Bryce Harper

[KeithStone53151]

Were there people out there that actually believed he might sign a short term deal?...well besides the Cubs fan forums people, who think every player is just dying to sign a team friendly deal with the Cubs.

 

[long ball]

Were there people out there that actually believed he might sign a short term deal?...well besides the Cubs fan forums people, who think every player is just dying to sign a team friendly deal with the Cubs.

 

 

I know, right? I'd be shocked if he signs for less than 8 years. I still would predict 10 years though.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Were there people out there that actually believed he might sign a short term deal?...well besides the Cubs fan forums people, who think every player is just dying to sign a team friendly deal with the Cubs.

 

 

I know, right? I'd be shocked if he signs for less than 8 years. I still would predict 10 years though.

 

I'd be shocked if it didn't include a buyout/player option after a couple years that would give Harper the option to go back into the FA market before he turns 30 - which would line up to right after a new CBA would go into effect. He'll sign a longterm deal but it won't be close to the AAV he and Boras have been advocating for since the day he was drafted - I expect it to be similar to how the Arrieta deal was set up, only having those options triggered after 3 or 4 seasons instead of 2.

 

So technically, it may wind up being a shorter term deal if the team signing him is willing to pay close to $40M per year for the first few years knowing full well Harper will re-enter FA well before years 5-8 or 5-10 kick in.

[LouisEly]

Two of the last three years he's had a sub-.900 OPS. That's just not worth $40M/year.

[clancyphile]

For Harper, I'd offer this:

2019: $35 million

2020: Team option for $35 million/$15 million buyout.

2021: Team option for $35 million/$10 million buyout.

 

$10 million each year deferred in equal payment to October 1 of 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, and 2026.

 

 

Didn't you literally just say, "hard pass for me," because of his injuries?

 

I'm getting old, but I'm not at the point where I am contradicting myself in threads on the same day. Usually I wait a couple of weeks.

 

I re-considered, and decided I was open to a "prove it" type of deal, with appropriate team options.

[HarveysWBs]

Were there people out there that actually believed he might sign a short term deal?...well besides the Cubs fan forums people, who think every player is just dying to sign a team friendly deal with the Cubs.

 

 

I know, right? I'd be shocked if he signs for less than 8 years. I still would predict 10 years though.

 

At this point, I'm leaning the other way. I know Boras is saying his guy won't go for a short deal, but that 10-year/$300 mil offer he supposedly got from the Nats is looking more and more like the high-water mark. He isn't getting the $40mil AAV he probably thinks he's worth, even if the Phillies have "stupid money." Spring training is upon us, and it seems baseball teams are gaining leverage by the minute. It is almost like the front offices (collusion or no) figure that he has to play somewhere at some price, and if it isn't going to be exactly their price, then forget 'em. To be frank, I love it when David Stearns operates this way under historically the tightest payroll restriction in baseball, but when everyone starts doing it, it worries me as a Brewers fan. When the Yankees and Dodgers play Steinbrenner ball, and we play Moneyball, maybe we can compete. When everyone plays Moneyball, we lose almost every time as the big boys get to bargain-shop their way to a championship and still outspend us by 40% or more. These are ominous times.

[MrTPlush]

Harper really hurt himself having a poor year to go with his poor year in 2016 (by his standards). His utter elite ability will still get him a massive contract with a crazy average, but not what it could have been. He is young, but the risk of him being inconsistent year to year is certainly possible and not what you want when signing someone to $30mil+ for a decade.

[TooLiveBrew]

Harper really hurt himself having a poor year to go with his poor year in 2016 (by his standards). His utter elite ability will still get him a massive contract with a crazy average, but not what it could have been. He is young, but the risk of him being inconsistent year to year is certainly possible and not what you want when signing someone to $30mil+ for a decade.

While not infallible by any stretch, FanGraphs' $ values help put some perspective on what investing in Harper may mean.

 

Even with a down 2016, missing a good chunk of 2017, & a bad first half of 2018, his average $ value over the past 4 seasons was $41mm. For the past 3 years (if you want to treat his insane 2015 as an outlier for the sake of discussion), it was $29.9mm.

 

So even just looking at a stretch that includes two or three problematic seasons -- addressing the point about risk in investing $30mm/yr -- he's generally produced that amount annually.

 

And -- not saying you're stating we should ignore his huge upside like 2015 -- in his case I don't think it's wise to dismiss the talent & huge upside as outliers. For all the valid concerns about consistency & durability, I think you can make an argument that he is easily worth a $30mm/yr salary. Which seems crazy, but actually looks reasonable imo.

 

There's risk like any long term deal - even a more team friendly one like Braun's. But if I'm Harper, there is no way I'm letting suitors tell me I'm not worth $30mm a year.

[coolhandluke121]

Correct me if I'm wrong but I don't think he's had any type of injuries that could affect him long-term. I think it's a little too early to label him injury-prone. It's probably a combination of bad luck and putting himself at risk by playing hard all the time. A guy can learn to avoid bad risks without being like Manny Machado though. I remember when Molitor was considered extremely injury-prone, but he had better luck later in his career - even before becoming a full-time DH.

 

I'd easily give him $30m per season into his early 30's.

[KeithStone53151]

Correct me if I'm wrong but I don't think he's had any type of injuries that could affect him long-term. I think it's a little too early to label him injury-prone. It's probably a combination of bad luck and putting himself at risk by playing hard all the time. A guy can learn to avoid bad risks without being like Manny Machado though. I remember when Molitor was considered extremely injury-prone, but he had better luck later in his career - even before becoming a full-time DH.

 

I'd easily give him $30m per season into his early 30's.

 

He had the thumb injury, which you just never know with hand or wrist injuries. It hasn't seemed to be an issue since then, and all his other injuries were freak injuries that aren't any more likely to recur or cause long term issues.

 

I'd personally really like to know what teams are offering and what his asking price is. I'd think this situation was a bit more absurd if he had any other agent than Scott Boras. Who knows what that delusional clown is asking for...for all we know he has a 10/400M minimum and hasn't budged an inch from that asking price. That's why I find it silly for all these players to be crying foul, unless of course they have more info than we do. It's notable that all the best 4-5 FA besides Machado are repped by Boras...and Machado has his own issues of being a lazy "me-first" player and clearly holding out hope of being able to take less to play for the Yankees.

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

With their TV Deal news today I still think the Cubs may swoop in here. Theo has played moves pretty close to the chest the last few years late in to the offseason and ST with Fowler coming back late in spring and Darvish last year.

[reillymcshane]

I'm guessing Harper ends up in San Francisco. No proof or anything, I just think it happens.

 

For some reason, he just doesn't seem to want to be in Philadelphia. He wants 10 years on his deal, which isn't happening for most teams. However, I think the Giants will convince themselves it will be worth it.

 

For the Giants, Harper represents a superstar caliber player that they do not possess in the majors or minors (Joey Bart has all star potential, but it several years away). The club can build around Harper - a process that will probably have more losing than winning in the next few seasons. But if the club plays things correctly, they could be retooled in a few years.

 

For the Giants, they were bad last year, but they had a ton of injuries. Going into 2019, their rotation is questionable, with a bunch of guys coming off injuries and/or ineffectiveness (the likely candidates are MadBum, Derek Holland, Jeff Samardzija, Dereck Rodriguez, Drew Pomeranz and some filler types), but the bullpen was excellent last year.

 

The hitters are aging and many coming off injuries: Crawford, Posey, Panik, Longoria, Belt, Cameron Maybin, Gerardo Parra. Even adding in Harper you have a questionable lineup. But having Harper would be huge for them. This teams really lacks a power bat.

 

In the end, the Giants can hope and pray their old players stay healthy and produce, and with luck, they could sniff at the playoffs this year. But the more likely scenario is that the team falters and the club trades away any decent veterans for young players - guys who can be part of the rebuild.

 

It's not an ideal scenario for Harper, but he seems to want to be on the west coast (he's from Vegas), and this gets him there with his 10 year contract. And for the Giants, it gives them a guy to build around.

 

All just a guess.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I'm guessing Harper ends up in San Francisco. No proof or anything, I just think it happens.

 

For some reason, he just doesn't seem to want to be in Philadelphia. He wants 10 years on his deal, which isn't happening for most teams. However, I think the Giants will convince themselves it will be worth it.

 

For the Giants, Harper represents a superstar caliber player that they do not possess in the majors or minors (Joey Bart has all star potential, but it several years away). The club can build around Harper - a process that will probably have more losing than winning in the next few seasons. But if the club plays things correctly, they could be retooled in a few years.

 

For the Giants, they were bad last year, but they had a ton of injuries. Going into 2019, their rotation is questionable, with a bunch of guys coming off injuries and/or ineffectiveness (the likely candidates are MadBum, Derek Holland, Jeff Samardzija, Dereck Rodriguez, Drew Pomeranz and some filler types), but the bullpen was excellent last year.

 

The hitters are aging and many coming off injuries: Crawford, Posey, Panik, Longoria, Belt, Cameron Maybin, Gerardo Parra. Even adding in Harper you have a questionable lineup. But having Harper would be huge for them. This teams really lacks a power bat.

 

In the end, the Giants can hope and pray their old players stay healthy and produce, and with luck, they could sniff at the playoffs this year. But the more likely scenario is that the team falters and the club trades away any decent veterans for young players - guys who can be part of the rebuild.

 

It's not an ideal scenario for Harper, but he seems to want to be on the west coast (he's from Vegas), and this gets him there with his 10 year contract. And for the Giants, it gives them a guy to build around.

 

All just a guess.

 

I do not view the Giants as a short- or long-term threat to the Brewers' window, so Harper landing with them to me is an ideal scenario as a Brewer fan. I think this is much better than him landing with the Dodgers or Phillies.

 

However, if the Brewers have any interest in Keuchel, the best shot of landing him may be for Harper to land with the Phillies, as it might be tough for them to sign both Harper and Keuchel to big money deals. I think if Harper goes to the Giants or Dodgers, the Phillies will be all over Keuchel.

 

It does kind of bother me that National League teams are spending boatloads of FA money, while American League teams sit on their hands, seemingly content with being mediocre.

[pacopete4]

I think if he wanted to be in Philly, he would have already signed. Seems to be using them as leverage for other deals.

[PDCBalla]

I'm pretty sure Bryce wants to be in Chicago with the Cubs and the Cubs are not biting. Pretty sure Bryce had heard all the rumblings like we all did about how they wanted him there for so long and now that they haven't pursued he isn't sure where he wants to go.

[KeithStone53151]

I don't think the Brewers get Keuchel. I also think Philly are the heavy favorites. I just can't see them getting outbid, and most guys sign with Boras looking for top dollar...not the best fit. It's all guesswork though, if I had means to do it...I would happily put money on a prop bet with the Phillies getting Harper.

[Point Beer Is Best]

And if the Giants sign Harper, we'll likely have to credit Smash Mouth with breaking the news.

[Warning Track Power]

For my money, Harper will be a Dodger and it will be for 8 years at $304 million. Highest annual AAV ever ($38m) and tops Macahdo's $300 million guarantee. Won't get Stanton's $325 million but who cares.

[wallus]

Harper to the Giants or White Sox please. Then the loser of that can sign Dallas.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

And if the Giants sign Harper, we'll likely have to credit Smash Mouth with breaking the news.

 

Hey now, you're a news-breaking all star?

[Warning Track Power]

I don't think the Brewers get Keuchel. I also think Philly are the heavy favorites. I just can't see them getting outbid, and most guys sign with Boras looking for top dollar...not the best fit. It's all guesswork though, if I had means to do it...I would happily put money on a prop bet with the Phillies getting Harper.

I am really buying into the narrative that he doesn't want to be on the east coast and the Phillies will have to substantially outbid the Dodgers or Giants to get him to go there. In fact, I think the Dodgers are his preferred choice but are just a little bit below what the Giants are in terms of years and dollars and that is the only thing that is preventing Harper signing at this point. My previous post says Harper eventually will be in Dodger blue for 8 years $304 million, but I am guessing the current offers are roughly:

 

-Giants is 10 years $325 million

-Dodgers is 8 years $275 million

 

The Dodgers will eventually meet Harper roughly half way and beat Machado's deal.

[KeithStone53151]

I don't think the Brewers get Keuchel. I also think Philly are the heavy favorites. I just can't see them getting outbid, and most guys sign with Boras looking for top dollar...not the best fit. It's all guesswork though, if I had means to do it...I would happily put money on a prop bet with the Phillies getting Harper.

I am really buying into the narrative that he doesn't want to be on the east coast and the Phillies will have to substantially outbid the Dodgers or Giants to get him to go there. In fact, I think the Dodgers are his preferred choice but are just a little bit below what the Giants are in terms of years and dollars and that is the only thing that is preventing Harper signing at this point. My previous post says Harper eventually will be in Dodger blue for 8 years $304 million, but I am guessing the current offers are roughly:

 

-Giants is 10 years $325 million

-Dodgers is 8 years $275 million

 

The Dodgers will eventually meet Harper roughly half way and beat Machado's deal.

 

I get that impression as well, I just wonder how much they'd have to outbid. Would he take $320 million instead of $350 million over the same number of years? Also California has the highest income tax in the country by a significant margin while Pennsylvania is one of the lowest that isn't zero.

 

As much as the Brewers are benefiting from this to some degree right now, I find it wildly hypocritical that athletes so often choose to take less money for other reasons...and then complain they aren't getting paid enough. 2 years ago, is there any chance the Brewers get Moose or Grandal to take less money to play here? Absolutely zero chance, though they'd probably take less money than we were offering to play on a coast or play on a more competitive team.

[MrTPlush]

I'm pretty sure Bryce wants to be in Chicago with the Cubs and the Cubs are not biting. Pretty sure Bryce had heard all the rumblings like we all did about how they wanted him there for so long and now that they haven't pursued he isn't sure where he wants to go.

 

I am pretty sure Harper doesn't live under a rock and has been aware the Cubs don't want him for months now. He is simply waiting for the first desperate team to go above and beyond the others. The teams bidding $300mil are desperate and want to make that big splash. If it doesn't happen (Phillies very much so) their entire off season plan is a failure and they are kinda left in an awkward spot. I think the Dodgers get him, but it would not shock me for the Phillies to just blow everyone away to make it happen. You can bet the Phillies and Dodgers are really nervous right now seeing what Harper will do as it exponentially changes their entire season outlook one way or the other. Heck it changes their franchise forever.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Welp, Phillies it is:

[reillymcshane]

So much for my bold prediction of the Giants.

 

I'll lock this post. Go over to ML forum for discussion.

 

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