Kimbrel?

[FVBrewerFan]

Big money/ multi-year deals for relievers are almost always a bad idea. Especially when they're on the wrong side of 28. Hard pass.

[mlloyd10]

3/45 - TO in yr 2, PO in yr 3

[pacopete4]

Big money/ multi-year deals for relievers are almost always a bad idea. Especially when they're on the wrong side of 28. Hard pass.

 

Agreed. Stand pat unless he wants a 1-year.

[sveumrules]

Runs Allowed WAR (rank) Win Probability Added (rank) among relievers 2017-18

 

Kimbrel 5.7 (2nd) 8.13 (1st)

Knebel 4.6 (4th) 5.50 (5th)

Hader 4.5 (5th) 4.73 (8th)

Jeffress 4.4 (9th) 4.14 (13th)

Claudio 3.2 (20th) 4.09 (14th)

 

Closer than many probably think.

 

 

No, there's a FAR greater difference between the first four(3 especially IMO) and Claudio, and I don't care what a small sample size for a left-handed specialist says.

 

The other 4 pitchers are elite power arms who can get out both lefties and rights and can break a thin pane of glass with a baseball, not to mention almost all of Claudio's WAR comes from two years ago when he had a fluke year and put up a 2.8 WAR season. This also includes a year in which he posted a whip over 1.5.

 

It's not close at all regardless of what one stat driven primarily by one year says.

 

Also, when in tough spots, I'll take the guys who strike out 3 times as many people as Claudio does.

 

I used 2017-18 because that’s how long Hader has been in the league. If you go back to Claudio’s first season in 2016 he has pitched 197 innings (22nd among all relievers) in 173 games, so he is not a lefty specialist. He also ranks 20th in Win Probability Added & 26th in Runs Allowed WAR over that time frame.

 

So over a three year sample (aka not small) he has been a top 25ish reliever in all of baseball. I never said he was on the same level as the other guys, just closer than many probably think.

 

If I need to get outs in 2019 I’ll take Claudio over Jeffress, Kimbrel & Knebel at the present moment.

[reillymcshane]

With the Braves closer Arodys Vizcaíno out for the season, a Kimbrel reunion makes a lot of sense.

 

The Braves payroll is about $115M for 2019, but beyond that, they don't have any huge commitments besides Freddie Freeman.

[SRB]

Post subject: Re: Kimbrel?

Posted: April 16, 2019, 4:56 PM Post

I'd easily give Kimbrel three years if the payroll space is there. This is a guy who deserves $80-100 million. We would be getting him at a bargain.

 

For most of 2020:

 

RHP Kimbrel

LHP Hader

RHP Knebel

RHP Jeffress

LHP Claudio

One of these players is not like the others... One of these players doesn't belong....

 

I'm assuming Good Claudio shows up

 

In an ideal world where they each match their 2017-2018 bests:

 

Kimbrel, 69.0 IP, 1.43 ERA, 1.42 FIP, 1.50 xFIP, 16.4 K/9, 1.8 BB/9

Hader, 81.1 IP, 2.43 ERA, 2.23 FIP, 2.05 xFIP, 15.8 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 29 GB%

Knebel, 76.0 IP, 1.78 ERA, 2.53 FIP, 2.97 xFIP, 14.9 K/9, 4.7 BB/9, 38 GB%

Jeffress, 76.2 IP, 1.29 ERA, 2.78 FIP, 2.86 xFIP, 10.5 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 56 GB%

Claudio, 82.2 IP, 2.50 ERA, 3.21 FIP, 3.30 xFIP, 6.1 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 67 GB%

 

And you could have at least two other legitimate back-end options with Bobby Wahl and one of Burnes/Peralta ending up in the bullpen.

[Brew crew 92]

With the Braves closer Arodys Vizcaíno out for the season, a Kimbrel reunion makes a lot of sense.

 

The Braves payroll is about $115M for 2019, but beyond that, they don't have any huge commitments besides Freddie Freeman.

 

Greed, with the corporate ownership group in Atlanta, seems to be keeping the inevitable from happening.

[pacopete4]

With the Braves closer Arodys Vizcaíno out for the season, a Kimbrel reunion makes a lot of sense.

 

The Braves payroll is about $115M for 2019, but beyond that, they don't have any huge commitments besides Freddie Freeman.

 

Greed, with the corporate ownership group in Atlanta, seems to be keeping the inevitable from happening.

 

 

[OnTheBlack]

Runs Allowed WAR (rank) Win Probability Added (rank) among relievers 2017-18

 

Kimbrel 5.7 (2nd) 8.13 (1st)

Knebel 4.6 (4th) 5.50 (5th)

Hader 4.5 (5th) 4.73 (8th)

Jeffress 4.4 (9th) 4.14 (13th)

Claudio 3.2 (20th) 4.09 (14th)

 

Closer than many probably think.

 

 

No, there's a FAR greater difference between the first four(3 especially IMO) and Claudio, and I don't care what a small sample size for a left-handed specialist says.

 

The other 4 pitchers are elite power arms who can get out both lefties and rights and can break a thin pane of glass with a baseball, not to mention almost all of Claudio's WAR comes from two years ago when he had a fluke year and put up a 2.8 WAR season. This also includes a year in which he posted a whip over 1.5.

 

It's not close at all regardless of what one stat driven primarily by one year says.

 

Also, when in tough spots, I'll take the guys who strike out 3 times as many people as Claudio does.

 

I used 2017-18 because that’s how long Hader has been in the league. If you go back to Claudio’s first season in 2016 he has pitched 197 innings (22nd among all relievers) in 173 games, so he is not a lefty specialist. He also ranks 20th in Win Probability Added & 26th in Runs Allowed WAR over that time frame.

 

So over a three year sample (aka not small) he has been a top 25ish reliever in all of baseball. I never said he was on the same level as the other guys, just closer than many probably think.

 

If I need to get outs in 2019 I’ll take Claudio over Jeffress, Kimbrel & Knebel at the present moment.

 

 

So you'll literally take him over 3 other pitchers who are not pitching? Not really all that high of a bar. I guess I'd probably take that a step further. I'd take him over Ben Sheets or Randy Johnson or any other person who has pitched, but currently isn't(though at the time of your post, Jeffress hadn't yet pitched, now that he has, I'd hope you'd at least take him off that list).

 

He has a +90 OPS in high leverage situations in his career. He's got a career OPS+ total of 99.

 

And he's DEFINITELY a left handed specialist on a team trying to win.

Vs Right Handers-.313/.358/.458

Vs Left Handers-.187/.219/.266

 

 

So HUGE difference in splits vs lefties and righties, well below average in high leverage situations, and most of his career spent on a poor team. Yeah, I think I'd take Kimbrel over him right now and I'll definitely take Jeffress over him and by a lot.

[OnTheBlack]

With the Braves closer Arodys Vizcaíno out for the season, a Kimbrel reunion makes a lot of sense.

 

The Braves payroll is about $115M for 2019, but beyond that, they don't have any huge commitments besides Freddie Freeman.

 

Greed, with the corporate ownership group in Atlanta, seems to be keeping the inevitable from happening.

 

 

 

 

Pretty much spot on. The Braves are a notoriously cheap team despite having a huge market as they probably have the largest regional fan base of any team in baseball.

 

I didn't even think there was a question that the Braves were a cheap organization. Do you debate this?

[BrewersSuperCollector]

Pretty much spot on. The Braves are a notoriously cheap team despite having a huge market as they probably have the largest regional fan base of any team in baseball.

 

I didn't even think there was a question that the Braves were a cheap organization. Do you debate this?

 

The Braves probably have the worst local broadcast deal in all of professional sports.

[Brew crew 92]

Pretty much spot on. The Braves are a notoriously cheap team despite having a huge market as they probably have the largest regional fan base of any team in baseball.

 

I didn't even think there was a question that the Braves were a cheap organization. Do you debate this?

 

The Braves probably have the worst local broadcast deal in all of professional sports.

 

Yes that’s correct.

But they also had a profit of 100 million last year and 49 million the year before.

 

Because of them being a public Corp they have to reveal more info.

 

Fangraphs has an interesting article on them & baseball owners in general, for those that haven’t read it just google fangraphs Atlanta braves open books.

[TURBO]

According to Jon Heyman of MLB Network, interested teams now believe that Craig Kimbrel would be willing to accept a three-year deal.

 

Kimbrel had been holding out for at least a five-year pact as of late March. There are glaring needs in bullpens around the major leagues and so offers really should be pouring in for the 30-year-old right-hander, who owns a career 1.91 ERA and 333 career saves, but there is still no clarity at all on where he might land. Heyman mentions the Braves, Brewers, Nationals, and Phillies as possible fits.

 

SOURCE: Jon Heyman on Twitter

Apr 18, 2019, 10:26 AM

[Madhawk23]

No way we get in on 3 years for Kimbrel, do we? I don't know - it just doesn't seem like a David Stearns type move. I could see us interested in a 1 year deal, but I just don't see us throwing out some 3 yr, 55M+ type deal for a reliever.

[TURBO]

3 years 36 Million, maybe, more than that, I'd guess NO!

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

David Meter (Kimbrel's agent): Hey Jon, Craig hasn't gotten a call from a team in weeks. Do you have any ideas how we can fabricate interest in him out of thin air?

 

Jon Heyman: Well, the Brewers show tepid interest in pretty much everyone, and they are a contender with bullpen issues. Why don't I throw out a tweet that they are showing interest?

 

David Meter: But David Stearns hasn't returned any of my calls since January when I told him Craig wanted $125 million for 5 years. He just started laughing while muttering something like, "If I were that crazy, I'd just call K-Rod again ..."

 

Jon Heyman: The Brewers never confirm or deny their interest in anyone. They are the perfect mark!

 

David Meter: OK, do it. Are you still fine with our customary .5% when Craig signs?

 

Jon Heyman: Deal! I'll get to work on my feature about how Albies' deal is great for the players.

[Eye Black]

3 years 36 Million, maybe, more than that, I'd guess NO!

I still refer to that exact deal as “the Aramis Ramirez”.

[DuWayne Steurer]

https://deadspin.com/dallas-keuchel-and-craig-kimbrel-are-haunting-the-baseb-1834124830

 

I think this is a good read (yes... it's Deadspin).

 

Warning, the author uses a little bit of NSFW language here and there.

 

Kind of a nuanced look at the Keuchel/Kimbrel situation

 

For the record, I'm against going after Kimbrel for anything more than 2 years. I know the guy is HOF worthy, but relievers are volatile as heck, and he's about to hit his decline phase. I'd not mind Keuchel on a one year deal. Just thought the article was worth sharing.

[jonescm128]

David Meter (Kimbrel's agent): Hey Jon, Craig hasn't gotten a call from a team in weeks. Do you have any ideas how we can fabricate interest in him out of thin air?

 

Jon Heyman: Well, the Brewers show tepid interest in pretty much everyone, and they are a contender with bullpen issues. Why don't I throw out a tweet that they are showing interest?

 

David Meter: But David Stearns hasn't returned any of my calls since January when I told him Craig wanted $125 million for 5 years. He just started laughing while muttering something like, "If I were that crazy, I'd just call K-Rod again ..."

 

Jon Heyman: The Brewers never confirm or deny their interest in anyone. They are the perfect mark!

 

David Meter: OK, do it. Are you still fine with our customary .5% when Craig signs?

 

Jon Heyman: Deal! I'll get to work on my feature about how Albies' deal is great for the players.

 

*standing ovation*

[Brew crew 92]

Surprised but Kimbrell has lowered his asking price rumored to be 3-years $45m.

 

Wade Davis > 3 @ 51

Zach Britton >3 @ 39

Craig Kimbrel > 3 @ 45

 

For those that that still don’t think we need to sign him, why? Money? Possible injury? Regression candidate?

 

Kimbrel’s never missed time due to injury, so I’d say that bodes well for the future. Regression? Hasn’t lost velo, but some point out walks up in the playoffs, so we’re knebel’s, he worked thru that. All pitchers go thru bad periods.

 

The money. I think we’ve waited him out long enough and the time is right for a deal. Backload if needed. Trade him in offseason or at next year’s deadline if needed.

 

This would be a great start towards building a pen to rival last year’s playoffs pen, which in my opinion is needed to win the central, and potentially win a title.

[JosephC]

Surprised but Kimbrell has lowered his asking price rumored to be 3-years $45m.

 

Wade Davis > 3 @ 51

Zach Britton >3 @ 39

Craig Kimbrel > 3 @ 45

 

For those that that still don’t think we need to sign him, why? Money? Possible injury? Regression candidate?

 

 

See post #185 on page 10.

 

How many losses would Kimbrel have turned into a win so far? IMO, last night possibly, and I say possibly, may have been the first one. And that would only be if Counsell would have pulled Hader in the 8th and inserted Kimbrel, which is very questionable speculation because Kimbrel has mostly been a traditional 1 inning closer and the Brewers did not have the lead when Hader gave up the home run.

 

The closer is completely meaningless if the pitching staff can't get the job done through the first 8 innings and so far the Brewer pitching staff has not gotten the job done through the first 8 innings. Pitchers like Keuchel and Gonzalez make much more sense for Milwaukee.

[Brew crew 92]

Surprised but Kimbrell has lowered his asking price rumored to be 3-years $45m.

 

Wade Davis > 3 @ 51

Zach Britton >3 @ 39

Craig Kimbrel > 3 @ 45

 

For those that that still don’t think we need to sign him, why? Money? Possible injury? Regression candidate?

 

 

See post #185 on page 10.

 

How many losses would Kimbrel have turned into a win so far? IMO, last night possibly, and I say possibly, may have been the first one. And that would only be if Counsell would have pulled Hader in the 8th and inserted Kimbrel, which is very questionable speculation because Kimbrel has mostly been a traditional 1 inning closer and the Brewers did not have the lead when Hader gave up the home run.

 

The closer is completely meaningless if the pitching staff can't get the job done through the first 8 innings and so far the Brewer pitching staff has not gotten the job done through the first 8 innings. Pitchers like Keuchel and Gonzalez make much more sense for Milwaukee.

 

In my opinion you’re ignoring how great and dominant a pitcher Kimbrel is. A potential future Hall of Fame best of all time reliever for under market value and you don’t want him because he’s A traditional one inning closer?

 

I’ll take KNOWING the game is OVER if the crew leading after 8.

 

Kimbrel is one piece to getting back our pen of dominance that we had last year, and with Hader we’d have the 2 MOST DOMINANT pen arms in all of baseball.

 

Over the coming months someone from down under will be worthy of bringing up that can also help the pen.

 

Then near or at the deadline a Soria type arm

 

Then we have our superpen back and maybe we can go win this thing.

[RollieTime]

 

Wade Davis > 3 @ 51

Zach Britton >3 @ 39

Craig Kimbrel > 3 @ 45

 

For those that that still don’t think we need to sign him, why? Money? Possible injury? Regression candidate?

 

 

See post #185 on page 10.

 

How many losses would Kimbrel have turned into a win so far? IMO, last night possibly, and I say possibly, may have been the first one. And that would only be if Counsell would have pulled Hader in the 8th and inserted Kimbrel, which is very questionable speculation because Kimbrel has mostly been a traditional 1 inning closer and the Brewers did not have the lead when Hader gave up the home run.

 

The closer is completely meaningless if the pitching staff can't get the job done through the first 8 innings and so far the Brewer pitching staff has not gotten the job done through the first 8 innings. Pitchers like Keuchel and Gonzalez make much more sense for Milwaukee.

 

In my opinion you’re ignoring how great and dominant a pitcher Kimbrel is. A potential future Hall of Fame best of all time reliever for under market value and you don’t want him because he’s A traditional one inning closer?

 

I’ll take KNOWING the game is OVER if the crew leading after 8.

 

Kimbrel is one piece to getting back our pen of dominance that we had last year, and with Hader we’d have the 2 MOST DOMINANT pen arms in all of baseball.

 

Over the coming months someone from down under will be worthy of bringing up that can also help the pen.

 

Then near or at the deadline a Soria type arm

 

Then we have our superpen back and maybe we can go win this thing.

 

People know how dominant Kimbrel is. If the offense isn’t scoring, he can’t be used. If we are frequently playing from behind, he won’t be used. The offense appears to be the big issue right now with very little production outside of a couple guys. A contract of 3/$45 million is a significant amount of money for a reliever. What if he continues to regress from last season’s results? Tying that money up on a reliever is a huge risk. I personally don’t see Stearns giving that kind of money to a relief pitcher. He seems to value hitters and views them as less of a risk and having a larger impact over the course of a season than a starter or relief pitcher.

 

Can he surprise us and sign Kimbrel? It’s possible, but highly unlikely. I would prefer to maintain financial flexibility going into the offseason than being tied down to an expensive reliever that has shown signs of regressing.

[Brew crew 92]

I just read rosenthal’s tweet from sat eve. Mentioning the brewers and Mets talking to kimbrel’s Camp, and the Mets being interested in signing kimbrel if he’s flexible on not having to pitch the 9th. Here’s to hoping he’s not, and gets the Mets out of the kimbrel sweepstakes.

 

I love this news! I hope it’s down to the braves and brewers.

 

The braves are cheap, I hope mark steps up!

This would be such a shot in the arm!

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I just read rosenthal’s tweet from sat eve. Mentioning the brewers and Mets talking to kimbrel’s Camp, and the Mets being interested in signing kimbrel if he’s flexible on not having to pitch the 9th. Here’s to hoping he’s not, and gets the Mets out of the kimbrel sweepstakes.

 

I love this news! I hope it’s down to the braves and brewers.

 

The braves are cheap, I hope mark steps up!

This would be such a shot in the arm!

 

I feel like Bill Murray on Groundhog Day.