Kimbrel?

[RockCoCougars]

Unreasonable demands early on (Wasn't he looking for 100 million?) have cost Kimbrel lots of money. He's overplayed his hand so far at this point, I think he'll be lucky to get eight figures for the rest of this season.

[JosephC]

According to ESPN the Brewers only have blown one save so far. That happened on April 1st, in the sixth inning, when Claudio gave up one run to turn a 3-2 Brewer lead into a tie game. The Brewers went on to win that game 4-3. Of the Brewers 10 wins, all have been by three runs or less. Hader picked up all those saves in early games but the last two wins have been finished out by Wilson and Guerra.

 

The Brewers don't need to the throwing 10+ million (1 year) at a rigid, one-inning pitcher, much less the 3 year, 45 million dollar deal that Kimbrel is likely looking for now (numbers are just speculation on my part).

 

Give me Keuchel instead any day of the week. Giving him 1 year, 20 million would be a far better investment than going 3 years, 45 million on Kimbrel. Although, truth be told, with a 10-5 record I'd rather sit on all remaining money and see what things are looking like in June. Just one injury could completely shift the primary need areas of the team.

[brewmann04]

Adding a starter like Dallas will help the Bullpen

[Jopal78]

I'm sure Kimbrel saw what happened to Greg Holland last year (signed a one year deal late with a contender, called up before being ready to pitch, struggled, removed as closer, subsequently released ended up signing a one year bargain basement deal for 2019) and is determined to avoid it.

 

He'll continue to hold out for a multi-year deal at a lesser price than he earlier sought. If it gets to a point where he has to take a one year deal in order to pitch in the major leagues in 2019, all 32 teams would be in on him (because non-contenders would simply flip him at the deadline for a prospect) and he will be able to control when he is ready to pitch and in what role.

 

Frankly, a three year deal with the Brewers shouldn't be out of the question. It probably would be hard to squeeze in another 13-15 million in payroll for 2019, but in 2020 Braun's decrease in pay almost equals Yelich's increase. They will clear $16 million in payroll when Chase Anderson and Eric Thames' club options for 2020 are declined. There's virtually no chance that the mutual options on Moustakas or Grandal are exercised and Chacin will also likely be gone, so there is plenty of payroll space in 2021 and beyond for a multi-year deal for Kimbrel, especially if the team intends to be in the hunt in the next few upcoming seasons.

[HiAndTight]

According to ESPN the Brewers only have blown one save so far. That happened on April 1st, in the sixth inning, when Claudio gave up one run to turn a 3-2 Brewer lead into a tie game. The Brewers went on to win that game 4-3. Of the Brewers 10 wins, all have been by three runs or less. Hader picked up all those saves in early games but the last two wins have been finished out by Wilson and Guerra.

 

The Brewers don't need to the throwing 10+ million (1 year) at a rigid, one-inning pitcher, much less the 3 year, 45 million dollar deal that Kimbrel is likely looking for now (numbers are just speculation on my part).

 

Give me Keuchel instead any day of the week. Giving him 1 year, 20 million would be a far better investment than going 3 years, 45 million on Kimbrel. Although, truth be told, with a 10-5 record I'd rather sit on all remaining money and see what things are looking like in June. Just one injury could completely shift the primary need areas of the team.

 

 

Since when have saves EVER been a good metric by which to evaluate a reliever, much less an entire pen?

 

How about the games where we were down a run and the pen came in and the other team blew it open? I'm also not sure what you mean by "rigid" pitcher, but not sure it's important.

 

 

Hate to break it to ya, but this has already happened. To the bullpen. That injury was Knebel.

 

 

But lets look at the rest of the team. Grandal, that'd be a big blow. Won 96 games last year with Pina.

1st base? I like Aggie, I think if he can just stay calm and not jump at pitches, he's gonna be more than fine, but we have lots of options if we need to replace him.

2nd? Guess we'd have to get by on Dubon, Hiura, Perez(probably in reverse order there) as well as several other guys in the minors, a few of whom would likely get the call before our top prospect.

 

SS-Well, Arca struggled all year last year, again, 96 wins. If he gets hurt, that'd sting, but light hitting, defensive SS's aren't hard to come by.

 

3rd base? We have Travis Shaw and then an older Travis Shaw already at 3rd.

 

OF? Yelich-That's a season changer and you're not going to be able to trade for or acquire someone to make up for him anyway. Same with Cain. We expect Braun to go down, so you have Gamel and then Tyrone Taylor, Corey Ray and about 30 corner OF'ers who come available at the deadline.

 

Point is, we're deep everywhere else. If we COULD get Kimbrel for 10 million, I think we'd be foolish not to. I highly doubt however Kimbrel would accept that.

 

 

He seems to be hanging on to the quickly outdated FA system.

[HiAndTight]

I'm sure Kimbrel saw what happened to Greg Holland last year (signed a one year deal late with a contender, called up before being ready to pitch, struggled, removed as closer, subsequently released ended up signing a one year bargain basement deal for 2019) and is determined to avoid it.

 

He'll continue to hold out for a multi-year deal at a lesser price than he earlier sought. If it gets to a point where he has to take a one year deal in order to pitch in the major leagues in 2019, all 32 teams would be in on him (because non-contenders would simply flip him at the deadline for a prospect) and he will be able to control when he is ready to pitch and in what role.

 

Frankly, a three year deal with the Brewers shouldn't be out of the question. It probably would be hard to squeeze in another 13-15 million in payroll for 2019, but in 2020 Braun's decrease in pay almost equals Yelich's increase. They will clear $16 million in payroll when Chase Anderson and Eric Thames' club options for 2020 are declined. There's virtually no chance that the mutual options on Moustakas or Grandal are exercised and Chacin will also likely be gone, so there is plenty of payroll space in 2021 and beyond for a multi-year deal for Kimbrel, especially if the team intends to be in the hunt in the next few upcoming seasons.

 

 

Well, he could avoid that by just not coming out and pitching right away. Hopefully the Brewers would demand he throw a few innings in AAA before he pitched for us.

 

But the three-year deal is a non-starter for me. The Brewers can build an incredible bullpen moving forward without wasting money on Craig Kimbrel for THREE years. I'm alright with it for one because of all the bad luck, but next year by the ASB we should have Wahl, Knebel, Jeffress, Hader, and who knows what young arms will be up and ready.

[Brew crew 92]

I'm sure Kimbrel saw what happened to Greg Holland last year (signed a one year deal late with a contender, called up before being ready to pitch, struggled, removed as closer, subsequently released ended up signing a one year bargain basement deal for 2019) and is determined to avoid it.

 

He'll continue to hold out for a multi-year deal at a lesser price than he earlier sought. If it gets to a point where he has to take a one year deal in order to pitch in the major leagues in 2019, all 32 teams would be in on him (because non-contenders would simply flip him at the deadline for a prospect) and he will be able to control when he is ready to pitch and in what role.

 

Frankly, a three year deal with the Brewers shouldn't be out of the question. It probably would be hard to squeeze in another 13-15 million in payroll for 2019, but in 2020 Braun's decrease in pay almost equals Yelich's increase. They will clear $16 million in payroll when Chase Anderson and Eric Thames' club options for 2020 are declined. There's virtually no chance that the mutual options on Moustakas or Grandal are exercised and Chacin will also likely be gone, so there is plenty of payroll space in 2021 and beyond for a multi-year deal for Kimbrel, especially if the team intends to be in the hunt in the next few upcoming seasons.

 

 

Well, he could avoid that by just not coming out and pitching right away. Hopefully the Brewers would demand he throw a few innings in AAA before he pitched for us.

 

But the three-year deal is a non-starter for me. The Brewers can build an incredible bullpen moving forward without wasting money on Craig Kimbrel for THREE years. I'm alright with it for one because of all the bad luck, but next year by the ASB we should have Wahl, Knebel, Jeffress, Hader, and who knows what young arms will be up and ready.

 

Agree, one year, not three. Probably not gonna happen so I’ve moved on. Wahl knebel jeffress Hader Rasmussen Guerra Claudio perdomo In my way to early mid season 2020 superpen prediction.

[HiAndTight]

Adding a starter like Dallas will help the Bullpen

 

 

Everyone says this with the idea in mind that we take the best starting pitching prospects we've developed in a long time and move one or more of them to the pen.

 

And then you have to hope that a soft tosser like Kuechel who gives up a ton of hits is going to just slide into your rotation.

[brewmann04]

we respectfully disagree which is fine we don't need a flamethrower just a winner who knows how to pitch. PS I am for all the young guys getting their starts but we should not pass on him if possible

[nate82]

Surprised but Kimbrell has lowered his asking price rumored to be 3-years $45m.

[Warning Track Power]

Would be a tough pill to swallow given he might only give you 2 1/2 seasons for $45 million but if he is anything close to what he has been, that pen looks infinitely better. If Jeffress turns out to be OK and Brewers can add Knebel in for the second half of 2020, that pen is scary good. A 6th through 9th of Hader, Claudio, Jeffress, Knebel and Kimbrel is pretty intimidating.

[clancyphile]

I'm sure Kimbrel saw what happened to Greg Holland last year (signed a one year deal late with a contender, called up before being ready to pitch, struggled, removed as closer, subsequently released ended up signing a one year bargain basement deal for 2019) and is determined to avoid it.

 

He'll continue to hold out for a multi-year deal at a lesser price than he earlier sought. If it gets to a point where he has to take a one year deal in order to pitch in the major leagues in 2019, all 32 teams would be in on him (because non-contenders would simply flip him at the deadline for a prospect) and he will be able to control when he is ready to pitch and in what role.

 

Frankly, a three year deal with the Brewers shouldn't be out of the question. It probably would be hard to squeeze in another 13-15 million in payroll for 2019, but in 2020 Braun's decrease in pay almost equals Yelich's increase. They will clear $16 million in payroll when Chase Anderson and Eric Thames' club options for 2020 are declined. There's virtually no chance that the mutual options on Moustakas or Grandal are exercised and Chacin will also likely be gone, so there is plenty of payroll space in 2021 and beyond for a multi-year deal for Kimbrel, especially if the team intends to be in the hunt in the next few upcoming seasons.

 

Thames has a player option, not a club option.

 

But yeah, a multi-year deal would make sense. Maybe 3 years, $36 million tops.

[And That]

Thames has a player option, not a club option.

Thames has a club option according to Cot's. https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league-central/milwaukee-brewers/

[MrTPlush]

I mean $15mil yearly and only three years.....I could see us being players at that if we are desperate. Though honestly Keuchel and then getting one of the young guys bumped to the pen is potentially way more efficient.

 

I think whoever signs Kimbrel will regret it...that's my hot take.

[SRB]

I'd easily give Kimbrel three years if the payroll space is there. This is a guy who deserves $80-100 million. We would be getting him at a bargain.

 

For most of 2020:

 

RHP Kimbrel

LHP Hader

RHP Knebel

RHP Jeffress

LHP Claudio

 

Yikes!

[xisxisxis]

Post subject: Re: Kimbrel?

Posted: April 16, 2019, 4:56 PM Post

I'd easily give Kimbrel three years if the payroll space is there. This is a guy who deserves $80-100 million. We would be getting him at a bargain.

 

For most of 2020:

 

RHP Kimbrel

LHP Hader

RHP Knebel

RHP Jeffress

LHP Claudio

One of these players is not like the others... One of these players doesn't belong....

[pacopete4]

It didn’t even need to be bolded lol

[sveumrules]

Runs Allowed WAR (rank) Win Probability Added (rank) among relievers 2017-18

 

Kimbrel 5.7 (2nd) 8.13 (1st)

Knebel 4.6 (4th) 5.50 (5th)

Hader 4.5 (5th) 4.73 (8th)

Jeffress 4.4 (9th) 4.14 (13th)

Claudio 3.2 (20th) 4.09 (14th)

 

Closer than many probably think.

[Brew crew 92]

I'd easily give Kimbrel three years if the payroll space is there. This is a guy who deserves $80-100 million. We would be getting him at a bargain.

 

For most of 2020:

 

RHP Kimbrel

LHP Hader

RHP Knebel

RHP Jeffress

LHP Claudio

 

Yikes!

 

If the latest reports are true, 3 @ 45, get it done. Backload if needed. 10-17-18 next year ALL teams getting xtra 9 mil from the new Fox deal, then the following year xtra from new espn & turner deal plus crew getting their NEW local tv increase.

 

Replaces knebel the rest of this year, and next.

 

Fits our window perfectly.

 

Don’t have to overpay with prospects at the trade deadline.

 

The makings of a bullpen that come playoff time could rival last year’s pen.

[tmwiese55]

If the price has come down that much I guess I'm intrigued due to our BP issues/injuries. Even as one who generally thinks Kimbrell is about to hit a wall due to his finish last year. And I'm guessing lots of teams feel the same way based on him not getting signed. But now that his price is reasonable it's a lot less risky. I still think I pass though. If his price is this low now though I just don't know how Boston doesn't pay it, if anything that's a tell tale sign here it's that Boston seemingly doesn't want him back. They must think he's cooked. Could be a spite thing at this point though so take that with a grain of salt.

[Brew crew 92]

If the price has come down that much I guess I'm intrigued due to our BP issues/injuries. Even as one who generally thinks Kimbrell is about to hit a wall due to his finish last year. And I'm guessing lots of teams feel the same way based on him not getting signed. But now that his price is reasonable it's a lot less risky. I still think I pass though. If his price is this low now though I just don't know how Boston doesn't pay it, if anything that's a tell tale sign here it's that Boston seemingly doesn't want him back. They must think he's cooked. Could be a spite thing at this point though so take that with a grain of salt.

 

Red Sox not gonna add the payroll, they are at max tax now.

[HiAndTight]

If the price has come down that much I guess I'm intrigued due to our BP issues/injuries. Even as one who generally thinks Kimbrell is about to hit a wall due to his finish last year. And I'm guessing lots of teams feel the same way based on him not getting signed. But now that his price is reasonable it's a lot less risky. I still think I pass though. If his price is this low now though I just don't know how Boston doesn't pay it, if anything that's a tell tale sign here it's that Boston seemingly doesn't want him back. They must think he's cooked. Could be a spite thing at this point though so take that with a grain of salt.

 

 

This is the same team that just re-signed Sale after he had concerns about his shoulder late last year and now has been awful this year with his velocity way down...so not sure I'd trust them when it comes to picking when a player is hitting a wall.

 

Still, even if Kimbrel is losing some of his stuff, he could lose 2-3 MPH off his fastball and still be a dominant reliever.

[tmwiese55]

Point is the same, they've seen him up close with the most info and seemingly are passing. Also, because they might have missed it one guy doesn't mean they were wrong on this one. Starter/reliever is different too. Sale was also dominant last year before the injury, would've won Cy Young. So they could view his as an injury that needs recovery while simultaneously viewing Kimbrel as just done due to him falling apart without an actual injury. Oh, and Boston has won two of the last five or six titles so I do think they know a bit about what they're doing.

 

IDK, I don't view Boston as ever maxed on payroll. Again, just saying if he is actually willing to take this little now. When it was 100 mil yea that's different. But essentially that's what I'm saying, they're that close to him and don't view him worth the money.

 

But again, if he has dropped this much I'm at least intrigued and curious if something can get worked out. Chances are he's way better than everyone we're running out besides Hader right now. But is that money best or most efficiently spent on a reliever is the question.

[HiAndTight]

If the price has come down that much I guess I'm intrigued due to our BP issues/injuries. Even as one who generally thinks Kimbrell is about to hit a wall due to his finish last year. And I'm guessing lots of teams feel the same way based on him not getting signed. But now that his price is reasonable it's a lot less risky. I still think I pass though. If his price is this low now though I just don't know how Boston doesn't pay it, if anything that's a tell tale sign here it's that Boston seemingly doesn't want him back. They must think he's cooked. Could be a spite thing at this point though so take that with a grain of salt.

 

Red Sox not gonna add the payroll, they are at max tax now.

 

 

They're one of the teams that have been pretty clear about that. Them, the Cubs and even the Yankees and Dodgers don't want to be repeat offenders with the luxury tax. If the Red Sox sign him, they will be over the tax again and as repeat offenders are paying 42 pct tax on his deal.

 

That's probably got more to do with why they'd let a reliever like him go.

[HiAndTight]

Runs Allowed WAR (rank) Win Probability Added (rank) among relievers 2017-18

 

Kimbrel 5.7 (2nd) 8.13 (1st)

Knebel 4.6 (4th) 5.50 (5th)

Hader 4.5 (5th) 4.73 (8th)

Jeffress 4.4 (9th) 4.14 (13th)

Claudio 3.2 (20th) 4.09 (14th)

 

Closer than many probably think.

 

 

No, there's a FAR greater difference between the first four(3 especially IMO) and Claudio, and I don't care what a small sample size for a left-handed specialist says.

 

The other 4 pitchers are elite power arms who can get out both lefties and rights and can break a thin pane of glass with a baseball, not to mention almost all of Claudio's WAR comes from two years ago when he had a fluke year and put up a 2.8 WAR season. This also includes a year in which he posted a whip over 1.5.

 

It's not close at all regardless of what one stat driven primarily by one year says.

 

Also, when in tough spots, I'll take the guys who strike out 3 times as many people as Claudio does.