The Saga Ends - Realmuto to the Phillies Official

[clancyphile]

yup, they should have ran it back. Tried to get some under the radar SPs who could fit well in that park and tried to win for a few years. They couldn't spend a lot due to the Stanton deal and some bad contracts but you had a great offense. Some forward thinking regarding pitching like how MKE has done it and they could have done well.

 

It wasn’t that they couldn’t spend based on payroll. Their owner was a crook and milked every dollar out of that organization.

 

Short-term, finding pitchers would have helped on the margins, but long-term, they need to rebuild their farm, and get talent. The trades have some decent players coming to them. But high draft picks for the next 2-3 years will get more impact p;ayers in their system.

 

They have a long road.

[clancyphile]

yup, they should have ran it back. Tried to get some under the radar SPs who could fit well in that park and tried to win for a few years. They couldn't spend a lot due to the Stanton deal and some bad contracts but you had a great offense. Some forward thinking regarding pitching like how MKE has done it and they could have done well.

 

It wasn’t that they couldn’t spend based on payroll. Their owner was a crook and milked every dollar out of that organization.

 

Short-term, finding pitchers would have helped on the margins, but long-term, they need to rebuild their farm, and get talent. The trades have some decent players coming to them. But high draft picks for the next 2-3 years will get more impact p;ayers in their system.

 

They have a long road.

[JosephC]

Looks like a pretty risky trade for the Marlins. Alfaro strikes out a TON, but does have legit power at the catching position. Stewart has a long way to go to make an impact at the MLB level. Sixto Sanchez is a nice get for the Marlins. Overall a decent trade, but I thought they could of done better.

 

Makes me wonder if the Brewers were ever engaged with the Marlins on Realmuto, pre-Grandal signing? I think I would have given up a Peralta/Ashby/Nottingham package and not looked back.

 

Sanchez is floating around 20 on the top 100 prospects lists...at best Peralta was scraping the bottom of the top 100. Alfaro was around #70 on the top 100 when he graduated, and since he is between 1 and 2 years of service time it's really hard to tell if his value goes up from there or if it goes down. It wouldn't be crazy to put him in the same class as Woodruff although Alfaro was a bit higher and bats carry a higher prospect surplus value than arms because they are a bit easier to project. How much better is Ashby than Stewart? Take out the Brewer bias and just looking at prospect lists, the Philadelphia package is far, far better than a Peralta/Ashby/Nottingham package. I'd put the surplus value of the Phillies package at Sanchez (55.1 million...#21 pitcher) + Alfaro (24.9 million...will rate him as equivalent to #75 hitter on top 100 as there is not enough of a WAR history to do a surplus value calculation) + Stewart (2.2 million...just call him a role player prospect) and not really put any real significance on the international bonus pool money = total of 82.2 million. I was thinking 70-80 million for Realmuto and think this is a very solid return for him. Peralta (16.6 million equivalent to #95 pitcher on top 100) + Ashby (5.5 million as role player prospect) + Nottingham (5.5 million as role player prospect) = 27.6 million in surplus value....package from Philadelphia about 3 times better than a Peralta/Ashby/Nottingham package. I think a package from Milwaukee that approximates the Philadelphia package would have been something like Burnes/Woodruff/Turang/Henry.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Looks like a pretty risky trade for the Marlins. Alfaro strikes out a TON, but does have legit power at the catching position. Stewart has a long way to go to make an impact at the MLB level. Sixto Sanchez is a nice get for the Marlins. Overall a decent trade, but I thought they could of done better.

 

Makes me wonder if the Brewers were ever engaged with the Marlins on Realmuto, pre-Grandal signing? I think I would have given up a Peralta/Ashby/Nottingham package and not looked back.

 

Sanchez is floating around 20 on the top 100 prospects lists...at best Peralta was scraping the bottom of the top 100. Alfaro was around #70 on the top 100 when he graduated, and since he is between 1 and 2 years of service time it's really hard to tell if his value goes up from there or if it goes down. It wouldn't be crazy to put him in the same class as Woodruff although Alfaro was a bit higher and bats carry a higher prospect surplus value than arms because they are a bit easier to project. How much better is Ashby than Stewart? Take out the Brewer bias and just looking at prospect lists, the Philadelphia package is far, far better than a Peralta/Ashby/Nottingham package. I'd put the surplus value of the Phillies package at Sanchez (55.1 million...#21 pitcher) + Alfaro (24.9 million...will rate him as equivalent to #75 hitter on top 100 as there is not enough of a WAR history to do a surplus value calculation) + Stewart (2.2 million...just call him a role player prospect) and not really put any real significance on the international bonus pool money = total of 82.2 million. I was thinking 70-80 million for Realmuto and think this is a very solid return for him. Peralta (16.6 million equivalent to #95 pitcher on top 100) + Ashby (5.5 million as role player prospect) + Nottingham (5.5 million as role player prospect) = 27.6 million in surplus value....package from Philadelphia about 3 times better than a Peralta/Ashby/Nottingham package. I think a package from Milwaukee that approximates the Philadelphia package would have been something like Burnes/Woodruff/Turang/Henry.

 

Ehh, I personally think Sanchez is pretty overrated on those lists, and he has only pitched in the lower levels of the minors. Peralta has shown that he can get major league hitters out. I think they are much closer in value than you do. I was just going position for position, too, rather than a straight comparison of prospect value. The closest Brewer equivalent to Alfaro is obviously Nottingham, although Alfaro does rate higher. Sanchez is tough because the Brewers don't have a good straight comparison. I went with Peralta because of his small stature and electric stuff. I think Ashby is the closest comparison to Stewart, although I personally think he's got a much higher upside. I think he rates higher than a role-player prospect. I just went low-level lefty for low-level lefty.

[bill hAll Star]

The Marlins have done an impressive job of disassembling a roster with several homegrown impact offensive players (Stanton, Ozuna, Yelich, Realmuto) with the distinct possibility of receiving what ultimately turns out to be zero true impact talent in return.

 

yup, they should have ran it back. Tried to get some under the radar SPs who could fit well in that park and tried to win for a few years. They couldn't spend a lot due to the Stanton deal and some bad contracts but you had a great offense. Some forward thinking regarding pitching like how MKE has done it and they could have done well.

 

It wasn’t that they couldn’t spend based on payroll. Their owner was a crook and milked every dollar out of that organization.

 

Both can be true.

 

If I'm a Marlins fan (one of 10, and I understand they've had a very tumultuous/bad relationship with owners so I'd be mad that they've done this to me again) - I'm glad they tore it down.

 

Bour played out of his mind, Stanton had his best year by far, Ozuna had his best year, Yelich was fine...

 

...and they won 77 games.

 

They were up to $115 million in payroll and, while the owner at the time may have been a crook, that is way higher of a payroll than they had ever had. They were going nowhere.

 

I'm someone that is OK with tanking but I do understand the reality that you have about a 50-60% chance of remaining in the dumpster for a decade...that said, they were going nowhere but 75 win land with that roster unless they made some drastic, lucky moves. Jose Fernandez's death had massive ripple effects.

[KeithStone53151]

Sanchez is floating around 20 on the top 100 prospects lists...at best Peralta was scraping the bottom of the top 100. Alfaro was around #70 on the top 100 when he graduated, and since he is between 1 and 2 years of service time it's really hard to tell if his value goes up from there or if it goes down. It wouldn't be crazy to put him in the same class as Woodruff although Alfaro was a bit higher and bats carry a higher prospect surplus value than arms because they are a bit easier to project. How much better is Ashby than Stewart? Take out the Brewer bias and just looking at prospect lists, the Philadelphia package is far, far better than a Peralta/Ashby/Nottingham package. I'd put the surplus value of the Phillies package at Sanchez (55.1 million...#21 pitcher) + Alfaro (24.9 million...will rate him as equivalent to #75 hitter on top 100 as there is not enough of a WAR history to do a surplus value calculation) + Stewart (2.2 million...just call him a role player prospect) and not really put any real significance on the international bonus pool money = total of 82.2 million. I was thinking 70-80 million for Realmuto and think this is a very solid return for him. Peralta (16.6 million equivalent to #95 pitcher on top 100) + Ashby (5.5 million as role player prospect) + Nottingham (5.5 million as role player prospect) = 27.6 million in surplus value....package from Philadelphia about 3 times better than a Peralta/Ashby/Nottingham package. I think a package from Milwaukee that approximates the Philadelphia package would have been something like Burnes/Woodruff/Turang/Henry.

 

Ehh, I personally think Sanchez is pretty overrated on those lists, and he has only pitched in the lower levels of the minors. Peralta has shown that he can get major league hitters out. I think they are much closer in value than you do. I was just going position for position, too, rather than a straight comparison of prospect value. The closest Brewer equivalent to Alfaro is obviously Nottingham, although Alfaro does rate higher. Sanchez is tough because the Brewers don't have a good straight comparison. I went with Peralta because of his small stature and electric stuff. I think Ashby is the closest comparison to Stewart, although I personally think he's got a much higher upside. I think he rates higher than a role-player prospect. I just went low-level lefty for low-level lefty.

 

I'm with Joey on this one. I'm most shocked by how much you undervalue Peralta of all players on the list. You're basically saying he's similar value to Ray, who is a couple spots outside top 100 lists. Peralta if eligible would probably be in the 30s or better on these lists. His value is probably pretty close to Sanchez, I like Peralta better but I can understand an argument either way. I also think you are underselling Ashby and Nottingham a bit and overselling Sanchez. I can't believe how high he's ranked considering his offspeed stuff is mediocre at best right now, I know scouts love his fastball and his command of it but that's really all he's got. Then you factor in his injury issues...no way should he be valued as the 20th best prospect in baseball.

[JosephC]

I am not overselling Sanchez. Is he right around #20 on most top prospects lists? #13 at Baseball America, #27 at MLB Pipeline, #23 at Baseball Prospectus.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=sanche000six

 

I think it would be you underselling Sanchez since you have ignored what is clearly the consensus opinion of the player.

 

And as for Peralta, if he was so dominant why did the Brewers take him out of the rotation? For every good number (3.72 FIP, 11.0 K/9) there was another number that was just average or sub-par (4.25 ERA, 96 ERA+, 4.6 BB/9). The last month he was a regular in the starting rotation was August and during that month he had a 5.81 ERA. That performance jumps him from ~#100 to about ~#30 on the top prospects list? I don't see it.

 

The reason I use all these prospect lists, WAR calculations, surplus value charts is to try to take my bias completely out of it.

[sveumrules]

Through his age 19 season Peralta had thrown 113 innings, all in rookie ball, with 158 Ks & 47 BBs.

 

Through his age 19 season Sanchez has thrown 221 innings, most of them in A/A+, with 191 Ks & 43 BBs.

 

Sanchez blows Peralta out of the water in both age relative to level & command (to say nothing of his better scouting reports), which is likely why he has been a top 30 prospect six different times already while Peralta never cracked a single top 100.

[KeithStone53151]

I am not overselling Sanchez. Is he right around #20 on most top prospects lists? #13 at Baseball America, #27 at MLB Pipeline, #23 at Baseball Prospectus.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=sanche000six

 

I think it would be you underselling Sanchez since you have ignored what is clearly the consensus opinion of the player.

 

And as for Peralta, if he was so dominant why did the Brewers take him out of the rotation? For every good number (3.72 FIP, 11.0 K/9) there was another number that was just average or sub-par (4.25 ERA, 96 ERA+, 4.6 BB/9). The last month he was a regular in the starting rotation was August and during that month he had a 5.81 ERA. That performance jumps him from ~#100 to about ~#30 on the top prospects list? I don't see it.

 

The reason I use all these prospect lists, WAR calculations, surplus value charts is to try to take my bias completely out of it.

 

Those lists all assume the guy is healthy and he won't have yet another arm injury. I find it a bit ridiculous that guys currently undergoing TJ are getting listed in the upper teens. There's a ton of risk whether guys will come back from that and be the same pitcher. Sanchez has had both elbow and shoulder injuries already, he's an undersized RHP(like Peralta), his offspeed stuff is widely reported as mediocre...those are all pretty severe red flags. I just think the prospect guys are dreaming on Sanchez a bit too much, and they have a history of ignoring injuries completely when evaluating guys.

 

As for Peralta, they took him out of the rotation because he didn't have it at that time...same reason they took Chase out of the rotation. Peralta has shown flashes of being a star at the MLB level and is only 22. He's not a complete product, but there's enough to like and he's had enough success that his value has gone up tremendously since his time in the minors.

[KeithStone53151]

Through his age 19 season Peralta had thrown 113 innings, all in rookie ball, with 158 Ks & 47 BBs.

 

Through his age 19 season Sanchez has thrown 221 innings, most of them in A/A+, with 191 Ks & 43 BBs.

 

Sanchez blows Peralta out of the water in both age relative to level & command (to say nothing of his better scouting reports), which is likely why he has been a top 30 prospect six different times already while Peralta never cracked a single top 100.

 

From what I've read on Sanchez, his offspeed stuff is way behind his fasball. It either barely gets mentioned or they just say "has plus potential". Usually at the point he's at, guys have 2 good pitches and are refining a 3rd. This guy has 1 good pitch and is working on 2. Hence, much more of a project. Considering his BB rate, it makes me wonder if he's even throwing his other stuff to work on/improve it or if he's just throwing fastballs and going for results. He's not going to be able to simply blow everyone away with heat when he reaches AA, heck his A+ numbers aren't even that impressive considering it's the FSL.

[sveumrules]

The lists do not assume that guys are healthy, Sanchez is already getting knocked for his health concerns & still ranks that highly.

 

If he didn't have injury issues he would be in the untouchable tier.

 

Between ages 18/19 the guy put up 74 innings at A+ with 65 K, 20 BB & only 2 HR. It is extremely rare for pitchers that young to be so successful with such an advanced placement.

 

The last guy I could think of off the top of my head who was that advanced was Jose Fernandez & it looks like he put up 55 innings with 59 K, 17 BB & 0 HR in A+ at age 19.

[sveumrules]

Usually at the point he's at, guys have 2 good pitches and are refining a 3rd. This guy has 1 good pitch and is working on 2.

 

Usually at the point he's at guys are freshmen in college.

[KeithStone53151]

Usually at the point he's at, guys have 2 good pitches and are refining a 3rd. This guy has 1 good pitch and is working on 2.

 

Usually at the point he's at guys are freshmen in college.

 

I understand many are going to disagree and that's fine, there's no right or wrong answer here. But on this point specifically...Sixto will be 21 in July. That's roughly the age that many college Juniors are drafted. Most high school arms projected in the top 3-4 rounds have a better offspeed offering than Sixto does currently, and any college arm drafted in the top 5 rounds will be miles ahead of him with offspeed offerings. Scouts basically see a projectable guy that can control a 97-100 mph fastball very well and are ignoring every other red flag.

[sveumrules]

Right, 21 on July 29th, which means he'll be pitching most of the 2019 season as a 20 year old. By the time he's 21 he could already be in AAA when even the most advanced college draftees are still in A/A+ ball.

 

With regards to his secondaries, none of the reports I found paint as dire a portrait as you are...

 

"slider and change up that each project as plus or better." -BA

 

"his breaking balls were crisp, and his changeups were well-located and moving." -FanGraphs

 

"Slider: 45/50 Curveball: 55/60 Changeup: 50/60" -FanGraphs

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Sanchez is a very good prospect. There is no disputing that. I personally think he's ranked a little high, but I feel that way about any pitcher who has yet to see the upper minors. He has some red flags, too, including his small, thin stature and a history of injury. This will be a huge year for him, as he is slated for AA. He's a good "get" for the Marlins, but I'm sure their fans wanted a headliner that is closer to a sure thing. Sanchez has a high ceiling, but there are just enough red flags to make me think that it wouldn't be surprising if he never makes a dent in MLB.

[adambr2]

It's a very solid return for Miami. It's true that Sanchez has some red flags, but as Sveum pointed out, he wouldn't have been available at all if he didn't.

 

We might like Peralta a lot, but I really doubt the Marlins saw him as remotely comparable to Sanchez. Corbin Burnes is probably far more comparable -- in terms of value, not necessarily comparable as pitchers.

 

Stewart is a prospect that Miami ranked higher than other Phillies' top 100 pitching prospects.

 

No, Sixto isn't a Robles caliber prospect and I personally value Hiura more than Sixto for sure, but there's certainly no "Miami waited and lost" moment here. Not at this point, anyway.

[Humans Need Water]

Through his age 19 season Peralta had thrown 113 innings, all in rookie ball, with 158 Ks & 47 BBs.

 

Through his age 19 season Sanchez has thrown 221 innings, most of them in A/A+, with 191 Ks & 43 BBs.

 

Sanchez blows Peralta out of the water in both age relative to level & command (to say nothing of his better scouting reports), which is likely why he has been a top 30 prospect six different times already while Peralta never cracked a single top 100.

First off, you can't say Sixto blows Peralta out of the water and doing so while comparing a 19yr old Peralta vs a 19yr old Sixto. The trade just happened therefore you *should be* comparing a 22yr old Peralta vs a 20yr old Sixto because that's what people are saying when creating similar returns. So lets do that. (and Peralta was #82 in someone's final mid-season Top 100 last year before being off it right away due to graduating).

 

Peralta

age 18/19 - Rookie ball

age 19/20 - A/A+

age 20/21 - A+/AA

age 21 - AAA/MLB (age 22 MLB)

age 22/23 - this season

 

Sixto

age 18/19 - A (18)/A+ (19)

age 19/20 - A+ (19)/injured (20)

age 20/21 - this season

 

Peralta gets screwed on bf with his age level because they list the entire season, last year for example, at age 22 when he was 21 the first 9wks of the season (42% of a minor league season) and Sixto, for example, is listed age 19 (turned 20 with 5.5wks remaining). Sixto is rated where he is for several reasons - the #1 reason is that he throws 97-100 with great control of the fastball. Peralta averages 91 yet his K9 is north of 11 almost everywhere and at the MLB level he flashed plus curve/change he just can't control it well at this point and maybe he only slightly improved that control or maybe his improvement is sizable. Sixto has a crazy low BB9 solely because he controls his fastball, which is by far the easiest pitch to control. You even posted listing Fangraphs rating his *current* secondary pitching grades of 45/50/55 then quoted BA saying what his pitches "project" to be, which is what KeithStone was eluding too saying his secondary pitches absolutely need work but everyone says plus potential...except potential/projection isn't where he's at *right now* so you literally proved his point. Also, he stated a college pitcher that's drafted is around the same age as where Sixto will be this year (21) and that those pitchers this draft will be miles ahead of him with their secondary pitches. That's also true. Go look at the college pitchers the last several drafts who are top picks, given Sixto is a Top 30 overall, and you'll see those guys have advanced secondary offerings already as opposed to being ok with great potential. It doesn't matter if they'll be in A+ with Sixto potentially in AAA (end of this year) because those college pitchers are going to roll through the minors quickly (ie Burnes was in MLB 2yrs after being drafted). Those fangraphs numbers are also evidence to the main reason his BB9 being what it is - his fastball and his control of it and not his secondary pitches.

 

Also, if he's throwing 97-100 with great control and already supposedly has great secondary offerings then why is his K9 in the low-8s in A and A+? Age per level is irrelevant here because it doesn't matter if a 19yr old or 28yr old is throwing these exact same pitches...batters don't see age they see pitches and he's not K'ing dudes while hitting triple digits like Hunter Greene is.

 

Sixto blowing Peralta out of the water is a far cry from reality. Peralta is a MLB pitcher, 22yrs old, has 6yrs cheap control and *far* less risk while Sixto sits in A+ coming off elbow/collarbone injuries. Their values are absolutely in the same ballpark *right now*. You can talk about Top 100 rankings all you want but only 1 of these dudes has produced at a high level at every level in the minors while already making a big impression at the MLB level (age 21/22) and it isn't Sixto.

[Humans Need Water]

It's a very solid return for Miami. It's true that Sanchez has some red flags, but as Sveum pointed out, he wouldn't have been available at all if he didn't.

 

We might like Peralta a lot, but I really doubt the Marlins saw him as remotely comparable to Sanchez. Corbin Burnes is probably far more comparable -- in terms of value, not necessarily comparable as pitchers.

 

Stewart is a prospect that Miami ranked higher than other Phillies' top 100 pitching prospects.

 

No, Sixto isn't a Robles caliber prospect and I personally value Hiura more than Sixto for sure, but there's certainly no "Miami waited and lost" moment here. Not at this point, anyway.

No doubt a solid return. But solid isn't what 95% of this site was saying the return would be. And neither of you dudes have any idea if Sixto would have been available or not if he didn't get injured last year because you also have no idea how good or poor he would have performed the rest of the season.

 

Burnes' value is absolutely higher than Sixto. Again, he already proved at the highest level he can be very good while already having a high ceiling with 6yrs cheap control at the same time Sixto is in A+ coming back from elbow injury.

 

Did Miami say they ranked Stewart higher than the other Philly Top 100s? I highly doubt it given he wasn't even ranked in their Top 30 and now he's 25 in Miami's system...rated 7 spots behind Yamamoto (the 4th piece in the Brinson deal). I find it impossible they wanted Stewart over Medina. They got Stewart as the 3rd piece because that's what Realmuto's value called for...a low level dude who has decent skills and might have a MLB career but it'll take several years to find out.

[adambr2]

It's a very solid return for Miami. It's true that Sanchez has some red flags, but as Sveum pointed out, he wouldn't have been available at all if he didn't.

 

We might like Peralta a lot, but I really doubt the Marlins saw him as remotely comparable to Sanchez. Corbin Burnes is probably far more comparable -- in terms of value, not necessarily comparable as pitchers.

 

Stewart is a prospect that Miami ranked higher than other Phillies' top 100 pitching prospects.

 

No, Sixto isn't a Robles caliber prospect and I personally value Hiura more than Sixto for sure, but there's certainly no "Miami waited and lost" moment here. Not at this point, anyway.

No doubt a solid return. But solid isn't what 95% of this site was saying the return would be. And neither of you dudes have any idea if Sixto would have been available or not if he didn't get injured last year because you also have no idea how good or poor he would have performed the rest of the season.

 

Burnes' value is absolutely higher than Sixto. Again, he already proved at the highest level he can be very good while already having a high ceiling with 6yrs cheap control at the same time Sixto is in A+ coming back from elbow injury.

 

Did Miami say they ranked Stewart higher than the other Philly Top 100s? I highly doubt it given he wasn't even ranked in their Top 30 and now he's 25 in Miami's system...rated 7 spots behind Yamamoto (the 4th piece in the Brinson deal). I find it impossible they wanted Stewart over Medina. They got Stewart as the 3rd piece because that's what Realmuto's value called for...a low level dude who has decent skills and might have a MLB career but it'll take several years to find out.

 

Here's my reference to that point, last paragraph.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/02/the-j-t-realmuto-talks-behind-the-scenes.html

[KeithStone53151]

Here's my reference to that point, last paragraph.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/02/the-j-t-realmuto-talks-behind-the-scenes.html

 

I find this weird. I'm sure Rosenthal didn't make this up. I can understand liking a guy much more than industry, but it's weird to me that they liked him better than Medina and other options. Then again, it is Marlins front office...

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Arbitrary prospect rankings are arbitrary.