To Extend or Not Extend: Jeremy Jeffress

[Brew crew 92]

After listening to Jeffress’s interview with bill michaels, I’m not too optimistic regarding jj. Not too difficult to read between the lines:

 

Velo down

Not sure when he’ll be back

Not enough time in offseason for his arm to rest.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

After listening to Jeffress’s interview with bill michaels, I’m not too optimistic regarding jj. Not too difficult to read between the lines:

 

Velo down

Not sure when he’ll be back

Not enough time in offseason for his arm to rest.

 

If he takes a little longer, fine. You make due ... just as they have. Houser was terrific last night in his first AAA start, and has lined himself up to make an impact either in the rotation or the pen later. Another power arm.

[Brew crew 92]

After listening to Jeffress’s interview with bill michaels, I’m not too optimistic regarding jj. Not too difficult to read between the lines:

 

Velo down

Not sure when he’ll be back

Not enough time in offseason for his arm to rest.

 

If he takes a little longer, fine. You make due ... just as they have. Houser was terrific last night in his first AAA start, and has lined himself up to make an impact either in the rotation or the pen later. Another power arm.

 

Agree, make due it will have to be. Gonna be tough for stearns to get high leverage arm by trade this early in season. Kimbrel ain’t happinin. We have good arms waiting down below, gonna be interesting to see what happens.

[Brew crew 92]

Missions manager sweet said low 90s, so gonna guesstimate 90-92. Hopefully over time he can bump it back up to 94-97. This bullpen could sure use a strong jj.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Missions manager sweet said low 90s, so gonna guesstimate 90-92. Hopefully over time he can bump it back up to 94-97. This bullpen could sure use a strong jj.

 

That's a heck of a lot better than 84. Great first step in his first appearance on a rehab assignment. This is basically his spring training, so it makes pretty perfect sense.

[markedman5]

[82brewcrew82]

Must be coming along as they had hoped.

[Brew crew 92]

90-91 means he’s not ok. Counsell said expect to see him in Milwaukee on this coming homestand?!?!

[TURBO]

I fully expect him to blow a couple of games for us early on in his return... Hopefully, I am wrong.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

https://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=9490&position=P&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2018&end=2018&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=SI&ymin=&ymax=

 

Looking at his velocities from April last year, I don't think its too concerning. Maybe a tick or two slower this year, but he had a full spring last year too.

[pacopete4]

https://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=9490&position=P&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2018&end=2018&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=SI&ymin=&ymax=

 

Looking at his velocities from April last year, I don't think its too concerning. Maybe a tick or two slower this year, but he had a full spring last year too.

 

Thank you for providing data.

[Brew crew 92]

https://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=9490&position=P&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2018&end=2018&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=SI&ymin=&ymax=

 

Looking at his velocities from April last year, I don't think its too concerning. Maybe a tick or two slower this year, but he had a full spring last year too.

 

Velo the same every outing is concerning. Last year he didn’t have shoulder weakness. Lower velo wouldn’t be as concerning if he was getting AAA hitters out.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

https://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=9490&position=P&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2018&end=2018&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=SI&ymin=&ymax=

 

Looking at his velocities from April last year, I don't think its too concerning. Maybe a tick or two slower this year, but he had a full spring last year too.

 

Velo the same every outing is concerning. Last year he didn’t have shoulder weakness. Lower velo wouldn’t be as concerning if he was getting AAA hitters out.

 

He's literally throwing the same velocities he was in early April last year. He's low 90s, not mid 80s like he was in Spring Training. People much more informed on what is happening are making this decision. I suggest we trust them.

 

Edit: Also, pen is looking just fine. No need to overly stress out about JJ not hitting 98 on a minor league rehab assignment in April

[Brew crew 92]

https://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=9490&position=P&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2018&end=2018&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=SI&ymin=&ymax=

 

Looking at his velocities from April last year, I don't think its too concerning. Maybe a tick or two slower this year, but he had a full spring last year too.

 

Velo the same every outing is concerning. Last year he didn’t have shoulder weakness. Lower velo wouldn’t be as concerning if he was getting AAA hitters out.

 

People much more informed on what is happening are making this decision. I suggest we trust them.

 

Ok, you have a point there. As is he’s better than Barnes Petricka.

[djoctagone]

he's heading to milwaukee today.

[OnTheBlack]

90-91 means he’s not ok. Counsell said expect to see him in Milwaukee on this coming homestand?!?!

 

 

No it doesn't. It means he's trying to get his shoulder stronger and is rehabbing.

[Oxy]

It does seem a little early to bring him back, considering both the velocity and the poor results. Neither one were that concerning for the long term picture, but that doesn't mean that he looked ready to pitch in meaningful MLB games tomorrow. I woulda kept him at AAA until he at least pitches a clean inning.

[OnTheBlack]

It does seem a little early to bring him back, considering both the velocity and the poor results. Neither one were that concerning for the long term picture, but that doesn't mean that he looked ready to pitch in meaningful MLB games tomorrow. I woulda kept him at AAA until he at least pitches a clean inning.

 

 

I'm not confident in Jeffress, but his AAA results have little bearing on that. I think he's got to get into a big league game, get the juices flowing and we'll see where his velocity is then.

 

He has actually developed into a pitcher, not just a hard thrower, so as important as it is that he works in the mid 90's is, if he's at 92-93 and feeling good, that's all that matters.

 

Though you would have expected him to accidentally get a clean inning in AAA by now.

[502 to Right]

It does seem a little early to bring him back, considering both the velocity and the poor results. Neither one were that concerning for the long term picture, but that doesn't mean that he looked ready to pitch in meaningful MLB games tomorrow. I woulda kept him at AAA until he at least pitches a clean inning.

 

 

I'm not confident in Jeffress, but his AAA results have little bearing on that. I think he's got to get into a big league game, get the juices flowing and we'll see where his velocity is then.

 

He has actually developed into a pitcher, not just a hard thrower, so as important as it is that he works in the mid 90's is, if he's at 92-93 and feeling good, that's all that matters.

 

Though you would have expected him to accidentally get a clean inning in AAA by now.

 

If JJ is throwing in the lower 90's he's going get lit up in the majors. Pitching at the MLB level is not the place to see if you can make a living with diminished velocity.

[502 to Right]

90-91 means he’s not ok. Counsell said expect to see him in Milwaukee on this coming homestand?!?!

 

 

No it doesn't. It means he's trying to get his shoulder stronger and is rehabbing.

 

Nope, that's exactly what it means. If they wanted him to take it easy and build his arm up he'd be in extended spring training.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

It does seem a little early to bring him back, considering both the velocity and the poor results. Neither one were that concerning for the long term picture, but that doesn't mean that he looked ready to pitch in meaningful MLB games tomorrow. I woulda kept him at AAA until he at least pitches a clean inning.

 

 

I'm not confident in Jeffress, but his AAA results have little bearing on that. I think he's got to get into a big league game, get the juices flowing and we'll see where his velocity is then.

 

He has actually developed into a pitcher, not just a hard thrower, so as important as it is that he works in the mid 90's is, if he's at 92-93 and feeling good, that's all that matters.

 

Though you would have expected him to accidentally get a clean inning in AAA by now.

 

If JJ is throwing in the lower 90's he's going get lit up in the majors. Pitching at the MLB level is not the place to see if you can make a living with diminished velocity.

 

Perhaps you didn't see this data above, so I'll post it again: https://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=9490&position=P&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2018&end=2018&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=SI&ymin=&ymax=

 

JJ is sitting pretty close to where he started the season last year. Perhaps we should hold off on the blanket assumptions until we see how he does.

[502 to Right]

Perhaps you didn't see this data above, so I'll post it again: https://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=9490&position=P&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2018&end=2018&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=SI&ymin=&ymax=

 

JJ is sitting pretty close to where he started the season last year. Perhaps we should hold off on the blanket assumptions until we see how he does.

 

That chart doesn't show him sitting 90-91 with his fastball early in the season. And he didn't start last season after being shut down due to a sore shoulder.

 

This is a disaster in the making. I hope CC has the sense to use him in low leverage situations so the Brewers don't actually lose games as a result of horrible pitching.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Perhaps you didn't see this data above, so I'll post it again: https://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=9490&position=P&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2018&end=2018&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=SI&ymin=&ymax=

 

JJ is sitting pretty close to where he started the season last year. Perhaps we should hold off on the blanket assumptions until we see how he does.

 

That chart doesn't show him sitting 90-91 with his fastball early in the season. And he didn't start last season after being shut down due to a sore shoulder.

 

This is a disaster in the making. I hope CC has the sense to use him in low leverage situations so the Brewers don't actually lose games as a result of horrible pitching.

 

Again, don't you think it may be prudent and appropriate to actually let him pitch in a major league game before you determine it a disaster? They guy hasn't even thrown a pitch yet, and the sky has already fallen? That is just a really, really bad hot take. I mean, every fan knows that your prediction is ultimately possible, but you make it sound like a foregone conclusion. Why even bother watching the games?

[OnTheBlack]

Nope, that's exactly what it means. If they wanted him to take it easy and build his arm up he'd be in extended spring training.

 

 

I guess I don't have the same direct line to the Brewers brass or their players that you do, so I wouldn't presume to speak with any degree of certainty about why the Brewers are doing what the Brewers are doing. I do know that generally when players are rehabbing, they do so in the minors before coming back up to the big leagues. But...I can't speak with the certainty that you seem to be able to.

[OnTheBlack]

Again, don't you think it may be prudent and appropriate to actually let him pitch in a major league game before you determine it a disaster? They guy hasn't even thrown a pitch yet, and the sky has already fallen? That is just a really, really bad hot take. I mean, every fan knows that your prediction is ultimately possible, but you make it sound like a foregone conclusion. Why even bother watching the games?

 

 

No, it makes far more sense to make definitive declarations now!

 

I'm not the biggest believer in Jeffress as it stands. I believe last year was a career year. And I don't like shoulder issues, but if all he had was fatigue, it makes perfect sense he went from 84 to the low 90's and when he's in an actual big league game again, his velocity may tick up.

 

The thing about Jeffress though, moreso than Knebel or some others, he's got that nasty circle change that can get guys out also.

 

I expect him to be about a 3 ER 9K/9 type pitcher if he's healthy. If the shoulder issue was really a shoulder impingement that turns into a shoulder surgery, then all of this talk becomes moot. But it's almost comical to make a declaration one way or the other before he actually...ya know...pitches.