Moose is back! [1 yr/$10mm guaranteed; $11mm mutual 2020 option -- post #186]

[trwi7]

But as others said, as far as fit and familiarity and maximizing our lineup, not much not to like.

 

I don't think the fit is that great.

 

Didn’t seem to hurt them in August, September, & October and worked pretty well. Is Shaw great at 2nd now so I could see fit not being as good as a true 2B but with shifts still a major part of Brewers approach, that doesn’t matter much.

 

I’d DH goes into play in 2020 & he hits as he has over career that mutual option could improve hit more

 

It's not just about moving Shaw to 2nd. Moustakas is a poor man's Shaw and neither should play against lefties so our best option against lefties is still Perez, which isn't a good option either.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

The Brewers budget must be "double secret probation" maxed out now.

 

This is an absolute terrific way to allocate the $10 million that the Brewers would have had to pay Jonathan Schoop. And it's also $5 million less than Moose's mutual option (that he turned down).

[markedman5]

But as others said, as far as fit and familiarity and maximizing our lineup, not much not to like.

 

I don't think the fit is that great.

 

Didn’t seem to hurt them in August, September, & October and worked pretty well. Is Shaw great at 2nd now so I could see fit not being as good as a true 2B but with shifts still a major part of Brewers approach, that doesn’t matter much.

 

I’d DH goes into play in 2020 & he hits as he has over career that mutual option could improve hit more

 

But the DH isn't going into play in 2020.....https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/cubs/national-league-will-not-add-designated-hitter-until-least-2022-according-to-report

[brewerfan82]

Interestingly, using the 3-year wRC+ numbers SRB posted earlier, this team is looking pretty even against lefties and righties now:

 

vs. RHP Lineup: 113.875 average wRC+

vs. LHP Lineup: 114.5 average wRC+

[StearnsFTW]

Meh. At least it's only 1 year.

 

Tough to get you excited huh?

 

No. Not at all. This isn't a very exciting signing.

 

He's a good player. The fit was always bad.

 

Hence, meh.

 

Edit: trwi7 expressed my concerns well.

[pacopete4]

Interestingly, using the 3-year wRC+ numbers SRB posted earlier, this team is looking pretty even against lefties and righties now:

 

vs. RHP Lineup: 113.875 average wRC+

vs. LHP Lineup: 114.5 average wRC+

 

Brewers OPS’d nearly the same against RHP and LHP in 2018 as well. I think some of this gets overblown.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Interestingly, using the 3-year wRC+ numbers SRB posted earlier, this team is looking pretty even against lefties and righties now:

 

vs. RHP Lineup: 113.875 average wRC+

vs. LHP Lineup: 114.5 average wRC+

 

Brewers OPS’d nearly the same against RHP and LHP in 2018 as well. I think some of this gets overblown.

 

Getting shut down by a few tough lefties in October will do that. If Braun, Aguilar, Cain and Yelich can dominate lefties like they did for most of the regular season last year, the team should be just fine.

[owbc]

It's not just about moving Shaw to 2nd. Moustakas is a poor man's Shaw and neither should play against lefties so our best option against lefties is still Perez, which isn't a good option either.

 

I disagree about Perez, he is the key to making this work. Perez is a pretty good option against lefties...consistent .780 to .800 OPS against lefties. Moustakas isn't terrible against lefties. Shaw is more likely to get platooned in this configuration.

[trwi7]

It's not just about moving Shaw to 2nd. Moustakas is a poor man's Shaw and neither should play against lefties so our best option against lefties is still Perez, which isn't a good option either.

 

I disagree about Perez, he is the key to making this work. Perez is a pretty good option against lefties...consistent .780 to .800 OPS against lefties. Moustakas isn't terrible against lefties. Shaw is more likely to get platooned in this configuration.

 

Perez has only carried an OBP above .304 against LHP once. He is not a good option.

[JohnBriggs12]

I think Brewers will move Thames to a rebuilding team like the Orioles who would hope they can parlay a hot first half into a deadline deal. Brewers will have to eat about half his salary and won't get much back in return. With benches being so short, having multi-positional guy like Perez beats less versatile guy like Thames.

[pacopete4]

Per Ken R.

“Moustakas rejected #Royals’ $17.4M qualifying offer in Nov. 2017. Earned $8.7M total in ‘18 - $6.5M guarantee, $2.2M in incentives. His one-year deal with #Brewers for reported $10M, per @BNightengale, will push two-year total to $18.7M before incentives - just above one-year QO.”

 

Thought this was interesting.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

At the end of the day all that really matters is that the Brewers are a better team now than they were this morning. If we have the good version of Arcia, there isn't a spot in this regular lineup that doesn't have to be accounted for by the opposing manager. That's going to cause opposing managers to burn through more relief pitchers.

 

I'm excited to see Moose's power potential playing a whole season at Miller Park. This lineup is surely going to go through cold spells, but overall it should be much more explosive than what we saw last year.

[brewerfan82]

Perez has only carried an OBP above .304 against LHP once. He is not a good option.

True. But each of the last three years he's also had at least a .277 AVG, at least a .783 OPS, at least a .329 wOBA, and at least a 102 wRC+ against lefties. He's not a superstar, but I'm not sure he's a problem either when you're talking about the 7th guy in the lineup in 1/4 of your games.

[KeithStone53151]

One thing to keep in mind, you can't exclusively protect all our lefties against all LHP. And Moose/Shaw/Thames/etc will only be worse against lefties when they face a lefty starter or situational lefty if you rarely let them hit against LH starting pitchers. It's not something you want to do over the course of an entire season. It's probably unlikely that Perez starts against every lefty, and Shaw/Moose will for sure see quite a few LH starting pitchers. It's an identical argument with Perez against RH pitching. Playing the matchups makes sense in September and October, but not for an entire season.

[wallus]

I get that the defense will be an interesting experience. However, I don't anticipate one offensive player on the team that will be a black hole. I can not remember a time where that happened in my lifetime.

[Ennder]

It's not just about moving Shaw to 2nd. Moustakas is a poor man's Shaw and neither should play against lefties so our best option against lefties is still Perez, which isn't a good option either.

 

I disagree about Perez, he is the key to making this work. Perez is a pretty good option against lefties...consistent .780 to .800 OPS against lefties. Moustakas isn't terrible against lefties. Shaw is more likely to get platooned in this configuration.

 

Moustakas has a career OPS of .693 against lefties. Shaw has a career .724. I have no idea why people think Shaw is the one who should be platooned. He has been better than Moustakas in his career against lefties. Last year Shaw struggled against lefties while playing hurt for half the season but in general he doesn't have extreme splits.

[MNBrew]

Thames starts the season like Barry Bonds every year, why in the world would we cut him for nothing now?

 

Not to mention that if Thames merely repeats his Brewers performance to date he should be starting over Aguilar.

Career Brewers PAs: Thames = 829; Aguilar = 877.

 

Aguilar has higher career BA, SLG, OPS, RBIs (by 60), bWAR (overall) & dWAR & fewer Ks than Thames.

 

Thames has walked 21 more times (about the same difference as Ks) and thus the non-BA part of his OBP is higher.

 

Thames is worse defensively and mostly lesser offensively. Plus Thames is really not good at driving in runs when he's not hitting HRs (53 RBIs in 2 years that weren't himself -- 47 HRs, 100 RBIs) compared to Aguilar (109 RBIs that weren't himself -- 51 HRs, 160 RBIs).

 

How do you figure Thames should be starting over Aguilar? I don't see it. Am I missing something?

[SRB]

It's not just about moving Shaw to 2nd. Moustakas is a poor man's Shaw and neither should play against lefties so our best option against lefties is still Perez, which isn't a good option either.

 

But what does this have to do with the Moustakas signing? Coming in to today our existing option for the same role was Corey Spangenberg: 103 wRC+ vs. RHP, 37 wRC+ vs. LHP (!!!)

 

Moustakas is a massive upgrade. I can see the argument that we could have spent $10 million elsewhere, but it's not like there is a reverse platoon clone of Moustakas sitting out there who we could have nabbed on this deal. Moose also brings consistency: we more or less know what we're getting.

 

Career Brewers PAs: Thames = 829; Aguilar = 877.

 

Aguilar has higher career BA, SLG, OPS, RBIs (by 60), bWAR (overall) & dWAR & fewer Ks than Thames.

 

Thames has walked 21 more times (about the same difference as Ks) and thus the non-BA part of his OBP is higher.

 

Thames is worse defensively and mostly lesser offensively. Plus Thames is really not good at driving in runs when he's not hitting HRs (53 RBIs in 2 years that weren't himself -- 47 HRs, 100 RBIs) compared to Aguilar (109 RBIs that weren't himself -- 51 HRs, 160 RBIs).

 

How do you figure Thames should be starting over Aguilar? I don't see it. Am I missing something?

 

I should have clarified to say starting vs. RHP, since Thames has better numbers over the last three years (Thames 128 wRC+, Aguilar 120 wRC+). Aguilar obviously way way better vs. LHP.

[sveumrules]

It's not just about moving Shaw to 2nd. Moustakas is a poor man's Shaw and neither should play against lefties so our best option against lefties is still Perez, which isn't a good option either.

 

I disagree about Perez, he is the key to making this work. Perez is a pretty good option against lefties...consistent .780 to .800 OPS against lefties. Moustakas isn't terrible against lefties. Shaw is more likely to get platooned in this configuration.

 

Moustakas has a career OPS of .693 against lefties. Shaw has a career .724. I have no idea why people think Shaw is the one who should be platooned. He has been better than Moustakas in his career against lefties. Last year Shaw struggled against lefties while playing hurt for half the season but in general he doesn't have extreme splits.

 

Moustakas career split against LHP is dragged down by his results from 2011-14. Since they've both been in the league Moose has fared anout 18% better versus LHP than Shaw.

 

Moose 2011-14 vs LHP 211/267/328 (62 wRC+)

Moose 2015-18 vs LHP 271/314/461 (107 wRC+)

Shaw 2015-18 vs LHP 239/298/426 (89 wRC+)

[MNBrew]

To an earlier post in this thread, it's also very possible that Shaw gets some starts at 3B when Perez is starting at 2B. I don't think it's going to be Moose every single day at 3B and Shaw only plays 2B.

[RollieTime]

An important note on this signing is that it is only a one year deal and allows the Brewers to have financial flexibility next offseason to address the needs heading into the 2020 season. With Moose’s $10 million, Grandal’s $18 million, Thames’ $6 million, and Braun’s contract being a little cheaper, there will be approximately $36 million coming off the books. Anderson is a trade candidate as well.

 

Stearns will have plenty of money to play with next offseason to bring in guys that fit in around our core players.

[bill hAll Star]

Yeah, Moose ever since 2015 hits lefties pretty well. So give him sporadic days off against RHP with Shaw at 3B or on a game you are OK with Shaw maybe struggling with the LHP.

 

The lineup should absolutely club RHP and be fine against LHP. My biggest concern is Pina has reverse splits and may not handle the LHP games that he’ll be starting fairly often as well as we’d hope.

 

With Mous/Shaw/Thames and I guess Gamel - you can only have so many LOOGYs come in before you are forced to pitch to one of these guys with a subpar RHP in a close game.

[trwi7]

An important note on this signing is that it is only a one year deal and allows the Brewers to have financial flexibility next offseason to address the needs heading into the 2020 season. With Moose’s $10 million, Grandal’s $18 million, Thames’ $6 million, and Braun’s contract being a little cheaper, there will be approximately $36 million coming off the books. Anderson is a trade candidate as well.

 

Stearns will have plenty of money to play with next offseason to bring in guys that fit in around our core players.

 

Cain gets more expensive, Yelich gets more expensive, pretty much every key player will get raises in arbitration and we'll need replacements for at minimum Grandal.

[cesser000]

we'll need replacements for at minimum Grandal.

Hello Jacob Nottingham

[clancyphile]

Thames starts the season like Barry Bonds every year, why in the world would we cut him for nothing now?

 

Not to mention that if Thames merely repeats his Brewers performance to date he should be starting over Aguilar.

Career Brewers PAs: Thames = 829; Aguilar = 877.

 

Aguilar has higher career BA, SLG, OPS, RBIs (by 60), bWAR (overall) & dWAR & fewer Ks than Thames.

 

Thames has walked 21 more times (about the same difference as Ks) and thus the non-BA part of his OBP is higher.

 

Thames is worse defensively and mostly lesser offensively. Plus Thames is really not good at driving in runs when he's not hitting HRs (53 RBIs in 2 years that weren't himself -- 47 HRs, 100 RBIs) compared to Aguilar (109 RBIs that weren't himself -- 51 HRs, 160 RBIs).

 

How do you figure Thames should be starting over Aguilar? I don't see it. Am I missing something?

 

In Thames's defense... he batted second a lot in 2017. Who usually led off that year? Jonathan Villar, who slumped. Sogard has some leadoff as well.

 

But the bulk of it was Villar - and not a lot of RBI chances there. The pitcher batted ninth, and before the pitcher were such OBP luminaries as Orlando Arcia and Keon Broxton. Not a lot of RBI chances to be had.

 

In 2018, Thames led off in 23 contests, and batted second 14 more times. Again, not a lot of RBI chances when Pina, Arcia, and the pitcher are ahead of him.

 

He had the power, but not a lot of runners on base ahead of him.