Moose is back! [1 yr/$10mm guaranteed; $11mm mutual 2020 option -- post #186]

[markedman5]

Bump!

[MrTPlush]

Outperform his talent level? What does that even mean?

 

That’s like saying you got your car that maxes out at 140mph to go 180mph. I mean, it doesn’t make sense.

 

Clearly he was at that talent level and it wasn’t luck. Speaking of things Moustakas has an OPS of .924 and his career best was .835. I’m not saying he can’t just greatly improve overnight...but huge red flag and quite a bold strategy to give such a guy an extension when he is over 30. Guys usually don’t suddenly improve that much at 30/31 and keep it up every year after. There are examples...but risky to bet on that.

 

I have GREATLY enjoyed Moustakas this year...but some have started to call for a possible extension (mostly mentioned after the season)...but I’d pump the brakes on that...seems riskier than some may think.

[adambr2]

Outperform his talent level? What does that even mean?

 

That’s like saying you got your car that maxes out at 140mph to go 180mph. I mean, it doesn’t make sense.

 

Clearly he was at that talent level and it wasn’t luck. Speaking of things Moustakas has an OPS of .924 and his career best was .835. I’m not saying he can’t just greatly improve overnight...but huge red flag and quite a bold strategy to give such a guy an extension when he is over 30. Guys usually don’t suddenly improve that much at 30/31 and keep it up every year after. There are examples...but risky to bet on that.

 

I have GREATLY enjoyed Moustakas this year...but some have started to call for a possible extension (mostly mentioned after the season)...but I’d pump the brakes on that...seems riskier than some may think.

 

I am sure you know exactly what is meant by it, it is not that complicated. Casey McGehee and Jesus Aguilar are two examples, but there are many guys with limited pedigree and limited success at the minor league level who go on to find surprisingly high levels of MLB success before regressing.

 

Now in Shaw's case, he was good at this level for a pretty good sample size. So you have to consider that, sure. I'm not advocating giving up on him. But there was always the thought among many the last two seasons that he was playing at a little higher level than was ever expected, and while he isn't THIS bad, I don't think it's impossible that he might regress to the level of an average MLB 3rd baseman rather than the well above average guy he has been the last 2 seasons. I hope not, of course, and I do agree an extension with Moustakas is probably best avoided unless it comes at very team friendly terms.

[coolhandluke121]

An .835 OPS as an LHB at Kauffmann is pretty good. More importantly, he was above average there for years (so no fluke), broke into the majors much younger than Shaw, and was significantly better in the minor leagues despite generally being much younger at every stop.

 

The whole body of work for Shaw just isn't that great. He doesn't have nearly as long of a leash as some are assuming, nor should he.

[Thurston Fluff]

Shaw seems to get into occasional long streaks of ineptitude every couple years. He was in one in Boston which was part of why we got him. That is probably what he's going to always be. The real question to me is can we live with someone who sucks rocks for half a season for the production we get the rest of those two years?

[HiAndTight]

 

Is Shaw really that talented? I mean, they're all talented in the perspective that they got to this level, but I never really thought of Shaw as a guy who was just primed to break out at this level because of natural talent. I thought of him more as a guy who worked hard and always seemed to outperform his talent level until this season.

 

 

He's got a pretty sweet swing and bat speed. I don't know, called it skilled and hard working if you want, but back to back 4 WAR seasons =very productive. And he was extremely productive for the Red Sox before they gave up on him too early and have lamented the move ever sense.

 

So it'd be foolish for the Brewers to do the very same thing after he's been so productive.

 

But, I guess the adjective is up to you. I think he's that talented.

[HiAndTight]

Outperform his talent level? What does that even mean?

 

That’s like saying you got your car that maxes out at 140mph to go 180mph. I mean, it doesn’t make sense.

 

Clearly he was at that talent level and it wasn’t luck. Speaking of things Moustakas has an OPS of .924 and his career best was .835. I’m not saying he can’t just greatly improve overnight...but huge red flag and quite a bold strategy to give such a guy an extension when he is over 30. Guys usually don’t suddenly improve that much at 30/31 and keep it up every year after. There are examples...but risky to bet on that.

 

I have GREATLY enjoyed Moustakas this year...but some have started to call for a possible extension (mostly mentioned after the season)...but I’d pump the brakes on that...seems riskier than some may think.

 

 

 

Absolutely agree with you on Moose. He's having a career year, but we're talking about a guy who's been a .251/.307/.431 hitter with a .737 OPS for his career. It'd be great if he could keep doing this, but I think things level out for both of them. And one of them we control for the next 3 years, the other is a FA after this year.

[HiAndTight]

An .835 OPS as an LHB at Kauffmann is pretty good. More importantly, he was above average there for years (so no fluke), broke into the majors much younger than Shaw, and was significantly better in the minor leagues despite generally being much younger at every stop.

 

The whole body of work for Shaw just isn't that great. He doesn't have nearly as long of a leash as some are assuming, nor should he.

 

 

We're talking about two guys who've got hundreds of regular season games(~1050 for Moose and 550 for Shaw). Why are we talking about minor leagues? That's got nothing to do with anything. Also, why are we breaking down Mouse to JUST his home OPS? If he was .835 at home and .737 overall, then he was boardline unplayable on the road, right? I haven't looked that deep because when you're talking about the sample size these two have, I don't think it's that important to break it down further than just the bottom lines(ie, home, road splits, minors). They've both got suffecient histories to form opinions.

 

Shaw's been the more productive offensive player in the shorter time. You want to mention mitigating factors, that's fare. But it's also worth pointing out that Shaw has two 4 WAR seasons(the last two), Mouse has just one back in 2015. I hope he has a second this year, but the point is, Shaw's still had a pretty impressive run.

 

And it certainly seems like he DOES have as long of a leash as some are assuming(though unless you're CC or DS it would be impossible to try to state factually one way or the other how long of a leash a player has).

 

I will say, I'm impressed by Mouse this year. And especially since he looks like he's carrying an extra 6-10 pounds

[OldSchoolSnapper]

If by some miracle Moose accepts the option go for it. However, I'm in camp pump the brakes for anything else. It's probably likely the Brewers just got the best season of his career for $10 million. Given his age, probably ceiling and price, he seems like a good candidate for a team needing to know when it already lucked out.

[wallus]

Odds are good that Moose will not be back. Next year it will be Hiura's time.

[brewmann04]

Best 10 Million the brewers spent

[Oxy]

I think it will depend on how this season ends up. If we flounder down the stretch and miss the playoffs I can't see us re-signing Moose or Grandal. Likewise, if we win the World Series I can't see them coming back either. If things keep chugging along well and we perform well in the playoffs but come up just a bit short (again) then I could see how an extension could make sense.

 

It doesn't seem like it would be a wise long term financial decision, but if Stearns and MA believe it to be so, then it will be so.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

Given our "window" is probably the next 2-3 years, would make sense to keep the assets like Grandal and Moose that we can, given that any help coming from the farm probably wouldn't be here until Yelich and others have moved on.

[Lathund]

An extension might or might not make sense. If it's the 2/24 type of deals that Springer and LeMahieu got, that'd be fine. He doesn't need to be amazing for that to be worth it. If it's more years or a higher AAV, I'd be a bit cautious.

 

Needless to say though this depends a lot on what else goes on with the roster. Does Shaw recover to be at least a league-average 3B or better? Does Hiura keep hitting when he inevitably comes back up later in the year? Does the rotation appear to be settled and not in need of major spending? Will Anderson's and Thames' options be used? Extending Grandal?

[StearnsFTW]

I was pretty indifferent on this signing at the time, but man he's been a godsend. Hope he can keep it up!

[rcc]

 

Is Shaw really that talented? I mean, they're all talented in the perspective that they got to this level, but I never really thought of Shaw as a guy who was just primed to break out at this level because of natural talent. I thought of him more as a guy who worked hard and always seemed to outperform his talent level until this season.

 

 

He's got a pretty sweet swing and bat speed. I don't know, called it skilled and hard working if you want, but back to back 4 WAR seasons =very productive. And he was extremely productive for the Red Sox before they gave up on him too early and have lamented the move ever sense.

 

So it'd be foolish for the Brewers to do the very same thing after he's been so productive.

 

But, I guess the adjective is up to you. I think he's that talented.

 

I agree.

[KeithStone53151]

If by some miracle Moose accepts the option go for it. However, I'm in camp pump the brakes for anything else. It's probably likely the Brewers just got the best season of his career for $10 million. Given his age, probably ceiling and price, he seems like a good candidate for a team needing to know when it already lucked out.

 

I tend to agree with this. It's so easy to say "he's good, we can't let him get away, just pay him". Despite record spending, we can't forget the Brewers are a small market team with restrictions. We need to draft/develop and roll primarily talented players with team control to be competitive. We can't sign a good player to a long term deal at every position, heck even the Cubs can't afford to spend $10-15 million per player. If the pitching develops as hoped and we are able to plug many other holes with guys in the minors...maybe Moose fits the budget. I don't think that's likely though. I think expecting the Brewers to sign him to a 2-3 year deal for $12-15 million per year next offseason would not be wise and would be setting yourself up for disappointment.

[adambr2]

Mutual options just aren't something you can ever count on being exercised. If Moose keeps up the year he's having he's going to want to take one last crack at getting the 5/80 or so in free agency that he's been after the last two offseasons, and I certainly wouldn't blame him.

[CanOfCorn]

Was there ever audio of Moose confirming that he had at least one multi-year deal that he turned down? Or any further proof other than a tweet by Jon Heyman? Just curious...

 

 

Also...this was a great signing then and is proving to be one of the most significant signings we've had. Imagine where we'd be if Stearns wasn't able to lock down Grandal and Moose with Attanasio opening up his check-book a bit wider to make it happen.

[MrTPlush]

Forget about the mutual option already. Unless he falls off a cliff there is no way in heck he is exercising that. To him that is a $8mil option because he gets $3mil from the buyout regardless and the option is worth $11mil.