Cardinals extend Mikolas - 4/$68M

[KeithStone53151]

[KeithStone53151]

I can't decide if I like this from the Brewers perspective. There's enough of a chance that he caught the league off-guard last year as a brand new arm, he didn't really get worse down the stretch though as guys saw him more. There's also the argument against signing a guy on the wrong side of 30 to that much $s and years.

[KeithStone53151]

 

So his current year $8M contract remains intact. So this covers seasons 31-34.

[MadScientist]

Nothing against the guy for cashing in when he could, but I sure hope he comes back to earth this year and has age related decline from there. (Except perhaps when he is facing the Cubs).

[RollieTime]

I like it from the Brewers’ perspective. I don’t think he will have another year like he did last season. He was a good story for them last season and did better than anyone could imagine when they first signed him.

 

A lot of money for one great year.... I’ll be interested in seeing how he does this season.

[Lathund]

I think this one will turn out well for the Cardinals. From what I saw of Mikolas last year, and from looking at the stats, there was nothing flukey about his results. He looked like a really good pitcher. Decline might hit anyway of course, but for that kind of money he can be significantly worse than 2018 and still be worth it. On a deal like this you have to factor in both the risk and reward; if he's anywhere close to 2018 level from here on in, that's a bargain.

[sveumrules]

Interesting, didn't realize Mikolas was teammates with Mike Fiers & JD Martinez at Nova Southeastern. Pretty stacked (& now RICH) for a DII school.

 

Mikolas IP by year...

 

2009 (age 20) 136 (A-/College)

2010 (age 21) 81 (A)

2011 (age 22) 83 (A+/AA/AFL)

2012 (age 23) 64 (AA/AAA/MLB)

2013 (age 24) 62 (AAA/MLB)

2014 (age 25) 112 (AAA/MLB)

2015 (age 26) 145 (Japan)

2016 (age 27) 91 (Japan)

2017 (age 28) 188 (Japan)

2018 (age 29) 200 (STL)

 

Will be interesting to see how his arm holds up over the course of the deal. He pitched exclusively as a reliever from 2010-2013 before transitioning to the rotation in 2014. Wonder if the lack of IP during those formative years will bode well for his future health or possibly make him more prone to issues down the line since he didn't really start to build up his IPs until later on.

[KeithStone53151]

I think this one will turn out well for the Cardinals. From what I saw of Mikolas last year, and from looking at the stats, there was nothing flukey about his results. He looked like a really good pitcher. Decline might hit anyway of course, but for that kind of money he can be significantly worse than 2018 and still be worth it. On a deal like this you have to factor in both the risk and reward; if he's anywhere close to 2018 level from here on in, that's a bargain.

 

.279 BABIP on his batted ball profile is pretty lucky. Putting up a sub 3 era with a 6.55 k/9 is pretty lucky. It certainly helps that he basically walks nobody. Considering how often the ball is in play when a guy has such a low k rate and bb rate, having a very favorable BABIP will seriously swing a guys ERA. Also factor in the Cardinals are going to have a few weak spots on defense this year. Carpenter at 3b, Gyorko will probably play some 2b, Martinez sometimes in corner OF. I can't see this guy posting another sub 3 era season. He'll probably settle in the upper 3s somewhere over the 3 combined seasons, with his 33 and 34 seasons probably being underwhelming.

[JohnBriggs12]

The kind of year Mikolas had last year in most years puts you in the top 3 in Cy Young voting. He was easily the best starter in the NL Central last year. As sveumrules points out he hasn't used a lot of bullets for a guy 30 years old, and he seems to be the type that will hold up well. I don't buy that he was lucky by any stretch. We saw him enough to realize it was hard to square up balls against him, he never walks guys, and he has a commanding presence on the mound. Good deal for him and Cardinals.

[tmwiese55]

I'm sure this will turn out fine since it's the Cardinals and their wizardry with pitching, but seems like a lot to give to a guy going into his 30s who's only had one good year. If I'm him, yea I put this in the bank all day after putzing around Japan for a while. Still, if you're home do you turn it down if it's 4/40 instead? You're one arm injury away form never making serious money. Overall, probably fair for all sides, he gets market price and security. They get a good P locked in for not a ridiculous amount. Sure they could've played hardball to try to get him to take less but sometimes that's not worth the negativity.

[Lathund]

I think this one will turn out well for the Cardinals. From what I saw of Mikolas last year, and from looking at the stats, there was nothing flukey about his results. He looked like a really good pitcher. Decline might hit anyway of course, but for that kind of money he can be significantly worse than 2018 and still be worth it. On a deal like this you have to factor in both the risk and reward; if he's anywhere close to 2018 level from here on in, that's a bargain.

 

.279 BABIP on his batted ball profile is pretty lucky. Putting up a sub 3 era with a 6.55 k/9 is pretty lucky. It certainly helps that he basically walks nobody. Considering how often the ball is in play when a guy has such a low k rate and bb rate, having a very favorable BABIP will seriously swing a guys ERA. Also factor in the Cardinals are going to have a few weak spots on defense this year. Carpenter at 3b, Gyorko will probably play some 2b, Martinez sometimes in corner OF. I can't see this guy posting another sub 3 era season. He'll probably settle in the upper 3s somewhere over the 3 combined seasons, with his 33 and 34 seasons probably being underwhelming.

 

6.55 K/9 would've been an issue if he hadn't also been the best starter in the league at limiting walks (1.30 BB/9), it's the ratio that matters more than the raw numbers. More baserunners you give up, the more vital it becomes to record a lot of strikeouts. .279 BABIP isn't much of an outlier, there are whole teams who average that. He was good at limiting hard contact, and while there's Gyorko, Martinez and Carpenter there's also Wong, DeJong,Goldschmidt, Molina, Bader and O'Neill. Their defense will unfortunately be just fine overall. So there's not really any reason to think his BABIP will suddenly balloon. A regression to the normal ~.300 won't even hurt him that much. I don't expect another sub 3 ERA either, but that's not even necessary for the deal to be worth it. Upper 3s can mean different things, but there wasn't even one starter per team that managed 170 IP with a 3.70 ERA in 2018. Bring that down to 150 IP and a 3.80 ERA and that number is still below 40. And barring serious injury trouble, I think that's about the worst case scenario.

 

We won't know who's right until a few years from now of course, but it's really not a foolish deal to make. Look at it this way, the FA market this offseason wasn't exactly swarming with pitchers you'd rather give that contract to. Nor will it be after the 2019 season.

[KeithStone53151]

6.55 K/9 would've been an issue if he hadn't also been the best starter in the league at limiting walks (1.30 BB/9), it's the ratio that matters more than the raw numbers. More baserunners you give up, the more vital it becomes to record a lot of strikeouts. .279 BABIP isn't much of an outlier, there are whole teams who average that. He was good at limiting hard contact, and while there's Gyorko, Martinez and Carpenter there's also Wong, DeJong,Goldschmidt, Molina, Bader and O'Neill. Their defense will unfortunately be just fine overall. So there's not really any reason to think his BABIP will suddenly balloon. A regression to the normal ~.300 won't even hurt him that much. I don't expect another sub 3 ERA either, but that's not even necessary for the deal to be worth it. Upper 3s can mean different things, but there wasn't even one starter per team that managed 170 IP with a 3.70 ERA in 2018. Bring that down to 150 IP and a 3.80 ERA and that number is still below 40. And barring serious injury trouble, I think that's about the worst case scenario.

 

We won't know who's right until a few years from now of course, but it's really not a foolish deal to make. Look at it this way, the FA market this offseason wasn't exactly swarming with pitchers you'd rather give that contract to. Nor will it be after the 2019 season.

 

I tend to agree that I'm kinda meh on whether I like it from the Brewers side. Moreso adding some stats in as you noted that you didn't think his 2018 was fluky. I think it was a little fluky, not a massive outlier by any stretch but he was more than just a little lucky. I think if he was unlucky instead...to the degree that he was lucky and sported a .320 BABIP, he might be closer to a 4 ERA than a 2.8 ERA with maybe 10 less innings.

 

And yeah you make a good point about the pitchers available. I'm sure they are comfortable with what they have in this guy, I just don't see a ton of potential surplus value here. Best realistic case scenario for the Cardinals is this guy is worth roughly as much as his contract pays, with quite a bit of risk.

[sveumrules]

According to StatCast Mikolas has an expected wOBA allowed of .282 versus an actual wOBA allowed of .271, so by that measurement he was a little lucky.

 

At the same time his xwOBA of .282 ranked 22nd out of 121 pitchers with at least 500 batters faced, so still inside the top 20% of starters.

[Roderick]

Too bad the Brewers came in second for him. But, wonder how that would have changed last year. Probable Miley never gets a chance then if Mikolas is doing well?.....

[JosephC]

I don't think the Cardinals, or anybody else, would expect Mikolas to continue to pitch to a sub-3.00 ERA considering the peripherals from last year. His xFIP was 3.67, and that's probably a reasonable expectation moving forward considering his excellent control. Is 17 million average annual value unreasonable for a 3.67 ERA? Probably OK if Mikolas proves to be durable. Adjusting for payroll size, it would be like the Brewers having paid Chacin 12.75 million for last year's work...assuming one values ERA and sees some equivalence between Chacin's 3.50 ERA last year and a 3.67 ERA from Mikolas moving forward.

[clancyphile]

His 5:1 K/BB ratio is very superb.

 

The only Brewers starter who came close in 2018 was Brent Suter - with a 4.42, and he's out with a Tommy John this year. Suter largely does the same thing: Avoids walks, doesn't give up very many hard-hit balls. Not as durable, but a similar approach.

[homer]

I think BABIP alone doesn't tell the whole story anymore particularly with all the shifting going on. Do the Cards shift a ton?

[Ennder]

His bbFIP which takes into account quality of contact etc was 3.25 so there is a good chance it was for real. Having said that pretty much every expected stat he had suggests regression. It is pretty clear last years results were largely luck, just a matter of how much regression you should expect.

[brewcrewdue80]

It's a Meh deal. Cardinals have a guy that can give them 200IP and most likely below 4 ERA. Seems he's added a good 3rd pitch while away in a slider to reduce his reliance on a FB/CB mix. Now in hitter's defense, coming from overseas with a new pitch that was superbly effective, they have had an offseason to study this and make an adjustment. Realistically, Cardinals don't have a SP making a big salary, securing a guy that will give them 200IP below 4ERA is well worth it.

[OnTheBlack]

I think this one will turn out well for the Cardinals. From what I saw of Mikolas last year, and from looking at the stats, there was nothing flukey about his results. He looked like a really good pitcher. Decline might hit anyway of course, but for that kind of money he can be significantly worse than 2018 and still be worth it. On a deal like this you have to factor in both the risk and reward; if he's anywhere close to 2018 level from here on in, that's a bargain.

 

.279 BABIP on his batted ball profile is pretty lucky. Putting up a sub 3 era with a 6.55 k/9 is pretty lucky. It certainly helps that he basically walks nobody. Considering how often the ball is in play when a guy has such a low k rate and bb rate, having a very favorable BABIP will seriously swing a guys ERA. Also factor in the Cardinals are going to have a few weak spots on defense this year. Carpenter at 3b, Gyorko will probably play some 2b, Martinez sometimes in corner OF. I can't see this guy posting another sub 3 era season. He'll probably settle in the upper 3s somewhere over the 3 combined seasons, with his 33 and 34 seasons probably being underwhelming.

 

6.55 K/9 would've been an issue if he hadn't also been the best starter in the league at limiting walks (1.30 BB/9), it's the ratio that matters more than the raw numbers. More baserunners you give up, the more vital it becomes to record a lot of strikeouts. .279 BABIP isn't much of an outlier, there are whole teams who average that. He was good at limiting hard contact, and while there's Gyorko, Martinez and Carpenter there's also Wong, DeJong,Goldschmidt, Molina, Bader and O'Neill. Their defense will unfortunately be just fine overall. So there's not really any reason to think his BABIP will suddenly balloon. A regression to the normal ~.300 won't even hurt him that much. I don't expect another sub 3 ERA either, but that's not even necessary for the deal to be worth it. Upper 3s can mean different things, but there wasn't even one starter per team that managed 170 IP with a 3.70 ERA in 2018. Bring that down to 150 IP and a 3.80 ERA and that number is still below 40. And barring serious injury trouble, I think that's about the worst case scenario.

 

We won't know who's right until a few years from now of course, but it's really not a foolish deal to make. Look at it this way, the FA market this offseason wasn't exactly swarming with pitchers you'd rather give that contract to. Nor will it be after the 2019 season.[/quote]

 

Actually after the 2019 season, at least as of now(who knows who's going to sign) it's going to be one of the best FA classes for pitchers in recent memory. From young studs like Cole to vets like Verlander and MadBum...it's a ridiculously loaded group.

[Lathund]

Actually after the 2019 season, at least as of now(who knows who's going to sign) it's going to be one of the best FA classes for pitchers in recent memory. From young studs like Cole to vets like Verlander and MadBum...it's a ridiculously loaded group.

 

It was in relation to the money they spent. Cole, Sale and the other top tier starters will cost significantly more than $68m, probably at least twice that. Corbin got $140m with a shorter track record of success than the aforementioned, Darvish got $125m with more durability concerns. If you have, or are willing to spend, that kind of money on one starter then it's a great market. If you're going to be shopping in the next tier (Where the Cardinals are more likely to look) then you'll have a hard time finding better value.

[Dead Simmons]

I think BABIP alone doesn't tell the whole story anymore particularly with all the shifting going on. Do the Cards shift a ton?

I don't have the numbers on this but my eyes say NO. They make the pat obvious shifts.

 

For the record, I don't like the 4 yr. deal at age 30 for ANY pitcher (unless he's a knuckle baller) Also, there have been so many one year wonders on this team I would think they would be more cautious. I guess the FO thinking is that you can't have too many potentionally good arms.