Kimbrel?

[FVBrewerFan]

I would stress calm. This is nothing to get worked up over ... yet anyway. Lets wait to hear how Jeffress's pen session goes today. If Knebel is back throwing by the weekend, I think they'll probably be OK. I agree that it certainly isn't ideal, but the sky isn't falling either.

 

I'm not calm at all. I assume bad news whenever a pitcher has any issue with the arm, until proven otherwise. Jeffress and Knebel are not going to be pitching on opening day, and that's the floor for potential problems. One or both may be out for extended period of time. Nothing I have heard yet tells me that's not a real possibility. Nelson has yet to prove he can come back and stay healthy and consistently have good outings over a period of time. Davies and Anderson are a big concern. Three "young" starters who have yet to prove they can be reliable starters over the course of an entire season. That's the glass is half empty take, but I'm not real comfortable. Not to mention the season hasn't even started, and there will be more of this to come.

 

Even if everyone was healthy and effective, I don't see the downside with signing Kimbrel. It's not a problem for me to have too many great pitchers on the staff. Might be tough on Mark A's billfold for a couple years, but he can live with that.

[pacopete4]

Expect the signing very soon. With knebel now “not throwing” better be imminent or the price going way up.

Knebel has some dead arm. It happens to pretty all pitchers at some point.

 

Disagree, doesn’t happen to all pitchers at some point. It’s in the Brewers best interest to downplay the possible injuries to jeffress AND Knebel.The Brewers NEED Kimbrel and his agent not stupid. Brewers in trouble here, even if they get Kimbrel. He won’t make up for not having TWO of our best high leverage pen arms. I’m more than concerned, I’m scared. Sign Kimbrel and I’ll just be concerned.

 

It really does but yes, keep littering the page with overreactions to every bit of news that falls out of spring training.

[Brew crew 92]

Giving 4 years, 76 million dollars to a guy that would likely max out at 240 innings over 4 years would be one of the worst knee-jerk reactions ever pulled off by a small-market team.

 

If the Brewers are going to give that type of money to a player, then why not Keuchel? He could give the Brewers three times as many innings. Adds a left-handed pitcher to the rotation. Seems like a natural fit for Miller Park. 76 million what would likely be an inflexible, one-inning reliever...seems like a really poor investment to me.

 

JosephC, I respect and appreciate the analysis that you give this board sir, but respectfully disagree with your take here. We are currently NOT a small market team anymore. Revenue wise we are closer to the middle of the pack then the end. Midmarket and isn’t that exciting. I would argue Kimbrels elite high leverage possible best relief pitcher of all time talent to help our bullpen which in my opinion needs an off a lot of help right now, especially for a team that uses their pen the way the Brewers do to be more important than an above average starting pitcher even if he is left-handed. If given the choice for the same amount of money and years I’ll take Kimbrel.

[MrTPlush]

Giving 4 years, 76 million dollars to a guy that would likely max out at 240 innings over 4 years would be one of the worst knee-jerk reactions ever pulled off by a small-market team.

 

If the Brewers are going to give that type of money to a player, then why not Keuchel? He could give the Brewers three times as many innings. Adds a left-handed pitcher to the rotation. Seems like a natural fit for Miller Park. 76 million what would likely be an inflexible, one-inning reliever...seems like a really poor investment to me.

 

You pull those figures out of thin air? Seems random.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Giving 4 years, 76 million dollars to a guy that would likely max out at 240 innings over 4 years would be one of the worst knee-jerk reactions ever pulled off by a small-market team.

 

If the Brewers are going to give that type of money to a player, then why not Keuchel? He could give the Brewers three times as many innings. Adds a left-handed pitcher to the rotation. Seems like a natural fit for Miller Park. 76 million what would likely be an inflexible, one-inning reliever...seems like a really poor investment to me.

 

You pull those figures out of thin air? Seems random.

 

Look 5 posts higher than Joseph's.

[MrTPlush]

Giving 4 years, 76 million dollars to a guy that would likely max out at 240 innings over 4 years would be one of the worst knee-jerk reactions ever pulled off by a small-market team.

 

If the Brewers are going to give that type of money to a player, then why not Keuchel? He could give the Brewers three times as many innings. Adds a left-handed pitcher to the rotation. Seems like a natural fit for Miller Park. 76 million what would likely be an inflexible, one-inning reliever...seems like a really poor investment to me.

 

You pull those figures out of thin air? Seems random.

 

Look 5 posts higher than Joseph's.

 

Ahh thanks.

 

Yah no chance he gets that. Would be pretty shocked if he breaks the record for a relief pitcher either yearly or as an entire deal when he is unsigned days before opening day. Once way he breaks the yearly AAV is on a one year deal MAYBE a two year deal if teams are actually offering 3-4 years. I really doubt that though. If we have serious interest I am betting all the offers are coming in at 1-2 years with maybe some 3 year deals with notably lower AAV.

[Brew crew 92]

One man’s litter is another’s opinion, but I’ll take it under advisement, good sir.

[Brew crew 92]

I sure hope I’m wrong and “overreacting” to all this dead arm and shoulder weakness talk with Knebel and jeffress respectfully. And I’ve always believed in stearns word and have total confidence in his stewardship of the Milwaukee Brewers. Injury’s happen in baseball, and that’s the one thing stearns CANT control. He can build overwhelming depth, which he has, but when injury’s happen to star players that can devistate a teams fortune’s. I admit I’m gunshy when it comes to brewer injuries. From Larry Hisle to Rollie fingers to teddy higuera on and on I could go. Last year we were fortunate injury wise,I hope we are this year too.

[82brewcrew82]

It really does but yes, keep littering the page with overreactions to every bit of news that falls out of spring training.

The "ignore" feature is a great thing.

[JosephC]

Giving 4 years, 76 million dollars to a guy that would likely max out at 240 innings over 4 years would be one of the worst knee-jerk reactions ever pulled off by a small-market team.

 

If the Brewers are going to give that type of money to a player, then why not Keuchel? He could give the Brewers three times as many innings. Adds a left-handed pitcher to the rotation. Seems like a natural fit for Miller Park. 76 million what would likely be an inflexible, one-inning reliever...seems like a really poor investment to me.

 

JosephC, I respect and appreciate the analysis that you give this board sir, but respectfully disagree with your take here. We are currently NOT a small market team anymore. Revenue wise we are closer to the middle of the pack then the end. Midmarket and isn’t that exciting. I would argue Kimbrels elite high leverage possible best relief pitcher of all time talent to help our bullpen which in my opinion needs an off a lot of help right now, especially for a team that uses their pen the way the Brewers do to be more important than an above average starting pitcher even if he is left-handed. If given the choice for the same amount of money and years I’ll take Kimbrel.

 

Media market is smallest in MLB and Forbes estimated the Brewers revenue as ranking 24th in MLB and that's after a very successful season coming off of another successful season.

 

For decades the closer was the most over-valued commodity in baseball. Here is a rigid role, a guy that only pitches 1 inning 90+% of the time, and takes away all matchup benefits a manager can use because "well he's the closer so he has to pitch the 9th inning."

 

Statistical models have constantly demonstrated that lack of worth of closers for years. The top closers generally convert about 90% of their save opportunities, and the worst generally convert about 80% of their save opportunities. Kimbrel sits at 90.7% for his career, a top number. Generally the average conversion rates for guys who are in the closer role is around 85%. If using 2018 numbers, there were 33 players that had 14 saves or more. I wanted to just take the top 30, but players 30, 31, 32, 33 all had 14 saves so all were included. Top 33 in saves last year combined for 836 saves and 134 blown saves, an 86.2 conversion rate. Kimbrel has averaged 45.75 opportunities over his full 8 MLB seasons, and that's a reasonable number to use for the amount of save opportunities a closer sees over the course of an average season. Edwin Diaz had 61 opportunities last year, but the second highest was Wade Davis and he was at 49. 10 players had 32+ saves last year, average number of opportunities for those 10 players was 43.5.

 

So lets just use some numbers from above. Good closer = 90% conversion rate. Average closer = 85% conversion rate. Bad closer = 80% conversion rate. Expect 45 save opportunities per season. So the great closer is good for 40.5 saves. Worst closers are good for 36 saves. A full 4.5 game difference. But taking an elite closer like Kimbrel, and comparing him to the league average closer, the difference is only 2.25 saves. And here is the big thing that can't be overlooked, every time a closer blows a save, it does not mean a loss for the team. Plenty of times the closer allows for a game to be tied, and his team still goes on to win later in the game. I've seen stats that indicate around 35% of the time a team blows a ninth inning save, that the team who lost the lead still does go on to win the game later. When making that adjustment, the difference in the best closer in the game versus a bottom-of-the-barrel closer would be 3 wins...and the difference between a top closer and an average closer would only be about 1.5 wins.

 

Kimbrel has been a dominating closer, but there is a reason his average bWAR/fWAR over the last 3 years is only 2.1. Closers are an over-rated commodity and have been for decades now.

 

Just think, Knebel was the Brewers closer last year and flat out stunk it up for nearly four months. 5.08 ERA on August 21 and was so bad that he got a ticket to AAA. And despite all that, even though the Brewers had a player stinking it up in such a critical role, they still went on to finish with the best record in the National League.

 

I'd go as far to say that a 76 million dollars in Kimbrel would be a pretty ridiculous investment for any team in baseball, especially the Brewers. I wouldn't really have been opposed to something like 1 year, 15 million, but would even start questioning that after having typed this post.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Last year we were fortunate injury wise,I hope we are this year too.

 

The team's ace missed the whole season. Their #3 & #4 (Davies and Miley) missed huge chunks of the year. Tough injuries happen to every team, every year. Solidly built teams can overcome them, just as the Brewers did last year. Did they get lucky? Maybe. But I don't think luck is entirely random when it comes to baseball either.

[pacopete4]

Last year we were fortunate injury wise,I hope we are this year too.

 

The team's ace missed the whole season. Their #3 & #4 (Davies and Miley) missed huge chunks of the year. Tough injuries happen to every team, every year. Solidly built teams can overcome them, just as the Brewers did last year. Did they get lucky? Maybe. But I don't think luck is entirely random when it comes to baseball either.

 

Correct. Injuries happen every season, to every team. Last year was really no different. We just happened to work through them better than other years because we found pieces that stepped in and performed higher than projections. How injuries affect teams also are different season to season. Lots of variables to baseball. Building the most depth they possibly can give them a chance to compete even with injuries but even then it is not a guarantee.

[Brew crew 92]

Giving 4 years, 76 million dollars to a guy that would likely max out at 240 innings over 4 years would be one of the worst knee-jerk reactions ever pulled off by a small-market team.

 

If the Brewers are going to give that type of money to a player, then why not Keuchel? He could give the Brewers three times as many innings. Adds a left-handed pitcher to the rotation. Seems like a natural fit for Miller Park. 76 million what would likely be an inflexible, one-inning reliever...seems like a really poor investment to me.

 

JosephC, I respect and appreciate the analysis that you give this board sir, but respectfully disagree with your take here. We are currently NOT a small market team anymore. Revenue wise we are closer to the middle of the pack then the end. Midmarket and isn’t that exciting. I would argue Kimbrels elite high leverage possible best relief pitcher of all time talent to help our bullpen which in my opinion needs an off a lot of help right now, especially for a team that uses their pen the way the Brewers do to be more important than an above average starting pitcher even if he is left-handed. If given the choice for the same amount of money and years I’ll take Kimbrel.

 

Media market is smallest in MLB and Forbes estimated the Brewers revenue as ranking 24th in MLB and that's after a very successful season coming off of another successful season.

 

For decades the closer was the most over-valued commodity in baseball. Here is a rigid role, a guy that only pitches 1 inning 90+% of the time, and takes away all matchup benefits a manager can use because "well he's the closer so he has to pitch the 9th inning."

 

Statistical models have constantly demonstrated that lack of worth of closers for years. The top closers generally convert about 90% of their save opportunities, and the worst generally convert about 80% of their save opportunities. Kimbrel sits at 90.7% for his career, a top number. Generally the average conversion rates for guys who are in the closer role is around 85%. If using 2018 numbers, there were 33 players that had 14 saves or more. I wanted to just take the top 30, but players 30, 31, 32, 33 all had 14 saves so all were included. Top 33 in saves last year combined for 836 saves and 134 blown saves, an 86.2 conversion rate. Kimbrel has averaged 45.75 opportunities over his full 8 MLB seasons, and that's a reasonable number to use for the amount of save opportunities a closer sees over the course of an average season. Edwin Diaz had 61 opportunities last year, but the second highest was Wade Davis and he was at 49. 10 players had 32+ saves last year, average number of opportunities for those 10 players was 43.5.

 

So lets just use some numbers from above. Good closer = 90% conversion rate. Average closer = 85% conversion rate. Bad closer = 80% conversion rate. Expect 45 save opportunities per season. So the great closer is good for 40.5 saves. Worst closers are good for 36 saves. A full 4.5 game difference. But taking an elite closer like Kimbrel, and comparing him to the league average closer, the difference is only 2.25 saves. And here is the big thing that can't be overlooked, every time a closer blows a save, it does not mean a loss for the team. Plenty of times the closer allows for a game to be tied, and his team still goes on to win later in the game. I've seen stats that indicate around 35% of the time a team blows a ninth inning save, that the team who lost the lead still does go on to win the game later. When making that adjustment, the difference in the best closer in the game versus a bottom-of-the-barrel closer would be 3 wins...and the difference between a top closer and an average closer would only be about 1.5 wins.

 

Kimbrel has been a dominating closer, but there is a reason his average bWAR/fWAR over the last 3 years is only 2.1. Closers are an over-rated commodity and have been for decades now.

 

Just think, Knebel was the Brewers closer last year and flat out stunk it up for nearly four months. 5.08 ERA on August 21 and was so bad that he got a ticket to AAA. And despite all that, even though the Brewers had a player stinking it up in such a critical role, they still went on to finish with the best record in the National League.

 

I'd go as far to say that a 76 million dollars in Kimbrel would be a pretty ridiculous investment for any team in baseball, especially the Brewers. I wouldn't really have been opposed to something like 1 year, 15 million, but would even start questioning that after having typed this post.

 

Yes we are the smallest market in every way except revenue.i couldn’t find 2018 team revenues but 2017 forbes had them at 255 which put them 23rd in baseball. Last year brewers drew 300,000 more fans AND made 10-20 mil just in playoff revenue. Puts us closer to 300. This year brewers conservatively Will draw over 3 million fans. Fangraphs estimates a playoff appearance to be worth between 20-30 million to a team. Even with the smallest media market our contract is up after this year and the Brewers should get a bump with that. National TV revenue is also up merchandise sales are also up. At worst the Brewers are a lower end mid-market team.

[JosephC]

Where was Knebel in April last year? Oh yeah, limping off the mound after one appearance with what looked like a major hamstring injury. Missed a month and the Brewers finish with the best record in the NL. Yelich blowing out an ACL should send Brewer fans into panic mode...not this bullpen stuff.

[Brew crew 92]

Last year we were fortunate injury wise,I hope we are this year too.

 

The team's ace missed the whole season. Their #3 & #4 (Davies and Miley) missed huge chunks of the year. Tough injuries happen to every team, every year. Solidly built teams can overcome them, just as the Brewers did last year. Did they get lucky? Maybe. But I don't think luck is entirely random when it comes to baseball either.

 

I can’t disagree with what you said,we definatly had our share of injuries, only quibble would be jimmys, his 2017. And I agree we overcame them with our depth. I would argue that Jimmy’s injury in September 2017 kept us from making the playoffs. Star players can’t miss significant time.

[jonescm128]

Where was Knebel in April last year? Oh yeah, limping off the mound after one appearance with what looked like a major hamstring injury. Missed a month and the Brewers finish with the best record in the NL. Yelich blowing out an ACL should send Brewer fans into panic mode...not this bullpen stuff.

 

HOW DARE YOU PUT THAT OUT INTO THE UNIVERSE!

[FVBrewerFan]

Where was Knebel in April last year? Oh yeah, limping off the mound after one appearance with what looked like a major hamstring injury. Missed a month and the Brewers finish with the best record in the NL. Yelich blowing out an ACL should send Brewer fans into panic mode...not this bullpen stuff.

 

Well, there is a difference between a leg injury and an arm injury when it comes to a pitcher.

 

For every over-reaction there is an equal and opposite under-reaction.

[82brewcrew82]

If all it's going to take to derail this team is a couple of injured bullpen arms (even important ones) then this team is in big trouble.

[Yellin4Yelich]

My guess is that Kimbrel doesn't have any multi-year deals on the table anywhere near his desired AAV. As we are getting closer to opening day, teams are probably getting scared off (see greg holland and alex cobb from last year). Maybe Milwaukee has the best 1 year pillow deal on the table - 1yr/$15-20 million. Milwaukee would only have to give a 4th round pick if they signed him, right? So it makes a bit more sense for us compared to other teams.

 

Maybe we'll get a discount because its getting late. I think Kimbrel waiting until after the draft or sitting out the entire season is not going to happen. They can probably take on the extra salary if its short term or maybe backload it if we're talking a longer deal.

[Boomer5]

We have all seen this movie before in Milwaukee regarding JJ and Knebel. It always starts out as precautionary but seemingly always ends badly. There’s a reason they are talking to Kimbrel.

 

At least now we have Mark A who won’t let these possible injuries wreck the season.

[Brew crew 92]

We have all seen this movie before in Milwaukee regarding JJ and Knebel. It always starts out as precautionary but seemingly always ends badly. There’s a reason they are talking to Kimbrel.

 

At least now we have Mark A who won’t let these possible injuries wreck the season.

 

+1

But I hope your wrong.

[OldHeidelberg]

Well, the Knebel news certainly took the wind out of my sails with the Kimbrel talk. Have to think the 2 stories are connected. I guess the thought may be they can give a deal to Kimbrel, hope everyone gets healthy and have an elite bullpen, then trade someone in the offseason(or even midseason if things go sour) to help with the salaries. Knebel will get pretty expensive if he has another good season. I am always for a one year deal no matter how much, it's not my money and its the longer term stuff that hurts the Brewers.

[RollieTime]

Looks like trading Knebel this offseason would of been a wise decision... Could of really cashed in on him with having 3 years of control remaining.

[Brew crew 92]

Only thing that surprises me knebel news is that it came out today and not after they finished Kimbrel negotiations. Pay what ever it takes mr stearns/mark A.!!!!

[IntentionalHBP]

Only thing that surprises me knebel news is that it came out today and not after they finished Kimbrel negotiations. Pay what ever it takes mr stearns/mark A.!!!!

JJMOOSE?