Paul Goldschmidt Extension 5yr 130million

[ThisIsMyCrew]

Rosenthal reporting 5 year 110 mil extension. Figured this would happen. Cardinals always find a way.

[KeithStone53151]

Looks like it's 5/130 from what I'm seeing. Irritating.

[homer]

He's 31 and probably about to decline. Doesn't bother me.

[MoreTrife]

ALLLL the eyerolling over the reporting on the two sides "falling in love" with each other.

[rickh150]

With the extension, that trade is a steal for the Cardinals.... I wonder how the Cards knew he could be extended? Most guys don't extend when they are a year away from free agency. When is the last time a Brewer has been extended right before his final year (before FA)?

[MadScientist]

With the extension, that trade is a steal for the Cardinals.... I wonder how the Cards knew he could be extended? Most guys don't extend when they are a year away from free agency. When is the last time a Brewer has been extended right before his final year (before FA)?

He looked at his age and the market for sluggers like him and decided to take the big pile of cash instead now instead of hoping for more.

 

Steal or albatross will depend on how he ages.

[TURBO]

He's 31 and probably about to decline. Doesn't bother me.

 

Wish he would be declining in Milwaukee...

[TigerUppercut]

With the extension, that trade is a steal for the Cardinals.... I wonder how the Cards knew he could be extended? Most guys don't extend when they are a year away from free agency. When is the last time a Brewer has been extended right before his final year (before FA)?

 

Carlos Gomez?

[Thurston Fluff]

He's 31 and probably about to decline. Doesn't bother me.

 

That's how I view it. This seems like something teams did ten years ago then learned their lesson.

[owbc]

What an embarrassment for the Diamondbacks, good lord.

[RollieTime]

I was hoping the Brewers would have an opportunity to get Goldschmidt after this season. I think he will age well and be productive throughout the entire contract for the Cardinals.

[Eye Black]

I’ll be a little surprised if Goldschmidt goes into some rapid decline in his early 30’s. I would bet on him to still produce at a high level for at least the next three seasons, which aligns with the same timeframe the Brewers are going to be competing with them for the NL Central title. I would have much preferred that the Cardinals weren’t able to extend Goldschmidt even if it means a year or two at the end of the contract where he might be less productive.

[adambr2]

Pujols started to decline at 31, then went full nosedive at 33. Braun declined fairly significantly around 30. Mark Texiera dropped off at 30. The only recent similar type career hitter that has been able to completely defy Father Time for the most part that I can think of is Joey Votto, although his power did pretty much vanish last year at 34/35.

[endaround]

Pujols started to decline at 31, then went full nosedive at 33. Braun declined fairly significantly around 30. Mark Texiera dropped off at 30. The only recent similar type career hitter that has been able to completely defy Father Time for the most part that I can think of is Joey Votto, although his power did pretty much vanish last year at 34/35.

Limiting it to just sluggers you have:

David Ortiz

Nelson Cruz

[nate82]

This is going to be an albatross for the Cardinals but the DH possibly coming to the NL should help.

 

This is a definite overpay from what Goldschmidt would have received in FA. The 1B/DH market is overly saturated. If Goldschmidt went to FA he would be looking at 1-3 year deals at about $20m a season.

 

Years 3-5 are going to be a real problem for the Cardinals if the NL doesn't have the DH.

[Eye Black]

Pujols started to decline at 31, then went full nosedive at 33. Braun declined fairly significantly around 30. Mark Texiera dropped off at 30. The only recent similar type career hitter that has been able to completely defy Father Time for the most part that I can think of is Joey Votto, although his power did pretty much vanish last year at 34/35.

Limiting it to just sluggers you have:

David Ortiz

Nelson Cruz

Goldschmidt’s top two Baseball Reference career similarity scores through their age-30 seasons are Jeff Bagwell and Adrian Gonzalez. Both of those hitters maintained health and hitting prowess until around age-34/35.

[sveumrules]

Matt Holliday, Edwin Encarnacion & even someone like Paul Konerko are other recent big bodied guys that could be decent-ish comps that were still productive post-30...

 

Goldy age 28-30 OPS+: 138

 

Holliday age 28-30 OPS+: 142

Holliday age 31-36 OPS+: 133

 

Edwin age 28-30 OPS+: 137

Edwin age 31-35 OPS+: 135

 

Konerko age 28-30 OPS+: 132

Konerko age 31-36 OPS+: 128

 

Berkman lines up alright too...

 

Goldy before 30 OPS+: 145

 

Berkman before 30 OPS+: 149

Berkman age 31-36 OPS+: 142

[Thurston Fluff]

Pujols started to decline at 31, then went full nosedive at 33. Braun declined fairly significantly around 30. Mark Texiera dropped off at 30. The only recent similar type career hitter that has been able to completely defy Father Time for the most part that I can think of is Joey Votto, although his power did pretty much vanish last year at 34/35.

Limiting it to just sluggers you have:

David Ortiz

Nelson Cruz

Goldschmidt’s top two Baseball Reference career similarity scores through their age-30 seasons are Jeff Bagwell and Adrian Gonzalez. Both of those hitters maintained health and hitting prowess until around age-34/35.

 

Gonzalez last season with an OPS+ north of 100 was his age 34 season but he already fell off considerably from his age 33 season. Bagwell is harder to compare due to the era he played in. There was a lot more guys who aged well back then. Not coincidentally that era ended about the time steroid testing started. I doubt he's going to fall off a cliff at age 33 but he isn't likely to be worth what he's making after that.

[Ennder]

You all are listing a lot of DH's as comps, he most likely won't have that luxury (though he may). The aging curves have also gotten less friendly to older players in recent seasons. There is very little chance they don't regret this deal for at least 1 or 2 years. They have to hope the other 3-4 years makes up for it. Not an awful deal but certainly a risky one.

[reillymcshane]

Trying to comp 'aging' is always really hard. Age and injury related decline of players just happens. You really have to simply look at overall trends and not try and compare Goldy or whomever to other guys. It's just too hard. Some guys decline fast, others don't. Some guys have injuries, some don't. I'm sure the clubs have detailed info that we don't about certain factors that they track as well.

 

No matter, I wish Goldschmidt WASN'T in St. Louis. He's a really good player.

[sveumrules]

You all are listing a lot of DH's as comps, he most likely won't have that luxury (though he may). The aging curves have also gotten less friendly to older players in recent seasons. There is very little chance they don't regret this deal for at least 1 or 2 years. They have to hope the other 3-4 years makes up for it. Not an awful deal but certainly a risky one.

 

Holliday age 31-36 was all with STL, so no DH.

 

From age 31-36 only 37 of Berkman's 747 games were in the AL, so not really a DH.

 

Konerko age 31-36 played 732 games at 1B vs 132 at DH, so still not really a DH.

 

Encarnacion is the only comp I listed that was a primary DH post age 30.

[OnTheBlack]

With the extension, that trade is a steal for the Cardinals.... I wonder how the Cards knew he could be extended? Most guys don't extend when they are a year away from free agency. When is the last time a Brewer has been extended right before his final year (before FA)?

 

 

I think players are changing their minds about going into the free agency waters.

 

5 years ago this would have been an 8 year deal for 210. Now it's a pretty smart, reasonable deal where his last year he'll probably not be nearly as good, but still an effective, high OBP 1st basemen.

[Dead Simmons]

As a St. Louisan I'm of course pretty stoked about this aquisition. In recent years the team has picked up several 30+ something guys that still played well; Larry Walker, Beltran and Berkman come to mind.

 

Who can say when a guy's gonna lose it? The number of guys that continued to be effective at 33 is too long to list. But it's safe to say that Goldy will still be good THIS year.

 

What I don't get is why the D'Backs got nothing for him. I would blame LaRussa (who I will always hate) but he's lost his influence in AZ....is he even still on the payroll?

[Brew crew 92]

LaRussa’s with Boston last year or two. Agree on trade. Took the floor over ceiling. In my opinion hit tool stays longer> votto

[clancyphile]

LaRussa’s with Boston last year or two. Agree on trade. Took the floor over ceiling. In my opinion hit tool stays longer> votto

 

Perhaps Goldschmidt didn't want to stay in Arizona and made it known he'd leave as a free agent - so the D-Backs got what they could.