2019 NFL Free Agency/A Busy Day for Green Bay

[LouisEly]

We safety swapped with the Bears. Sorta.

No, we...

 

 

 

.... did the Safety Dance with them

 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

The Amos/Ha Ha "swap" is going to add intrigue to what is already a great rivalry. My take on Ha Ha is that he's a talented player, but extremely undisciplined. He's got great ball skills, but is almost afraid of contact at times. He also loves to freelance. I think the Bears may regret that pairing, because Eddie Jackson is a very similar player, who has been covered up over the years by Amos's steady, consistent play.

 

I think the Packers signed Amos because they need a leader back there who is going to be in the right place at the right time, and doesn't deviate from the scheme in search of personal glory. Because he's that type of player, he isn't going to create a ton of turnovers or splash plays, but his presence is going to make those players around him better. Amos is almost Yin to Ha Ha's Yang.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

HHCD has been Darren Sharper with no supporting cast the last few seasons. He will get away with his hero ball in Chicago because there are other guys compensating for it. Before Sharper refined his game he was viewed almost the exact same way. A very talented player that gambled all the time and got burned plenty. He got so good at it later on that people stopped caring for the most part. Actually, Nick Collins was similar too early on with the Packers.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

HHCD has been Darren Sharper with no supporting cast the last few seasons. He will get away with his hero ball in Chicago because there are other guys compensating for it. Before Sharper refined his game he was viewed almost the exact same way. A very talented player that gambled all the time and got burned plenty. He got so good at it later on that people stopped caring for the most part. Actually, Nick Collins was similar too early on with the Packers.

 

I agree with this 100%. Ha Ha is probably going to put up some nice stats in that defense, but I think he's going to drive Bears fan nuts doing it. And because he'll put up stats from the S position, ranking services are always going to be skewed toward valuing him higher than he should be.

 

Of course, he could very well change the way he plays and be a stud in that defense. He's certainly got the talent to do it.

[Point Beer Is Best]

The Packers have re-signed Marcedes Lewis to a 1-year deal.

 

 

I view this as LaFleur doubling down on his commitment to the running game. Lewis is probably one of if not the top blockers in the league. He's a solid receiver who was underutilized in that department by McCarthy. I am getting more and more excited to see what a TE corps of Graham/Lewis/Tonyan and a drafted rookie can do in an innovative offense that plays to their strengths.

 

Not to mention that Lewis had his best work in Nathaniel Hackett's offense in Jacksonville. That being said, from what I've read in terms of scout's opinions, his ability to block fell off last year from his normal standards.

[pacopete4]

The Packers have re-signed Marcedes Lewis to a 1-year deal.

 

 

I view this as LaFleur doubling down on his commitment to the running game. Lewis is probably one of if not the top blockers in the league. He's a solid receiver who was underutilized in that department by McCarthy. I am getting more and more excited to see what a TE corps of Graham/Lewis/Tonyan and a drafted rookie can do in an innovative offense that plays to their strengths.

 

Not to mention that Lewis had his best work in Nathaniel Hackett's offense in Jacksonville. That being said, from what I've read in terms of scout's opinions, his ability to block fell off last year from his normal standards.

 

Thanks, McCarthy.

[HiAndTight]

I'm still hoping for the same two guys in the first round, Sweat at 12 and Fant at 30, but maybe the Packers think Allen is going to be a elite edge rusher and they move up for Allen, or Fant's stock keeps rising and they can't afford to wait until 30 to take him.

 

Now just a Saints-like Lattimore-Ramzcyk-Williams-Kamara draft and maybe we'll get Arod another Super Bowl or 4 during the rest of his time here in Green Bay.

 

This draft is incredibly important, as is this offseason as a whole. So far so good....

 

Sweat is increasingly unlikely to be there at 12, and I'm just not willing to give up the fantastic capital we have this year to move up unless Allen or Bosa start falling. I think what yesterday's moves have done is removed the 'need' to pick an Edge at 12, and they can go whereever they'd like. I'd be modestly surprised if 30 (if they stay there) isn't one of the TE's, but I'm increasingly convinced that they may look for value at 12 or trade down with a team looking to move up if a QB falls to there. Gute seems like the type that may go BPA with that pick.... i.e., are you better off taking the 4th Edge off the board, or the best OT/WR/CB/S if guys like Jawaan Taylor, D.K. Metcalf, Greedy Williams are there as one of them is likely to be.

 

 

First of all, you're obviously right. We no longer HAVE to draft a Edge player, especially not at 12. There's still talk that Matthews wants to come back on a 1 year deal and has passed up meetings with other teams. I think Gute said that's something they're going to disuss in the near future, but he's let it be known that he has other priorities first. That's even more encouraging to me because you saw some of those plays with Clay just has that BURST last year. If he's only playing 40 pct of the snaps and with Za'Darius Smiths ability to lineup over a guard and rush, he could really help as a 3rd down rusher.

 

Second, this draft obviously doesn't have to produce a elite, All-Pro caliber player at two positions(Lattimore/Kamara) and then two really steady starters at RT and Safety like the Saints did, but it is huge in that I do think we have to either hit on a star player, or hit on 4-5 very good players who can contribute in the first 2 years if we're to see a SB before Arod turns 38(not that we can't see one after). This is the biggest off-season since we signed Reggie just because we've had a top 5-8 all time QB since 1993 and we've got 2 SB's to show for it. We need a big influx of young talent into this organization to keep us in competition.

 

With regard to Sweat, it's looking like he may not be there NOW, but hell, by the time of the draft, it could be Allen who's dropping down the draft board(really doubt that, but making a point). It ALWAYS seems to set at this time of the year or at least like it's settling and then the draft comes and these guys everyone has in the top 15 end up going in the 2nd half of round 2, or 4 QB's go in the 1st round, something I just heard with Lock, Murray, Hoskins and the Duke QB who could all be top 10 picks.

 

THAT would leave us with several impact defenders agailable.

 

But I'm 100 pct in line with your thinking. I just started a thread about the draft using this premise. It looks like Greedy Williams is dropping a bit and some have Washington's Murphy as CB1 now. At 12, I'd LOVE to get my hands on a 6'2, 4.38 CB who's fluid, athletic and was a beast two years ago before he struggled a bit last year. We don't need Edge, but we also don't NEED CB's. But what we do need is to have one of those two groups not just be able to hold up, but to be dominant. To have multiple pro-bowl caliber players there.

 

Maybe it's Ed Oliver who drops. Maybe we're overthinking a 40 and it really is Sweat.

 

 

But the bottom line, Gute spent a good chunk of money and what it bought him was more freedom to swing for the fences and less pressure to have rookies come in and try to help turn around this team into a playoff team in their rookie year.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Metcalf's build and lack of body fat actually would worry me, as it theoretically makes him more susceptible to soft issue injuries. The size and speed is certainly very intriguing, but he was also a guy who battled injury and inconsistency throughout his college career. It's hard to put a finger 100% on why I'm skeptical, as he is a freak of nature athletically, but he just seems like the type to me who's always going to be in the training room.

[HiAndTight]

Those are kinda apples to oranges.

 

Cobb is an old 28 with a lot of miles and bruises. It's hard to believe he's 28.

 

Crowder is an ascending 25 and was on a lot of radars to have a breakout season in 2018 and got hurt. Humphries is another ascending player. Those guys are going to be cogs where they're going, or at least planned-to-be cogs.

 

Both of them commanded higher prices for their potential. I think Cobb is out of gas and will be out of football by 2021.

 

Yeah, I don't know when he'll be out of football and I'm not going to predict that, but looking at the two other slot WR'ers who signed for 8-10 million and while they're a couple years younger, they haven't been as productive as Cobb.

 

I'm fine if you believe they have more value than Cobb, but Cobb definitely has more value than a vets minimum. I think he'll get 6-8 million per year.

 

Are you referring to Humphries and Crowder? If not, NVM, but Cobb really hasn't been more productive. He was for a season in 2014, but that's prehistoric. He's had trouble staying healthy and has been topping out about where those guys are now. It's just Ascension vs. descension. I'd take both of those guys over Cobb at this point 10/10 times. His catch % dipped sharply last year which is usually a good sign a WR is falling off. Not withstanding Crowder getting hurt last year, both have gotten better every year thus far. He's never been the athlete Crowder is either.

 

But someone will pay Cobb. I think he'll go the same route as Jennings. He'll wind up somewhere and probably be moderately productive for a little bit and then fade away. I thought he was a great player four years ago and one of the best at helping Rodgers through busted plays, but he has a ton of red flags signaling he's out of juice.

 

 

I wouldn't argue that those two are worth more than Cobb, but the original premise was that there is no way Cobb gets more than a vets minimium. He's clearly worth more than that. And if you compare him to those other two players, he's not much older, though more wear on his tires, he was much better at his peak, though it was several years ago and he's been pretty similar the past couple years.

 

Neither of those guys have had a huge season yet. So I didn't think the Cobb for 3/24 was unrealistic. The longer FA drafts on the less he'll get, but he is more definitely worth more than the minimium right now. THAT I think is ridiculous(and I realize you were not the one who said that's what he was worth).

 

But just look at those two, there are some injury concerns there, their numbers aren't much different than Cobbs when you take away his breakout year...the only way I think he signs for less than multiple years at 6 per is if he comes back to GB on a short term deal to try and stay healthy and go back on the market next year.

[HiAndTight]

Before all this the Packers had so many big holes I thought trading the 12th for more picks would've been the best move. Now they still have the same needs, but it all just doesn't feel as desperate.

 

The rushers they got yesterday bump the reasonable expectation to being in contention in the NFC again IMO. They have needed guys like that for so long, it's really depressing to think about. They had an old but still really productive Peppers, but prior to that you probably have to go back to young Clay or a year of Cullen Jenkins for a comp. Anyone saying they overpaid is nuts. Overpaying is the name of the FA game. If you wanted edge players under 30 that have proven they can play that is what they cost.

 

The residual effect is also huge. Blake Martinez can be the really good supplementary player he probably should be rather than the star you're trying to force him to be. Dean Lowry and Fackrell also seem like they'll get a boost from adding that kind of talent. And they haven't even drafted anyone yet. Just two huge additions. Hopefully they stay healthy.

 

 

Well, that's virtually everyone. You can scoff at the "grades" for the signings, but most outlets came to the same consensus, the Packers upgraded their roster with younger, bigger and more athletic versions outside, but they overpaid to do so.

 

You're paying Za'Darius Smith roughly the same AAV that Trey Flowers is getting in Detroit, and while I realize that there is a lot more than just the numbers, he's guaranteed about 34.5 over the next two years. He has NOT at any point in his career been worth that salary. Flowers is a far more proven player than Smith.

 

I like the players they signed, but I hardly think it's "nuts" to say they overpaid. They paid a backup offensive linemen to a 4 year 29 million dollar deal with a 9 million dollar guarantee. That's reportedly significantly more than anyone else offered him.

 

Amos got overpaid probably by a total of 4-6 million, but you're right, that's to be expected. You could argue that they overpaid the two Smiths about 30 million combined.

 

 

But I've been saying for the last few years, I don't care about the salary cap. If in the 2021 season we're in the same position the Saints are now, we can go to Rodgers, guarantee him more money, add 2 or 3 years onto his deal and save 25 million in cap space pretty easilyi.

 

 

So it's fine they overpaid, but 5 years 87 million for Dee Ford makes more sense on the surface than 4/66 and 4/55 for Preston and Za'Darius Smith.

 

The good thing is when you dig deeper than just the sack numbers, you start to see those guys in more favorable company with regards to QB hurries, hits and they're both very solid vs the run.

 

That said, they overpaid and they're paying based on what they HOPE they become, not what they've done thus far. Gute pretty much came out and said as much.

 

But hopefully Pettine can really get the most out of these guys. If we can have a rotation with Clark, Daniels, Lowry, Wilkerson...maybe Adams has a great off-season and camp and then Lancaster looked good last year along with the two Smiths, Fackerall(who I have very little faith in), Gilbert(I like more than Kyler) and then perhaps Matthews and a 1st and we're a 12 win team next year, nobody's gonna care if we overpaid to get there.

 

The only place I worry about it coming back to bite us is when guys like Kenny Clark are up for extensions and they're looking at what they gave to a guy like Z-Smith if he doesnt' produce. But again, not today's problem.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

The guaranteed money is the only real number. I would guess it's possible that he gets $6mm per? But it seems high. I wouldn't touch him. If I'm playing the guessing game, I would say he gets a 2-year deal with the team getting an easy out after year 1, with around $4 million in guarantees. Vet minimum is probably around $700k for him, which I would agree is ridiculous.

 

I can't compare him to those two guys. The guys the Packers signed haven't really had blue chip seasons yet either, but you overpay for potential because the superstars don't usually get to FA. I think it's clear those two WRs didn't get those deals to get 600 yards. If either one of those guys isn't a major weapon, it's a big disappointment.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Overpaid is an incredibly vague and mostly useless term because it is relative. If they went above market price for two edge rushers and it helped Aaron Rodgers win 12 games again, did they really overpay? If the alternative was Nick Perry and Kyler Fackrell did you still overpay? "Overpaying" is only relevant if you can find something of fairly similar impact for less. If I'm stuck in the desert and one Uber comes by in 3 days and I pay him $1k to get me out of the desert, did I overpay?

[HiAndTight]

I really don't think Cobb will get much of a contract, maybe a Tramon Williams type deal. To be as unproductive as he has been with Rodgers the last couple of years should be alarming to all general managers.

 

 

Cobb's numbers haven't been terrible. Not when you consider he was hurt for much of last year(as was Crowder) and then played most of the previous season without Rodgers. He's basically been a little better than Crowder and slightly worse than Humphries during Cobbs contract.

 

It's just we saw Cobb go nuts and put up almost 100 catches and 1300 yards.

 

But yeah, he got a little banged up(most slot guys do) and I think last year was easily Rodgers worst in terms of just missing people and I don't know that anyone was overshot or badly underthrown than Cobb last year. There were numerous times he had guys beat on double moves, or found that hole in cover 2 by running that deep cross and Rodgers just flat out missed him.

 

Crowder and Humphries deserve more because they're 2-3 years younger than Cobb and it's the same reason we're paying Za'Darius Smith 66 million instead of Ansah or Houston, but I think there's a lot of anti-Cobb bias on here because he so under-performed his expectations.

 

Similar to AJ Hawk who was the 5th overall pick and instead of people saying, "meh, he's pretty good) the first 6-7 years, a lot of people hated him because he should have been the 5th pick in the 2nd or 3rd round.

 

I would say there's a reason New England wanted to trade for Cobb and is now interested in bringing him on board and it's not because he's a guy who's going to make 870K a year.

[homer]

I forgot the Browns signed Kareem Hunt. Jeez, they are a monster on paper now even with Hunt missing the first 8 games.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I also think its arguable calling Trey Flowers far more proven than Preston or Za'Darius Smith. Stats-wise all three are somewhat similar. Flowers hasn't really proven anything in his career other than he's a solid player with the potential to break out. I think it's a safe bet to say that NFL teams like his potential more, hence the larger amount of guaranteed money.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I think the distinction to make with Cobb is that you realistically ARE paying him to get 700 yards. You're hoping to get a lot more than that from Crowder/Humphries.

[PeaveyFury]

Jake Ryan to Jacksonville, pending a physical.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

2x ACL tear on already stiff ILB. Guessing the Packers weren't interested in bringing him back for $5.

[PeaveyFury]

Yeah. A little surprising that he was the first Packer FA to sign, but maybe that just speaks to the quality of the Packers' FA class on the whole.

 

Pretty quiet around the league after the initial frenzy. It'll be interesting to see where the 2nd/3rd tier guys end up and if the Packers are involved.

[CheezWizHed]

I've not seen the contract numbers for Ryan, but I'm guessing its a low $$ with incentives and a good team opportunity for him. Most of our other guys are probably trying to maximize their contract.

[PeaveyFury]

Breeland to the Chiefs. I thought GB would try to keep him, but maybe the injuries were too much of a concern?

[CheezWizHed]

Yeah, that stinks. He was the one FA that really made sense to keep at market price. I like our quartet of young CBs (and even sextet including the couple raw CBs we picked up late last year), but they could use an experienced CB to lean on. And no, Williams isn't that. He is probably our starting FS and I'm not sure he has the wheels for CB anymore.

[HiAndTight]

Breeland to the Chiefs. I thought GB would try to keep him, but maybe the injuries were too much of a concern?

 

From what I've seen he wanted to go somehwere he was more likely to start.

 

The Packers apparently are banking on the Alexander/King combo again this year.

 

For 1 year 3 million, that's a bit of a surprise. Right now we have one good, reliable corner. The Chiefs have the same in Nelson. I don't really see that situation being all that more advantageous, but it's done now.

 

Corner should be a relatively high priority. Not a 1st if there isn't one who's the BPA(though I do like the sound of getting Greedy), but at least before the 5th round.

 

I'd like the see the first 3 picks used on a young, high upside edge rusher. With the signings of the Smiths, if one turns into a Jamal Reynolds, it'll hurt, but not as bad. Another threat for Rodgers, be it one of the Iowa TE's or a WR'er. We should have a really nice option available at 30. Even Irv Smith would be a nice fit at 30(though a better fit in the 2nd). And then a pick on the best available linemen on either side of the ball.

 

After that, the next 3 picks, a talented RB who fits in this scheme, a CB and a safety, hopefully a bigger athletic one. Like a Josh Jones who you hope can figure out what his actual responsibility is as I'm not holding out much hope he figures it out anymore.

 

Then...whatever. A tackle you projected to play guard, a MLB'er with some speed, who knows.

[HiAndTight]

Yeah, that stinks. He was the one FA that really made sense to keep at market price. I like our quartet of young CBs (and even sextet including the couple raw CBs we picked up late last year), but they could use an experienced CB to lean on. And no, Williams isn't that. He is probably our starting FS and I'm not sure he has the wheels for CB anymore.

 

 

I thought Williams looked pretty good last year. Still has the quickness to play in the slot. At this point, I'd rather see them just move Jackson to FS unless they can pick up a better one in the draft.

 

Or MAYBE...Eric Berry likes playing in the Midwest?

 

I'm only half kidding. I have NO CLUE what you even offer a guy with that type of talent who's coming off the injuries he has dealt with the last two years. 1 year 8 million? 3 years with most of it front-loaded so you can cut him next year, but with incentives? So 3 years, 30 million, 5 SB, salary of 5 million guaranteed this year and then a roster bonus for 8 million on the first day of the league year next season?

 

Then you can cut him next year with only 3.3 cap hit?

[pacopete4]

It's not like the Packers can't use the draft to find another CB, right? It's March. There will be plenty of opportunities to add depth at CB even after the draft.