Bryce Harper to Phillies; 13 years, $330M

[Warning Track Power]

 

I am shocked

[MillerParkSouth]

Would have much preferred he go to SF, but thank god this is finally over.

[Warning Track Power]

https://twitter.com/JimBowdenGM/status/1101209575737516033

 

10 years $330 million

 

Unreal

 

EDIT:

 

 

13 years $330 million

[Humans Need Water]

Harper to Phillies has long been the rumor so it's not surprising. Nor is the amount given he turned down 10/300 so you knew it was going to be north of that. Will be interesting to see what happens with Keuchel now

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Well, he got the contract he was looking for. I love Harper's fire and passion for the game, and would have taken him 10 times out of 10 over Machado. Still ... I wonder how many years it will be before he turns into Jayson Werth?

[pitchleague]

huh, I thought the Phillies would rather go after Trout in a couple of years.

 

Good for him. Now let's get the other free-agents under way (rolls eyes.)

[MrTPlush]

I mean $25mil a year is not bad at all especially when $25mil really won't seem like a lot in 10 years.

 

Think about it. We gave Braun $20mil a year at the age of 30 years old (when that extension started, I think?). For $5mil more a year we could have had Bryce Harper starting at an age just entering his prime (26).

 

Considering how irrelevant $25mil will look in 10 years the back end probably won't even be that crippling and it won't even go to 40 years old. The grave amount of risk if he suddenly declines at 30 years old or becomes a Braun-like cripple is terrifying. But if he ages normally and stays healthy this seems like a phenomenal price to get him at. Don't forget the DH will surely be here way before he isn't good in the OF.

[tmwiese55]

We'll see what final numbers/details are. But my gut is 13/330 with no opt outs seems a bit odd. Why wouldn't he take more annual with some opts outs, or just take 10/305 if he needed to be MM. I mean, if the WAS 10/300 offer was there from the beginning (and still is) I'd have done that over this one. Guess it's best to give it a few more hours and see what comes out.

 

Agree with Plush's take. It's kind of like those last 3 years are similar to deferred payments in a way, keeps the AAV down and he just gets it later.

[KeithStone53151]

I am seeing no opt out, because he didn't want one. That's weird. Also a no trade clause. So Harper will almost certainly be a Philly for the rest of his career.

[Eye Black]

If the Cubs hadn't committed $126 million to Yu Darvish last off-season I think they would have found a way to sign Harper this off-season.

[MrTPlush]

We'll see what final numbers/details are. But my gut is 13/330 with no opt outs seems a bit odd. Why wouldn't he take more annual with some opts outs, or just take 10/305 if he needed to be MM. I mean, if the WAS 10/300 offer was there from the beginning (and still is) I'd have done that over this one. Guess it's best to give it a few more hours and see what comes out

 

Why would you take 10/300mil over this? You want to hit FA at 36 years old and trying to get another $30mil then?

[pacopete4]

So Harper gets about $25M/year while Machado gets $30M/year? Interesting.

[MrTPlush]

I am seeing no opt out, because he didn't want one. That's weird. Also a no trade clause. So Harper will almost certainly be a Philly for the rest of his career.

 

Well he could certainly accept a trade someday if he wanted to. While trading such a contract is just about as improbable as it gets if Stanton could get moved....this definitely can too.

[monty57]

We'll see what final numbers/details are. But my gut is 13/330 with no opt outs seems a bit odd. Why wouldn't he take more annual with some opts outs, or just take 10/305 if he needed to be MM. I mean, if the WAS 10/300 offer was there from the beginning (and still is) I'd have done that over this one. Guess it's best to give it a few more hours and see what comes out.

 

Agree with Plush's take. It's kind of like those last 3 years are similar to deferred payments in a way, keeps the AAV down and he just gets it later.

 

That depends on whether he thinks he'll be able to sign a 3-year / $30M contract when he's 36 in ten years. He's guaranteeing himself $30M more dollars with this deal, regardless of health or performance.

[tmwiese55]

Well I was assuming some opt outs in those deals that have all been thrown out there. But if all he cared about was locking up as much as possible right now, then yea. So essentially trading that 30 mil for flexibility to potentially get more. So I was saying sacrificed total dollars for higher AAV and opt outs.

 

this is beyond the overall discussion I guess, but one could argue getting more in hand early allows you to invest it earlier too and can make a lot of that back right there.

[Outlander]

We'll see what final numbers/details are. But my gut is 13/330 with no opt outs seems a bit odd. Why wouldn't he take more annual with some opts outs, or just take 10/305 if he needed to be MM. I mean, if the WAS 10/300 offer was there from the beginning (and still is) I'd have done that over this one. Guess it's best to give it a few more hours and see what comes out

 

Why would you take 10/300mil over this? You want to hit FA at 36 years old and trying to get another $30mil then?

I would take 13/330 as well. He could have signed 10/300 but even with inflation and skyrocket salaries I certainly wouldn't bet that Harper will be good enough at age 36-38 to get $10 million a year.

[MrTPlush]

That $25mil average salary is pretty amazing all things considered. Zack Greinke at age 32 commanded $34mil through his age 37 season. Pujols commanded similar money at age 30 to take him through 40 years old.

 

This is nothing compared to the FA contracts of years past where you were paying just as much (or worse) per year to get a guy arguably already on the decline.

[KeithStone53151]

We'll see what final numbers/details are. But my gut is 13/330 with no opt outs seems a bit odd. Why wouldn't he take more annual with some opts outs, or just take 10/305 if he needed to be MM. I mean, if the WAS 10/300 offer was there from the beginning (and still is) I'd have done that over this one. Guess it's best to give it a few more hours and see what comes out

 

Why would you take 10/300mil over this? You want to hit FA at 36 years old and trying to get another $30mil then?

I would take 13/330 as well. He could have signed 10/300 but even with inflation and skyrocket salaries I certainly wouldn't bet that Harper will be good enough at age 36-38 to get $10 million a year.

 

By 2029, that will probably get you less than a replacement level player.

[Lathund]

If I was a GM, I would rather give out a 13 year $330m deal than the 10 year $300m with an opt-out. The lower AAV is useful in building your roster during those years.

 

Funnily enough, if I was Bryce Harper I would also prefer the same deal. I'll take the guaranteed extra guaranteed $30m over the chance of getting slightly more at the risk of getting less. But I suppose that's based on my risk tolerance (Or the lack thereof).

[tmwiese55]

Any chance it could be a luxury tax type thing they're doing by adding those extra years? We'll give you the 330 you're asking but let's do it over 13 instead of 10 to keep the AAV down to help us with the cap/tax.

[tmwiese55]

If I was a GM, I would rather give out a 13 year $330m deal than the 10 year $300m with an opt-out. The lower AAV is useful in building your roster during those years.

 

Funnily enough, if I was Bryce Harper I would also prefer the same deal. I'll take the guaranteed extra guaranteed $30m over the chance of getting slightly more at the risk of getting less. But I suppose that's based on my risk tolerance (Or the lack thereof).

 

How could he not be getting at least as good of offers as MM? Who got 10/300 with an opt out. IDK at these dollar amounts, gambling that 30 for the chance to lock in another contract at age 30ish seems like a no brainer. Arenado just got a 3 year opt out. Shoot, basically every player in recent years who got an opt out took the opt out and came out way ahead. Only one I can think of who didn't is David Price. Of course, the variables are that we don't know for sure what's offered, how much he valued playing for certain teams/locations, winning, etc. And of course can't blame a guy for 'bird in the hand'

[502 to Right]

Both Machado and Harper took the max guaranteed money. As I would expect.

 

And I think both the Padres and Phillies are going to regret these deals. And I will laugh when their fans are complaining years from now.

[tmwiese55]

With how young these guys are I don't think these are bad deals at all. As long as they do roughly what they've been doing through their prime years the next 6-7 years then you're fine. If injuries happen well nothing you can do about it.

[reillymcshane]

Phillies lineup is looking pretty good this year.

 

C: Realmuto

1B: Hoskins

2B: Hernandez or Kingery

SS: Segura

3B: Franco

OF: McCutcheon

OF: Harper

OF: Herrera

 

Pretty good.

[KeithStone53151]

Phillies lineup is looking pretty good this year.

 

C: Realmuto

1B: Hoskins

2B: Hernandez or Kingery

SS: Segura

3B: Franco

OF: McCutcheon

OF: Harper

OF: Herrera

 

Pretty good.

 

I thought the Phillies were going to try and get both Harper and Moustakas, which would have added some good balance along with a much better 3b option than Franco. Either way, this lineup is set up to compete.