Machado to Padres - 10 years, $300 million

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I do not contend that Machado is a JJ Watt caliber "good guy" but the level of salt being poured on baseball-related assumptions/projections of Machado and now the Padres are maybe a little bit...just a little bit increased by the spiking and subsequent playoff defeat.

 

Without a doubt. My projection of Machado is definitely fueled by my dislike for him and the type of person I perceive him to be. Probably not a great way to determine future player performance, but I don't care. Machado is going to fail because I strongly want him to.

[tmwiese55]

Padres currently have MLB.com's #2, 15, 23, 26, 34, 48, 49 prospects

 

They will need them because their roster is very meh even with Machado.

 

I think at least three of them are supposed to be up this year. Larger point being that they should be very competitive in due time.

 

And they won't have to pay any of those guys for like 4-5 years. By then Hosmer will be nearing the end of his contract, Myers will be off his too. Those are probably the only 3 legit contracts they have on the books.

[JimH5]

Kudos to the Padres ownership group for using their resources to try to win.

 

Time will tell if the Hosmer and Machado signings were worth it. But it's refreshing to see a small market team spending money.

[bill hAll Star]

And they won't have to pay any of those guys for like 4-5 years. By then Hosmer will be nearing the end of his contract, Myers will be off his too. Those are probably the only 3 legit contracts they have on the books.

 

They also frontloaded Hosmer's for this reason. They'll probably be lighting $13 million on fire for the final 3 years of his deal, but at least they aren't lighting the $21 million of the first 5 years on fire at the end. Hosmer can also opt out, but I highly doubt he'd be in a position to do that.

[Oldcity]

I can understand disliking Machado for being a jag (spiking first basemen, high slides, etc.), but I don't get the hate for his laziness. He plays in 156+ games every year, and it's likely that picking and choosing when to hustle has accounted for some of that. The outcome of a routine grounder is 99.9% likely to be unaffected by a player fully hustling down the line.

[And That]

This is a severe overreaction to not signing Moustakas.

[jerichoholicninja]

I can understand disliking Machado for being a jag (spiking first basemen, high slides, etc.), but I don't get the hate for his laziness. He plays in 156+ games every year, and it's likely that picking and choosing when to hustle has accounted for some of that. The outcome of a routine grounder is 99.9% likely to be unaffected by a player fully hustling down the line.

 

I'd like to think that people don't really have a problem when a guy hits a routine grounder to short that's fielded cleanly and then doesn't bust it down the line. In that situation you're safe or out whether your run hard or not. I think the problem is like in the World Series when he hits a deep fly ball and watches it all the way around first base only to have it stay in the park and get only a single. Or during the Brewers series when he hit that one in the hole and Arcia makes a great play and barely gets him at first when he was clearly jogging his way down the line. Even half an effort and he's safe.

[502 to Right]

I can understand disliking Machado for being a jag (spiking first basemen, high slides, etc.), but I don't get the hate for his laziness. He plays in 156+ games every year, and it's likely that picking and choosing when to hustle has accounted for some of that. The outcome of a routine grounder is 99.9% likely to be unaffected by a player fully hustling down the line.

 

He played like that to get a fat contract. He just got it. I see an Albert Haynesworth-like future. We already know that Machado is a low character guy. Like Haynesworth.

[Warning Track Power]

 

Wow...I love it. Not the Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs, Red Sox. The San Diego Padres.

[Ennder]

Not sure I would call Machado a generational talent. Trout is one, Betts might be, but not Machado. If you look at WAR over the past 4 seasons that Machado has been 100% healthy over, he still is only the 9th highest hitter by WAR. He only barely edges out Yelich and nobody is calling him generational... yet!

 

Machado is a really good baseball player who is probably getting put into a bad situation for him. He isn't going to get to re-establish himself at SS, it is a bad hitters park that is going to suppress his stats some and they probably won't compete the next 2 years at which point he will be moving into his late 20's and probably start to decline a little.

[Roderick]

Padres currently have MLB.com's #2, 15, 23, 26, 34, 48, 49 prospects

 

And all of those prospects are going to learn to be good professionals by watching Machado's hustle.

[Lathund]

Over the last four years, Machado has been the 9th most valuable player in the majors by fWAR. Ahead of him are Trout, Betts, Altuve, Bryant, Lindor, Donaldson, Goldschmidt and Votto. All of whom either didn't or won't hit free agency, or will do so at a later age. Over 6 full seasons worth of PAs he's averaged 5 fWAR. That kind of production, for someone who is only 26, puts him in the absolute top tier among free agents this century. That's easy to overlook, especially with his attitude clouding things. The last few years probably won't be very good (but they might, noone knows), but put it another way: How many other chances do you get to secure a player of that calibre in his prime, to 7 or so good and productive years? And not giving up any draft picks or prospects or anything, only money. Their payroll is still only something like $110m. They're a much better team today than they were yesterday. Free agency isn't the most efficient way to get better, nor the way to build your whole team. But it is the quickest and most certain way, despite all the pitfalls.

 

Basically when you have one of, if not the best, farm systems in the majors ready to graduate players, signing free agents makes perfect sense. Most of your team will cost very little for many years to come, which is exactly when you can afford free agents the most. That this would be worse than the Hosmer signing as someone said earlier is laughable. Now that was an awful signing; I liked the concept of it (i.e spending in free agency to go with your farm system) but spending that kind of money on Hosmer specifically I wasn't a fan of to say the least. I'd feel real iffy about this if it was the Brewers, since Machado is one of my least favourite players in baseball. But apart from that, it's a really good deal.

 

As for Harper, a lot of what was said about Machado applies to him too. Over the same last 4 years, min 1500 PAs, he's the 5th best hitter in baseball with a 149 wRC+. Behind only Trout, Votto, Donaldson and Martinez. Better than Goldy, Freeman, Bryant, Stanton, Rizzo, Betts, Arenado etc. 11th by fWAR over that period. I see all kinds of attempts to cherry-pick stats, like the "ignoring his best season" variety or picking his worst season and the defensive metric that paints the least favourable picture etc. However you do it, there's no escaping that he's a really good player. More importantly again is the idea of scarcity: He's not the best player in the game, not even top 5 or top 10. After that the debate starts. But, in terms of which players will reach free agency at an age where you can reasonably expect 6-8 productive seasons? He's about as good as it gets.

 

Basically this makes all the sense in the world for a team in the Padres situation. If they hadn't signed Hosmer (Who was 2 years older, a worse hitter and a worse defender at a position further down the defensive spectrum, and overall worth less than half the fWAR of Machado), going for Harper too would have made sense.

[KeithStone53151]

I think many are underestimating the Padres lineup. They had a number of young guys getting their feet wet in the outfield last year. They have a couple good/intrguing arms in their rotation, while most of their best prospects are pitchers...and at least a couple will be in the AAA/MLB conversation. Add all that to Myers/Hosmer...established talents. They look like they could be very good this year...probably better in the 2nd half than the 1st half. And again, it's incremental increases. As of now, I would easily project the Padres to finish 2nd in the division in 2020...and potentially contend for 1st with the Dodgers.

[tmwiese55]

Good post by Lathund. I know I come off as a hater a bit pointing out Manny hasn't been thaaaat crazy good of a hitter. But he's still a very good player and the big boost is playing 3B/SS. Most importantly it is the age thing being only 26 so it isn't in the same ballpark as the laughable contracts like Pujols/Cano got in their 30s. As long as Manny is healthy and doesn't reduce his training/effort (does seem a legit risk with him that I don't see with harper) this contract itself should be fine, or at least much better than the ones we've all mocked for years.

 

Also, if that opt out stuff is true they might get out of the last few years of the deal and someone else will pay him on his decline.

[DHonks]

I always wonder if agents and players only look at top dollar figures. Comparing Illinois and California cost of living and taxes means his $300m in San Diego would be about $260-270m in Chicago. So really it’s possible the White Sox did offer the most money for him. Of course, I’d rather play in beautiful SD

[Thurston Fluff]

I can understand disliking Machado for being a jag (spiking first basemen, high slides, etc.), but I don't get the hate for his laziness. He plays in 156+ games every year, and it's likely that picking and choosing when to hustle has accounted for some of that. The outcome of a routine grounder is 99.9% likely to be unaffected by a player fully hustling down the line.

 

Had that criticism been based on the regular season I'd agree. There is no excuse for not running hard every time in the playoffs.

[xisxisxis]

I see all kinds of attempts to cherry-pick stats,

I saw a few in your post. Why do you use fWAR for Machado and wRC+ for Harper? Maybe because Harper disappears when the argument is WAR and Machado disappears when the argument is wRC+ or wOBA (in fact Machado disappears from the top 30). Why 4 years and not 5 or 6? 5 hurts them due to bad years? 4 makes a better argument?

 

It's clear that there is a difference in what all 3 stats are attempting to measure (WAR, wRC+ and wOBA), but isn't it cherry-picking to present the stats that make a player look the best and ignoring the ones that make him look, for lack of a better word, pedestrian. wRC+ and wOBA make Machado look really really not exceptional... Sure, defense matters too, but at present there isn't a very good defensive metric that has been proven to be related to actual performance, which means strictly going by offensive metrics you have Machado outside the top 30 in baseball (with Harper in the Top 10). Does Machado's defense move a player outside the Top30 batters over the last 4 years to the point of he's an exceptional talent or even top 10? I can't say as I haven't really seen enough of his play to rate his defense, but there's plenty of subjectivity in any declaration that Machado is "absolute top tier among free agents" ... This Century? or the artificial time-frame of the last 19 years, hmmm.... since FA? nope...

[Tbadder]

Poor Padres. They just can’t get it right. Let the fiscal hamstringing begin!

 

I will give them props for at least signing the better of the two.

[foamboy1]

Interesting and fun stat:

 

The Padres have spent more on free agency this offseason than they have in the past 25 years combined.

[MadScientist]

Hope he never sniffs the playoffs again. I also hope the Padres have some good insurance on that contract, as Machado is one kick of Aguilar away from permanent IL due to dented face.

[jerichoholicninja]

I always wonder if agents and players only look at top dollar figures. Comparing Illinois and California cost of living and taxes means his $300m in San Diego would be about $260-270m in Chicago. So really it’s possible the White Sox did offer the most money for him. Of course, I’d rather play in beautiful SD

 

I read somewhere that the Padres have somehow configured the contract so that the tax difference isn't really that big. They did the same with Hosmer. Not sure what they can do but they have high paid lawyers and accountants that can figure it out.

[KeithStone53151]

 

This is also a heck of an offer, if true. Those options I would assume include substantial buyouts. So the guarantee is probably pretty good.

[OldHeidelberg]

I always wonder if agents and players only look at top dollar figures. Comparing Illinois and California cost of living and taxes means his $300m in San Diego would be about $260-270m in Chicago. So really it’s possible the White Sox did offer the most money for him. Of course, I’d rather play in beautiful SD

 

I read somewhere that the Padres have somehow configured the contract so that the tax difference isn't really that big. They did the same with Hosmer. Not sure what they can do but they have high paid lawyers and accountants that can figure it out.

 

I was surprised at the cost of living comment and quick google search says that the cost of living is slightly higher in Chicago then San Diego,17th vs 20th so pretty close. Weather aside I would choose a city like NY, LA, or Chicago if I was in that kind of salary stratosphere but then I like big city living and the bigger the better. Living rich in NYC would be a blast, no comparison to someplace like Milwaukee and younger high paid celebrities/athletes know this. Not sure about taxes but I doubt the difference is 30-40 million on that contract, I could be wrong though I have never lived in Illinois or California.

[502 to Right]

I think the White Sox are going to be glad they lost this bidding war. Not today, but 5 years from today.

[homer]

When Machado's contract is up he will still be younger than Robinson Cano is today.