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2019 NFL Free Agency/A Busy Day for Green Bay


Ron Robinsons Beard
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That makes way more sense than 4/20. There's no way he was that cheap.

 

yeah that was way off

 

4/$37 on a front-loaded deal ($21 million guaranteed) is still a bargain for a front-line safety. Compared to the deal Collins signed yesterday, this looks like an absolute steal.

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yes Amos deal is still much better value than Collins deal.
"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006
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So Billy Turner is gettin 7 per, Amos is getting just over 9 per, and Preston Smith is getting 13 per, and I haven't seen numbers on the first Smith. How much cap space did we have to work with? I feel like we are going to blow the top off the cap real quick...

 

Even with dropping Perry, they had about $37 million under the cap. So yeah ... I'm sure the final numbers on these guys will be lower than what is getting out right now (agents tend to inflate the numbers early on), but they gotta be pretty much right up against it now.

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So Billy Turner is gettin 7 per, Amos is getting just over 9 per, and Preston Smith is getting 13 per, and I haven't seen numbers on the first Smith. How much cap space did we have to work with? I feel like we are going to blow the top off the cap real quick...

 

We would need to know exact numbers for the 1st year of these contracts. Could be 1st year is less than the 2nd year of some/all of these deals. Not WAY less, but maybe $1MM each or so, saves let's say $5MM off this year's cap. The players would be fine with that, since they get the whole SB up front anyhow.

 

Hey...there's my OL I wanted...perfect!!!

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If it wasn't obvious, they are going with youth that hopefully still hasn't peaked. None of these guys are players who've topped out yet. Obviously that may not be true, but that's at least the projection.

 

All of these are very "Patriots-like" moves. Identify the underrated guys who fit your scheme, are durable and are yet to hit their prime, and pounce. It isn't going to make the casual fan who is looking for big "name" signings (Landon Collins, Matthieu, Earl Thomas, Dee Ford, Justin Houston) happy, but this is how you build a contender. Look for them to pounce on some of the "name" guys later in the bargain bin.

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If it wasn't obvious, they are going with youth that hopefully still hasn't peaked. None of these guys are players who've topped out yet. Obviously that may not be true, but that's at least the projection.

 

I'm not super knowledgeable on Packers, but I feel like we theoretically plugged our biggest holes today. We're clearly going to be sticking with our young receivers plus Davante, unless of course we target one in the draft. I also feel like we could use an inside linebacker, maybe do that in the draft? I'm also expecting us to draft a more physical tight end and probably another corner.

 

Regarding Perry, I'm not sure how much cap space we saved cutting him. I don't think it's all that much actually.

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I've wanted Bulaga out for a while, so I'd love that.

 

Perry was a $14mm cap value each of next three years, but $11mm in dead money. So it freed up about $3mm this year.

 

The thing with Perry is, is it really dead money if the guy can't even stay on the field? I'd say no, it's more like a sunk cost.

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People wanted action and they got action. It will be very interesting to see how these new players fit.
"This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
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If the Amos deal is 21 million over the first two seasons....I'd guess that would be something like a 10 million dollar signing bonus, 4 million in year one made up of a combination of base salary and roster bonuses, and 7 million in year two made up of a combination of base salary and roster bonuses. So pro-rating that signing bonus over 4 years, Amos cap hit in 2019 would be 6.5 million.

 

Just illustrating that the majority of year one "actual money" is put into a signing bonus that gets spread out over the length of the contract. Amos is getting 9.25 million per year on average, but his year one cap number will probably only be about 70% (or even less) of the average value. That likely goes for all of the free agents the Packers may sign. The Packers might already be up to 45 million in average annual values on these players, but there is a really good chance the 2019 cap numbers on these players will only be in the range of 27 to 31 million when they are all added up.

 

I always thought Billy Turner was a really mediocre player. Will be interested to hear McGinn's take on him. Really like all the other moves the Packers have made. Seems to have opened the door up for a Noah Fant pick at #12.

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From what was reported the Turner and Amos deals are really front loaded in year 1. If I remember right the Rodgers deal was absorbed a lot last year and this year. If we somehow manage to stay under the cap this year, we should actually be in pretty good shape moving forward with the cap.
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I went from pretty meh on this team to wanting to see what they get in the draft in a matter of hours. No guarantee of success by any stretch, but I can't see Rodgers struggling as much as he has forever. Brewers just starting up, the Bucks with the best record in the NBA and reason to think GB can get back to the playoffs. Fun time.
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This is exactly how to utilize free agency - to plug holes. Now you can draft best player available.
"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006
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If the Amos deal is 21 million over the first two seasons....I'd guess that would be something like a 10 million dollar signing bonus, 4 million in year one made up of a combination of base salary and roster bonuses, and 7 million in year two made up of a combination of base salary and roster bonuses. So pro-rating that signing bonus over 4 years, Amos cap hit in 2019 would be 6.5 million.

 

Just illustrating that the majority of year one "actual money" is put into a signing bonus that gets spread out over the length of the contract. Amos is getting 9.25 million per year on average, but his year one cap number will probably only be about 70% (or even less) of the average value. That likely goes for all of the free agents the Packers may sign. The Packers might already be up to 45 million in average annual values on these players, but there is a really good chance the 2019 cap numbers on these players will only be in the range of 27 to 31 million when they are all added up.

 

I always thought Billy Turner was a really mediocre player. Will be interested to hear McGinn's take on him. Really like all the other moves the Packers have made. Seems to have opened the door up for a Noah Fant pick at #12.

 

Turner is weird to me as well. But OL play all over the league is poor and comes at a premium. Especially on guys that can play multiple positions. I do know the new staff has changed what they're looking for in their OL. They probably see something specific in him that we don't. He has progressed a lot since being a total flop in Miami.

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Seems to have opened the door up for a Noah Fant pick at #12.

 

After suffering through Finley, Richard Rodgers and Graham, I am so done with TEs who can't block. I am 100% on the TJ Hockenson bandwagon. Fant is one hell of an athlete, and he can run like the wind, but he strikes me as just another oversized wideout.

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Rough numbers, after Perry cut they're at $39MM cap space. (Not including all these signings of course.) They can still find $17MM in cap space between Bulaga, Tramon Williams, Graham. Not that they should/will cut all 3- just the flexibility they have.

 

If the avg cap hit for these 4 players signed is, let's say $8MM, it brings them down to $8MM left in cap room, but another $17MM to play with. So, still room to sign another FA- or even 2 if they're players farther down the food chain. That would still leave them enough to pay the rookies from this year's draft.

 

As I said earlier, we need confirmation on exactly how these deals are structured though. This stuff gets miss-reported all the time because most reporters don't understand SB, cap hit, etc.

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