To Extend or Not Extend: Jeremy Jeffress

[Oxy]

But it's almost comical to make a declaration one way or the other before he actually...ya know...pitches.

 

He has pitched. Poorly. Against weak competition, 3-7 MPH slower than his peak.

 

Perhaps it is all adrenaline with him and everything will be dandy in an MLB atmosphere. Apparently that's what the decision makers think, but it's hardly comical to be skeptical and want a few more innings in AAA where he actually...ya know...pitches decently before being brought up to The Show.

[brewcrewdue80]

It does seem a little early to bring him back, considering both the velocity and the poor results. Neither one were that concerning for the long term picture, but that doesn't mean that he looked ready to pitch in meaningful MLB games tomorrow. I woulda kept him at AAA until he at least pitches a clean inning.

 

 

I'm not confident in Jeffress, but his AAA results have little bearing on that. I think he's got to get into a big league game, get the juices flowing and we'll see where his velocity is then.

 

He has actually developed into a pitcher, not just a hard thrower, so as important as it is that he works in the mid 90's is, if he's at 92-93 and feeling good, that's all that matters.

 

Though you would have expected him to accidentally get a clean inning in AAA by now.

 

If JJ is throwing in the lower 90's he's going get lit up in the majors. Pitching at the MLB level is not the place to see if you can make a living with diminished velocity.

 

You just ignored what I underlined in italics from poster above you. You're sadly mistaken on pitchers getting lit up in the low 90s. I'd probably venture that includes over half of all pitches in MLB with it's share below 90MPH. Davies for instance is getting it done right now below 90MPH.

 

Putting in games isn't like he's taking a spot of a stud right now at RP. I'd imagine you would be one of those chiming hard to get Kimbrel, simply because the BP needs help. You've gotta give the guy his chance before concluding what you are already predicting.

[502 to Right]

You just ignored what I underlined in italics from poster above you. You're sadly mistaken on pitchers getting lit up in the low 90s. I'd probably venture that includes over half of all pitches in MLB with it's share below 90MPH. Davies for instance is getting it done right now below 90MPH.

 

 

I totally understand that pitchers can make a living throwing in the low 90's or high 80's. They are pitchers who have worked for years developing pitches that can be effective at that velocity. They usually have a plus changeup as well.

 

JJ is a velocity dependent pitcher suddenly being forced to work at a much lower velocity. He might well be able to develop pitches that work, but I wouldn't have him try it at the MLB level.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

You just ignored what I underlined in italics from poster above you. You're sadly mistaken on pitchers getting lit up in the low 90s. I'd probably venture that includes over half of all pitches in MLB with it's share below 90MPH. Davies for instance is getting it done right now below 90MPH.

 

 

I totally understand that pitchers can make a living throwing in the low 90's or high 80's. They are pitchers who have worked for years developing pitches that can be effective at that velocity. They usually have a plus changeup as well.

 

JJ is a velocity dependent pitcher suddenly being forced to work at a much lower velocity. He might well be able to develop pitches that work, but I wouldn't have him try it at the MLB level.

 

None of that can be substantiated until he actually, you know, pitches a game. This is kind of an odd hill to die on.

[502 to Right]

None of that can be substantiated until he actually, you know, pitches a game. This is kind of an odd hill to die on.

 

He already has. In AAA. He's been lit up like a Christmas tree. If you want to ignore the evidence go ahead.

 

I'm out of this discussion.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

None of that can be substantiated until he actually, you know, pitches a game. This is kind of an odd hill to die on.

 

He already has. In AAA. He's been lit up like a Christmas tree. If you want to ignore the evidence go ahead.

 

I'm out of this discussion.

 

That's probably for the best. Your mind is obviously already made up. Solely by looking at stats put up in a few minor league rehab appearances. By a guy who basically had no spring training.

 

All I can say is WOW

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I just saw 93 with nasty movement. Nice first step for Jeremy. Far from disastrous.

[sveumrules]

Was Jeffress more or less of a disaster today than Shaw was at 2B last year?

 

I know Shaw can't play passable defense at 2B because he's never played there in professional baseball. There's a reason guys take thousands of reps in the minors at their intended position.

That's the point, you don't know.

 

 

Shaw will make Rickie Weeks look like Roberto Alomar.

 

This will be a disaster.

 

However, I'm coming around to the idea that Stearns will be trading Shaw so I'll settle down for now.

[pacopete4]

I just saw 93 with nasty movement. Nice first step for Jeremy. Far from disastrous.

 

Looked good to me. Thought it was normal Jeffress. Should help that back end strengthen up a bit.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Classic! The unsubstantiated hot takes are obviously strong with this one.

[coolhandluke121]

 

He's been lit up like a Christmas tree.

 

Great, at least his debut will be festive.

 

Hoping for the best, but expecting some struggles. He has turned himself into a pretty crafty pitcher despite losing velocity over the years, so maybe he will keep finding a way to get it done. Honestly if he's just a little above average, I'll be very happy, because that would be a big improvement over what they've got now.

[Brew crew 92]

I just saw 93 with nasty movement. Nice first step for Jeremy. Far from disastrous.

 

I don’t know what I was expecting to see from jeffress, all I can say is wow, mirror image of last April. 93 should be 94, then 95+ by mid May.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

A reminder about spring training and rehab stints. Don't make any assumptions about statistics. Often the player is working on one specific thing and the team even tells them the results don't matter. JJ could have been working on location for all we know.

[rickh150]

A reminder about spring training and rehab stints. Don't make any assumptions about statistics. Often the player is working on one specific thing and the team even tells them the results don't matter. JJ could have been working on location for all we know.

 

8 years, 10 million..... funny thing, I could see people on both sides not willing to do it.

[Brew crew 92]

What to do with Jeffress?

Counsell’s comment on jj’s lack of velo in his horrible outing against the Mets has me more than concerned moving forward.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

What to do with Jeffress?

Counsell’s comment on jj’s lack of velo in his horrible outing against the Mets has me more than concerned moving forward.

 

JJ didn't get much Spring Training. I think concern is warranted, but he's looked fine in his other outings, and was hitting 93-94. I want to see if he bounces back before getting worried.

[HiAndTight]

What to do with Jeffress?

Counsell’s comment on jj’s lack of velo in his horrible outing against the Mets has me more than concerned moving forward.

 

JJ didn't get much Spring Training. I think concern is warranted, but he's looked fine in his other outings, and was hitting 93-94. I want to see if he bounces back before getting worried.

 

 

I know this isn't popular, but I just don't think he's that good.

 

He's certainly dealing with a shoulder issue, but I've said all off-season, and I think others have agreed(maybe?) that last year was an outlier. He was never going to be THAT pitcher again. So if you're expecting him to dominate like that, you're going to be disappointed no matter what.

 

Seeing him coming back, getting his velocity back up slowly and getting his movement has me encouraged that he's going to be more like the pitcher he's normally been for the Brewers. A pretty good high leverage reliever, but not a dominant, among the best in the league type.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

What to do with Jeffress?

Counsell’s comment on jj’s lack of velo in his horrible outing against the Mets has me more than concerned moving forward.

 

JJ didn't get much Spring Training. I think concern is warranted, but he's looked fine in his other outings, and was hitting 93-94. I want to see if he bounces back before getting worried.

 

 

I know this isn't popular, but I just don't think he's that good.

 

He's certainly dealing with a shoulder issue, but I've said all off-season, and I think others have agreed(maybe?) that last year was an outlier. He was never going to be THAT pitcher again. So if you're expecting him to dominate like that, you're going to be disappointed no matter what.

 

Seeing him coming back, getting his velocity back up slowly and getting his movement has me encouraged that he's going to be more like the pitcher he's normally been for the Brewers. A pretty good high leverage reliever, but not a dominant, among the best in the league type.

 

He nearly came out of nowhere last year to put up a 1.8 ERA and serve as a shut-down, All-Star reliever who was used in a multitude of roles, all successful. I don't think anyone should expect that again. But I think he is completely capable of throwing 60-70 some innings with a 2-3-ish ERA. Given his stuff, I don't think that is shooting for the moon.

[Brew crew 92]

I think JMB has been right all along,and given time, his FB is slowly rising, even if only 1/2 tick every 2-3 appearances. Last 2 outings breaking stuff and command coming around too. At this point I think we’ll all take a 2.75-3 Jeffress.

[sveumrules]

What to do with Jeffress?

Counsell’s comment on jj’s lack of velo in his horrible outing against the Mets has me more than concerned moving forward.

 

JJ didn't get much Spring Training. I think concern is warranted, but he's looked fine in his other outings, and was hitting 93-94. I want to see if he bounces back before getting worried.

 

 

I know this isn't popular, but I just don't think he's that good.

 

He's certainly dealing with a shoulder issue, but I've said all off-season, and I think others have agreed(maybe?) that last year was an outlier. He was never going to be THAT pitcher again. So if you're expecting him to dominate like that, you're going to be disappointed no matter what.

 

Seeing him coming back, getting his velocity back up slowly and getting his movement has me encouraged that he's going to be more like the pitcher he's normally been for the Brewers. A pretty good high leverage reliever, but not a dominant, among the best in the league type.

 

I think this is pretty much it.

 

In 2015 there were 132 relievers with at least 50 IP. Jeffress ranked 40th in ERA- (66) & 54th in FIP- (81).

 

In 2016 there were 130 relievers with at least 50 IP. Jeffress ranked 22nd in ERA- (54) & 48th in FIP- (77).

 

In 2017 he was bad.

 

In 2018 there were 147 relievers with at least 50 IP. Jeffress ranked 2nd in ERA- (32) & 28th in FIP- (67).

 

For context, there have been 1,355 reliever seasons with at least 50 IP over the last 10 years. JJ's 32 ERA- in 2018 ranks 18th in the entire sample. His runs allowed WAR of 4.0 ranks 4th in the entire sample (tied with Knebel in 2017).

 

The odds of him (or anyone, really) repeating that performance are astronomically low. The odds of him being say a top 20-40 reliever in MLB, which is still a reliable high leverage option, are much better.

 

(Added side note, JJ is a great example for how much more noise is present in ERA over small samples than something like FIP which falls within a much narrower band of outcomes.)

[502 to Right]

Well I guess I called this one wrong.

 

 

On the plus side, I like it when my pessimism proves incorrect because it means a Brewer is playing well.

 

 

All that said, I would take JJ year by year because shoulder issues scare me immensely.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Well I guess I called this one wrong.

 

 

On the plus side, I like it when my pessimism proves incorrect because it means a Brewer is playing well.

 

 

All that said, I would take JJ year by year because shoulder issues scare me immensely.

 

I wouldn't say you were 100% incorrect. JJ hasn't been the shut-down high-leverage reliever he was last year so far, but there have been positive steps toward that. Thanks for the man up by coming here to admit you were wrong, though. A lot of people aren't willing to do that.

 

I am skeptical of JJ, but it's certainly very nice having him out there again. Like I said above, I doubt he'll be able to match last year's dominance, but he's been serviceable to solid so far, and that is improvement enough for this pen.

[Brew crew 92]

He’s back! I saw a below 3 era pitcher last night, which would be fine for the pen we have now, super excited to see jj able to pitch effectively again.