To Extend or Not Extend: Corey Knebel

[phnxcrew]

I would definitely deal

Him after this season. Establish Williams and houser as replacements. Keep one or two main pieces and turn over the rest. I think Jeffress would sign a 3/4 year deal for cheAp since he only has success here.

 

 

 

Youd be very wrong to use the word "cheap" for any reason next time.

 

Fair enough! You would know lol. I'm simply suggesting it would be mutually beneficial since the large bulk of his success has been in Milwaukee. I'm not saying at his current ~3.2 million dollars, by any means my good sir. Heck, let's start a go fund me. I'll donate 100 to keep Jeremy around.

[RollieTime]

I don't think that's even close to what the reality would be in extension talks. He got over $5 million in arbitration this year and has it for 2 more years. He's basically guaranteed to get raises assuming we tender him a contract, and is probably looking at around $14-16 million over the next 2 years alone. If Corey were to take an extension, you are probably looking moreso at a 3 year extension...possibly 4. Maybe those numbers would be 3/$24 million or 4/$36 million not including his 2019 salary...and frankly those are a bit optimistic and friendly towards the Brewers.

 

That said, I'm not interested in extending Corey. As much as I hate to say it, it looks highly likely that we'll have a 3-4 year window of competitiveness before needing to retool/rebuild. We have 3 years of control on Corey and the ability to back out at any time if he starts to suck or his arm falls off, and if we did have to cut him loose...we could allocate his projected salary to a different, productive player.

 

 

I don't know if I agree on this part....just far, far too many unknowns at this time, but I like the direction we're moving and feel like Stearns is going to keep that window open year in and year out.

 

But I'll just say across the board, I don't see any reason to extend ALMOST any reliever with whom we have multiple years of control left.

 

 

Look at how many guys we've had who've dominanted and then struggled BADLY shortly after. Axford, Kolb(to a lesser degree, but he had a good year), Turnbow.

 

There seem to be about 40 relievers in baseball each year who were great the year before who become terrible and 40 who go the other way. That's a bit of hyperbole, but still. It's just too volatile a job and we have him through him prime for 3 more years. That's perfect.

 

Why take on ALL the risk ourselves?

 

This is exactly why I think we should look to trade Knebel. Relievers are so volatile and teams are more than willing to give up prospects for relievers that have dominant years. There will be a bullpen piece this year that will surprise us and have a great season that teams will be interested in paying a premium for next offseason. Three years of Knebel could really help replenish the farm. Those prospects could then be packaged in a big trade for a guy like Kluber or used midseason for an upgrade. I think we could move Knebel and have another guy step up and have a productive season in his place, allowing us to use resources to solidify a different area of need such as getting a top of the rotation arm.

[rickh150]

He was arby eligible this year, and he is a FA after the 2021 season.

[Tbadder]

It’s all about value. The Thornburg trade continually sticks in my mind. I’m all about trading bullpen assets for everyday assets. I wouldn’t be sad to see Knebel or Hader go if haul was right. I hope Stearns remembers we are a small market and acts accordingly at times. Sell high and make ‘em pay through the nose. No way I’d extend Knebelor Hader.

[KeithStone53151]

I would definitely deal

Him after this season. Establish Williams and houser as replacements. Keep one or two main pieces and turn over the rest. I think Jeffress would sign a 3/4 year deal for cheAp since he only has success here.

 

 

 

Youd be very wrong to use the word "cheap" for any reason next time.

LOL!

 

I wouldn't laugh so hard at that. If Jeremy has 2 more strong seasons and stays healthy, he'll definitely get paid. But that's far from a certainty in this game. I don't think it's wise to guarantee a big payday next time he hits free agency.

[JosephC]

Easy to look back and say maybe Jeffress didn't get what he could have got in terms of his current contract. I think that's a really, really, really big maybe. If I'm a GM who hasn't had him on my team, I'd be very "cautious" when it came to Jeffress. One failed test away from a lifetime suspension. Seemed he was over his problems but then had the embarrassing DWI arrest. People can point out that the team would get their money back if Jeffress is suspended again, but if that suspension would happen in May then it would be a big piece taken out of the bullpen and that season's money could have been spent elsewhere during the previous off-season.

 

Could Jeffress land a 2 year, 14 million dollar deal down the road? I could see that. But I'd have my doubts about anything much over that. Even though all Brewer fans, myself included, would like to believe he's completely over his problems, it only takes one brief lapse to relapse and that could be the end of his major league career. I think with incentives he made 2.25 million last year and if he repeats that this year he'll be up around 3.75 million. That's not terrible for a guy that is one failed test away from a very lengthy suspension and had a very poor start to the 2017 season. He had to have some questions about if he even had a career after Texas let him go, and now it looks like he has a pretty decent chance to put 10 million dollars on top of what he made earlier in his career.

[jerichoholicninja]

Jeffress is not one failed test away from a lifetime suspension. Can we stop saying that. His 2 failed tests in the minors have no effect on him in the majors. Major League players aren't even tested for what he was suspended for.

[clancyphile]

Easy to look back and say maybe Jeffress didn't get what he could have got in terms of his current contract. I think that's a really, really, really big maybe. If I'm a GM who hasn't had him on my team, I'd be very "cautious" when it came to Jeffress. One failed test away from a lifetime suspension. Seemed he was over his problems but then had the embarrassing DWI arrest. People can point out that the team would get their money back if Jeffress is suspended again, but if that suspension would happen in May then it would be a big piece taken out of the bullpen and that season's money could have been spent elsewhere during the previous off-season.

 

Could Jeffress land a 2 year, 14 million dollar deal down the road? I could see that. But I'd have my doubts about anything much over that. Even though all Brewer fans, myself included, would like to believe he's completely over his problems, it only takes one brief lapse to relapse and that could be the end of his major league career. I think with incentives he made 2.25 million last year and if he repeats that this year he'll be up around 3.75 million. That's not terrible for a guy that is one failed test away from a very lengthy suspension and had a very poor start to the 2017 season. He had to have some questions about if he even had a career after Texas let him go, and now it looks like he has a pretty decent chance to put 10 million dollars on top of what he made earlier in his career.

 

One other thing... Jeffress has done well with the Brewers, but struggled with other teams. Other GMs may figure he's a Milwaukee Miracle.

 

Knebel, on the other hand... is likely to be seen as someone who could replicate success elsewhere.

[JosephC]

Jeffress is not one failed test away from a lifetime suspension. Can we stop saying that. His 2 failed tests in the minors have no effect on him in the majors. Major League players aren't even tested for what he was suspended for.

 

I beg your pardon. I have read that Jeffress was facing a lifetime ban in a couple different spots. Did not realize it only applied to the minor leagues. I stand corrected and hope my posts don't cause any further confusion down the road.

[jerichoholicninja]

Jeffress is not one failed test away from a lifetime suspension. Can we stop saying that. His 2 failed tests in the minors have no effect on him in the majors. Major League players aren't even tested for what he was suspended for.

 

I beg your pardon. I have read that Jeffress was facing a lifetime ban in a couple different spots. Did not realize it only applied to the minor leagues. I stand corrected and hope my posts don't cause any further confusion down the road.

 

No problem. I believe the only way he could get a lifetime ban because of those tests would be if he was playing on a minor league team after being removed from the 40 man roster and then had a 3rd positive test. If which case his MLB career was probably over anyway due to ineffectiveness.