Brewers All IN!

[tmwiese55]

The weight of expectation could very well send this season spiraling downward. I don't think the feeling has ever been this optimistic going in, maybe camp of 2011.

The National League is going to be an absolute bloodbath. There are three tiers of legitimate playoff contenders this season and they encompass almost the entire league.

 

TIER #1: FAVORITE

NL WEST

-Dodgers

 

Likely to be the #1 seed simply because they are a cut above everyone else in their division and the other divisions have multiple competitors.

 

TIER #2: DIVISION CONTENDERS

NL CENTRAL

-Brewers, Cubs, Cardinals

NL EAST

-Nationals, Mets, Phillies, Braves

 

Would it really surprise you if any combination of these teams won their division?

 

TIER #3: POTENTIAL WILD CARD CONTENDERS

-Rockies, Padres, Reds, Pirates

 

Not including the Division Contenders, I could see any of the 4 teams above contending IF all things broke right for them.

 

The only teams I don't see having a shot this season are the Giants, Diamondbacks and Marlins. I wouldn't be surprised if 88-90 wins gets you both the NL Central and East. The talent is spread relatively evenly. Going to be a fun 2019.

 

Yup, NL is gonna be crazy. Especially with SD adding Machado so they can be moved up a bit. Basically you only have one truly awful team in Miami. The rest are all at least ok. I saw throughout this collusion talk it mentioned about all this open tanking happening now and I just don't see it. It's one team in the NL. AL of course is worse with more bad teams and disparity but I don't recall ever having a whole league have only one bad team. Now I know other teams besides MIA will have a poor record because someone has to lose these games, but teams like AZ, SF, SD aren't awful teams. At least relative to most bottom 4 teams of a league over recent baseball history.

[pacopete4]

If the Brewers get off to a good start, the season will be a fun one to follow. If they are sluggish, the schedule could bury them from the start. Can't wait to get started on it. We don't always have these opportunities in front of us. Fun stuff!

[SRB]

Even last year, when the pitching staff as a whole vastly exceeded anyone's wildest expectations, not having a frontline starter came back to bite us in the postseason when Jeffress was worn down from pitching so much during the season. They need to give these guys a break and sign Keuchel.

 

People keep pushing this and it's simply disingenuous. Their offense bit them. It was not their lack of having a big time SP. It's stuck because it is easiest thing to say after a cursory glance.

 

Did you watch the games? We quite literally lost the series because our best reliever during the regular season was gassed during the postseason. Obviously the offense went cold too, but the 2018 team was always a bullpen-first team.

[SRB]

I'd feel a lot more "ALL IN" if we had an actual frontline proven starter...

 

Still not sold on our rotation for the long haul in a complete season.

 

How many innings can we expect Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta to go? 180 each? Doubtful.

 

Those three, Anderson and Davies, and hopefully Nelson, but I can't count on him until I see that he is actually ready to contribute.

 

I still think Stearns is going to bring in a starter.

 

Last year Brewers starters accounted for roughly 850ip. Chacin and Anderson combined to fill 350 of those innings. I feel like it’s safe to say that you can count on those 2 to cover at least 300-325 innings based on their career norms.

 

That leaves 500-550 SP innings split up between Davies, Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff, and Nelson.

 

Davies when healthy has proven to give 160+ innings of sub 4 era pitching. Now we’re talking about less than 400ip remains for Nelson and the 3 young guns.

 

I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect those 7 SP to cover a seasons worth of innngs even factoring DL stints from each.

 

Starter accounting for 850 IP seems like a shockingly low number for a 96-win team division winner. We shouldn't be asking a bullpen full of Electric Dudes to carry such a huge load year after year.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Even last year, when the pitching staff as a whole vastly exceeded anyone's wildest expectations, not having a frontline starter came back to bite us in the postseason when Jeffress was worn down from pitching so much during the season. They need to give these guys a break and sign Keuchel.

 

People keep pushing this and it's simply disingenuous. Their offense bit them. It was not their lack of having a big time SP. It's stuck because it is easiest thing to say after a cursory glance.

 

Did you watch the games? We quite literally lost the series because our best reliever during the regular season was gassed during the postseason. Obviously the offense went cold too, but the 2018 team was always a bullpen-first team.

 

I think everyone here watched the games, which is what makes the SP banter so played out and lame.

 

There is no evidence, not any, that he was gassed. In fact, the evidence is stronger that he was the luckiest good reliever the team had last year, and in the NLCS he gave up some weak hits that had been outs most of the year.

 

At some point the guy was going to give up hits. I really doubt he has a fixed energy tank that happened to hit E suddenly in October. It's baseball. It's so lazy to pin a couple games at the end on him and say he must have been tired.

 

Of course it is bullpen first, but that doesn't mean the lack of a top SP is why they couldn't beat LA. The series went 7 games for Pete's sake. This is simply a case of picking a scapegoat and seeing everything through the lens you want.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I'd feel a lot more "ALL IN" if we had an actual frontline proven starter...

 

Still not sold on our rotation for the long haul in a complete season.

 

How many innings can we expect Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta to go? 180 each? Doubtful.

 

Those three, Anderson and Davies, and hopefully Nelson, but I can't count on him until I see that he is actually ready to contribute.

 

I still think Stearns is going to bring in a starter.

 

Last year Brewers starters accounted for roughly 850ip. Chacin and Anderson combined to fill 350 of those innings. I feel like it’s safe to say that you can count on those 2 to cover at least 300-325 innings based on their career norms.

 

That leaves 500-550 SP innings split up between Davies, Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff, and Nelson.

 

Davies when healthy has proven to give 160+ innings of sub 4 era pitching. Now we’re talking about less than 400ip remains for Nelson and the 3 young guns.

 

I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect those 7 SP to cover a seasons worth of innngs even factoring DL stints from each.

 

Starter accounting for 850 IP seems like a shockingly low number for a 96-win team division winner. We shouldn't be asking a bullpen full of Electric Dudes to carry such a huge load year after year.

 

Not when the entire roster is built and managed to play that style of baseball. How are people still not able to grasp this? The Brewers are not going to have traditional stats from their SP. They're just not. That doesn't mean they have to go get some TOR ace.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

The Brewers are not going to have traditional stats from their SP. They're just not.

 

And nor should they. There are very few pitchers in the game who you are better off going a 3rd time through a batting order with than any other available arm.

[Humans Need Water]

Even last year, when the pitching staff as a whole vastly exceeded anyone's wildest expectations, not having a frontline starter came back to bite us in the postseason when Jeffress was worn down from pitching so much during the season. They need to give these guys a break and sign Keuchel.

 

People keep pushing this and it's simply disingenuous. Their offense bit them. It was not their lack of having a big time SP. It's stuck because it is easiest thing to say after a cursory glance.

 

Did you watch the games? We quite literally lost the series because our best reliever during the regular season was gassed during the postseason. Obviously the offense went cold too, but the 2018 team was always a bullpen-first team.

Jeffress wasn't gassed. He last pitched in the regular season on Sept 29. His next game was Oct 4 giving up 2 ER (18 pitches). He then had 5 days off between series and there was a one day then 4 day window in the LAD series between throwing.

 

Jeffress had an neck injury he dealt with at the very end of the season, which is why he wasn't available for game 163.

[owbc]

Other small market teams have increased their payroll to the $140-150 million range when contending and I have no doubt that the Brewers' final 2019 payroll will end up in that range as well.

[Vollbc74]

I'd feel a lot more "ALL IN" if we had an actual frontline proven starter...

 

Still not sold on our rotation for the long haul in a complete season.

 

How many innings can we expect Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta to go? 180 each? Doubtful.

 

Those three, Anderson and Davies, and hopefully Nelson, but I can't count on him until I see that he is actually ready to contribute.

 

I still think Stearns is going to bring in a starter.

 

Last year Brewers starters accounted for roughly 850ip. Chacin and Anderson combined to fill 350 of those innings. I feel like it’s safe to say that you can count on those 2 to cover at least 300-325 innings based on their career norms.

 

That leaves 500-550 SP innings split up between Davies, Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff, and Nelson.

 

Davies when healthy has proven to give 160+ innings of sub 4 era pitching. Now we’re talking about less than 400ip remains for Nelson and the 3 young guns.

 

I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect those 7 SP to cover a seasons worth of innngs even factoring DL stints from each.

 

Starter accounting for 850 IP seems like a shockingly low number for a 96-win team division winner. We shouldn't be asking a bullpen full of Electric Dudes to carry such a huge load year after year.

 

Our SP last year accounted for 57% of our IP. The Dodgers SP accounted for 60% of their IP. Not a large difference considering our very different roster construction.

 

Also, I could see the Davies/Burnes/Peralta/Woodruff/Nelson accounting for more than 500 innings. They could all pitch 120 with safe arm management and log 600 total innings.

[tmwiese55]

As much as I'm on the side that we can't play all year like Sept/Oct without it gassing the pan, and remember how burned out the pen was at the ASB after playing 20odd games in a row for example.

 

I'm also on the side that it wasn't a gassed pen that cost them that series. Heck, they went to the pen earlier than it had all year in those games and still held a very good LAD offense down. Didn't that gassed pen get them to a 1-1 game in 13 or 14 innings. Jeffress' issue was if that neck injury was lingering, but more likely just randomness and small sample size that can happen for all relievers. The offense scoring 1, 2, and 1 runs in 3 of the last 4 games is what ultimately did it. Win that extra inning game to go up 3-1 and it's basically over.

[Humans Need Water]

The Brewers starters are going to operate how they've always operated. We missed the playoffs by 1 game in 2017 and Nelson averaged 6 innings per start, Davies 5.2ip, Chase 5.2ip and Chacin the past 2yrs has averaged 5.2ip. These dudes are almost going 6 complete innings. If they pitch like they're capable of this won't change. Counsell literally said this last week. That he needs them to eat up innings.

[OldHeidelberg]

As much as I'm on the side that we can't play all year like Sept/Oct without it gassing the pan, and remember how burned out the pen was at the ASB after playing 20odd games in a row for example.

 

I'm also on the side that it wasn't a gassed pen that cost them that series. Heck, they went to the pen earlier than it had all year in those games and still held a very good LAD offense down. Didn't that gassed pen get them to a 1-1 game in 13 or 14 innings. Jeffress' issue was if that neck injury was lingering, but more likely just randomness and small sample size that can happen for all relievers. The offense scoring 1, 2, and 1 runs in 3 of the last 4 games is what ultimately did it. Win that extra inning game to go up 3-1 and it's basically over.

 

The bullpen uncharacteristically blowing game 2 is the one that sticks with me, I think it was Jeffress and Burnes. In a close series like that you can look at a lot of stuff, it sure felt like we had little hope once Puig hit that dinger in game 7, the offense was just in a funk at the worst time.

 

Agree about the bullpen being gassed before the AS break, really the schedule fell really well for keeping the bullpen fresh other than that stretch. We can't count on that to happen again.

[tmwiese55]

Yup going up 2-0 would've been huge too. But blown saves and homers to great hitters like Turner happen in baseball. it doesn't automatically mean someone was gassed or anything managerial was done wrong, it's baseball variance and the other team is trying to beat you too. Hang a curve and he hits out but if he's a millimeter off it's a fly out to the wall. I think in that game Grandy hit the one to the wall at the end, fraction different trajectory and it's gone.

 

Thinking about I'd say the biggest risk of a heavy bullpen system is that you obviously use many guys and you never know when someone just 'might not have it that day' and the more guys you put out the more likely that could happen. However, math shows that still better than letting a starter go through 3 times. Big pic though in that series, the Pen pitched a ton of innings and gave up few runs.

[Brew crew 92]

Stearns & co has built a championship caliber team for this year. What

Separates this team from any other national league team including the dodgers is there depth. Best 40 man in league and it’s not even

Close! This team will overcome injuries because of it, And get stronger at the trade deadline. And like last year dominate sept with

Call-ups. This will be one of mlb’s super teams THIS year!

What Stearns has done in the last 41 months is simply astounding!

[MrTPlush]

Stearns & co has built a championship caliber team for this year. What

Separates this team from any other national league team including the dodgers is there depth. Best 40 man in league and it’s not even

Close! This team will overcome injuries because of it, And get stronger at the trade deadline. And like last year dominate sept with

Call-ups. This will be one of mlb’s super teams THIS year!

What Stearns has done in the last 41 months is simply astounding!

 

 

Depth is huge and I think it makes us the NL Central favorite. In all honesty it is the one and the only reason we won the NL Central last year. All that depth in the pitching staff gave us a ridiculous staff down the stretch because everyone stayed healthy. It was huge and in my opinion is one of the most underrated aspects of building a division winner. In a 162 game season having decent back ups instead of washed up trash is like AS level value.

[DuWayne Steurer]

The NL average for IP per game started was 5.5

 

The Brewers averaged 5.2 IP per game started. That's 1 out less than the NL average per game. Over the course of a full season that adds up to 54 innings extra the bullpen would have to eat. Spread out over 12 - 15 guys (which is the actual bullpen size/usage, if not more) that's not a lot of innings per guy.

 

There's no reason to believe the Brewers will be pitching less IP per start this year.

[MrTPlush]

The NL average for IP per game started was 5.5

 

The Brewers averaged 5.2 IP per game started. That's 1 out less than the NL average per game. Over the course of a full season that adds up to 54 innings extra the bullpen would have to eat. Spread out over 12 - 15 guys (which is the actual bullpen size/usage, if not more) that's not a lot of innings per guy.

 

There's no reason to believe the Brewers will be pitching less IP per start this year.

 

Yah, but are those 54 innings really spread out over 12-15 guys? No, probably not. Especially considering the Brewers often time pulled guys early to go to premium relievers. Not like guys were getting lit up and Eric Sogard was pitching. Spread that around to 5 guys or so and we are talking a workload increase over 10%.

[KeithStone53151]

The NL average for IP per game started was 5.5

 

The Brewers averaged 5.2 IP per game started. That's 1 out less than the NL average per game. Over the course of a full season that adds up to 54 innings extra the bullpen would have to eat. Spread out over 12 - 15 guys (which is the actual bullpen size/usage, if not more) that's not a lot of innings per guy.

 

There's no reason to believe the Brewers will be pitching less IP per start this year.

 

Yah, but are those 54 innings really spread out over 12-15 guys? No, probably not. Especially considering the Brewers often time pulled guys early to go to premium relievers. Not like guys were getting lit up and Eric Sogard was pitching. Spread that around to 5 guys or so and we are talking a workload increase over 10%.

 

It's fair to assume they'll be spread over 12-15 guys, just not necessarily evenly. I would actually think the best relievers wouldn't pick up much of that slack, they are going to pitch in winning games regardless. Rarely are the top guys going to come in to eat innings in the 5th-6th. It will be the Guerra/Williams/Barnes/Suter types that are more likely eat those extra 54 innings. If the Brewers are winning 5-2 and the starter is at 80+ pitches through 4 innings, yeah he might get pulled after 5 or at some point in the 5th. It's not like Hader/Jeffress/Knebel are going to be expected to nail down 4+ innings. They'll pitch 2 or 3 max, with other arms picking up the other innings. Remember, this isn't September/October baseball. We will win plenty of games without our top relievers pitching. That's especially likely considering the offense we'll be putting on the field.

[Roderick]

That's especially likely considering the offense we'll be putting on the field.

 

It would be nice if we were winning games by four runs instead of two runs a few more times this year. It allows CC to feel more comfortable using Houser/Guerra/etc instead of all premium guys that night.

[brewers4eric]

I firmly believe that we had the deepest 37 man roster in baseball in September of 2018 and it was a big reason for the number of wins that we put together right down to game number 163. Based on picking up Grandal and resigning Moustakas, our 25 man roster should be solid out of the gates in 2019. The lineup is deep. It will be important to secure enough arms with options to stretch our pitching depth beyond the 25 man limit again this year, but I also trust that Stearns will find the players we need prior to the trade deadline again. It should be a great year to be a Brewers fan.

[AdvantageSchneider]

I firmly believe that we had the deepest 37 man roster in baseball in September of 2018 and it was a big reason for the number of wins that we put together right down to game number 163. Based on picking up Grandal and resigning Moustakas, our 25 man roster should be solid out of the gates in 2019. The lineup is deep. It will be important to secure enough arms with options to stretch our pitching depth beyond the 25 man limit again this year, but I also trust that Stearns will find the players we need prior to the trade deadline again. It should be a great year to be a Brewers fan.

 

Last year Saladino got 118 ABs, Brad Miller got 74 ABs, Sogard got 97 ABs , Jett Bandy got 64 ABs and Nate Orf got 21 ABs. 374 at bats by sub-replacement level players. Who are the worst players that will get ABs this season for the Brewers? I guess if one of our catchers goes down we will see Nottingham/Kratz. If we need a MI maybe we see Saladino again, but you would think if it's later in the season they'd call up Dubon or Hiura or they just roll with Perez and Spangenberg if they both make the team. That would be amazing if the worst hitters we send up all season are Perez, Spangenberg and Gamel.

[clancyphile]

I could see a regular lineup like this:

cf: Cain

rf: Yelich

lf: Braun

3b: Shaw

1b: Aguilar

c: Grandal

2b: Moustakas

ss: Arcia

 

Against a tough right-handed pitcher:

cf: Cain

rf: Yelich

lf: Braun

3b: Shaw

c: Grandal

1b: Thames

ss: Moustakas

2b: Spangenberg

 

Against tough lefties:

cf: Cain

rf: Yelich

lf: Braun

2b: Shaw

3b: Aguilar

1b: Grandal

c: Pina

ss: Arcia

 

If they want a lot of boppers:

cf: Cain

rf: Yelich

lf: Braun

2b: Shaw

3b: Aguilar

1b: Thames

c: Grandal

ss: Moustakas

 

I'm sure they can cook up an all-Gold Glove defense if they wanted to...

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Players that I can confidently say are ahead of Agullar on the 3B depth chart:

 

1. Shaw

2. Moustakas

3. Perez

4. Spangenberg

5. Saladino

6 Mauricio Dubon

7. Nate Orf

8. Jake Hager

9. Lucas Erceg

 

Perhaps if the top four all get hurt in the same game, and they can't get any of the next five up from San Antonio in time, they may stick Aguilar out at 3B. It would be in an extreme emergency situation, though. Yes, they got cute a couple games last year, and it ended up not hurting them. That doesn't even come close to meaning its a good idea to do regularly though.

[TURBO]

...That doesn't even come close to meaning its a good idea to do regularly though.

 

or EVER for that matter...