Kimbrel?

[SRB]

Due respect to Tom H but he never has any inside info.

 

(This is not a knock on Tom, by the way. The rumor system in major sports these days is pretty straightforward: front offices rarely leak negotiations unless they are doing so specifically to leverage negotiations, and in that case they leak the stories to big national reporters rather than the obvious local beat writers. Most of rumors in general come from agents (and to a lesser extent players' camps) who have established relationships with a small handful of national writers. Ergo Tom is rarely an amazing source for any information that differs from the official front office line that they give out at press conferences.)

[homer]

Due respect to Tom H but he never has any inside info. Before this offseason began he was saying the Brewers didn't have money to add any significant free agents, and then went out and added Grandal and Moose.

 

They are at record payroll so it seems unlikely there is room for Kimbrel, but anybody on here could have told you that. The fact is we don't know how much the owners are willing to spend during this Yelich/Cain prime window, and the fact that these Kimbrel stories keep getting reported (with Stearns himself confirming them) tells me that they are trying to reach some sort of deal and the Brewers are now trying to push the price down.

 

In his defense I don't think he foresaw either of those guys signing one year deals. No one did.

[josh]

Due respect to Tom H but he never has any inside info.

 

The beat guys might as well be writing press releases. We all read their stuff anyway but then look elsewhere for insight or scoops. So it goes.

[Cirilloing]

It was most certainly a condescending tone, at least the first few lines. Why go there? I dont get that.

 

It's just bizarre.

 

And you know what? Yes, it is our money. We invest a ton of money into this team. What they dont get from selling tickets to US, and concessions and merch to US, they get from advertisers who also sell to US and pay THEM because of US.

 

It all comes from US.

 

I appreciate everything that Mark has brought to this team, but there is nothing wrong with us wanting it to get even better especially considering everything that we have contributed.

[pacopete4]

You also have to be realistic about it though. Just wanting to sign whoever for whatever it takes is just not realistic, especially for a team like the Brewers. If the right deals happen, MA has shown he's willing to pull the trigger. How any fan gets upset at him right now is beyond me.

[HiAndTight]

I don't believe a word of most of what Haudricourt says, I think there are better insiders on this board than him.

 

That said, that's pretty much the answer I would expect Mark A to give if he had had any contact at all with Kimbrel or his agent. Technically honest, satisfying to the asker, but non-committal.

 

Oh..thank you. I'm not saying I even disagree with his article, I just don't respect him as a Brewers beat writer.

 

The "it's not gonna happen," didn't come from anyone on the team, it just came from him saying so. In fact, if you read what Stearns says, he doesn't in any way dismiss it. He talks about having backup plans and how there have been some unforeseen developments.

[HiAndTight]

Due respect to Tom H but he never has any inside info. Before this offseason began he was saying the Brewers didn't have money to add any significant free agents, and then went out and added Grandal and Moose.

 

They are at record payroll so it seems unlikely there is room for Kimbrel, but anybody on here could have told you that. The fact is we don't know how much the owners are willing to spend during this Yelich/Cain prime window, and the fact that these Kimbrel stories keep getting reported (with Stearns himself confirming them) tells me that they are trying to reach some sort of deal and the Brewers are now trying to push the price down.

 

In his defense I don't think he foresaw either of those guys signing one year deals. No one did.

 

 

 

That's not the point. The point is he suggested we didn't have the money to spend and just basically writes how things unlikely to happen, probably won't happen.

 

As for Moose, I don't see anymore why people would be surprised by his deal. He's gone into free agency twice now hoping to get the big deal and he hasn't gotten it. I wouldn't have expected the Grandal deal, but I haven't expected any of the deals the Brewers have made.

 

 

I just don't place any value on Tom H's insight. I don't think there's some conspiracy for him to make us think we have less to spend than we do, I don't think he has a clue.

 

Also, what fans honestly expected us to sign BOTH Kuechel and Kimbrel?

 

His article IS written in an obnoxious way and you don't compare a MLB teams salaries to your own personal finances. Or...hey, maybe you do. I had an opportunity to invest in an apartment building because I knew the owner had died, his father owned several 20-50 unit buildings and he needed to sell. So maybe that's a more appropriate comparison. You don't spend on things you can't afford except on the rare occasion when several things line up.

[Cirilloing]

You also have to be realistic about it though. Just wanting to sign whoever for whatever it takes is just not realistic, especially for a team like the Brewers. If the right deals happen, MA has shown he's willing to pull the trigger. How any fan gets upset at him right now is beyond me.

 

It's not my job to be realistic. I don't get paid to crunch the numbers or know what their budget is. I just want the team to do well. I'm also not mad when they don't make a move. They can be realistic, i'll be hopeful.

[HiAndTight]

To fans that don’t think the brewers are the small market revenue team of the PAST. Saying fans want the team to sign Kuechel and Kimbrel then using bankruptcy to describe that type of spending. Yeah ok tom. He’s angry at twitter and brewerfan. Read it again.

 

So Tom Haudricourt is mad at Brewers Twitter and Brewerfan.net, so he's teamed up with Brewers Owner Mark Attanasio to put out a story to insult the portion of the teams fanbase who wants them to sign Kimbrel? That's a little bit out there ...

 

Didn’t literally get together with mark no, I think you know I was being facetious. But yeah he’s irritated at brewerfan. Can’t say I blame him, he is crushed a lot here. Read beginning of article and tell me there’s no condescension.

 

 

I don't like the guy, but this is kinda tin hat type thinking. It's more than just this site that wants Kimbrel.

 

I do agree the article was a bit annoying, but I highly doubt he gave this site a seconds thought when writing this article, he was probably just addressing the fact that the Brewers fans seem to be very eager and excited to hear about Kimbrel and he wrote his opinion.

 

One thing you don't need to keep in the back of your mind, even if we sign Kimbrel, there's no guarantee he's going to be the dominant pitcher than Knebel was MOST of the last two years or Jeffress was last year. He struggled in the 2nd half and wasn't great in the post-season last year.

 

We need to do something and we need to do it earlier in the season, but even if we sign Kimbrel, we're guaranteed to get the 1.20 ERA Kimbrel. And given that he likely won't be ready for a few weeks.....

 

 

I don't think there's a big concern he is like Holland either though. Had the Cards just waited on Holland, they'd have been fine as he was dominant at the end of the year.

 

 

After filtering through all of this, my take is the Brewers are still in discussions with Kimbrel, but they've probably given his team an idea of what they want to spend and they're waiting for them to get back to us if and when they're willing to take a shorter deal. I feel good that it's just the Brewers and the Braves in it. The Cubs pen is awful, but they don't seem likely to go up over the luxury tax, the Braves are not big spenders. I'd bet if we had the Braves revenues, we'd have a payroll that was right near the tax with Mark A.

 

I think the biggest threat to us is a team like Boston panicking a bit and bailing him out, but their pen has been fine so far. It's their starters that have been roughed up.

 

 

Anyway, we're 3-1 after a 4 game series vs the Cards while dealing with catastrophic bullpen issues. They just need to keep finding a way to get by until they add to this pen.

[JosephC]

Ignoring the Haudricourt article for now. Just have to wonder how much Kimbrel is costing himself each day if he sits out? If I was Attanasio and had the 1 year, 18 million offer on the table with three weeks left in spring training, I certainly wouldn't be willing to give that to him now. If it take him 3 weeks to get himself in shape and on an MLB mound, that would mean he misses the first 23 games of the MLB season. That's 14.2% of the season so the 18 million drops to 15.444 million. Already 2.5+ million left out there. Some desperate MLB owner might still pay him for a full season, but I sure as heck wouldn't. Absolutely crazy to think how much Kimbrel/Keuchel/Meter/Boras have potentially left on the table.

[adambr2]

Ignoring the Haudricourt article for now. Just have to wonder how much Kimbrel is costing himself each day if he sits out? If I was Attanasio and had the 1 year, 18 million offer on the table with three weeks left in spring training, I certainly wouldn't be willing to give that to him now. If it take him 3 weeks to get himself in shape and on an MLB mound, that would mean he misses the first 23 games of the MLB season. That's 14.2% of the season so the 18 million drops to 15.444 million. Already 2.5+ million left out there. Some desperate MLB owner might still pay him for a full season, but I sure as heck wouldn't. Absolutely crazy to think how much Kimbrel/Keuchel/Meter/Boras have potentially left on the table.

 

Typically deals signed after the start of the season are prorated for whatever portion of the season is left anyway, based on an original amount. But yeah you'd lose some additional value in time he needs to get ready.

[brewmann04]

It is crazy how these two guys have not signed and costing themselves a lot of money. I want Craig bad but think the brewers should not give into his crazy terms at this point. I can see both sides doing a one year deal with an option for year two.

[pacopete4]

I still think he's buying time with an injury. I'm probably wrong but it just doesn't make sense to miss a decent chunk of the season without collecting millions of dollars.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

If somebody with more money than the Brewers suffers a bad injury he could end up with a lot of money. My guess is at this point if he knows it's going to be 1-2 year deal he wants a TON of cash.

[coolhandluke121]

It is crazy how these two guys have not signed and costing themselves a lot of money. I want Craig bad but think the brewers should not give into his crazy terms at this point. I can see both sides doing a one year deal with an option for year two.

 

I'm not sure it's crazy. It's just a gamble. He's probably set for life anyway, so he can afford to play this high stakes game. It just depends on what it means to him. I don't like it either, but I could see an argument for wanting a contract that reflects his status as already one of the 3-5 best relief pitchers of all time, with perhaps a few more pretty good years left.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

This Kimbrel situation is exactly why we're headed for a strike. The Players Union is really sick of proven, veteran guys not getting "taken care of." I know that's outrageous to a bunch of peons like ourselves, but from their perspective you have to understand it. The owners pocket gobs of cash off the most productive years of guys like that, and they want their piece of the pie. It's time to pay the bill and suddenly no one wants him on a multi-year deal. They can't throw away money on guys because they feel warm and fuzzy about it, but just saying it's a complicated issue.

[KCBrewerfan34]

This Kimbrel situation is exactly why we're headed for a strike. The Players Union is really sick of proven, veteran guys not getting "taken care of." I know that's outrageous to a bunch of peons like ourselves, but from their perspective you have to understand it. The owners pocket gobs of cash off the most productive years of guys like that, and they want their piece of the pie. It's time to pay the bill and suddenly no one wants him on a multi-year deal. They can't throw away money on guys because they feel warm and fuzzy about it, but just saying it's a complicated issue.

 

 

A 30 year old demanding the richest contract at his position and 6 years to boot. I don't think they're striking because of this, both guys have WAY overplayed their value. This is probably their last contract (Keuchel and Kimbrel) and they want to make it count. if the agents cave they are going to look REALLY bad to the players. If the players are so upset why are so many guys signing extensions???

[Roderick]

It is crazy how these two guys have not signed and costing themselves a lot of money. I want Craig bad but think the brewers should not give into his crazy terms at this point. I can see both sides doing a one year deal with an option for year two.

 

I'm not sure it's crazy. It's just a gamble. He's probably set for life anyway, so he can afford to play this high stakes game. It just depends on what it means to him. I don't like it either, but I could see an argument for wanting a contract that reflects his status as already one of the 3-5 best relief pitchers of all time, with perhaps a few more pretty good years left.

 

If I had a ton of money in the bank, I would be in no rush to come to an agreement myself. If he has kids, more time with them. The season won't be as long. If he wants to play for a winner, he can see how each team looks this season. If he waits until after June draft, may get an uptick in what teams will offer as no longer will there be draft pick compensation tied to him.

[Fear The Chorizo]

The Players Union is really sick of proven, veteran guys not getting "taken care of."

 

Craig Kimbrel has made almost $60M as a pitcher over his career, which includes his initial 4 year, $42 Million dollar contract as he reached his initial FA period - this dude's been taken care of, and now he's looking for his last, best bite of the apple.

 

Dallas Keuchel has earned almost $32M as a pitcher prior to his initial FA period, which his Agent (Boras) is famous for trying to get as much as possible no matter what the market is. I'm guessing any shot he would've had at signing an initial contract extension after winning the Cy Young a few years ago was quashed in-house by how Boras operates. Even with that being said, he'd have been signed months ago had his contract demands been anywhere near what his actual market value is. I'm sure Boras was hoping the teams who missed out on signing Harper and Machado would've immediately pivoted and thrown big dollars at Keuchel. Unfortunately for him the biggest loser was the White Sox, who really don't have a roster that makes sense to add a veteran FA starter two after missing out on Machado. The Braves make a ton of sense for Keuchel, which is where I think he'll wind up (Padres also a darkhorse). I'd be very surprised if it winds up being a substantial contract. If I'm him, I try to maximize total dollars earned by getting more years at a lower AAV - not try to sign a 1 or 2 year deal at high AAV with hopes of getting a better contract in his next free agency period.

 

both of these guys have made a fortune playing baseball - the players' union better find better examples of veteran guys reaching free agency the first time after making peanuts via arbitration and basically getting nothing/minor league deal offers when their market is decidedly higher. The reason these two remain unsigned is their perceived value is nowhere near how the market views them.

[tmwiese55]

The Moustakas types are probably the more pressing example of the issue. Play for nothing (relatively of course) with the promise of FA, then you don't get the big guaranteed contract. That and your guys that hit MLB at older ages so they can't hit FA until 32/33.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Not every MLB player that has a 6+ year big league career deserves a golden parachute deal at the end of it...there's always younger, more talented players striving to get to the big leagues and take their job. That's just the reality - and good to marginal MLB veterans need to strike when the iron's hot and realize UFA isn't currently what it's historically been perceived to be for guys of their caliber.

 

The system as currently constructed is adjusting towards trying to pay players more $ at a younger age, regardless of how soon they break into the major leagues - using the Moose example is curious because of who his agent is, again...

 

The approach of taking arbitration all the way to free agency is not the way to maximize every player's earning potential -and it actually seems to be a bad idea for even the most talented players, particularly if their parent club has at least modestly deep financial pockets

[tmwiese55]

Oh I totally agree. Just that those scenarios are the crux of what they need to correct to get them paid more earlier or to let them hit FA sooner. Not guys that put away 35-50 mil before hitting FA the first time like these two guys. What you just said is basically why so many guys just locked in their money now with extensions rather than this promised golden parachute. They've adjusted, and should. A guy like Moose got caught in the middle. He should've signed an extension with KC like 4 years ago to lock in 50 mil. But back then everyone though they were still getting 100 mil in FA.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Guys, again, I understand he's made a lot of money relative to you or I. That's not my point. But this is the one of the big drivers of the upcoming strike. Pat Neshek says it in the article in the main forum. I'm not saying they deserve golden parachutes nor do I miss the point that they're all set for life. It doesn't matter - the fact is they still feel taken advantage of. Whether it's ridiculous or not, it is what they think. And I do see their POV, when they all of the sudden can't get a contract yet they lined their owners pocket for their entire 20s.

[JohnBriggs12]

It's one thing to talk strike, it's quite another to get a majority of players (and their wives) to agree to surrender tens of thousands of dollars on the 1st and 15th of every month or get rookies and marginal players who finally are collecting big league checks (and may not for very long) to give them up after scraping by as minor leaguers for so long. With all that at stake for both owners and players, I'm confident they'll tweak the present system enough to avoid a strike. Talking about it two years in advance as if it's inevitable is silly.

[ewitkows]

With all the extensions and the 2 big FA getting $300M+ the players aren't going to have much of leg to stand on for a strike. MLB is starting to pay younger guys who are performing and Kinbrel got caught in the transition. He zigged when e should have zagged, it's not the owners fault.