2019 BREWERS OPTIMISM THREAD

[SRB]

Brandon Woodruff: Secret Ace?

 

Through 42.1 IP as a starter this season, Woodruff now has an 11.5 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 2.87 FIP, 3.32 xFIP. His success has been somewhat obscured by an inflated ERA (4.25) that has also dragged down his IP/GS.

 

But according to all advanced metrics he has been fantastic. The last Brewers pitcher to finish a season with 150+ IP and a lower FIP was Chris Bosio in 1987. Actually only three Brewers pitchers have ever had 150+ IP and a lower FIP (Bosio, 1988 Teddy Higuera, 2004 Ben Sheets). Woodruff so far is having a very similar season, including the unfairly elevated ERA, to 2011 Zack Greinke (3.83 ERA, 2.98 FIP).

 

With there being an outside chance that Jimmy Nelson comes back strong, with Davies and Anderson pitching closer to their 2017 forms, and with Gio Gonzalez looking decent so far, I think there is room for optimism in the starting rotation all of a sudden!

[SRB]

*Edit* Ok in the above post I clearly screwed up the order of the "last" Brewers pitcher to have a lower FIP, but the point remains!

[Oxy]

Brandon Woodruff: Secret Ace?

 

Through 42.1 IP as a starter this season, Woodruff now has an 11.5 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 2.87 FIP, 3.32 xFIP. His success has been somewhat obscured by an inflated ERA (4.25) that has also dragged down his IP/GS.

 

But according to all advanced metrics he has been fantastic. The last Brewers pitcher to finish a season with 150+ IP and a lower FIP was Chris Bosio in 1987. Actually only three Brewers pitchers have ever had 150+ IP and a lower FIP (Bosio, 1988 Teddy Higuera, 2004 Ben Sheets). Woodruff so far is having a very similar season, including the unfairly elevated ERA, to 2011 Zack Greinke (3.83 ERA, 2.98 FIP).

With there being an outside chance that Jimmy Nelson comes back strong, with Davies and Anderson pitching closer to their 2017 forms, and with Gio Gonzalez looking decent so far, I think there is room for optimism in the starting rotation all of a sudden!

 

Some may say that Greinke's ERA was very fair since he was kind of a weirdo who was honest-ish with the media. The capricious baseball Gods can be confusing to the laymen.

[pacopete4]

I loooooove the quietness around here while winning. Let’s keep doing that!

[bigredrobbo]

We're 6 games over and only two games back of the division lead.

 

Despite Travis Shaw's slow start

Despite Jesus Aguilar's slow start

Despite a brutal schedule so far

Despite missing the consistency of last year's bullpen

 

....and we haven't played 6 games versus the Marlins, who I'm convinced a Brewerfan.net team would give a game!

[TJseven7]

In 2018 mke averaged 4.57 runs per game.

In 2019 mke is averaging 4.72 runs per game.

 

3-4-5 hitters are batting:

Sub .210 BA

Sub .295 OBP

Sub .670 OPS

 

Moose Grandal Braun Thames and Gamel are hitting well above those numbers. As are Woodruff and Chacin. This nonsense can not last.

 

The ERA is at 4.44 vs last years 3.65. However, it has dropped from 5.03 to 4.44 in the last 10 games. Jimmy Nelson and Chase Anderson are pitching in SA.

 

.9 run diff = playoffs.... currently at .28... still 5 games over .500 which is on pace for 90 wins and that shouldn't be the case. The ERA is crashing down and huge gains can be made in run production when 3-4-5 stabilize. 5 runs and 3.9 earned is possible and 1.1 run diff = 100 wins.

[clancyphile]

If this is a struggling Brewers team... wait till they fire on all cylinders.

[Brew crew 92]

If this is a struggling Brewers team... wait till they fire on all cylinders.

 

Yes, the pitching staff has been holding the fort the last couple weeks, with Cain’s emergence, and huira in the line-up, we should average 5+ runs a game moving forward.

 

And our pitching which has been good, with chase back this week and Nelson soon after will lead the NL in era from May 3 thru the playoffs.

[jjgott]

Hiura comin' y'all

[Roderick]

The Brewers just called up 1992 Cal Eldred.... oops I mean Keston Hiura.

[adambr2]

A lot of things have really gone wrong this year -- Aguilar, Shaw, Cain all in big slumps, Burnes didn't work out so far in the rotation, Freddy Peralta ERA over 6, no Nelson yet, and we'd still host a playoff game if the season ended today.

[jjfanec]

A lot of things have really gone wrong this year -- Aguilar, Shaw, Cain all in big slumps, Burnes didn't work out so far in the rotation, Freddy Peralta ERA over 6, no Nelson yet, and we'd still host a playoff game if the season ended today.

 

Not only that they have done this while playing a brutal schedule. 31 of 44 games against teams 500 or above and another 6 against teams who are just 2 games under.

[brewmann04]

Yes a lot of ups and downs tough April Schedule but we are right in there .

Hopefully Nelson can help once he returns and either Braun and Aguillar can get hot.

we are still leaving to many men on base for my liking but the starters have pitched well and Gio has been very efficient.

[Greenleaf1]

Even in a hitless game for Yelich yesterday, seems like he was millimeters away from a 3-hit game with 2 homers.

 

Baseball Savant Exit Velocities/xBA:

 

1st inning flyout: 103.8 mph/.710

4th inning flyout: 106.8 mph/.360

8th inning groundout: 107.6 mph!!!/.780

 

He was scalding the ball yesterday but either just missed it or just hit it in the wrong spot.

[torts]

1. Yelich is a freak

2. Pitching is a freak

3. Yelich is a freak

 

this team is so fun to watch!

[Lathund]

27-19

 

With the hardest schedule and the fewest off days. We're done with the season series against the best team in the NL (Dodgers). We've played a grand total of 10 games against the current 4th and 5th placed teams.

[Pugger]

Well, the Cubs lost last night...

[RobDeer 45]

Great turn out by Brewers Fans at Target Field last night. As I stated in the in-game, when Arcia hit the go ahead home run, to a very loud chant of "Let's Go Brewers," it was a truly awesome moment. Nice win against a very hot team.

[TJseven7]

Very big 10 game stretch for MKE here. The starting rotation is a solid as its been all year. The holes in lineup are down to Aguilar's platoon role. It's time to add 4 wins to our stack over 500. Time to shoot up to 10 games over 500 and show the Astros what they can expect.

[IIAY]

Looking at the schedule at the beginning of the year, if you would have told me that as of May 31 our top two pitchers would be Davies and Woodruff and we would have next to no contribution from Burnes, Shaw, Aguilar, and Thames, there is no way I would have expected to be 7 games above .500. This team has done an excellent job of navigating the tough early schedule and is in prime position to make some hay over the next two months.

[torts]

I love this team!

[Zad Fnark]

I noticed Milwaukee's on top, for now.

[young guns]

Jimmy!!

[Oxy]

Things are looking good for summertime! This is EASILY the deepest Brewer team in my memory. They've been inconsistent, but there is always a talented player to step in when somebody else is scuffling. There are no scrubs from 1-35+ on the roster.

[clancyphile]

Looking at the schedule at the beginning of the year, if you would have told me that as of May 31 our top two pitchers would be Davies and Woodruff and we would have next to no contribution from Burnes, Shaw, Aguilar, and Thames, there is no way I would have expected to be 7 games above .500. This team has done an excellent job of navigating the tough early schedule and is in prime position to make some hay over the next two months.

 

Prior to today's game, Thames had an OPS of .801 - it's gone up with a 2-3 game with a walk, double, and homer. He was putting up a .372 OBP against a .244 average.

 

I expect that next year, it will be Aguilar's turn to rebound.

 

Thames had a good odd year, then slumped in an even year, and the Crew was picked up by Aguilar.

Aguilar had a great even year, slumped, and Thames is picking up the Crew.