2019 NFL Free Agency/A Busy Day for Green Bay

[LouisEly]

I really hope the rumors of the Packers keeping Graham are not true and they dump him, just not worth the guaranteed money they have to give him and think he is a liability as a WR or TE. Money can be better spent actually getting a good tight end or WR.

Cutting Graham would only free up $1.67M in cap space. He has $9M in salary + roster/workout bonus in 2019, but would take a $7.33M cap hit by releasing him. You won't get equivalent talent for $1.67M.

[brwrsfan]

Agreed. Even if Graham is a shell of his former self, he's still worth way more than 1.67 million, especially given the insane contracts given out so far in FA. He's probably not worth 9 million or close to it, but when you look at those numbers, it makes way more sense to keep him than release him at this point.

[FVBrewerFan]

This thread should be Packer non-moves...not Packer moves.

 

They'll make moves. Too many holes, and too much money available not to. It's a matter of who and when, not if.

 

Brian G knows the big names move fast. We'll find out soon if he's an early Ron Wolf or late TT. His first draft was fine, but this is his first big test.

[HiAndTight]

A month or two ago, I read a lot about signing Anthony Barr as an OLB. He wouldn't be terribly expensive compared to other OLBs and a decent chance to be a breakout candidate.

 

But I'd see them signing one OLB and drafting another. Could do the same at Safety.

 

 

I've been a HUGE fan of the idea of signing Barr for the last couple years. He's just such a poor fit in Zimmer's D and only his athletic abiliity have kept him from struggling, but coming out of the draft, he was talked about as a potential elite pass rusher in a 3-4 as an OLB'er. I remember reading an article 2 or 3 years ago about how he was only rushing the passer on 19 pct of passing downs(basically, not playing to his strength).

 

He could be had for less than 10 million per year and given how much Pettine likes his OLB'ers to cover, you know he can do that well.

 

Wouldn't have minded Collins, but obviously not at that number. I'm sure Earl Thomas is going to Dallas given how he

has been talking about it since he had 2 years left in Seattle.

 

I wouldn't mind seeing the Honey Badger in Green Bay. He had yet another productive year in Houston last year and he can excel at so many things. And he's a pittance next to a guy like Landon Collins who's not great in coverage, but great in the box.

[LouisEly]

Adam Humphries reportedly to the Titans, 4/$36M. That's about what I was figuring. He's from South Carolina and went to Clemson, so maybe he wanted to stay in the southeast.

 

And apparently DeSean Jackson will be traded back to the Eagles, essentially for nothing (a swap of 6th and 7th round picks).

 

Kenny Vaccaro re-ups with Tennessee.

 

A lot of my prospective Packers moves are not materializing.

[HiAndTight]

A month or two ago, I read a lot about signing Anthony Barr as an OLB. He wouldn't be terribly expensive compared to other OLBs and a decent chance to be a breakout candidate.

 

But I'd see them signing one OLB and drafting another. Could do the same at Safety.

 

Andy Herman at CheeseheadTV did some excellent film review of Barr. Andy is a must-follow on Twitter (@sconniesports).

 

Is it possible that a team will target Barr as an Edge? Sure, and he will likely be more affordable than the top-tier guys. But as Andy pointed out, his career sack numbers leave something to be desired:

 

In five years, he has 13.5 career sacks which came on 14 plays:

* 10 of those sacks he was unblocked or untouched

* 2 sacks came by beating a RB one-on-one

* 1 sack came when Philip Rivers held the ball to long and walked right back into Barr, who was blocked

* 1 sack came after the guard stumbled out of his stance so Barr had a straight shot at the QB

 

That's... not impressive. Basically, he has NEVER beaten an offensive lineman straight-up for a sack. I don't know how often he was asked to blitz as an OLB in a 4-3, however.

 

Andy's full breakdown is here: https://cheeseheadtv.com/blog/film-review-prospective-free-agent-anthony-barr-507

 

 

All of this is moot as he was used as a 4-3 backer who's was rarely asked to blitz.

 

And how far is this guy going out of his way? One of the sacks was "because the guard stumbled?" Really? C'mon. Just say you don't like him.

 

If he told me the number of pressures he got relative to the meager number of times he rushed the QB, that'd mean something to me. But he was almost never asked to rush the passer and when he was, it was usually one of Zimmer's most common defensive playcalls where he blitzes his LB'ers up both A gaps.

 

I dont' see an "excellant" review of Barr as a pass rusher here, I see him using sacks and sacks alone(almost like using RBI's) and leaving out a lot of pertinent information like how often he won vs the tackle(beating him in 2.5 seconds, not getting a sack vs one), how many pressures, how many QB hits...and again, stack it all up against how often he was asked to rush the passer.

 

This guy was talked about like he was a Mack like talent coming out of college. Now at the time, I doubt anyone realized how good Mack was, but many initially thought he could be a versatile and elite pass rusher.

 

But using his sack numbers means as much to me as using Blake's sack numbers from last year. Most were ublocked and irrelevant to the discussion of how good he can be as an OLB'er. IN Blake's case, I think we can all agree(not very). In Barr's case, I think there's a little more room for debate.

[HiAndTight]

I really hope the rumors of the Packers keeping Graham are not true and they dump him, just not worth the guaranteed money they have to give him and think he is a liability as a WR or TE. Money can be better spent actually getting a good tight end or WR.

Cutting Graham would only free up $1.67M in cap space. He has $9M in salary + roster/workout bonus in 2019, but would take a $7.33M cap hit by releasing him. You won't get equivalent talent for $1.67M.

 

 

Next year the cap hit is very little, correct? I thought I'd remembered at the time of the signing that the Packers could get out of this after 2 years with a very little cap hit.

 

 

As for Graham, he wasn't a difference maker last year, but he wasn't horrible. I would say I'd rather see Nick Perry cut, but the numbers theses edge rushers are getting and what Dee Ford, another guy the Packers have checked in on is expected to get, you might be better off rolling the dice with Perry and a couple early round picks and one vet.

 

I do like Smith from the Ravens. Definitely a guy who can set the edge and he has a quick burst...not sure if he's going to be able to drop off in coverage at all though.

[HiAndTight]

Adam Humphries reportedly to the Titans, 4/$36M. That's about what I was figuring. He's from South Carolina and went to Clemson, so maybe he wanted to stay in the southeast.

 

And apparently DeSean Jackson will be traded back to the Eagles, essentially for nothing (a swap of 6th and 7th round picks).

 

Kenny Vaccaro re-ups with Tennessee.

 

A lot of my prospective Packers moves are not materializing.

 

 

That's not what I was thinking. Personally, if we're talking about spending that on a slot, I'd rather just bring Cobb back. Rodgers is comfortable with him, he's still young, and I think he'll be used even more in new offense making him more valuable.

[homer]

There's still that slot receiver from Washington out there right? I like him

 

Edit. nope he signed with the Jets

[LouisEly]

Next year the cap hit is very little, correct? I thought I'd remembered at the time of the signing that the Packers could get out of this after 2 years with a very little cap hit.

Correct. The signing bonus ($11M) is allocated across the entire contract length (3 years, so $3,666,666 per year) so cutting him after this season only results in a dead cap hit in 2020 of $3.67M. His cash value next year is $8M, mostly tied up in salary ($7.45M), so they can cut him after this season and free up $4.33M in cap space.

 

Mathieu to the Chiefs for 3/$42M. Weddle is looking better and better.

[JosephC]

If Barr signed with the Packers, would it be to play OLB or ILB? McGinn, who has an opinion I really trust, thought the Packers ILB play was worse than the OLB play in 2018. Really hard to argue as neither unit was anywhere near a strength. For as much as Martinez can clean up in the running game, the guy cannot cover anyone and he doesn't get very good depth on his drops into pass coverage. I can appreciate that Morrison brought a little thump but he brought little else and is already gone. Burks was bad, bad, bad in pretty much everything he did at the beginning of the year and hardly instilled any confidence that he might actually be a good player.

 

I'd still rate the positions of need in the following order: OLB, S, TE, ILB...but the more I look around, the more I could see justifying ILB as a greater need. Barr just might be the ideal fit because if he craps out at OLB he likely could slide into ILB and be the most athletic guy the Packers have had there in a long, long, long, long, long time.

[PeaveyFury]

I really hope the rumors of the Packers keeping Graham are not true and they dump him, just not worth the guaranteed money they have to give him and think he is a liability as a WR or TE. Money can be better spent actually getting a good tight end or WR.

Cutting Graham would only free up $1.67M in cap space. He has $9M in salary + roster/workout bonus in 2019, but would take a $7.33M cap hit by releasing him. You won't get equivalent talent for $1.67M.

 

I'm not sure this is correct- I see a $12.6 million cap number if he's on the roster in 2019 ($3.45m base, $3.66 prorated signing bonus, $5.3 roster bonus, $250k workout) with that dead cap of $7.33 for savings of $5.27 million.

 

Correct. The signing bonus ($11M) is allocated across the entire contract length (3 years, so $3,666,666 per year) so cutting him after this season only results in a dead cap hit in 2020 of $3.67M. His cash value next year is $8M, mostly tied up in salary ($7.45M), so they can cut him after this season and free up $4.33M in cap space.

 

I'm confused here as well- $11.6 million cap number next year, -$3.6mil of signing bonus (dead cap)= $8 million in savings, no? What am I missing?

[JosephC]

Anthony Barr to the Jets.

[JosephC]

So I'm trying to get caught up in what the Packers did today. The only thing that I could find is that they expressed interest in Malik Jackson, but Jackson already signed with the Eagles. Any more rumors/news out there that I missed?

[LouisEly]

What am I missing?

1) Cap number is salary/bonuses plus prorated signing bonus. The signing bonus has already been paid - there is no way to "save it", it's just accounted for evenly over the life of the contract.

 

B) When a player is released or traded, the entire remaining portion of the signing bonus gets allocated towards the cap for that year - it's no longer prorated, and it does not go to the new team.

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/jimmy-graham-6603/

 

Graham's cap number for 2019 is $12,666,667 - the breakdown is $3,450,000 in salary, $5,300,000 in roster bonus, $250,000 in workout bonus, and $3,666,667 in prorated signing bonus. The signing bonus has already been paid; what has not been paid, and thus the only thing that can be "saved", is the salary and bonuses which equal $9,000,000. If the Packers release him, they will have to allocate all of the remaining prorated signing bonus towards that year's cap, which is 2/3rds of the signing bonus ($3,666,667 for 2019 and another $3,666,667 for 2020). Thus they will save $9,000,000 in salary and bonuses, but will incur a charge of $7,333,333 in dead cap because of the signing bonus, thus only will free up $1,666,667 of cap space.

 

Where you're getting caught up is the signing bonus - it is a sunk cost, allocated evenly over the life of the contract because of NFL accounting rules.

[PeaveyFury]

Right- it’s been paid, but it still counts against the cap in a given year. If he was on the roster, he’d be on their cap for 12.6 million, not just the $9 million. They’re accelerating on the 3.6 million for 2020 onto

the 19 cap, as they were already on the hook for 3.6. 12.6-7.3=5.27, which is what I’ve seen elsewhere, including the link you provided. Click the little scissors at the end of his contract on the Sporttrac site, and it shows you how much cutting him now would save, and it’s 5.27.

 

To simplify, if he’s on the roster he costs them 12.6 mil, if he’s not it’s $7.3 of dead cap, saving them 5.27.

[Fear The Chorizo]

when half of a NFL free agency thread is about whether or not to cut an over-the hill TE currently on your roster and confusion about what the cap ramifications would be, the team you root for had a very slow 1st official day of improving their roster via FA. Somebody remind Gutenkurst that he's not a MLB GM and it's pointless to try and collude!

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Packers are signing OLB Za'Darius Smith (Ravens) and S Adrain Amos (Bears) per about a million Twitter handles. I'm not a huge Smith fan, but he is known as a try-hard guy with a huge motor. He'll be 27 in September, so he's still very young.

 

I love the Amos signing. Only turning 26 in April, and has been a starter since his rookie year in Chicago. Known as a strong tackler who is smart and good in coverage. Many had him ranked right behind Collins as the top FA safeties available .... better than Thomas.

[FVBrewerFan]

Amos, I mentioned him earlier. Figured that's where they were going. Doesn't have the big name, I think he's really good.

[JosephC]

Love the Amos signing and like the Smith signing as well. Feel pretty comfortable with Smith as one would have to assume Milt Hendrickson gave him the thumbs up. OLB and S are still primary need areas, although these signings give the Packers a little more flexibility in the draft. Prior to these signings, it sure felt like the Packers needed to address both of these positions within the first two rounds. Now it makes it a bit easier to draft a TE, ILB, OG earlier if a good one is available.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

This is all going exactly how I'd hoped. 2018 was always a throwaway to me like '05. They sorta had one foot in win now mode and signed some low-risk FA, but seemed to realize it could be a rebuild. I love the youth of both of these guys. I think they're primed to be a big sleeper team next season. A lot of people have written them off.

[Pugger]

The draft is loaded with edge rushers (Allen, Sweat, Burns, Polite, Ferrell in the first round, then in the 2nd/3rd you have D'Andre Walker, Ximines, Winovich, Ferguson, etc.), but there is very little in the draft at safety. For me, Earl Thomas and Collins are at the top of my wish list. I'd bet that one of Sweat/Burns is there at #12, and Polite and Ferrell could be had with a trade down (or trade up from #30).

 

Polite's lackluster combine plus the character concerns could easily push him down to #30. In addition to his pass rushing skills he led the nation in forced fumbles. He could be a steal at #30.

 

Would you want him at #30 tho? If he behaved like that and performed lackluster at an important event like the combine I don't know if I'd bother with him. There are other edge guys in this draft class without that baggage.

[Pugger]

A month or two ago, I read a lot about signing Anthony Barr as an OLB. He wouldn't be terribly expensive compared to other OLBs and a decent chance to be a breakout candidate.

 

But I'd see them signing one OLB and drafting another. Could do the same at Safety.

 

Andy Herman at CheeseheadTV did some excellent film review of Barr. Andy is a must-follow on Twitter (@sconniesports).

 

Is it possible that a team will target Barr as an Edge? Sure, and he will likely be more affordable than the top-tier guys. But as Andy pointed out, his career sack numbers leave something to be desired:

 

In five years, he has 13.5 career sacks which came on 14 plays:

* 10 of those sacks he was unblocked or untouched

* 2 sacks came by beating a RB one-on-one

* 1 sack came when Philip Rivers held the ball to long and walked right back into Barr, who was blocked

* 1 sack came after the guard stumbled out of his stance so Barr had a straight shot at the QB

 

That's... not impressive. Basically, he has NEVER beaten an offensive lineman straight-up for a sack. I don't know how often he was asked to blitz as an OLB in a 4-3, however.

 

Andy's full breakdown is here: https://cheeseheadtv.com/blog/film-review-prospective-free-agent-anthony-barr-507

 

Good edge guys rarely hit the market. Most teams hang onto their good ones so if the Vikes are willing to let him walk Gute should too.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Even with the Smith and Amos signings, they could very well still be in the market for more an both positions. Amos is a traditional free safety with good speed and quality coverage ability, but he's also not afraid to tackle. I wonder if they might still be looking to bring in a more traditional strong safety type who would play closer to the line. That "should" be Josh Jones's spot, but I don't know if they feel he is up to it. Clayton Geathers (Colts) is terrific in run support, but isn't a great coverage guy.

[homer]

Smith was very productive in limited snaps. Love his potential.

 

From LaCanfora:

Za'Darius Smith's deal with the Packers will come in over $16M a year.