2019 Minor League Roster Forecast

[And That]

In honor of position player reporting day for minor league camp, here are my 2019 minor league roster forecasts.

 

First, a link to the "Way Too Early" forecast from September. Almost six months ago already, holy smokes.

 

The system clearly shows its pitching strength throughout. Look at that AAA staff for exhibit A, and then look at everyone who did not make the A-ball staff for exhibit B. The Brewers are turning into a pitching development machine with their "create-a-prospect" approach to taking pitchers with interesting and non-standard skillsets and making them into usable pieces (at least), at the highest level. Without regard to the offense in the minor league, the pitching depth and breadth the system possesses should itself prove that this is not a bottom tier farm system in the game. It's just not. I have seen some really bad Brewers farm systems. Legitimately bottom five in the game. This is not one of them, in large part due to the mass of quality pitchers present.

 

Indeed the offensive upside in the minors lags behind the pitching as a whole. The Biloxi hitters in general and the Carolina infield specifically are not up to par in terms of prospective MLB talent. That said, most of the high-end prospects are in AAA and make the system better as a whole due to their proximity to the big leagues. I'm also optimistic about a number of players in A-ball and below. The Brewers' preference for drafting high schoolers coupled with their increased presence in Latin America has given them a solid base of teenage talent that should begin bubbling into full-season ball in 2019.

 

There are a number of players who could slide up or down a level without any argument from me. I just picked a level for every active roster player and went with it.

 

Some pitchers listed as relievers could end up being piggy-back starters. I limited each team to five starters.

 

The "other considerations" guys tend to be lower-priority prospects than the players listed on the team roster forecasts. Except for the A-ball roster, where there are just more players than there is space. The Brewers could field about 2 more A-ball teams with all the pitchers they currently have.

 

* is for left-handed hitters and ^ is for switch hitters.

 

There are a number of players who are currently injured included below, but for the most part, they were included in the "other considerations" parts. I used the Brewers-standard 13 pitcher roster alignment.

 

MLB

C: Yasmani Grandal^, Manny Pina

INF: Jesus Aguilar, Orlando Arcia, Mike Moustakas*, Hernan Perez, Travis Shaw*, Eric Thames*

OF: Ryan Braun, Lorenzo Cain, Ben Gamel*, Christian Yelich*

Other offensive considerations: Erik Kratz ©, Tyler Saladino (INF), Cory Spangenberg* (INF)

 

SP: Chase Anderson, Corbin Burnes, Jhoulys Chacin, Zach Davies, Brandon Woodruff

RP: Matt Albers, Jacob Barnes, Alex Claudio*, Junior Guerra, Josh Hader*, Jeremy Jeffress, Corey Knebel, Taylor Williams

Other pitching considerations: Jay Jackson (RP), Jimmy Nelson (SP), Freddy Peralta (SP), Jake Petricka (RP), Josh Tomlin (SP), Aaron Wilkerson (SP)

 

AAA

C: Tuffy Gosewich, Jacob Nottingham

INF: Mauricio Dubon, Lucas Erceg*, Jake Hager, Keston Hiura, Nate Orf, Tyler Saladino, Cory Spangenberg*

OF: Corey Ray*, Troy Stokes Jr., Tyrone Taylor

Other offensive considerations: Jake Gatewood (INF), Erik Kratz ©, Brett Lawrie (INF)

 

SP: Zack Brown, Jimmy Nelson, Freddy Peralta, Josh Tomlin, Aaron Wilkerson

RP: Tristan Archer, Bubba Derby, Deolis Guerra, Adrian Houser, Jay Jackson, Jake Petricka, Miguel Sanchez, Burch Smith

Other pitching considerations: Nate Griep (RP), Jon Olczak (RP), Cody Ponce (SP/RP), Danny Reynolds (RP), Trey Supak (SP)

 

AA

C: Skyler Ewing, Max McDowell

INF: Blake Allemand^, Luis Aviles Jr., Bruce Caldwell*, Patrick Leonard, Tucker Neuhaus*, Wes Wilson

OF: Ryan Aguilar*, Trent Grisham*, Cooper Hummel^, Dillon Thomas*

Other offensive considerations: Rob Henry (OF), Pat McInerney (1B), Nate Rodriguez ©, Robie Rojas ©, Nick Roscetti (INF)

 

SP: Conor Harber, Tom Jankins, Cam Roegner*, Trey Supak, Braden Webb

RP: Luke Barker, Marcos Diplan, Nate Griep, Nate Kirby*, Jon Olczak, Angel Perdomo*, Cody Ponce, Danny Reynolds

Other pitching considerations: Rodrigo Benoit (RP), Alec Bettinger (SP), Phil Bickford (RP), Dan Brown* (RP), Nattino Diplan (RP), Preston Gainey (RP), Alec Kenilvort (RP), Brad Kuntz* (RP), Christian Meister (RP), Jorge Ortega (SP), Wuilder Rodriguez (RP), Tyler Spurlin (RP), Josh Uhen (RP), Devin Williams (SP)

 

A+

C: Mario Feliciano, Payton Henry

INF: Dallas Carroll, Devin Hairston, Pat McInerney, Trever Morrison*, Nick Roscetti, Eddie Silva

OF: Zach Clark, Rob Henry, Tristen Lutz, Joantgel Segovia

Other offensive considerations: Jay Feliciano (OF), Connor McVey (INF), Nate Rodriguez ©, Robie Rojas ©, Brice Turang* (INF)

 

SP: Clayton Andrews*, Aaron Ashby*, Alec Bettinger, Dylan File, Bowden Francis

RP: Cody Beckman*, Rodrigo Benoit, Phil Bickford, Dan Brown*, Nattino Diplan, J.T. Hintzen, Alec Kenilvort, Devin Williams

Other pitching considerations: Sal Biasi (RP), Jake Drossner* (SP), Chris Dula (RP), Gabe Friese (RP), Tyler Gillies (RP), Matt Hardy (RP), Carlos Herrera (RP), Nelson Hernandez (SP), Adam Hill (SP), Robbie Hitt (RP), Joey Matulovich (SP), Michael Mediavilla* (RP), Christian Meister (RP), Drake Owenby* (SP), Michael Petersen (RP), Drew Rasmussen (RP), Wilfred Salaman* (SP), Peter Strzelecki (RP), Scott Sunitsch* (SP), Christian Taugner (SP), Christian Trent* (SP)

 

A

C: Alexander Alvarez, David Fry

INF: Yeison Coca^, Gabriel Garcia, Julio Garcia^, Korry Howell, Chad McClanahan*, Brice Turang*

OF: Pablo Abreu, LG Castillo, Jesus Lujano*, Je'Von Ward*

Other offensive considerations: Luis Avila (INF), Jeyner Baez ©, Micah Bello (OF), Brent Diaz ©, Larry Ernesto (OF), Jay Feliciano (OF), Joe Gray (OF), Alex Hall ©, Andres Melendez ©, Charlie Meyer ©, Connor McVey (INF), Nic Pierre (OF), Antonio Pinero (INF), Kekai Rios ©, Carlos Rodriguez (OF), Edwin Sano (INF), Jose Sibrian ©, Bryan Torres ©

 

SP: Nelson Hernandez, Adam Hill, Joey Matulovich, Scott Sunitsch*, Christian Taugner

RP: Sal Biasi, Carlos Herrera, Robbie Hitt, Michael Mediavilla*, Michael Petersen, Drew Rasmussen, Wilfred Salaman*, Peter Strzelecki

Other pitching considerations: Freisis Adames (SP), Jose Alberro* (RP), Jesus Brea (RP), Tate Budnick (RP), Justin Bullock (SP), Victor Castaneda (SP), Harold Chirino (SP), Chris Dula (RP), Gabe Friese (RP), Logan Gillaspie (RP), Tyler Gillies (RP), Chris Hall (RP), Matt Hardy (RP), Justin Jarvis (SP), Max Lazar (SP), Caden Lemons (SP), Blake Lillis* (SP), Carlos Luna (SP), Christian Meister (RP), Jenri Montas (RP), Brendan Murphy* (SP), Joel Pinto (SP), Jayson Rose (SP), Austin Rubick (RP), Brady Schanuel (RP), Matt Smith (RP), Renny Tolentino (RP), Tyler Tungate (RP), Michele Vassalotti (SP), Andrew Vernon (RP), Nash Walters (SP), Chad Whitmer (RP), Noah Zavolas (RP), Lun Zhao (SP)

[82brewcrew82]

Observations:

 

1) The Biloxi and Carolina offenses are not very inspiring outside of a couple of individual performers

2) The pitching staffs are full of interesting pieces at pretty much every level.

3) If the majority of these pitchers are healthy, there are going to be some really difficult decisions with regard to who starts and who relieves

4) Miguel Sanchez might be the most underrated arm in the upper minors in terms of potential major league impact this year.

5) Nitpick #1 but I think one of Feliciano or Henry starts in Wisconsin or Feliciano is due for a position change

6) Nitpick #2, I think Diplan will be in the Biloxi rotation over Harber. They seem to use Harber as more of a swing pitcher

7) There is going to be a whole lot of talented players on the short season teams

[brewmann04]

Question the crew now views Kirby as a reliever?

[clancyphile]

I think Grisham is going to break out this year. So far, in MLB spring training games, he is hitting .294 with a couple of jacks...

 

Ryan Aguilar also has me very intrigued.

[CheeseheadInQC]

Observations:

 

1) The Biloxi and Carolina offenses are not very inspiring outside of a couple of individual performers

2) The pitching staffs are full of interesting pieces at pretty much every level.

3) If the majority of these pitchers are healthy, there are going to be some really difficult decisions with regard to who starts and who relieves

4) Miguel Sanchez might be the most underrated arm in the upper minors in terms of potential major league impact this year.

5) Nitpick #1 but I think one of Feliciano or Henry starts in Wisconsin or Feliciano is due for a position change

6) Nitpick #2, I think Diplan will be in the Biloxi rotation over Harber. They seem to use Harber as more of a swing pitcher

7) There is going to be a whole lot of talented players on the short season teams

 

I'm not sure they do split the catchers up. There are plenty of DH at bats available in Carolina, especially given that there isn't exactly a crunch at any other position, and I'm guessing they'll give Fry at least as many catching chances in A-ball as Harrison got early last season in order to see if the experiment is going to work. Best case scenario: One of them plays well enough to earn a AA spot for the second half.

 

I'm also think it is very feasible Diplan ends up as a reliever this season. If they believe he'll end up in the bullpen eventually, they might just make the switch now to try to see how his stuff plays (The options are ticking away). Or they might keep him in the rotation in order to give him more innings to work on things. He, Kirby and Andrews are probably the three most interesting starter/reliever calls for the top three levels of the minors this season.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Observations:

 

1) The Biloxi and Carolina offenses are not very inspiring outside of a couple of individual performers

2) The pitching staffs are full of interesting pieces at pretty much every level.

3) If the majority of these pitchers are healthy, there are going to be some really difficult decisions with regard to who starts and who relieves

4) Miguel Sanchez might be the most underrated arm in the upper minors in terms of potential major league impact this year.

5) Nitpick #1 but I think one of Feliciano or Henry starts in Wisconsin or Feliciano is due for a position change

6) Nitpick #2, I think Diplan will be in the Biloxi rotation over Harber. They seem to use Harber as more of a swing pitcher

7) There is going to be a whole lot of talented players on the short season teams

 

I agree with you on Sanchez. His arm is absolutely electric. He may need for seasoning, but he's got late-inning power relief arm written all over him. Another one of those guys who has seemingly come out of nowhere and looks like he's going to make a major impact.

[Brew crew 92]

Observations:

 

1) The Biloxi and Carolina offenses are not very inspiring outside of a couple of individual performers

2) The pitching staffs are full of interesting pieces at pretty much every level.

3) If the majority of these pitchers are healthy, there are going to be some really difficult decisions with regard to who starts and who relieves

4) Miguel Sanchez might be the most underrated arm in the upper minors in terms of potential major league impact this year.

5) Nitpick #1 but I think one of Feliciano or Henry starts in Wisconsin or Feliciano is due for a position change

6) Nitpick #2, I think Diplan will be in the Biloxi rotation over Harber. They seem to use Harber as more of a swing pitcher

7) There is going to be a whole lot of talented players on the short season teams

 

I agree with you on Sanchez. His arm is absolutely electric. He may need for seasoning, but he's got late-inning power relief arm written all over him. Another one of those guys who has seemingly come out of nowhere and looks like he's going to make a major impact.

 

Sanchez,Webb,Brown,perdomo hopin one or more can Help the big club out of the pen this year.

[CheeseheadInQC]

The more I look at it, the more I wonder if Erceg starting in AA might be best for all involved. He gets a chance to build up success at that level while playing every day and the Brewers alleviate some of the playing time conundrum caused by having six position players on the 40-man plus a couple of top prospects not on it on the same roster. He can still log a half-season-plus at AAA even if he doesn't start there, and chances are injuries, attrition or performance could ease any playing time issues by then.

 

I know given the versatility of a lot of the guys, you could probably have eight non-catchers log starter equivalent time if you don't care about Orf and whomever fills the other bench spot getting much time, but, when couple with Erceg's struggles last year, I wonder if this isn't a more natural fit.

[CheeseheadInQC]

I know it probably means nothing, but two things have stuck out to me with the minor league spring training lineups:

 

1. The Brewers seem to be keeping the presumed Timber Rattler core mostly together in Wisconsin, with Fry, McClanahan, Coca, Turang, Abreu and Castillo all getting at least three spring starts at A thus far with only a stray A+ start here or there for any of them.

 

2. The seventh player who can claim that is YongKang Kou.

 

Once again, it probably means nothing, and spring lineups don't get predictive until right before the season starts, but I think that would be about as big of a shocker as I can remember if he starts out in A ball.

[KeithStone53151]

I remember seeing in a brewer PD report that Caden Lemons had a good outing this spring. Anyone else catch any more recent info on him, and if he'll maybe open in Appleton? Also any word on Brendan Murphy? I wonder if he's finally over that lat strain or whatever that he suffered a year and a half ago.

[Mass Haas]

Any word on Brendan Murphy? I wonder if he's finally over that lat strain or whatever that he suffered a year and a half ago.

 

Check out the 2nd paragraph in this post. Not good news.

[JohnBriggs12]

I have to think Nate Griep makes the San Antonio roster. The guy has 87 saves in last 3 seasons, looked good in big league games this spring and the major league roster is down two late inning relievers. At some point this season, he's a likely candidate for time in the Brewer pen.

[CheeseheadInQC]

Now that the rosters are out it is interesting to look back. It's remarkable how different the hitting and pitching decisions were. On the hitting side, there were really no surprises, with the biggest decisions seeming to be one that I was one of the few who thought was a tossup (Erceg) and them deciding not to do anything bold at Wisconsin (none of Gray, Bello, Rodriguez, Ernesto or Howell skipped Colorado Springs).

 

On the pitching side you had a surprising cut (Harber), a conservative approach to some of the top prospects (Supak at Biloxi, Ashby at Wisconsin), doing something bold at Wisconsin (Olson) and a veritable who's who of the also receiving votes category from the board's prospect poll not on any roster (Kirby, Ponce, Roegner, Andrews, Bickford, Rasmussen, Matulovich, Lemons).