to how awful he constructed the team and pitching, now all of a sudden they have the best staff in the NL outside of LAD. Heck, with Jansen falling apart maybe we're actually better than them too.

 

Speaking of Jansen, seems LAD really should be kicking themselves for not upgrading the pen. In spite of how loaded their team is they have a massive achilles heal right now and it was one that everyone could see coming before the deadline, especially if you have Jansen in fantasy. Wonder what Pit was demanding for Vasquez, I'd assume Pit wouldn't budge if they didn't give the AAA SS prospect.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I see the offense as being too inconsistent to go on a serious run. I actually think the rotation is in decent shape, and while the pen has everyone on pins and needles every game, they've been a little better lately. Inconsistent hitting is dooming this team.

[Brew crew 92]

Wow, Woodruff to not throw another pitch until 2020. Is there something you know that Stearns doesn’t know?. Stearns just said Woody will be back, just not stretched out. Some you are seriously discounting the boost this bullpen will have soon from pitchers in AAA that are pitching lights out > Suter, or really well > Nelson Peralta. Guerra throwing his splitter is big, Hader with the slider, Pomeranz has looked really good. That’s 6 pen arms, imo, on the upswing not including Claudio Albers Jeffress Jackson. And I won’t be shocked to see burnes added next week either.

 

This is not the first 5 months bullpen.

[Brew crew 92]

I see the offense as being too inconsistent to go on a serious run. I actually think the rotation is in decent shape, and while the pen has everyone on pins and needles every game, they've been a little better lately. Inconsistent hitting is dooming this team.

 

Agree, if they don’t get in, it’ll be the offense and not the pitching.