Brewers All IN!

[AdvantageSchneider]

Adam McCalvy

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The Brewers are way into record payroll territory, and the question is whether that will hamstring them come trade season in July. Mark Attanasio: “The chips are all in now. We’ll find the money at midseason if we need to.”

[long ball]

I don’t know if I’d agree with them being “all in”. The majority of the key cogs are still under team control beyond 2019.

 

Hopefully that doesn’t mean this elevated payroll is a one time shot at the World Series and if they don’t get there or win it they’ll drop back to a lower payroll.

[TURBO]

I'd feel a lot more "ALL IN" if we had an actual frontline proven starter...

 

Still not sold on our rotation for the long haul in a complete season.

 

How many innings can we expect Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta to go? 180 each? Doubtful.

 

Those three, Anderson and Davies, and hopefully Nelson, but I can't count on him until I see that he is actually ready to contribute.

 

I still think Stearns is going to bring in a starter.

[pacopete4]

I'd feel a lot more "ALL IN" if we had an actual frontline proven starter...

 

Still not sold on our rotation for the long haul in a complete season.

 

How many innings can we expect Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta to go? 180 each? Doubtful.

 

Those three, Anderson and Davies, and hopefully Nelson, but I can't count on him until I see that he is actually ready to contribute.

 

I still think Stearns is going to bring in a starter.

 

#Brewers owner Mark Attanasio: "Every year, we are the Rodney Dangerfield of major-league pitching staffs. No respect. And every year they've performed. I'm excited to see what they can do this year as well."

[adambr2]

Honestly Mark A. didn't really say anything there that I wouldn't fully expect him to say. Not that it's not the truth.

[SRB]

Even last year, when the pitching staff as a whole vastly exceeded anyone's wildest expectations, not having a frontline starter came back to bite us in the postseason when Jeffress was worn down from pitching so much during the season. They need to give these guys a break and sign Keuchel.

[KCBrewerfan34]

Has Stearns given us reason to believe he knows what he’s doing?? Perhaps we should give the 2019 Brew a chance before deciding we overachieved. I’d like to think 2018 we were ascending.

[brewmann04]

I agree would feel better with A guy like Dallas on this team

[jerichoholicninja]

Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, and Huira are all still in the organization. They are far from "all in".

[Ennder]

Even last year, when the pitching staff as a whole vastly exceeded anyone's wildest expectations, not having a frontline starter came back to bite us in the postseason when Jeffress was worn down from pitching so much during the season. They need to give these guys a break and sign Keuchel.

 

 

There is very little proof that this is an accurate statement. The Brewers were one hit away from going to the World Series.

 

Sale was hurt and pitched poorly in the world series and the rest of Boston's rotation was not very good and they won it all.

 

It is a bit scary that outside of maybe Chacin not a single pitcher on the team can be relied on for more than 150 IP. It definitely puts some strain on the team overall. But pitching is not what wins championships regardless of the silly saying. There are really rare cases where it holds true like the one crazy Bumgarner year but it is usually the hitting that decides things more than the pitching.

[rickh150]

"All in," as in all your blue chips in for this one hand (season)...... I don't agree with.

If they are truly all in, Hiura is centerpiece for a #1 or #2 pitcher with multiple years left.

[Ennder]

"All in," as in all your blue chips in for this one hand (season)...... I don't agree with.

If they are truly all in, Hiura is centerpiece for a #1 or #2 pitcher with multiple years left.

 

It won't bother me at all if the Brewers trade Hiura as part of a deal for Trevor Bauer mid season if he looks healthy.

[walleye]

I think there is to much emphasis being put on all in being all in or done now. we all know a team evolves from spring training to September and when the brewer brass states there all in ,in my mind means they will do what ever needed through out the season ,not just all in in February.

[AdvantageSchneider]

When I posted that I was just thinking it was something to fire us all up, not create an existential discussion of whether the Brewers were actually all in or not. Kind of picture Mark A at the poker table pushing all his chips into the center of the table, then taking off his wedding ring and putting it in the pot, then taking out the keys to him BWM and throwing it in. Don't think too much about it you're hurting the team when you do that. Just go with it.

[tigerbrew]

Adam McCalvy

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@AdamMcCalvy

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The Brewers are way into record payroll territory, and the question is whether that will hamstring them come trade season in July. Mark Attanasio: “The chips are all in now. We’ll find the money at midseason if we need to.”

 

 

Kinda hard to believe that "the chips are all in now" when the Brewers payroll is less than the Bucks. The Brewers current payroll is about $121 million while the Bucks current payroll is $126.5 million, the Bucks payroll is expected increase in the upcoming offseason. I think Mark A should still has some chips left that he's not letting people know.

[wntrtxn21]

Even last year, when the pitching staff as a whole vastly exceeded anyone's wildest expectations, not having a frontline starter came back to bite us in the postseason when Jeffress was worn down from pitching so much during the season. They need to give these guys a break and sign Keuchel.

 

 

There is very little proof that this is an accurate statement. The Brewers were one hit away from going to the World Series.

 

Sale was hurt and pitched poorly in the world series and the rest of Boston's rotation was not very good and they won it all.

 

It is a bit scary that outside of maybe Chacin not a single pitcher on the team can be relied on for more than 150 IP. It definitely puts some strain on the team overall. But pitching is not what wins championships regardless of the silly saying. There are really rare cases where it holds true like the one crazy Bumgarner year but it is usually the hitting that decides things more than the pitching.

 

The Red Sox starters were much better than you think. Price 16-7/3.58 - Rodriguez 13-5/3.62 - Porcello 17-7/ 4.28 - Eovaldi 3-3/3.33. That's a pretty good staff all around. The offense was hyped all year, but the pitching staff was also very good.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Even last year, when the pitching staff as a whole vastly exceeded anyone's wildest expectations, not having a frontline starter came back to bite us in the postseason when Jeffress was worn down from pitching so much during the season. They need to give these guys a break and sign Keuchel.

 

People keep pushing this and it's simply disingenuous. Their offense bit them. It was not their lack of having a big time SP. It's stuck because it is easiest thing to say after a cursory glance.

[Roderick]

Even last year, when the pitching staff as a whole vastly exceeded anyone's wildest expectations, not having a frontline starter came back to bite us in the postseason when Jeffress was worn down from pitching so much during the season. They need to give these guys a break and sign Keuchel.

 

People keep pushing this and it's simply disingenuous. Their offense bit them. It was not their lack of having a big time SP. It's stuck because it is easiest thing to say after a cursory glance.

 

Yeah, we lost to the Dodgers because the bats went cold. Scored a total of 7 runs in 40 innings in the four losses.

[Bombers]

This is all shaping up to be one of the more exciting spring training camps in a while. Coming off a great season, one could say this team should be better than last year. Even if you factor in "regression" on some, others will improve. On paper, this team has a lot of positives that outweigh the few negatives and I am excited that Mark A feels they are all in. I agree that plopping down ~$30 million to upgrade your offense that came up a bit short in the playoffs definitely feels like you have armed your team with the needed strength. Can't wait for opening day! Can't wait for Torts positivity thread and the Brewers prediction thread and the name your starting 5 thread and the lists go on and on. This is going to be a fun year - Go Brewers!

[OldSchoolSnapper]

The weight of expectation could very well send this season spiraling downward. I don't think the feeling has ever been this optimistic going in, maybe camp of 2011.

[MrTPlush]

I think Mark A should still has some chips left that he's not letting people know.

 

 

First off I think Attanasio is simply referring to the payroll. As we saw in 2012 they are willing to max out payroll or even take a loss if they feel they can win it all. The "all in" moves he is referring to is throwing big one year deals at Moose/Grandal. I don't think he is inferring we are going to unload big prospects this year...though it is very possible we end up doing so. I don't think this "all in" payroll mentality necessarily means anything long term at face value. These short term contracts only hurt profits this year and of course profits should be higher than average because of out success last year and then in the current year.

 

Now I have said in the past considering inflation and our new big TV deal incoming I think a good estimate of a realistic payroll is in the $130mil range. Of course I have no inside details to know what the TV deal will look like, but it should be a sizable bump. That being said it seems my estimate is pretty accurate as they now float around $120mil and have not surprisingly said they will add even more at the deadline if/when need be.

 

I am not sure how sustainable that $130mil number would be. The fact we are willing to go that high leads me to believe a sustainable payroll has to be at least $120mil as they can only voluntarily go overboard so much. While experts and Haudricourt like to scream we are out of payroll we will only know what our long term sustainable payroll is when we start dishing out extensions and/or FA contracts that really solidfy a high number multiple years down the road. Right now we have $28mil sunk into two guys on one year deals which doesn't really tell our long term story too much.

[tmwiese55]

I'd feel a lot more "ALL IN" if we had an actual frontline proven starter...

 

Still not sold on our rotation for the long haul in a complete season.

 

How many innings can we expect Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta to go? 180 each? Doubtful.

 

Those three, Anderson and Davies, and hopefully Nelson, but I can't count on him until I see that he is actually ready to contribute.

 

I still think Stearns is going to bring in a starter.

 

Certainly a fair concern. However, I've been saying to people we shoudl expect a bit better from this year's starters than what we got last year. Should get a few more innings and better production. On paper as of now at least, who knows what happens in reality, just like last year with the injuries and Anderson regressing. Going in, you expected fairly stable results/innings from Anderson/Davies and frankly didn't get it. This year, adding back in Nelson, Burnes, healthy Davies, possibly improved Anderson (can't be much worse really?) it should really improve on what we put out last year. Key word, should. Basically, if they think Nelson is good to go I don't think they're crazy at all to think they're fine or at least better than last year at SP.

[3and2Fastball]

Mark does a pretty good job with Public Relations. He says the Brewers are really pushing the payroll, and I suppose we cannot do anything other than believe him (or doubt him), but the point being there is not any data available to the public in which we can accurately analyze what he is saying.

 

Despite the slightly "Wizard of Oz" type feeling to all of this ("pay no attention to the man behind the curtain"), I am certainly happy to hear that the owner is willing to add to payroll at the deadline. That could mean the likes of bringing someone like Bumgarner on board for the stretch run.

 

Another way of looking at this, is that he is signaling that we are done signing anyone, we're not signing Keuchel, but he is open to adding at the deadline. That could be a good thing or a bad thing, again we don't have access to the books. We are simply left having to accept the narrative that the Brewers don't have any more money to spend.

 

Hmmmmmm. OK

[Warning Track Power]

The weight of expectation could very well send this season spiraling downward. I don't think the feeling has ever been this optimistic going in, maybe camp of 2011.

The National League is going to be an absolute bloodbath. There are three tiers of legitimate playoff contenders this season and they encompass almost the entire league.

 

TIER #1: FAVORITE

NL WEST

-Dodgers

 

Likely to be the #1 seed simply because they are a cut above everyone else in their division and the other divisions have multiple competitors.

 

TIER #2: DIVISION CONTENDERS

NL CENTRAL

-Brewers, Cubs, Cardinals

NL EAST

-Nationals, Mets, Phillies, Braves

 

Would it really surprise you if any combination of these teams won their division?

 

TIER #3: POTENTIAL WILD CARD CONTENDERS

-Rockies, Padres, Reds, Pirates

 

Not including the Division Contenders, I could see any of the 4 teams above contending IF all things broke right for them.

 

The only teams I don't see having a shot this season are the Giants, Diamondbacks and Marlins. I wouldn't be surprised if 88-90 wins gets you both the NL Central and East. The talent is spread relatively evenly. Going to be a fun 2019.

[Vollbc74]

I'd feel a lot more "ALL IN" if we had an actual frontline proven starter...

 

Still not sold on our rotation for the long haul in a complete season.

 

How many innings can we expect Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta to go? 180 each? Doubtful.

 

Those three, Anderson and Davies, and hopefully Nelson, but I can't count on him until I see that he is actually ready to contribute.

 

I still think Stearns is going to bring in a starter.

 

Last year Brewers starters accounted for roughly 850ip. Chacin and Anderson combined to fill 350 of those innings. I feel like it’s safe to say that you can count on those 2 to cover at least 300-325 innings based on their career norms.

 

That leaves 500-550 SP innings split up between Davies, Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff, and Nelson.

 

Davies when healthy has proven to give 160+ innings of sub 4 era pitching. Now we’re talking about less than 400ip remains for Nelson and the 3 young guns.

 

I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect those 7 SP to cover a seasons worth of innngs even factoring DL stints from each.