To Extend or Not Extend: Travis Shaw

[clancyphile]

He's the mayor of Ding-Dong City. He's been a reliable power bat for the last two seasons, and came via trade after the 2016 season.

 

Travis Shaw's posted a .258 avg/.347 OBP/.497 SLG/.844 OPS line for Milwaukee over the last two years. He's totaled 63 homers in that timeframe, and played well at third base, second base, and first base. With the Red Sox, he saw limited action in left field.

 

In other words, he is a very good hitter, with more positional flexibility than many Brewers fans (and management) expected when he was acquired in the 2016-2017 offseason. He's also been quite consistent in terms of home run production, and his OBP skills improved from 2017 to 2018.

 

Now, he plays a position where the Brewers have a solid prospect in Lucas Erceg, who's flashing power, but who's also struggled to consistently hit for average. For 2019, Shaw is slated to get $4.68 million at age 29. He is due to be a free agent after 2022.

 

So, should the Brewers go multi-year with Travis Shaw on an extension?

 

Given Erceg's status, and Shaw as a more known quantity, my vote is yes, with a deal like this:

Signing bonus: $6 million

2020: $6.5 million

2021: $6.5 million

2022: $7.5 million

2023: $7.5 million

2024: $10 million

2025: $2 million buyout or $10 million team option.

2026: $1 million buyout or $10 million team option.

 

Total: five years, $44 million, could go to seven years, $64 million.

 

What do you think about Travis Shaw? Extend the Mayor of Ding-Dong City, or Don't Extend?

[RollieTime]

Shaw will be 29 this season and is still under contract for three years. I could see buying out one year of free agency if he is interested in doing so. I don’t think locking him into a 6 year deal including this season that runs through his age 34 season is something we should do.

[clancyphile]

Shaw will be 29 this season and is still under contract for three years. I could see buying out one year of free agency if he is interested in doing so. I don’t think locking him into a 6 year deal including this season that runs through his age 34 season is something we should do.

 

It's five years... buying out two years of FA, but it includes two team options. I modeled it somewhat on Chase Anderson's deal.

[rickh150]

I want the Lucroy/Merrifield special if we are going to go 4 or 5 years with this..... we need a bigger discount.

[Lathund]

I'd be very happy to buy out a year or two of free agency, and having some more cost certainty (And likely savings) during the arb years. Shaw is a really good hitter, fundamentally sound. I expect him to be even better next year. In 2018 he cut his K rate by 4%, upped walk rate by 3%, maintained the exact same .ISO, swung at more pitches inside the zone and fewer outside of it. Basically, he was a much better hitter, but got BABIPd (.242 in 2018, averaged just above .300 in previous years). Good defender at 3rd and 1st, and doesn't embarrass himself at 2nd. He just strikes me as a fundamentally sound player who will be useful for a long time.

 

I'd prefer a shorter deal than what clancy is proposing, but at the same time that AAV is low enough that I'm not overly concerned with the years due to the discount early on.

[trwi7]

There is absolutely no incentive for Shaw to sign a deal that cheap.

[jerichoholicninja]

There is absolutely no incentive for Shaw to sign a deal that cheap.

 

And not much incentive for the Brewers to even offer it. He'd be 34-36 at the end of it. He's a very good hitter, not great. By that age it's not likely he'll still be "very good". If he's only average or worse that seems like wasted money. That of course ignores his defense which isn't anything special right now. It might be bad by that point.

[PeaveyFury]

This does seem like one of those rare cases where an extension doesn’t really make sense for either side. I guess the Brewers might see value in knowing the cost of his arby years, but beyond that I don’t think there’s value.

[HiAndTight]

There is absolutely no incentive for Shaw to sign a deal that cheap.

 

 

That's kinda what I was thinking. This was the first guy I thought it might be a good idea to sign, but if he has any confidence in himself...and I'd assume he would, he'd do far better going year to year. And he's a candidate for a bounce in numbers this year as he was actually a bit unlucky last year.

 

I actually think Shaw's a little underrated, even on this team. I mean...Marwin would look good at the hot corner on occasion vs some tough lefties, but I still think Shaw's a very good 3rd basemen.

[HiAndTight]

I'd be very happy to buy out a year or two of free agency, and having some more cost certainty (And likely savings) during the arb years. Shaw is a really good hitter, fundamentally sound. I expect him to be even better next year. In 2018 he cut his K rate by 4%, upped walk rate by 3%, maintained the exact same .ISO, swung at more pitches inside the zone and fewer outside of it. Basically, he was a much better hitter, but got BABIPd (.242 in 2018, averaged just above .300 in previous years). Good defender at 3rd and 1st, and doesn't embarrass himself at 2nd. He just strikes me as a fundamentally sound player who will be useful for a long time.

 

I'd prefer a shorter deal than what clancy is proposing, but at the same time that AAV is low enough that I'm not overly concerned with the years due to the discount early on.

 

 

Great post. Those were some of the numbers I was thinking of, but didn't want to take the time to look up. I look to Shaw, a little to Braun, and then Grandal to help makep for Yellich who likely won't be a triple crown contender again this year(though still really good).

 

 

 

 

 

Really, the only player I can think of RIGHT NOW on this team that might be an interesting discussion about extending would be Josh Hader. If you wait another year, his price goes way up....but he's also a max effort funky lefty and we've got him for 4 more years. I guess 4 more years of cost certainty and then 2 team options with good sized buyouts.

[HiAndTight]

I'd be very happy to buy out a year or two of free agency, and having some more cost certainty (And likely savings) during the arb years. Shaw is a really good hitter, fundamentally sound. I expect him to be even better next year. In 2018 he cut his K rate by 4%, upped walk rate by 3%, maintained the exact same .ISO, swung at more pitches inside the zone and fewer outside of it. Basically, he was a much better hitter, but got BABIPd (.242 in 2018, averaged just above .300 in previous years). Good defender at 3rd and 1st, and doesn't embarrass himself at 2nd. He just strikes me as a fundamentally sound player who will be useful for a long time.

 

I'd prefer a shorter deal than what clancy is proposing, but at the same time that AAV is low enough that I'm not overly concerned with the years due to the discount early on.

 

 

Great post. Those were some of the numbers I was thinking of, but didn't want to take the time to look up. I look to Shaw, a little to Braun, and then Grandal to help makep for Yellich who likely won't be a triple crown contender again this year(though still really good).

 

 

 

 

 

Really, the only player I can think of RIGHT NOW on this team that might be an interesting discussion about extending would be Josh Hader. If you wait another year, his price goes way up....but he's also a max effort funky lefty and we've got him for 4 more years. I guess 4 more years of cost certainty and then 2 team options with good sized buyouts.

[rickh150]

There is absolutely no incentive for Shaw to sign a deal that cheap.

 

He signs a "cheaper" deal tomorrow and that money is all his regardless of his performance. That's the incentive. He could blow out a knee, get hit in the face, have a car accident, you name it.... and his career, like many, could be cut short or dramatically changed.

 

I agree that he probably would make more going year to year or waiting for a bigger offer. There is, however, incentive for him or anyone to sign a discounted deal in MLB where contracts are guaranteed.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Ask Moustakas how lucrative the free agent market is. Players may want to lock in that long term deal just to guarantee being set for life. You never know what the future holds

[JohnBriggs12]

Shaw got a shade under what Kris Davis got his first year as arby eligible. Figure if he keeps up his rate of production the next two seasons, he'll get something like $23-24 million over 2020-2021. There's no way he's giving up $10 million or so over that time to secure a few more years, none of which top $10 million. My gosh, he's a 4 WAR player. Those guys don't come cheap. He's already signed for this year so would take at least 4 years and $75-80 million for his age 30-33 years. I think the Brewers would like to use that money to help extend Yelich to 2024 or 2025 and are praying Erceg or someone else emerges as a viable replacement for Shaw.

[Nader Raider Tim]

It'd be nice guarantee Shaw some cash through his Arbitration years then have a couple $12-$15 million options. So 3 years $24 million or so with an option where after three years the Brewers can opt in to another 2 years for $24 million. (maybe slightly higher on the option)

[JosephC]

Ask Moustakas how lucrative the free agent market is. Players may want to lock in that long term deal just to guarantee being set for life. You never know what the future holds

 

One would look at Shaw and think he's pretty much a slam dunk to get at least a 3 year, 42 million dollar contract on the market if he continues to do what he's done over the last three years.

 

Slash lines from 2016-2018:

Shaw = .253/.334/.473/.807

Moustakas = .260/.314/.490/.804

 

And both are pretty solid gloves. One might argue that Shaw has the ability to play 2B, but I don't think that would factor much into a team's decision making on Shaw because it's unlikely most teams would be looking at him to log significant innings at 2B.

 

I do think Shaw would be a more attractive offensive player based on the OBP advantage, but I'm an OBP guy and would admit that I have an obvious bias when it comes to that statistic.

 

So while a 3 year, 42 million dollar deal seems super reasonable for a 3.5-4 WAR player like Shaw is...well there is Moustakas with a similar slash line having to play on 6 million dollar deals on a season-to-season basis.

 

If I was Shaw's agent I'd kind of be looking at the following earnings after the 4.675 million he makes in 2019:

2020 = 6.5 million (arbitration)

2021 = 8.25 million (arbitration)

2022-2024 = 45 million (3 years, 15 million per season or maybe 3 years, 14 million per season with a 3 million buyout on a fourth season)

So if I'm his agent, the first number I would throw the Brewers is 5 years, 60 million total covering the 2020-2024 seasons, and would be pretty willing to work down from there especially when seeing what has happened on the free agent market over the last couple off-seasons (especially with Moustakas). Clancy's five year, 47 million dollar offer that started this is not crazy low IMO. But if I was his agent, I'd have a hard time going below 11 million per season...once it gets that low I'd rather wait and just play the free agency game after the 2021 season.

[JosephC]

I think a fair deal could look something like this.

 

2020 = 10.4 million

2021 = 10.4 million

2022 = 10.4 million

2023 = 10.4 million

2024 = 10.4 million (Player option, Brewers pay Shaw 2 million if he opts out)

2025 = 18 million (Team option, Brewers pay Shaw 3 million if they opt out)

 

So the guarantee for Shaw would be 5 years, 55 million. If he's so good he opts out after 2023, it is a 4 year, 43.6 million dollar deal. If the Brewers retain him through the entire length of the deal, it's 6 years, 70 million.

 

Before one says that Shaw is really getting short-changed here, consider that Moustakas has earned about 25 million total in his career so far and might be playing on deals that are worth 6 to 8 million per season from here on out. This deal would guarantee Shaw 55 million, more than twice what Moustakas has made through his first free agent season.

 

For those who say it's too risky for Milwaukee, Shaw has been a solid 3.5-4 WAR player over the last two years and there isn't any reason to think that total will dramatically fall over the next few seasons. As we've seen, 9 million per WAR is looking like an unrealistic number in the current marketplace. But say 1 WAR is only worth 60% of the 9 WAR figure...that's 1 WAR = 5.4 million. 55 million/5.4 = 10.2 wins / 5 seasons = 2.04 WAR per season...Shaw would only need to be about a 2 WAR player per season for this to be a solid deal for Milwaukee. Also note that the biggest single year committment (other than 2025 which the Brewers could decline) is 10.4 million which could very well represent < 10% of their yearly payroll from here on out.

 

I think it would be a fair deal and something both sides should think about. I've pretty much given up on Erceg so Shaw seems like as good a candidate as any to extend. About the only thing I worry about is his hitting against lefty pitching last year, was a problem in 2018 but really wasn't a problem in 2017.

[tmwiese55]

No incentive for Shaw to take guaranteed money now? he'll be like 32 when he hits FA and I'm sure he's seeing what's going on in the market and to his friend Moose. If he could put life changing money in the bank right now he should.

 

That said, if i'm the Brewers I don't really see the point of worrying about this when a guy is signed for 4 more years and won't hit FA until his mid 30s. If a guy is hitting FA say around 28/29 there's an incentive to buy him out a couple more years to his early 30s. But I wouldn't be too worried about a guys age 33-35 years.

 

Long story short, Shaw is another guy who's going to get hurt by the current system of control.

[Ennder]

I certainly would not do this today considering how poorly he hit lefties last season. I also do not think his defense will age well, he is terrible at charging balls and doesn't move to his right all that well. Third Base is also incredibly deep right now at both the major league and minor league level in general.