Moose is back! [1 yr/$10mm guaranteed; $11mm mutual 2020 option -- post #186]

[LouisEly]

I think the aliens have taken over Mark's body.......lol

 

 

The idea that the Brewers are hamstrung by payroll restrictions seems like its a largely made-up idea, stemming from a sour-grapes Cub-fan-written Bleacher Report article penned in December, and a few posters here that seem convinced that the Brewers have no money. The fact is, Attanasio wants to win, and he sees that the window is open just like we all do. He's going to make the moves to make it happen, within reason of course.

The Brewers played six home playoff games last year. I don't know what their % take is of that revenue (or their % take from road games or the TV broadcast), but if you ballpark it at 45,000 fans and each spends an average of $200 per game on ticket, parking, concessions, merchandise, etc., that's $9M per game, or $54,000,000 for six games.

 

It's certainly possible that the Brewers earned an additional $30M or more from being in the playoffs last year.

[Jenkins5]

Cain

Yelich

Braun

Shaw

Aguilar

Moose

Grandal

Arcia

Pitcher

 

It is insane to think Gandal Moose, or Shaw 7 hitters. This is just a deep lineup. Thames & Pina are good bats to hit righties off bench, Perez is valuable verse lefties. Gamel I think is most valuable since his splits vs both lefties & righties. He’s a solid .270 .720 OPS against either.

 

CC will be creative with lineups as usual but offense should be able to hit pretty consistently. Just need our arms to do job as well.

[tmwiese55]

The OP basing it off OBP (acting like 30-40 points of OBP isn't significant)

There is actually a slightly higher correlation between team SLG and runs scored than team OBP and runs scored.

 

Moustakas' .459 SLG last year versus Dietrich's .421 neutralizes the OBP difference.

 

That's a fine argument. Just not what was made though, it was saying nearly 40% in OBP is an insignificant difference. That's what I'd say if it was 317 vs 309, not close to 40 or whatever it was when I looked it up. Yea I don't deny Moose is better or anything, but is he so much better to be worth 5X as much and to not have that extra money to spend elsewhere if needed. That's the question. Also, if you go to OPS like you're venturing DD is higher and higher vs RHP. Though from quick glancing it seems Moose is better the last couple years, his career stats are hurt by some of them crap years early in his career. I'm of course fine with Moose, he improves the team, his lefty power is great in MP, and we're going for it and it's not my money. It was just to patently deny as if it was a ridiculous argument that seemed off. I'd say it was very debatable and could go either way and I'd be fine with and see the argument either way. If later on they hold off on an IDK Soria, Granderson type move it could've mattered.

[502 to Right]

Good article on Moose in The Athletic by Ken Rosenthal. Pay only (but you really should spring for the subscription).

 

https://theathletic.com/858737/2019/03/09/rosenthal-new-position-no-worries-for-mike-moustakas-who-is-back-where-he-wants-to-be/

 

Here's a snippet:

 

Through it all, Moustakas was not worried about learning to play second if an interested team made that request, not with spring training lasting six weeks. He knew he would need to be more athletic and more mobile, and trained as such. He was almost eager to return to the middle of the field, joking that he would get to be a baseball player again. Not that he wasn’t at third, but that position is less strategic. The ball gets on third basemen quickly. They react instantaneously. Step and a dive, fire to first.

[stoutdude04]

Just popping this back up to talk about Moose as a 2nd baseman. I am curious what everyone's impression has been?

 

Personally, I like Moose better at 3rd than Shaw. The play last night just seems like a play Shaw doesn't make. On top of that Moose has looked awkward turning double plays and Shaw looked...well, not as awkward last year.

 

I also found it curious that the Crew parted ways with Schoop(whom I didn't care for), but signed a similar player AND decided to teach that player a new position. Why not just keep Schoop? I realize batting lefty may have something to do with it, but just find Schoop and Moose to be similar. Anyways, what's everyone's impression of the Moose/Shaw 2nd and 3rd situation?

[Roderick]

Just popping this back up to talk about Moose as a 2nd baseman. I am curious what everyone's impression has been?

 

Personally, I like Moose better at 3rd than Shaw. The play last night just seems like a play Shaw doesn't make. On top of that Moose has looked awkward turning double plays and Shaw looked...well, not as awkward last year.

 

I also found it curious that the Crew parted ways with Schoop(whom I didn't care for), but signed a similar player AND decided to teach that player a new position. Why not just keep Schoop? I realize batting lefty may have something to do with it, but just find Schoop and Moose to be similar. Anyways, what's everyone's impression of the Moose/Shaw 2nd and 3rd situation?

 

I agree that I think defensively we looked better w/ Shaw at 2B and Moose at 3B. But I won't claim to have watched close to every inning, and that is just my early take.

 

Schoop didn't hit at all. There is no comparison. To have a comparison you need to see some level of hitting.

[tmwiese55]

Other than Moose having been awkward and possibly botching some DP relays I haven't noticed any issues. I'd guess he has better range than Shaw out there, if you recall there was plenty of Shaw range issues last year that people freaked out about.

 

At 3B, haven't they basically checked out as roughly even over the last few years? Correct if wrong, but I thought people have posted that here. Keep in mind two years ago Shaw could've made a strong case for gold glove at 3B. But essentially if they're roughly even at 3B over the last 3 years it will work out that way in a larger sample, 12 games doesn't matter.

[stoutdude04]

 

I agree that I think defensively we looked better w/ Shaw at 2B and Moose at 3B. But I won't claim to have watched close to every inning, and that is just my early take.

 

Schoop didn't hit at all. There is no comparison. To have a comparison you need to see some level of hitting.

 

This is where I'm at as well. I really disliked the Schoop trade, mainly because I thought Villar had value, but if you look at his career I'd consider Schoop and Moose similar, no?

[rickh150]

Switch Moose to 3B and Shaw back at 2B......just feels and looks better. Watching Moose turn a DP or try to throw from his knees after diving for a ball..... just doesn't look right for a guy at 2B. Shaw looked much more sure handed and natural at 2B in his couple months at the position; plus, Moose/Shaw are closer in ability at 3B than 2B.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

BUMP

 

Brewers need to extend Moose. With Shaw MIA, Aguillar looking like a one half-season wonder, and an offense that has struggled at times, I think we definitely need Moose in the fold during this "window".

 

Would 3/41 get it done (confirms 2020 option with $15m for 2021 and 2022?

 

Moose off to the best start (offensively) of his career. Has found there isn't a huge market for him past two offseasons. Maybe locks in some nice financial security for his family for his life (and his kids?)

[HarveysWBs]

BUMP

 

Brewers need to extend Moose. With Shaw MIA, Aguillar looking like a one half-season wonder, and an offense that has struggled at times, I think we definitely need Moose in the fold during this "window".

 

Would 3/41 get it done (confirms 2020 option with $15m for 2021 and 2022?

 

Moose off to the best start (offensively) of his career. Has found there isn't a huge market for him past two offseasons. Maybe locks in some nice financial security for his family for his life (and his kids?)

 

He’s a great clubhouse presence by all accounts, he’s got the title everyone else on the team is chasing, and of course the numbers are great right now. We know Miller plays small for lefty power; it helped make Thames a serviceable major leaguer and Yelich went from borderline all-star to bona-fide superstar. All of this makes Moose a great fit.

 

I love Moose, but—forgive me for noticing—he’s a streaky player who is prone to brutal stretches where he pops it up at an alarming rate. His career pop-up rate is 16% (for comparison, Shaw is just over half that at 9%). If the Brewers commit to him at corner infield and expect to hit him in the middle of the order, I’d want to feel a bit better about the consistency of his approach at the plate. And, if we’re excited about a sample this size in 2019, why aren’t we troubled now by his 2018 post-trade sample of equal size? Recency bias is easy to fall into here. Paying for career numbers after age 30 rarely works out well, especially for small clubs.

 

That being said, if Shaw is done (and could we even know that for sure by the end of the year?) and/or Hiura isn’t what we expected (same question?), we should all be happy to have Moose. But those are all some big ifs at this point.

[Brew crew 92]

BUMP

 

Brewers need to extend Moose. With Shaw MIA, Aguillar looking like a one half-season wonder, and an offense that has struggled at times, I think we definitely need Moose in the fold during this "window".

 

Would 3/41 get it done (confirms 2020 option with $15m for 2021 and 2022?

 

Moose off to the best start (offensively) of his career. Has found there isn't a huge market for him past two offseasons. Maybe locks in some nice financial security for his family for his life (and his kids?)

 

He’s a great clubhouse presence by all accounts, he’s got the title everyone else on the team is chasing, and of course the numbers are great right now. We know Miller plays small for lefty power; it helped make Thames a serviceable major leaguer and Yelich went from borderline all-star to bona-fide superstar. All of this makes Moose a great fit.

 

I love Moose, but—forgive me for noticing—he’s a streaky player who is prone to brutal stretches where he pops it up at an alarming rate. His career pop-up rate is 16% (for comparison, Shaw is just over half that at 9%). If the Brewers commit to him at corner infield and expect to hit him in the middle of the order, I’d want to feel a bit better about the consistency of his approach at the plate. And, if we’re excited about a sample this size in 2019, why aren’t we troubled now by his 2018 post-trade sample of equal size? Recency bias is easy to fall into here. Paying for career numbers after age 30 rarely works out well, especially for small clubs.

 

That being said, if Shaw is done (and could we even know that for sure by the end of the year?) and/or Hiura isn’t what we expected (same question?), we should all be happy to have Moose. But those are all some big ifs at this point.

 

Nailed it!

This is exactly what I think, agree with every word. I will only add, I believe Stearns has seen enough of Shaw, and imo, is secretly hoping Shaw can turn it around for not just the benefit of the team the rest of this year, but will make it easier to trade him this offseason.

[tmwiese55]

If Shaw doesn't rebound they essentially have nothing else to play at 3B next year without Moose. You're going to have pay for someone. I could see the logic of working something out now. Even if Shaw were to rebound you'd still be able to let Thames go and play one at 1B. So the logjam wouldn't exist anymore. That number said here seems a bit much, but probably no harm in talking to them and seeing what can be done.

[MrTPlush]

Why exactly are we extending a guy midseason for 3/$41mil when the last two years he has had to settle for one year deals ($5.5mil and $10mil). There is absolutely no reason to rush extending him. 3/$41mil sounds like a dream situation for him unless you honestly believe Moustakas is going to rep some 130 or better OPS+ the entire season. And even then how much can he possibly command after receiving almost no real interest two years in a row?

 

I would rather wait and see what Shaw and Aguilar end up doing. If I was dying to unwisely extend someone midseason it would be Grandal.

[pacopete4]

Moustakas should make a nice trade piece come to the deadline as we have no chance to compete with the Dodgers this season anyways.

[Brew crew 92]

Moustakas should make a nice trade piece come to the deadline as we have no chance to compete with the Dodgers this season anyways.

 

As Ronald Reagan used to say >

 

There you go again.

[homer]

I'd wait until after the season. I don't think you're getting a discount mid year.

[tmwiese55]

Moustakas should make a nice trade piece come to the deadline as we have no chance to compete with the Dodgers this season anyways.

 

If this were the NBA, yea. Baseball is flukiest of all sports come postseason (besides NCAA bball). Get in and anything can happen. There's really no reason LAD hasn't won a WS in this recent Kershaw era run other than 'that's baseball'. Same with the run the Nats just had, yet no WS for either.

 

Of course I'd pick them right now. But remember Ryu always gets hurt and Kershaw has been hurt a ton lately. They are so deep overall in pitching and hitting though, they're a really great team. But anything can happen in baseball.

[pacopete4]

Moustakas should make a nice trade piece come to the deadline as we have no chance to compete with the Dodgers this season anyways.

 

As Ronald Reagan used to say >

 

There you go again.

 

If you can't laugh at that, I don't know what to tell ya.

[TURBO]

Why exactly are we extending a guy midseason for 3/$41mil when the last two years he has had to settle for one year deals ($5.5mil and $10mil). There is absolutely no reason to rush extending him.

 

Maybe, and I'm just throwing it against the wall, maybe because if he continues to have the season he is currently having, there may be a few teams willing to pony up and sign him for that cost or higher.

 

I agree that we should try and lock him up for another 3 years.

[reillymcshane]

I was wondering about extending Moose as well. However, I'm wary of a guy like him aging rapidly. He seems like a guy who if he loses a notch of his quickness he could really turn into a very mediocre player.

 

That said, he is only 30 - so if you could get him for a two year extension - that would mitigate the risk.

 

My thought is something like 2 years/$25M, with a $12.5M team option - or a $3M buyout. Or maybe start with a 2 years/$10M with a $5M buyout on a third year option.

 

But you have to wonder what is an overpay - not necessarily with regard to production - but based upon what he ended up being paid the last couple of years. I mean, he hit 38 HR two years ago - and could only get $5.5M. That's kind of weird.

 

The big difference between now and the past couple of seasons, is that Moose has shown he can play 2B. Perhaps some teams will feel more comfortable giving him a deal knowing he can play more than one position.

 

This extension talk can easily be said about Grandal. He's been really good - and you wonder if there would be a way to extend him for a couple of more years.

[long ball]

I like Moustakas and he's been good so far. I don't see the need to extend him though. We've seen the last two off seasons that the league doesn't want to give him a multi year deal at that AAV. No reason to believe that changes this off season.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

Why exactly are we extending a guy midseason for 3/$41mil when the last two years he has had to settle for one year deals ($5.5mil and $10mil). There is absolutely no reason to rush extending him. 3/$41mil sounds like a dream situation for him unless you honestly believe Moustakas is going to rep some 130 or better OPS+ the entire season. And even then how much can he possibly command after receiving almost no real interest two years in a row?

 

I would rather wait and see what Shaw and Aguilar end up doing. If I was dying to unwisely extend someone midseason it would be Grandal.

 

For some reason, I thought he made $15 million last season. Maybe that was the $15 million 2019 option that was mutually declined...

 

Given the $5.5 and $10 million comps the past 2 seasons, that is probably too high, but I think I'd do 3/25 (2020-22) if he'd have interest in that

[KeithStone53151]

I would consider a 2 year extension for Moose, but i think we need to see how the rest of the season plays out. Has Shaw completely lost it? How is Hiura doing? How do Dubon/Erceg look? What's our 1b situation?

 

I like Moose alot. From what I've heard, he's one of the hardest working players in the clubhouse. I just don't know that we want to get carried away with a midseason extension.

 

One side point, Moose is still a Boras client and Boras clients tend to not go for midseason extensions. I think Moose might be more open to it than your typical Boras client considering his FA experience the last 2 years and that he geniunely seems to enjoy playing for the Brewers. I would be curious to know how Moose/Boras would respond to a midseason extension effort from the Brewers.

[igor67]

I suspect the issue is that everything about his profile points to being the type of player who does age out of the league quickly and at a younger age, which is why he has not had luck getting the multi year deals.