Rockies extend Arenado - 8yrs/$255M, opt-out after year 3

[KeithStone53151]

[KeithStone53151]

I feel like we are about 4 years from saying what a mistake this contract was, but right now...players and agents are pretty happy about the move.

[RollieTime]

I think this is actually a pretty good deal all around. 8 years takes him through his age 35 season, which isn’t too bad for the Rockies. He’s won a gold glove every year since he’s been in the majors and is a lock to hit .300 with 35 homeruns. In my opinion, Arenado is a better player than Harper and Machado and is a much safer bet than either of those two.

 

This deal is not an extension after the 2019 season. The new contract goes into effect this season and will override his $26 million contract for this season.

[wallus]

[Bob Skube Snacks]

Worth every penny. Love Arenado’s game.

[bill hAll Star]

I think this is actually a pretty good deal all around. 8 years takes him through his age 35 season, which isn’t too bad for the Rockies. He’s won a gold glove every year since he’s been in the majors and is a lock to hit .300 with 35 homeruns. In my opinion, Arenado is a better player than Harper and Machado and is a much safer bet than either of those two.

 

This deal is not an extension after the 2019 season. The new contract goes into effect this season and will override his $26 million contract for this season.

 

I wouldn't go as far as to say that he's better than Machado. Machado has the defense (when he cares) and arguably is a better hitter. Harper is probably a better hitter than Arenado.

 

That said, Arenado is very, very good and given the likelihood that he "tries harder" than Machado, is more likely to earn the value later on in the contract years.

 

Harper playing half of his games at Coors would hit .285 or .290 with 50 HRs and lots of doubles. Machado would probably hit .330 with an excellent OBP/slugging and just as many dingers as Arenado.

[sveumrules]

Last four years...

 

Machado: 128 wRC+ | 21.7 WAR

Arenado: 127 wRC+ | 20.9 WAR

Harper: 149 wRC+ | 20.6 WAR

 

These guys are about as close as it can get realistically. The advantage that Machado & Harper have over Arenado is they are two years younger & neither has played their whole career in Coors, though Manny actually has a larger home/road split than Arenado oddly enough.

 

Harper is clearly the best hitter of the bunch, but has the biggest questions about health, defense & consistency.

[brwrsfan]

I'd really read it as more of a 3 year contract. Unless he gets hurt or his performance really drops off, there's a very good chance he opts out. I can't remember anyone skipping the opt-out...CC and A-Rod come to mind as guys that opted out, got more money to stay with their current team.

[bill hAll Star]

I'd really read it as more of a 3 year contract. Unless he gets hurt or his performance really drops off, there's a very good chance he opts out. I can't remember anyone skipping the opt-out...CC and A-Rod come to mind as guys that opted out, got more money to stay with their current team.

 

Heyward among others. That said, Arenado definitely is in the class of player that should be ready to opt out then. But injury or change of financial landscape could change that.

[tmwiese55]

I think his opt out would line up with the new CBA too so can re-assess the FA market situation with the new rules. Could be wrong though

[KeithStone53151]

I feel like many are ignoring the Coors effect with Arenado. 832, 882, 772...his road OPS the last 3 seasons. Thats a very solid OPS, but is that a top 5 position player in baseball OPS? Even with elite defense I don't think so.

[brewcrewdue80]

I feel like many are ignoring the Coors effect with Arenado. 832, 882, 772...his road OPS the last 3 seasons. Thats a very solid OPS, but is that a top 5 position player in baseball OPS? Even with elite defense I don't think so.

 

Well, he is still playing in Colorado so none of that matters for concerns. It'd be different if he was given this contract to play say in San Diego.

 

While playing at Coors he's worth this easily and proven so.

[tmwiese55]

I feel like many are ignoring the Coors effect with Arenado. 832, 882, 772...his road OPS the last 3 seasons. Thats a very solid OPS, but is that a top 5 position player in baseball OPS? Even with elite defense I don't think so.

 

Well, he is still playing in Colorado so none of that matters for concerns. It'd be different if he was given this contract to play say in San Diego.

 

While playing at Coors he's worth this easily and proven so.

 

I suppose that's true. But the point would be that the dropoff to whoever replaced him wouldn't be as stark as a normal dropoff becasue his replacement will also get inflated stats. Still, I get it for Col, he's the face of the team, can't let him go. In spite of the Tulo contract blwing up in their face they kind of had to do it. And if he does well and opts out at age 31ish or whatever it is then you can more easily let him go and justify it to the fans as opposed to now in his prime.

[bill hAll Star]

I feel like many are ignoring the Coors effect with Arenado. 832, 882, 772...his road OPS the last 3 seasons. Thats a very solid OPS, but is that a top 5 position player in baseball OPS? Even with elite defense I don't think so.

 

Well, he is still playing in Colorado so none of that matters for concerns. It'd be different if he was given this contract to play say in San Diego.

 

While playing at Coors he's worth this easily and proven so.

 

I suppose that's true. But the point would be that the dropoff to whoever replaced him wouldn't be as stark as a normal dropoff becasue his replacement will also get inflated stats. Still, I get it for Col, he's the face of the team, can't let him go. In spite of the Tulo contract blwing up in their face they kind of had to do it. And if he does well and opts out at age 31ish or whatever it is then you can more easily let him go and justify it to the fans as opposed to now in his prime.

 

I don't think the Tulo contract blew up in their face that badly.

 

Tulo was excellent (oft injured) while in Colorado under the big contract.

 

They did have to pay Jose Reyes $45 million over 2 years not to contribute and the prospects they received in return failed, though Hoffman still could be a great return.

 

I think if not for Reyes' domestic issues, they may have been able to peddle his contract off earlier for some value.

 

In terms of "yeah, but Arenado's done it in Colorado" - it's really hard to find a hitter who has not exploded in Colorado. Maybe Ian Desmond. Like 95+% of guys that play in Colorado get the boost that comes with it...so when you take that context in, it isn't a "yeah well Colorado signed the guy with Colorado inflated stats." If the Rockies obtained Christian Yelich, his numbers would spike accordingly...so it doesn't make much sense.

[brewcrewdue80]

Last four years...

 

Machado: 128 wRC+ | 21.7 WAR

Arenado: 127 wRC+ | 20.9 WAR

Harper: 149 wRC+ | 20.6 WAR

 

These guys are about as close as it can get realistically. The advantage that Machado & Harper have over Arenado is they are two years younger & neither has played their whole career in Coors, though Manny actually has a larger home/road split than Arenado oddly enough.

 

Harper is clearly the best hitter of the bunch, but has the biggest questions about health, defense & consistency.

 

Going back 4 years happens to have Arenado's worst season of the 4 and includes Harper's best season by a long shot over the last 3. Machado had a slightly better than career avg for that year. BRef has Harper at 10WAR in 2015 but the last 3 a combined total of 10.4. You can still put Harper as the best hitter of the trio but it's not that far ahead as this 4year sample indicates and if done by 3 year totals Harper's WAR would be quite a bit lower than just below Nolan/Manny.

[stalton]

Off topic but if Yelich was a Rockie and had the same level of play, I wonder if his season would have been close to Bonds epic year

[bill hAll Star]

Off topic but if Yelich was a Rockie and had the same level of play, I wonder if his season would have been close to Bonds epic year

 

Within striking range, but he probably would've had a .450 OBP and not .515 (73 HR year) or .582 or .609 like in the years when Bonds was walked relentlessly. Colorado probably wouldn't have affected his HR total too much.

 

So I don't think it would've been that close. Bonds' wRC+ was north of 200, in the 230 range for 4 years. Yelich was at 166 last year.

 

So obviously, Yelich's wRC+ in theory shouldn't have changed much in Colorado given that it is weighted for where you play, but his raw AVG/OBP/SLG would be inflated by a performance-enhancing stadium, whereas Bonds was playing in a tough park over half of his games and still put up those numbers. So, Bonds had nothing performance-enhancing about his seasons...

[Thurston Fluff]

I feel like many are ignoring the Coors effect with Arenado. 832, 882, 772...his road OPS the last 3 seasons. Thats a very solid OPS, but is that a top 5 position player in baseball OPS? Even with elite defense I don't think so.

 

While that is a valid point, I don't know if it's as simple as comparing home road splits. I have heard several players say hitting there is very different than anywhere else. One would think hitting half the time in Coors makes it harder to adjust to hitting in other parks.

[502 to Right]

I don't understand the opt outs that teams are granting. If I'm guaranteeing a guy 7-10 years of guaranteed income no matter how he performs (or if), no way am I giving him the opportunity to leave early if he thinks the contract is undervalued.

[sveumrules]

I don't understand the opt outs that teams are granting. If I'm guaranteeing a guy 7-10 years of guaranteed income no matter how he performs (or if), no way am I giving him the opportunity to leave early if he thinks the contract is undervalued.

 

The reason teams include opt outs is it because it gives them the opportunity to reap the rewards of the front end of the contract while potentially missing out on the risk at the back end.

 

A player is only going to opt out if they think they can get more money by doing so, which means they've performed well to that point. If they opt out the original team can let another team pay for the player's older/riskier years & reinvest that saved money elsewhere.

[reillymcshane]

Eight years is a long time for any contract, but I can see this working for Colorado (assuming Arenado doesn't opt out in three years). Arenado is almost 28, meaning his contract runs through age 35. While those later years might not be that good, it's not like you're going into the late 30s or even age 40 range (as with Pujols or Cabrera). Those are years where guys can really break down.

 

So, good for Arenado and the Rockies. Nice to see it work out.

 

I love the consistency that Arenado provides.

 

And while he isn't as good outside of Coors field, he's not bad (the last three years: 1.057 OPS at Coors, .830 OPS on the road). And it should be noted that he plays a ton of games in LA, SD and SF - all parks that aren't particularly hitter friendly.

[TooLiveBrew]

Eight years is a long time for any contract, but I can see this working for Colorado (assuming Arenado doesn't opt out in three years). Arenado is almost 28, meaning his contract runs through age 35. While those later years might not be that good, it's not like you're going into the late 30s or even age 40 range (as with Pujols or Cabrera). Those are years where guys can really break down.

 

So, good for Arenado and the Rockies. Nice to see it work out.

 

I love the consistency that Arenado provides.

 

And while he isn't as good outside of Coors field, he's not bad (the last three years: 1.057 OPS at Coors, .830 OPS on the road). And it should be noted that he plays a ton of games in LA, SD and SF - all parks that aren't particularly hitter friendly.

Good point on some of those other NL West parks. I remember when the Cards acquired Holliday, he also had a road OPS that made me skeptical he'd still be a force away from Coors. Some guys are just legit hitters, & I think Arenado's one of them.

[Thurston Fluff]

I don't understand the opt outs that teams are granting. If I'm guaranteeing a guy 7-10 years of guaranteed income no matter how he performs (or if), no way am I giving him the opportunity to leave early if he thinks the contract is undervalued.

 

The reason teams include opt outs is it because it gives them the opportunity to reap the rewards of the front end of the contract while potentially missing out on the risk at the back end.

 

A player is only going to opt out if they think they can get more money by doing so, which means they've performed well to that point. If they opt out the original team can let another team pay for the player's older/riskier years & reinvest that saved money elsewhere.

 

I don't see the advantage for the team in giving the player the option. If he is worth more he opts out and gets paid more. If he isn't worth more he doesn't opt out and the team is stuck overpaying him. There may be some players who overestimate their value but banking in it is a pretty huge risk.

[Kelbysdaddy]

I was nearly positive Arenado was going to be a yankee next year. So excited he’s staying in Colorado. He’s my favorite non-brewer and was not looking forward to him being in New York.

[sveumrules]

I don't understand the opt outs that teams are granting. If I'm guaranteeing a guy 7-10 years of guaranteed income no matter how he performs (or if), no way am I giving him the opportunity to leave early if he thinks the contract is undervalued.

 

The reason teams include opt outs is it because it gives them the opportunity to reap the rewards of the front end of the contract while potentially missing out on the risk at the back end.

 

A player is only going to opt out if they think they can get more money by doing so, which means they've performed well to that point. If they opt out the original team can let another team pay for the player's older/riskier years & reinvest that saved money elsewhere.

 

I don't see the advantage for the team in giving the player the option. If he is worth more he opts out and gets paid more. If he isn't worth more he doesn't opt out and the team is stuck overpaying him. There may be some players who overestimate their value but banking in it is a pretty huge risk.

 

The most recent example I can think of where the opt out benefitted both the team & the player was with the Dodgers & Greinke.

 

He got 6/147 from LA with an opt out half way through. After three seasons he had put up 17.7 WAR for 76 million dollars, 4.3 million dollars per WAR, good deal.

 

He opted out of the remaining 3/71 to sign for 6/206. So far he has posted 12.6 WAR for 102 million over the first three seasons, 8.1 million per WAR, not as good of a deal, especially with another 3/104 left on the deal & Greinke getting older with diminishing velocity.

 

By giving Greinke an opt out & letting another team over pay him for his decline the Doodgers got those 17.7 WAR for a reasonable cost plus freed up the 71 million Greinke walked away from to reinvest in their team.